Trading for the Final Two Months

This is an updated version of an article posted in 2013.

As we get closer to our league trade deadlines and the effect any individual player will have on our place in the standings gradually diminishes, this time of year represents a final chance to improve our teams. It probably doesn’t need to be stated, but it’s important to reiterate for those still clinging to preseason values. At this point, you need to essentially throw player values out the window and trade for needs based on your position in the various statistical categories. Don’t worry about overpaying if you still expect the trade to net you positive points. Obviously, you want to make a trade that brings back the greatest value in return and gain you the most standings points. But if the best return available to you is a so-called $15 player for your $25 player, it’s still easily worth accepting if you expect that it gains you points.

At various points during the season, I put together a little Excel spreadsheet to help me determine which categories I could gain and lose points in. The exercise helps me identify the type of players to target and which players on my own team are tradeable. It looks like this:

Column B represents the points I could reasonably gain in each category without any trades or free agent pick-ups. Column C represents how many points my team could lose in those categories, again assuming I don’t trade anyone away and my team remains the same. Column D is the sum of the absolute values of the gain and loss columns. I want to know which categories have the potential for the most total movement; these are the categories I need to focus on improving so I could either gain points or don’t lose any.

The ratio categories are a bit more difficult to assess. You could choose to really dive deep by looking at your total at-bats and innings pitched, then picking various rest of season rates your team might post and calculate where your rates would end up given those various rest of season marks. But then you need to also remember that the teams around you could jump up or down, so it’s not as cut and dried as just considering the movement of your own team. So I typically like to assume I could gain or lose an extra point than I might realistically be able to.

I’m in an interesting spot in my local league, as on the offensive side, acquiring a strong source of runs scored looks like my biggest priority. You usually do that by targeting leadoff hitters, but those types steal bases and I don’t need steals. Rather, I could use home runs, yet I’m pretty much okay in RBI! Batting average is also an issue, but over a small sample size of two months, really, anything could happen. So it’s a tough category to trade for. Who contributes in batting average, homers and runs, but that I’m not also paying a hefty price for runs batted in or steals that I don’t need?

For pitching, it’s the standard who the heck knows. Just get good pitchers and cross your fingers. The WQS stat is Wins + Quality Starts. We switched from straight wins last year, and let me tell you, my chances of suffering a heart attack have been greatly reduced. But as usual, the category is very bunched up, so it’s just a matter of getting good pitching and maximizing two-start starters.

After you set up the categorical table, you could then set up another spreadsheet detailing all of your players’ projected rest of season contributions. It might look something like this:

You would project whether each player on your roster will contribute positive (+), neutral (blank) or negative (-) value in each category over the rest of the season as compared to replacement level at his position. This enables you to quickly visualize who is contributing in which categories and how that relates to your teams’ strengths and weaknesses. Cross-reference this table with the one above and instantly learn who you should be looking to trade away.

Trading From Depth

In my various fantasy leagues, I consistently see pretty good players sitting on the bench who in my opinion have positive value and should be starting for a team. Whether the reason this player is sitting on the bench is because he is in the midst of a cold streak and was reserved “until he heats up” (a mistake by the way) or the fantasy owner is starting a better player at the position said reserve player qualifies for, this fantasy owner is giving up potential points.

On the surface, holding onto these players seems like a good idea. They provide a nice safety net in case of injury and peace of mind has emotional value. But you only accrue stats from your active players and guys sitting on your bench are worthless. Why go all season with a $5-$10 player just to have around in the event of an injury? What if that injury never occurs (something you obviously are hoping for!)? You have just wasted an opportunity to parlay your depth into more production from your active roster.

So what’s the solution? A 2-for-1 trade. These are my favorite, though sometimes opposing owners dislike receiving them as they consider it a quantity for quality trade. But this type could still benefit the team receiving the two lesser quality players. By executing this type of trade, you use your depth to improve your active lineup, the group that actually affects your stats. You don’t necessarily have to trade your bench player either; instead, you could opt to trade the better player you currently have active at that position, along with another hitter you decide to upgrade. Move your currently benched player into the slot of the player you traded away and no longer do you have a positively valued player wasting away doing you no good.

I’m currently in that very situation. With Ryan Zimmerman now back from the DL, I am stubbornly refusing to keep him benched, despite his awful season so far. But I have players who deserve to start (well, that’s arguable, as I’m starting Mike Napoli at Util at the moment) at every position, so I feel like a trade is in order. Where do I start? The player exceeding expectations — Randal Grichuk. So the idea is to offer Grichuk plus another player to upgrade that other player’s slot.

But trading is extremely hard and frustrating. Even if you think you made a fair offer, it’s still unlikely to be accepted. Fantasy owners generally grow attached to their players, and if they drafted them, there’s a good chance they value them more than you do. And no one wants to be the chump who trades for a hot Grichuk just to get the cold version for the final two months. So they are afraid. Really, the best way to make a trade is to focus on the opposing team’s needs and offer them exactly what they are looking for. There are no guarantees, but your chances skyrocket when you offer Billy Hamilton to the team last in steals with six easy points to grab.