Tout War Evaluation: It’s Not “All” About My Team

The season is at the one-third marker and owners need to evaluate their team moving forward. In roto leagues, the main focus should be future standings gains. I will go over the procedure using my 15-team Tout Wars mixed league as an example.

To start with here is my start of the week Tout Wars standings.

I’m happy to be involved a nice battle for fourth place after being in last place to start the month around the 60 point mark.

The first step is to look at each category and find out where any gains can be found. Here’s breakdown of each of my categories.

• I am in tight battles with Runs, HR, RBI, and OBP but not in the lead. I could use a small boost in any of these categories.
• With steals, I am in a tight battle for first with Ron Shandler
• I need to make a significant move in Wins and WHIP.
• Just recently, my ERA has become reasonable after being in last for a while.
• Strikeouts are my strong suit with several high inning, reasonable strikeout starters on my staff.
• Saves aren’t currently an issue but I don’t feel secure that A.J. Ramos, Ken Giles, and Justin Wilson will keep their jobs. They might and I could try to move them later in the season. If one or two struggles, gets hurt or is traded, I will still have some production.

Every team will have its own surpluses and deficits. With most of the season still to play, a move now will give the adjustment more time to happen. With my Tout Wars team, two major issues exist:

1. I’m likely to waste some stolen bases.
2. My pitching categories are schizophrenic.

Let me start with steals. Here is the top four in the rankings:

Ron Shandler: 66
Jeff Zimmerman: 64
Joe Pisapia: 56
Gene McCaffrey: 49

I’m of the belief that an owner should never aim for the #1 spot but 11 steals this past week has vaulted me from 3rd place into contention for the top spot. I can battle Shandler for a one spot gain or I could move one of my stolen base resources (Elvis Andrus, Kevin Kiermaier, or Eduardo Nunez) for another player type.

I was in discussion with three different owners trying to work out a trade. I figured the trading would be easier with some teams needing steals to move up and I chose to focus on RBIs. It wasn’t. It seemed like most owners felt they needed to “Win” the trade instead of improving their team.

I made two 1:1 offers to MLB.com Zack Steinhorn (last year’s champ) who I thought had players who matched up with Andrus. Here the players involved and their rest-of-season stats (SGP formula):

While he adamantly turned down Ozuna, we worked out a simple 1:1 for Mazara. I get a few more home runs and RBI and he gets some stolen bases. We both walked away happy and should see our team improve in the standings because of it.

The key point for owners is trying to make a small adjustment now while most of the season is left instead of making huge adjustments later (like over playing for Billy Hamilton).

Moving onto my pitching situation which is a mess of all messes. And I’m not really sure how to fix it.

I came into the season knowing I should have decent counting stats and struggle with my ratios (link $$). I ended up with pitchers with good strikeout totals but they acquired them by throwing a ton on innings (Corey Kluber, Jeff Samardzija, and Rick Porcello). With the high innings total, I was hoping for some Wins along the way which haven’t come.

Along with the few Wins, my ratios are low (last in WHIP and recently last in ERA). Here are the Monday standings in the four starting pitcher categories with my team in red.

I could back down on the strikeouts for ratios with relievers but then I can’t make any progress with Wins. While my ERA isn’t horrible, it’s right at the top of a tier of owners and it will be tough for me to move up anymore. With WHIP and Wins, I may be able to make some progress but I am still a distance from making significant advancement in either one.

The answer isn’t straight forward but I am going to try for Wins and luck/hope myself into a decent WHIP. I’ll go with as many two-start guys with my top starters, while still using the three closers. I have some reservations about keeping all three closers but historically, it takes around 90 Saves for a 4th place finish so I may need all three. Also, they can help with my ratios. I should be able to move one or two at a later date for help if needed.

The one change I’ve been trying to pick up one or two low strikeout, low walk pitchers (e.g. Mike Leake clone) for my high strikeout guys. I’ve had no luck so far finding a trading but haven’t gone into full annoyance mode yet.

This pitching situation has no firm answer. With both WHIP and Wins in the tank, it will be tough to move up in one without sacrificing one the other.

At this point in the fantasy baseball season, owners may be on autopilot. A small correction now can help steer a team to stay away from desperate late-season actions. Good luck making the right choice.