Top-75 Stats-Based Pitching Prospects
It’s time for the bi-weekly look at under-the-radar pitching prospects. As a reminder, here is what the rankings are and aren’t:
Are
- A supplement to Eric’s and Kiley’s prospect rankings. This set utilizes stats, age, and some regression to find potential overlooked prospects before they start showing up on major prospect lists.
Aren’t
- A complete list of every prospect. Some will be missed. I don’t care as I’m digging for one-offs. The most likely reason for not being on the list is they haven’t performed, not played much (major factor), or have graduated to the majors. Major league results are also not included.
- The order doesn’t matter at all, at least to me. Why one person is #8 over some guy at #14 compared to other lists is irrelevant. These top prospects are already owned in most leagues. I feel the order only matters to desperate fan bases looking for some much-needed hope.
| Rank | Name | TBF | Age | Round drafted | 20-80 Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kolby Allard | 1066 | 20 | 1 | 70 |
| 2 | Mike Soroka | 742 | 20 | 1 | 69 |
| 3 | Triston McKenzie | 765 | 20 | CBA | 62 |
| 4 | Nick Neidert | 967 | 21 | 2 | 58 |
| 5 | Bryse Wilson | 963 | 20 | 4 | 56 |
| 6 | Luiz Gohara | 709 | 21 | – | 56 |
| 7 | Beau Burrows | 938 | 21 | 1 | 55 |
| 8 | Jose Suarez | 639 | 20 | – | 55 |
| 9 | Jack Flaherty | 707 | 22 | 1 | 55 |
| 10 | Forrest Whitley | 468 | 20 | 1 | 54 |
| 11 | Peter Lambert | 1014 | 21 | 2 | 53 |
| 12 | Michael Kopech | 968 | 22 | 1 | 53 |
| 13 | Sixto Sanchez | 563 | 19 | – | 53 |
| 14 | Jesus Luzardo | 496 | 20 | 3 | 52 |
| 15 | Sean Reid-Foley | 1040 | 22 | 2 | 51 |
| 16 | Jaime Barria | 654 | 21 | – | 51 |
| 17 | Dustin May | 943 | 20 | 3 | 51 |
| 18 | Genesis Cabrera | 1018 | 21 | – | 51 |
| 19 | Logan Allen | 961 | 21 | 8 | 51 |
| 20 | Enyel De Los Santos | 1020 | 22 | – | 51 |
| 21 | JoJo Romero | 963 | 21 | 4 | 48 |
| 22 | Adrian Morejon | 521 | 19 | – | 48 |
| 23 | Spencer Adams | 1136 | 22 | 2 | 48 |
| 24 | Foster Griffin | 1180 | 22 | 1 | 47 |
| 25 | Ariel Jurado | 1089 | 22 | – | 47 |
| 26 | Brent Honeywell | 568 | 22 | CBB | 47 |
| 27 | Zack Littell | 1015 | 22 | 11 | 47 |
| 28 | Freddy Peralta | 751 | 22 | – | 47 |
| 29 | Zac Gallen | 1033 | 22 | 3 | 47 |
| 30 | Bo Takahashi | 946 | 21 | – | 46 |
| 31 | Wennington Romero | 1001 | 20 | – | 46 |
| 32 | Touki Toussaint | 1056 | 22 | 1 | 46 |
| 33 | Caleb Ferguson | 719 | 21 | 38 | 46 |
| 34 | Grant Holmes | 644 | 21 | 1 | 46 |
| 35 | Ryan Castellani | 1109 | 22 | 2 | 46 |
| 36 | Justus Sheffield | 792 | 22 | 1 | 45 |
| 37 | Joey Wentz | 772 | 20 | CBA | 45 |
| 38 | Ian Anderson | 702 | 20 | 1 | 45 |
| 39 | Roniel Raudes | 748 | 20 | – | 44 |
| 40 | Tobias Myers | 595 | 19 | 6 | 44 |
| 41 | Vladimir Gutierrez | 903 | 22 | – | 43 |
| 42 | Hunter Greene | 309 | 18 | 1 | 43 |
| 43 | Pedro Avila | 974 | 21 | – | 43 |
| 44 | Lewis Thorpe | 728 | 22 | – | 43 |
| 45 | Tyler Mahle | 564 | 22 | 7 | 43 |
| 46 | Luis Patino | 436 | 18 | – | 43 |
| 47 | Franklin Perez | 428 | 20 | – | 43 |
| 48 | Jose Mujica | 827 | 22 | – | 43 |
| 49 | Mitch Keller | 889 | 22 | 2 | 43 |
| 50 | Tyler Phillips | 830 | 20 | 16 | 43 |
| 51 | Ljay Newsome | 1007 | 21 | 26 | 43 |
| 52 | Shane Bieber | 996 | 23 | 4 | 43 |
| 53 | Sandy Alcantara | 923 | 22 | – | 43 |
| 54 | Brett Kennedy | 908 | 23 | 11 | 42 |
| 55 | Bryan Mata | 647 | 19 | – | 42 |
| 56 | Dedgar Jimenez | 1044 | 22 | – | 42 |
| 57 | Dennis Santana | 732 | 22 | – | 42 |
| 58 | Tyler Alexander | 1051 | 23 | 23 | 42 |
| 59 | Reggie Lawson | 716 | 20 | CBB | 42 |
| 60 | Pablo Lopez | 858 | 22 | – | 42 |
| 61 | Luis Ortiz | 658 | 22 | 1 | 42 |
| 62 | Jake Woodford | 975 | 21 | CBA | 42 |
| 63 | Brad Keller | 580 | 21 | 8 | 42 |
| 64 | Edgar Arredondo | 823 | 21 | – | 41 |
| 65 | Jonathan Hernandez | 860 | 21 | – | 41 |
| 66 | Luis Pena | 1072 | 22 | – | 41 |
| 67 | Devin Smeltzer | 958 | 22 | 33 | 41 |
| 68 | Brock Burke | 914 | 21 | 3 | 40 |
| 69 | Jen-Ho Tseng | 1050 | 23 | – | 40 |
| 70 | Jose Rodriguez | 1069 | 22 | – | 39 |
| 71 | Deivi Garcia | 376 | 19 | – | 39 |
| 72 | Adonis Medina | 839 | 21 | – | 39 |
| 73 | A.J. Puk | 533 | 22 | 35 | 39 |
| 74 | Andrew Jordan | 870 | 20 | 13 | 39 |
| 75 | Walker Buehler | 424 | 23 | 14 | 39 |
Overall note: It’s the point in the season where a great 2018 season starts to push pass the regression and new players begin to percolate to the top. Several names are beginning really move up. Here is a look at three such pitchers.
Bryse Wilson (Braves)
It’s like an excess of riches for the Braves with another top-10 pitching prospect. The 20-year-old righty has jumped up the rankings by having his most productive season so far at Double-A. His strikeout rate is over 10 K/9 for the first time while still maintaining a sub-3 BB/9.
Coming into the season, Wilson’s grades weren’t the best with his 95-mph fastball being his only above average pitch. Otherwise, his slider, change, and control grade out as average.
I could only find one report, from the pitcher himself, for the improvement. His change is being more productive.
“Especially the second and third time through the lineup, being able to go through and show them fastball in the first at-bat and the next two at-bats go first-pitch off-speed or first-pitch fastball — whatever needs to be done,” the hurler said. “[The changeup] helps a lot, for sure. … I think it was more of a feel thing. Being able to throw some good ones in moments that I needed them and go from there. It was a good pitch for me tonight and I executed really well.”
…
“The development of the changeup has helped a lot and the fastball has been really good lately and keeping the walks down,” he said. “Everything is kind of coming together and I’m getting used to pitching at this level. I’m getting the confidence back with all my pitches, so that’s been a big thing as well.”
Besides the improved changeup, I wonder if he’s moved from a sinking fastball to four-seamer since his groundball rate has dropped from near 60% to 45%.
I’m was interested enough to check his availability in my deep dynasty league (already owned). I’m intrigued to see his 2019 scouting reports and evaluate his chances of getting promoted to the majors.
Dustin May (Dodgers)
May’s stats seem underwhelming except for the fact he walks no one (sub-2 BB/9 in the minors). Reports have him jumping up the Dodgers prospect rankings.
Our Eric Logenhagen gives him a 45-future value with the following comment.
May is a 20-year-old carving up the Cal League. He’s been up to at least 97 this year, has plus fastball command projection, and a plus slider. He’s a 45 FV with helium.
The evaluators at MLB.com love him even more (55 future value) by ranking him 4th in the Dodgers system and have this updated report on him.
[The Dodgers] had him shift from a four-seam fastball to a two-seamer, which has jumped 3 mph this year to 92-97 mph while generating a lot of groundouts with its run and sink.
He threw both a curveball and a slider as a high school senior with little differentiation between the two breaking balls, so Los Angeles had him focus on a power curve that also elicits grounders and should become a solid offering.
Adding another quality offering to his repertoire, May has developed a hard cutter that reaches the low 90s this season. Though his changeup is in its early stages and is too firm at this point, he shows some aptitude for the pitch.
May’s stock is heading up but probably will not get a major league call this season. It’ll be interesting to see how he eventually fits into the Dodgers rotation.
Adrian Morejon (Padres)
Morejon places high in the rankings based on his high strikeouts (10.3 K/9) as a 19-year-old. Eric Logenhagen just saw him throw in a rehab start and had the following quote.
… rehab appearance of Padres lefty Adrian Morejon. Morejon threw strikes for 2.2 innings with 90-95 mph velocity while flashing a plus breaking ball and above-average changeup.
The right has some positive traits but is too far from the majors to get too excited over. He’s a watch-and-wait prospect for me.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
is Jon Duplantier close?
How is this so different from Carstons fringe 5? I mean shouldnt it have some of the same names, if the FF is mostly stats based too?
Carson is focusing entirely on guys off the radar, where Jeff doesn’t care if they are on a list or not. Carson also goes week by week and then uses the results of that analysis to formulate a list. As Carson often says he is using an approach where he is choosing the players himself and the method is “haphazard”
Can you please elaborate further on how this list is determined? I had a hard time taking this seriously when Adams, Griffin, and Jurado were in the 20s. They’re all having pretty awful years, I can’t imagine how even with major regression they would be serviceable options. Is your model specifically targeting low K rate guys and assuming that they’re going to regress to an average K rate? Those three in particular seem more likely to flame out at this point.
I think I have some insight. For one, it seems he is using their career stats, not just 2018 stats. I have followed Adams (as a Sox fan) and I was surprised to seem him up there, however, if you do take his career minor league stats all together they actually look pretty good. Plus, he is 22 and in AAA. Age seems to be an important factor on this list for sure! Not sure about those other two, but maybe you can piece it together now…. hope that helps
Per @ProspectJesus, Wilson changed his FB grip from his standard 2S to the more traditional 4S at the behest of the Braves organization. His grip change basically coincides exactly with his improvement at AA following his atrocious first 6 starts there.
Thanks, Jeff. A lot of readers, myself included, are clamoring for a detailed methodology piece for the pitcher and hitter stats-based rankings so we can understand them better. Give the people what they seek!
Please explain your methodology a little more. Multiple folks have asked for this with each posting in this series.
While it’s nice to be reminded of fringy prospects there’s virtually no real information here. There is no context nor explanation for any of this.
I have seen video of Morejon, just 1 outing, but he was throwing 95 to 97 with one pitch at 99 according to the radar. Looks really impressive. I know that isn’t enough to jump to conclusions, but Morejon definitely has talent.