Tipping Pitches: Cutting Bait on Three Top-60 Arms
I practice extreme patience in fantasy baseball because to me there’s nothing worse than overreacting on a guy, cutting him, and then watching him get back on track for one of your competitors. However, I also realize that sometimes the patience is exercised to a fault, especially in shallower leagues (10-13 team mixers where the waiver wire is going to be more plentiful). I’m trying to strike a better balance this year and be willing to take chances on available guys, even if it means cutting someone who might get back on track, but just isn’t performing right now.
Of course, to pick someone up, someone has to go. And that decision is often the more agonizing of the two so today I’ve got three arms drafted in the top 60 starters of NFBC leagues that I’m ready to move on from in favor of the latest hot prospect being called up or fast starters with some bankable skills changes behind their run. We’ve already seen Blake Snell, Henry Owens, Aaron Blair, and Jose Berrios get the call. And sure, they could flop and have you back on the wire picking one of these guys back up, but for now I’m comfortable cutting them to invest elsewhere in the hopes of a big payday.
I love strikeouts as much as the next guy. Pair them with a tiny walk rate and I’m going to be interested. But all the strikeouts in the world can’t save you if you’re giving up a hit every time you don’t fan someone and that seems to be the case with Pineda. Last year he had a 20% K-BB% rate, but allowed 1.2 HR/9 and had a .332 BABIP. You can only cry “bad luck” so much on those numbers. There was no rhyme or reason to it, either. He had identical skills versus good and bad teams (using the .500 win percentage cutoffs from B-Ref). For example, he crushed Toronto (2.79 ERA in 19.3 IP), but Philadelphia blasted him for eight earned.
The problem is he’s either really good or really bad, there’s no in between. It’s been the same thing this year. His earned run totals through four starts: 6, 2, 2, and 7. His home run totals: 3, 0, 0, 4… and that last one was against the Tampa Bay Rays (sorry, Jason!). He is just wildly inconsistent and the lows are so low that the highs are just working to get him even.
Using Game Scores as a shorthand, I looked at the most 60+ outings from 2015-16 and found that 89 pitchers had at least 10, including Pineda (who had exactly 10). Then I looked at how many <=45 GS outings those same 89 starters had and found that Pineda had 13, tied for the 5th-highest total. There were 12 arms with at least 13 such outings when accounting for ties. Only one went higher than Pineda this past draft season and only five were top-75 arms:
| PITCHER | ADP among SPs | <=45 GS outings |
| Jeff Samardzija | 40 | 13 |
| Michael Pineda | 45 | 13 |
| Scott Kazmir | 60 | 13 |
| Andrew Cashner | 69 | 15 |
| Alex Wood | 72 | 13 |
| Wade Miley | 105 | 15 |
| Jon Niese | 110 | 13 |
| Yovani Gallardo | 111 | 16 |
| Drew Hutchison | 120 | 15 |
| Chris Tillman | 127 | 14 |
| Alfredo Simon | 186 | 17 |
| John Danks | 206 | 15 |
| AVERAGE | 104 | 14 |
A great K-BB% ratio can only get you so far. Pineda is one of just 13 pitchers with 100+ innings since the start of last year with a 20% K-BB% ratio, but he’s only one with a 1.4 HR/9. In fact, Max Scherzer is the only other guy above 1.0 with a 1.1 mark. Meanwhile, Pineda’s .279 batting average against is the highest of that group by 48 points.
It’s time to Sever-ino ties with Luis.
Drink it in folks, you know you loved that.
I was nervous about Severino coming into the season as I thought his price was being inflated based on a tiny sample of work, especially since his 2.89 ERA didn’t really hold up under even the slightest scrutiny. I wrote this in the 2016 Starting Pitcher Guide:
Obviously, he gets more than three starts before I start declaring how “right” I am, but I haven’t seen anything that has me changing my tune, either. He hasn’t been bad by any stretch. Instead, he’s looked a lot like a 22-year old who is 14 starts into his career.
Severino has a live arsenal and plenty of upside, but he had just 61 Triple-A innings before his call-ups so he’s essentially learning on the job. I will be keeping a close eye on him, but for now, I’d cut him for a veteran like Hector Santiago, who has some interesting skills changes fueling his fast start or a prospect like Berrios, who I believe has more immediate upside.
Of course after I write this he gives up six earned in three innings at Texas and now looks like a much easier cut, but I still had to include him for those remaining on the fence.
“Well at least he had the strikeouts” is how we justified hanging onto Shields last year. His first season with the Padres yielded a career-best 25% strikeout rate, but also career-worst 9% walk rate (double his 2014 mark) and tying his career-worst home run rate of 1.5 HR/9. In short, the strikeouts weren’t worth it, but they were still better than nothing.
So far this year he has given back the strikeout gains (career-low 18% rate), but with only minimal improvements to his walk and home run rates. He has lost another tick of velocity, too. It’s actually two ticks if you compare April-to-April and at age-34, it isn’t coming back. In fact, it’s unlikely that his ace form is coming back, either. Is a high-3.00s/low-4.00s Shields all that special?
Here’s the thing, even a pitcher with a low-4.00s ERA for 30+ starts is going to have a lot of good starts, but I don’t really want to try and figure out when Shields will have his. Maybe he’s a home-only streamer. He did have a 3.29 ERA at Petco last year, but also a 1.36 WHIP. He’s got more name value than fantasy value at this point which is why I’m open to cutting him in shallow leagues in the hopes of finding a more stable arm I can use every time out.
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And now Sean Manaea was just called up. I really like him and I’d definitely be looking at him as a pickup when I cut one of these guys.
I was lucky enough to get Manaea and Berrios in my Keeper League. My cuts were Severino and Fiers. Feel pretty good about it…
Good luck! I dropped Axford for Berrios yesterday and this article convinced me to drop Shields for Manaea.
Luckily I dumped Severino for Jason Hammel before each of their last outings. Doesn’t throw enough strikes and doesn’t have deep enough repertoire yet. Shows some promise for improvement later. The fact that the Yankees are not hitting made the decision easier.
Props for the Simpsons cutting clip. That was always one of my favorites.
Not so sure about Pineda. Look at his career stats, he has not displayed any consistent vulnerability to home runs or a high BABIP. He just doesn’t look like one of those guys that underperformance his peripherals.
And yet, he’s been wildly underperforming then since the start of last year. He was pretty lucky to avoid HRs in ’14 and I don’t really think his ’11 is too useful at this point given that he missed 2 full years before returning
Since the start of last year, so, 31 starts? Not enough for me to give up on him just yet.
How do you figure? That’s a full season. Again, feel free to keep him. Enjoy the mid-4.00s ERA. If he gets better, good for you; but if you don’t think there’s major risk at this point, then we just don’t agree.
My concern projecting Pineda at the beginning of the year was health. I haven’t looked at his pitch data, and his batted ball data looks worse than 2015. But those peripherals….
I don’t understand this:
“You can only cry ‘bad luck’ so much on those numbers. There was no rhyme or reason to it, either. ”
If it is neither this nor that, what will it be? I think this one remains unsolved. (Gut feeling whether he will be worth rostering aside.)
More Ricky Nolasco or more like Danny Salazar? Nolasco never had the swing and miss stuff Pineda does. Frankly, I see alot of similarities between Pinedas last two seasons and Salazar’s 2014 and April/May of 2015.
Pineda backers are certainly hoping it’s more Salazar, but he doesn’t have Salazar’s stuff. So his stuff is better than Nolasco, but worse than Salazar’s. More importantly, his command is far more inconsistent than Salazar’s.
Also even with the struggles, he owns a career WHIP of 1.12, projected by Steamer for an elite 1.09.
Feel free to keep him then! You obviously aren’t ready to cut him which is fine, but I don’t need you to cite the stats. I’ve seen em. I’ve fallen for him. Repeatedly. I’m just done.
The main issue is that Sporer supplied no evidence that start-to-start volatility is a predictable attribute. In fact, it most likely is not:
http://www.fangraphs.com/community/the-value-and-consistency-of-pitcher-inconsistency/
It is nice to see an article about who to drop because there are not enough of them. Odds are that one or more of these pitchers will turn it around and owners will regret dropping them. That is just the cost of business. It will pay off more than it won’t.
Yeah agreed choosing players to drop is tough. For example, is the Ozuna breakout going to have to wait another year?
Exactly. When you drop the guy he will decide to hit. lol
i dont own pineda but agree with Wilmerrr. its basically one season. you can have bad luck through one season easily. Steamer and Zips say different things. perips are solid. it’s clear as mud. maybe he gets better, maybe he sucks, but this isnt enough to make a determination
Again, then you can keep him. But if you don’t think a full season is enough to make judgments, then I just don’t agree with you
Paul, I think your readers understand that they can choose not to follow your advice. That has little to do with presenting an argument that challenges your assessments, especially when you are “legit LOL’ing” at their hesitation to ditch a pitcher with elite K-BB skills.
I don’t think it’s a ridiculous argument to hold onto someone like Pineda with the belief that his “luck” will change. We have seen turnarounds from pitchers in similar situations, like Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy had good peripherals, but poor production in 2013 and in the first half of 2014. He then proceeded to post a sub-3.00 ERA in July, August, and September.
I understand your argument that you can only scream “unlucky” for so long, and I am inclined to agree with you that 31 starts is enough time to see that something is wrong. At the same time, I can see the other side of the argument and I don’t believe it deserves to be ridiculed in a condescending manner.
Reasonable minds can disagree. It happens every day.
yes, reasonable minds can disagree, you’re right. and maybe I should’ve been less snarky, but I addressed the K-BB numbers. Like, we all know the K-BB numbers for him. It’s not a magical metric that automatically makes guys good, though. Sky from Razzball had a perfect example – Ricky Nolasco.
Furthermore, it’s not like I said Pineda is trash. But blindly buying the numbers and just waiting for his results to improve is a bad idea, IMO. I just think you can move on in shallow leagues.
If you want to back Pineda, fine, but bring something new to the table. I’ve seen the K-BB numbers. I was a huge Pineda backer last year. I just haven’t seen the command needed to be consistently successful so I’m moving on.
I agree with all your arguments against Pineda. In fact, I think we’re in complete agreement. My only issue is the tone of your rhetoric. You make it sound as if it’s an easy decision to cut-bait with him; however, you only recently came to that conclusion yourself.
There is no magic number of starts that can tell you whether you can believe the actual production or the peripheral stats. You said yourself on Twitter that you backed Pineda all of last year and into this year. That means you backed him for 27 starts, but now you’re laughing at those who say 31 starts is not enough time. I just don’t see the need for a condescending tone.
Pineda might turn it around but I do think the smart play is to move on in a shallower league. Although it was funny, it was a bit unprofessional to laugh at the “only 31 starts” comment.
At some point, you have to watch the pitcher. Can’t just blindly trust the numbers. Those supporting Pineda aren’t bringing anything to the table. That’s where my snark came from. I shouldn’t have been so snarky, but I also didn’t say anyone MUST cut him. Just a suggestion based on everything I’ve seen.
That’s fair. I was a bit salty, but I just don’t see how 31 starts isn’t enough to make a move in fantasy. I’ve been the ultra-patient guy, I understand the virtues in it. But I’m done just waiting on Pineda when he’s not changing. I’ve watched plenty of his starts.
I deleted the salty comment.
No worries, Paul. It’s always frustrating when you feel you have been misinterpreted and are criticized because of that misinterpretation. My first reaction is normally to be snarky as well – it’s just human nature.
I try to avoid snarky comments as much as possible, because once they are interjected, then emotions rise and that has a detrimental effect on rational decision-making.
Just dropped Severino for Berrios last night.
My staff as of right now (10 team OBP h2h): Kuechel, Archer, Wacha, CMart, Stroman, Corbin, Aaron Sanchez, Iglesias, Berrios
Who is on the hot seat right now in that group? I’m thinking it’s Corbin. Would you hold or make any moves for this group on the waiver:
Roark, Eickhoff, Porcello, Hill, Manaea, Erod, Finnigan, Conley, Eovaldi, Tropeano
Thanks!
I still really like Corbin. I’d put Sanchez on the hot seat ahead of him (though I like Sanchez, too)
Hey Paul,
Who would you recommend dropping of this group for Maneaa: Corbin/Pineda/Rich Hill/Ian Kennedy?
Corbin is one I am worried about… Nearly leading the league in hard hit% (41.5%), while still running a below average BABIP (0.276). He has been giving up more hard contact that Pineda, but getting luckier than Pineda at balls dropping for hits.
Fair points, Werthless. I’ll keep a closer eye on Corbin in his next coupla outings
Wow, I just noticed that Pineda is leading the league (tied with Thor) in SwStr%! What a weird start to the season.
Adam Wainwright, discuss
31 starts is enough to for alot of things but HR/FB is simply not one of them. Funny thing is, the things we’ve seen from him that stabilize around 31 starts all look great. Were talking about 169 FB over 182 innings, a pretty far cry from the stabilization points of 400 FB or 1200 innings for HR/FB%. Think it’s a little too early to declare that this is just what Pineda is.
That’s the thing, who declared what he is? I said cut him in shallow leagues. Y’all out here acting like I said he’s Mike Pelfrey. He isn’t just going to magically improve because of his K/BB numbers. He has to get better. His command is inconsistent, he throws a lot of bad strikes.
The debate is whether his batted ball data will resemble something normal. We aren’t arguing K/BB. Is 31 starts enough to say it won’t. I would say no but I don’t think you are hearing the counter argument. Many of us don’t own him. Nobody is arguing that strikeouts fixes anything. You’re putting out a straw man. It’s strictly normalized batted ball data
Exactly, it’s *strictly* normalized batted ball data. And if that’s all you’ve got, then I think you need to watch some Pineda games. This isn’t just happening to him as an innocent bystander and that’s my point. He’s contributing to it. I prefer not to be numbers-only or video-only, but rather a mix. The mix tells me this guy needs to improve his command before his numbers are going to be indicative of his ability.
Is there any reason to be holding on to Shelby Miller at this point if someone like Manaea is available?
no
You can move on. He, Samardzija, and Kazmir almost made this list, too, but it was getting v lengthy. I’m a Miller backer so I’m staying the course a bit longer, but I totally get moving on.
Manaea seems to be getting a lot of love here. I think cutting any one of these three for Manaea would be a huge mistake. This is not Giolito or even Berrios that you are talking about here – which would be risky in themselves. In reality, Manaea has a history of walk problems, a very checkered health history and a mediocre supporting cast.
Paul,
Thanks for the article.
What range would you rank Blair and Owens if ranking today. My second tier pitchers in my 12 team (deep 34 man roster league) are:
Severino, ASanchez, Conley, Pomeranz, Finnegan, Ray (Giolito and Glasnow in waiting.
Do you like Blair or Owens better than some of the guys above? THanks
Hey Paul,
Who would you recommend dropping of this group for Maneaa: Corbin/Pineda/Rich Hill/Ian Kennedy?
Still high on Severino… still has a low FIP, xFIP, SIERA, hard hit%. I doubt he’ll maintain a line drive rate (33.8%) higher than his hard hit%, and a BABIP above .400. Velocity still good.
It’s been 15 starts, no one is saying he’s done. Learning curve is usually longer than 15 starts, though.
Y’all seem to be equating “cutting in a shallow league” with “this guy sucks, he’ll never be good” and maybe that’s where my saltiness comes from because those are two vastly different things.
This is why I wonder why you would cut Severino for another hyped SP prospect with NO starts…?
Because the learning curve is USUALLY longer. Everyone’s is different though. I want to find the next Thor in a 10 or 12 teamer.
Maybe don’t use “cutting bait” in your title if you think the players really are not that bad?
This entire article and series of comments by Sporer sound pretty emotional and short-sighted. You’re cutting bait on Pineda partially because he’s “burned” you in the past? That’s your choice, but an odd motivator for an article at Fangraphs.
When did Fangraphs become so tailored to 10-teamer advice? Between this today (nobody dropping Pineda/Sev in 12-teamers just yet…) and Eno’s post yesterday (Eo and Gausman are owned in 12-teamers…), it kind of looks like a shift in philosophy for you guys.
Based on two posts? Yeesh.
Just an observation… I feel like it’s also been happening over in the Roto Riteup.
I think he was basing it on watching video and gut feeling, in which case a tiny sample is completely valid, per your own rationalizations.
Great article, I was facing exactly this problem yesterday when I saw Berrios was getting the callup and ended up dropping Shields for exactly the reasons you documented. If you want to help my team out more, could you reassure me on Justin Upton?
I’m editing today’s pod and we discuss J Up so look for that soon
This is the crappiest bingo ever – I’ve got all three dudes.
Paul – would you drop either Pineda or Conley to pick up Michael Fulmer? Leaning towards Conley. FYI K/BB is actually is a category in our league. Thanks!