Three Appearance Fastball Velocity Risers and Fallers: August, 22nd 2023

by
August 22, 2023
Welcome to another automated installment of fastball velocity risers and fallers. For reference, here are a few articles that explain both the process and the importance of increased or decreased velocity when predicting future success:

This article won’t take the place of my weekly RotoGraphs article and will not have much analysis. Instead, it will only provide data tables for your own analysis.

Quick Note: The data for this article is through games played on August 21st.

Relievers

Relievers only qualify to be placed in the table below if they have three appearances in the last 25 days. Though the time range is 25 days, the calculation only includes the three most recent appearances. In addition, I have isolated the table to relievers who have displayed an average change of .60 or greater in either direction (increase vs. decrease). We should take reliever velocity changes a little less seriously, due to the short nature of their appearances on any given night. For example, Félix Bautista often shows up on the “Fallers” list, but he throws 100+ often. If one night he comes out and gets an easy three outs without having to throw his fastest fastball, he’s going to appear as a faller. On the flip side, I would imagine he’s starting to get tired at this point in the season, so it’s worth monitoring.

Reliever Three Appearance Fallers
Name Third recent Second recent Most recent Most recent increase Second recent increase Avg Change
Collin McHugh 92.1 91.8 85.7 -6.06 -0.34 -3.20
Adam Ottavino 93.3 93.0 88.9 -4.10 -0.27 -2.18
Félix Bautista 100.9 100.0 98.1 -1.93 -0.91 -1.42
Aaron Bummer 95.7 95.3 93.3 -2.05 -0.40 -1.23
Sam Long 95.9 95.1 93.9 -1.19 -0.80 -0.99
Lucas Sims 94.8 93.6 93.4 -0.23 -1.18 -0.70
Brad Hand 93.5 93.4 92.1 -1.30 -0.07 -0.68
Adbert Alzolay 96.6 95.3 95.2 -0.10 -1.27 -0.68
Sam Hentges 95.5 95.0 94.2 -0.87 -0.49 -0.68
Aroldis Chapman 100.3 99.5 99.1 -0.45 -0.75 -0.60
* Among all relievers with three appearances in the last 25 days.
**>=-.60 Average Change

–

You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.
Reliever Three Appearance Risers
Name Third recent Second recent Most recent Most recent increase Second recent increase Avg Change
Cionel Pérez 96.9 98.2 99.1 0.93 1.27 1.10
Phil Maton 88.1 89.0 90.1 1.15 0.88 1.02
Danny Coulombe 90.8 92.5 92.8 0.32 1.70 1.01
Jorge López 95.6 97.5 97.6 0.03 1.97 1.00
Andrés Machado 96.0 96.9 97.6 0.70 0.93 0.82
Pierce Johnson 95.0 95.9 96.5 0.60 0.95 0.77
Raisel Iglesias 94.2 95.7 95.8 0.08 1.46 0.77
Luke Jackson 93.1 94.0 94.6 0.58 0.90 0.74
* Among all relievers with three appearances in the last 25 days.
**>=.60 Average Change

Starters

Starters only qualify to be placed in the table below if they have three appearances in the last 25 days and threw in at least the first inning in each of those appearances. The 25-day range should be wide enough to include three consecutive starts, but I may alter that time period in the future. Like in the above relievers table, I have isolated the table to starters who have displayed an average change of .60 or greater in either direction (increase vs. decrease). One final note, I do not remove pitchers who were recently injured.

Starter Three Appearance Fallers
Name Third recent Second recent Most recent Most recent increase Second recent increase Avg Change
Erasmo Ramírez 92.6 90.1 88.5 -1.62 -2.48 -2.05
Ross Stripling 93.4 92.9 91.7 -1.18 -0.49 -0.83
Noah Syndergaard 93.5 92.7 91.9 -0.84 -0.82 -0.83
Chase Silseth 96.0 94.5 94.5 -0.06 -1.52 -0.79
Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 88.8 88.4 87.4 -0.99 -0.48 -0.73
Cole Irvin 94.1 93.2 92.7 -0.52 -0.89 -0.71
Cristian Javier 93.8 93.3 92.5 -0.82 -0.51 -0.66
Johan Oviedo 95.5 95.2 94.2 -0.96 -0.29 -0.62
* Among all starting pitchers with three appearances in the last 25 days.
**>=-.60 Average Change

–

Starter Three Appearance Risers
Name Third recent Second recent Most recent Most recent increase Second recent increase Avg Change
Luis Severino 94.4 95.5 97.9 2.37 1.18 1.78
Patrick Sandoval 92.1 93.6 94.5 0.92 1.51 1.22
Lucas Giolito 92.7 94.1 94.8 0.70 1.34 1.02
Bailey Falter 90.3 90.8 92.2 1.39 0.46 0.93
MacKenzie Gore 93.7 94.5 95.2 0.69 0.80 0.74
Gerrit Cole 96.0 96.9 97.5 0.53 0.93 0.73
Josiah Gray 91.8 92.5 93.1 0.58 0.77 0.68
Bailey Ober 90.7 91.5 91.9 0.43 0.79 0.61
* Among all starting pitchers with three appearances in the last 25 days.
**>=.60 Average Change





 

Comments are closed.