Three Appearance Fastball Velocity Risers and Fallers: August, 22nd 2023

Welcome to another automated installment of fastball velocity risers and fallers. For reference, here are a few articles that explain both the process and the importance of increased or decreased velocity when predicting future success:

This article won’t take the place of my weekly RotoGraphs article and will not have much analysis. Instead, it will only provide data tables for your own analysis.

Quick Note: The data for this article is through games played on August 21st.

Relievers

Relievers only qualify to be placed in the table below if they have three appearances in the last 25 days. Though the time range is 25 days, the calculation only includes the three most recent appearances. In addition, I have isolated the table to relievers who have displayed an average change of .60 or greater in either direction (increase vs. decrease). We should take reliever velocity changes a little less seriously, due to the short nature of their appearances on any given night. For example, Félix Bautista often shows up on the “Fallers” list, but he throws 100+ often. If one night he comes out and gets an easy three outs without having to throw his fastest fastball, he’s going to appear as a faller. On the flip side, I would imagine he’s starting to get tired at this point in the season, so it’s worth monitoring.

Reliever Three Appearance Fallers
Name Third recent Second recent Most recent Most recent increase Second recent increase Avg Change
Collin McHugh 92.1 91.8 85.7 -6.06 -0.34 -3.20
Adam Ottavino 93.3 93.0 88.9 -4.10 -0.27 -2.18
Félix Bautista 100.9 100.0 98.1 -1.93 -0.91 -1.42
Aaron Bummer 95.7 95.3 93.3 -2.05 -0.40 -1.23
Sam Long 95.9 95.1 93.9 -1.19 -0.80 -0.99
Lucas Sims 94.8 93.6 93.4 -0.23 -1.18 -0.70
Brad Hand 93.5 93.4 92.1 -1.30 -0.07 -0.68
Adbert Alzolay 96.6 95.3 95.2 -0.10 -1.27 -0.68
Sam Hentges 95.5 95.0 94.2 -0.87 -0.49 -0.68
Aroldis Chapman 100.3 99.5 99.1 -0.45 -0.75 -0.60
* Among all relievers with three appearances in the last 25 days.
**>=-.60 Average Change

Reliever Three Appearance Risers
Name Third recent Second recent Most recent Most recent increase Second recent increase Avg Change
Cionel Pérez 96.9 98.2 99.1 0.93 1.27 1.10
Phil Maton 88.1 89.0 90.1 1.15 0.88 1.02
Danny Coulombe 90.8 92.5 92.8 0.32 1.70 1.01
Jorge López 95.6 97.5 97.6 0.03 1.97 1.00
Andrés Machado 96.0 96.9 97.6 0.70 0.93 0.82
Pierce Johnson 95.0 95.9 96.5 0.60 0.95 0.77
Raisel Iglesias 94.2 95.7 95.8 0.08 1.46 0.77
Luke Jackson 93.1 94.0 94.6 0.58 0.90 0.74
* Among all relievers with three appearances in the last 25 days.
**>=.60 Average Change

Starters

Starters only qualify to be placed in the table below if they have three appearances in the last 25 days and threw in at least the first inning in each of those appearances. The 25-day range should be wide enough to include three consecutive starts, but I may alter that time period in the future. Like in the above relievers table, I have isolated the table to starters who have displayed an average change of .60 or greater in either direction (increase vs. decrease). One final note, I do not remove pitchers who were recently injured.

Starter Three Appearance Fallers
Name Third recent Second recent Most recent Most recent increase Second recent increase Avg Change
Erasmo Ramírez 92.6 90.1 88.5 -1.62 -2.48 -2.05
Ross Stripling 93.4 92.9 91.7 -1.18 -0.49 -0.83
Noah Syndergaard 93.5 92.7 91.9 -0.84 -0.82 -0.83
Chase Silseth 96.0 94.5 94.5 -0.06 -1.52 -0.79
Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 88.8 88.4 87.4 -0.99 -0.48 -0.73
Cole Irvin 94.1 93.2 92.7 -0.52 -0.89 -0.71
Cristian Javier 93.8 93.3 92.5 -0.82 -0.51 -0.66
Johan Oviedo 95.5 95.2 94.2 -0.96 -0.29 -0.62
* Among all starting pitchers with three appearances in the last 25 days.
**>=-.60 Average Change

Starter Three Appearance Risers
Name Third recent Second recent Most recent Most recent increase Second recent increase Avg Change
Luis Severino 94.4 95.5 97.9 2.37 1.18 1.78
Patrick Sandoval 92.1 93.6 94.5 0.92 1.51 1.22
Lucas Giolito 92.7 94.1 94.8 0.70 1.34 1.02
Bailey Falter 90.3 90.8 92.2 1.39 0.46 0.93
MacKenzie Gore 93.7 94.5 95.2 0.69 0.80 0.74
Gerrit Cole 96.0 96.9 97.5 0.53 0.93 0.73
Josiah Gray 91.8 92.5 93.1 0.58 0.77 0.68
Bailey Ober 90.7 91.5 91.9 0.43 0.79 0.61
* Among all starting pitchers with three appearances in the last 25 days.
**>=.60 Average Change





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