Three Appearance Fastball Velocity Risers and Fallers: August, 22nd 2023
- Using Game-By-Game Fastball Velocity to Influence SP Sit/Start Decisions by Lucas Kelly
- MLB pitching models should incorporate recency, giving us an intriguing ranks update by Eno Sarris
- Baseball’s ‘Hot Hand’ Is Real by Rob Arthur and Greg Matthews
This article won’t take the place of my weekly RotoGraphs article and will not have much analysis. Instead, it will only provide data tables for your own analysis.
Quick Note: The data for this article is through games played on August 21st.
Relievers
Relievers only qualify to be placed in the table below if they have three appearances in the last 25 days. Though the time range is 25 days, the calculation only includes the three most recent appearances. In addition, I have isolated the table to relievers who have displayed an average change of .60 or greater in either direction (increase vs. decrease). We should take reliever velocity changes a little less seriously, due to the short nature of their appearances on any given night. For example, Félix Bautista often shows up on the “Fallers” list, but he throws 100+ often. If one night he comes out and gets an easy three outs without having to throw his fastest fastball, he’s going to appear as a faller. On the flip side, I would imagine he’s starting to get tired at this point in the season, so it’s worth monitoring.
Name | Third recent | Second recent | Most recent | Most recent increase | Second recent increase | Avg Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Collin McHugh | 92.1 | 91.8 | 85.7 | -6.06 | -0.34 | -3.20 |
Adam Ottavino | 93.3 | 93.0 | 88.9 | -4.10 | -0.27 | -2.18 |
Félix Bautista | 100.9 | 100.0 | 98.1 | -1.93 | -0.91 | -1.42 |
Aaron Bummer | 95.7 | 95.3 | 93.3 | -2.05 | -0.40 | -1.23 |
Sam Long | 95.9 | 95.1 | 93.9 | -1.19 | -0.80 | -0.99 |
Lucas Sims | 94.8 | 93.6 | 93.4 | -0.23 | -1.18 | -0.70 |
Brad Hand | 93.5 | 93.4 | 92.1 | -1.30 | -0.07 | -0.68 |
Adbert Alzolay | 96.6 | 95.3 | 95.2 | -0.10 | -1.27 | -0.68 |
Sam Hentges | 95.5 | 95.0 | 94.2 | -0.87 | -0.49 | -0.68 |
Aroldis Chapman | 100.3 | 99.5 | 99.1 | -0.45 | -0.75 | -0.60 |
**>=-.60 Average Change
–
Name | Third recent | Second recent | Most recent | Most recent increase | Second recent increase | Avg Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cionel Pérez | 96.9 | 98.2 | 99.1 | 0.93 | 1.27 | 1.10 |
Phil Maton | 88.1 | 89.0 | 90.1 | 1.15 | 0.88 | 1.02 |
Danny Coulombe | 90.8 | 92.5 | 92.8 | 0.32 | 1.70 | 1.01 |
Jorge López | 95.6 | 97.5 | 97.6 | 0.03 | 1.97 | 1.00 |
Andrés Machado | 96.0 | 96.9 | 97.6 | 0.70 | 0.93 | 0.82 |
Pierce Johnson | 95.0 | 95.9 | 96.5 | 0.60 | 0.95 | 0.77 |
Raisel Iglesias | 94.2 | 95.7 | 95.8 | 0.08 | 1.46 | 0.77 |
Luke Jackson | 93.1 | 94.0 | 94.6 | 0.58 | 0.90 | 0.74 |
**>=.60 Average Change
Starters
Starters only qualify to be placed in the table below if they have three appearances in the last 25 days and threw in at least the first inning in each of those appearances. The 25-day range should be wide enough to include three consecutive starts, but I may alter that time period in the future. Like in the above relievers table, I have isolated the table to starters who have displayed an average change of .60 or greater in either direction (increase vs. decrease). One final note, I do not remove pitchers who were recently injured.
Name | Third recent | Second recent | Most recent | Most recent increase | Second recent increase | Avg Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Erasmo Ramírez | 92.6 | 90.1 | 88.5 | -1.62 | -2.48 | -2.05 |
Ross Stripling | 93.4 | 92.9 | 91.7 | -1.18 | -0.49 | -0.83 |
Noah Syndergaard | 93.5 | 92.7 | 91.9 | -0.84 | -0.82 | -0.83 |
Chase Silseth | 96.0 | 94.5 | 94.5 | -0.06 | -1.52 | -0.79 |
Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 | 88.8 | 88.4 | 87.4 | -0.99 | -0.48 | -0.73 |
Cole Irvin | 94.1 | 93.2 | 92.7 | -0.52 | -0.89 | -0.71 |
Cristian Javier | 93.8 | 93.3 | 92.5 | -0.82 | -0.51 | -0.66 |
Johan Oviedo | 95.5 | 95.2 | 94.2 | -0.96 | -0.29 | -0.62 |
**>=-.60 Average Change
–
Name | Third recent | Second recent | Most recent | Most recent increase | Second recent increase | Avg Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Luis Severino | 94.4 | 95.5 | 97.9 | 2.37 | 1.18 | 1.78 |
Patrick Sandoval | 92.1 | 93.6 | 94.5 | 0.92 | 1.51 | 1.22 |
Lucas Giolito | 92.7 | 94.1 | 94.8 | 0.70 | 1.34 | 1.02 |
Bailey Falter | 90.3 | 90.8 | 92.2 | 1.39 | 0.46 | 0.93 |
MacKenzie Gore | 93.7 | 94.5 | 95.2 | 0.69 | 0.80 | 0.74 |
Gerrit Cole | 96.0 | 96.9 | 97.5 | 0.53 | 0.93 | 0.73 |
Josiah Gray | 91.8 | 92.5 | 93.1 | 0.58 | 0.77 | 0.68 |
Bailey Ober | 90.7 | 91.5 | 91.9 | 0.43 | 0.79 | 0.61 |
**>=.60 Average Change