Big Kid Adds (Week 22)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They get originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in four or more of these leagues.

Batters

Nolan Schanuel (9): I wrote up Schanuel for my Waiver Wire report. The abbreviated version is that the Steamer Projections love him and he has displayed limited power.

Since that point, a couple of items have helped clarify his talent. First, THE BAT X is out with a projected .665 OPS (.797 for steamer). So THE BAT has Schanuel as a replacement player while Steamer has him as a possible All-Star.

Second, he has been the first baseman and leadoff hitter for all three games since his promotion. It seems like the Angels have faith in him. A wide range of outcomes.

Logan O’Hoppe (9): After going on the IL in April, O’Hoppe has returned and would be a catcher upgrade for some team in these deep two-catcher formats. In just 84 career PA, he has a .250 AVG (24% K%) and 4 HR. He provides 20 to 30 HR power but may be a batting average sink unless he improves on his 66% Contact% (the lowest qualified hitter is at 65% Contact%). He’s going to need elite power to overcome that level of swing-and-miss.

Noelvi Marte (9): Another player I covered in detail on Sunday.

Not much has changed since that take. He got in his first game as a pinch runner and stole a base. The next game, he started at third base and hit a double. He’s playing and stealing. Can’t ask for more.

Stone Garrett (8): The 27-year-old remained irrelevant for a while because he was on the short side of a platoon. Over the last couple of weeks, the Nats have let him play every day and his fantasy stock shot up.

While he looks to well rounded with power, speed, and batting average, the batting average won’t likely stay up because of some swing-and-miss in his game (31% K%, 69% Contact%). Currently, he’s being helped with a .375 BABIP, so I suspect his batting average to drop near .250. Think Anthony Santander or Adolis García on the upside, with Nelson Velázquez as the most likely outcome.

Masyn Winn (8): Reading through all the prospect reports on Winn, he seems to have a bright future in this game, but I don’t think he’ll contribute in the fantasy game this season. His best traits are his defense and arm. I’m not sure there are many Arm leagues.

In his 11 PA so far, he has only seen 30% fastballs and he is struggling a bit to make contact compared to the minors with a 11% SwStr% and a 75% Contact%.

Again, I think he has a bright future but it may take a season or two like it did with Kyle Tucker.

Harold Ramírez (6): With Ramirez normally starting only against lefties, it seems like these managers were trying to take advantage of the first half of the week when he was going to face two Colorado lefties. Also, it is possible he was the best outfielder on the wire.

Ji Hwan Bae (6): A straight stolen base play. In just 253 PA this season, he has 20 SB. The only issue with him at the moment is that he’s sitting against lefties and the Pirates are scheduled to face four this week.

Pablo Reyes (5): A volume play since the 29-year-old is playing every day (14 straight starts) with a .331 AVG, 2 HR, and 4 SB in 132 PA.

Connor Joe (5): Another volume play. Normally Joe is on the short side of a platoon and will be getting a chance to go off on some suspect St. Louis starters. The 30-year-old has no upside and might be an option for teams needing a first baseman (I added him in a couple of spots).

Osleivis Basabe (5): Wander Franco’s replacement looks fine with his .286 AVG that is supported by a .421 BABIP. Basabe is keeping the ball on the ground (58% GB%) while striking out 29% of the time.

While the 22-year-old has stolen a few bases in the minors, he has not attempted one in the majors. Again, he seems like a streaming option.

Starters

Ryan Pepiot (8): All signs point to him starting later this week including this quote from the L.A. Times.

That fifth rotation spot will be filled, at least temporarily, by right-hander Ryan Pepiot, who was called up as the 27th player on Saturday and threw five strong innings, giving up one run and three hits, striking out five and walking one, in the first game.

Pepiot, who won a rotation spot in spring training before suffering a rib-cage strain that sidelined him for the first three months of the season, showed good command of his 94-mph fastball and his 87-mph changeups and sliders.

“He filled up the strike zone, got ahead in counts … it was exactly what we needed,” Roberts said. “Certainly, the way he threw the baseball speaks to him getting another opportunity.”

Pepiot’s rebound centers around throwing strikes. In AAA last season, he posted a 3.6 BB/9 and it was 2.0 BB/9 this year. In the majors, his walk rate dropped from 6.7 BB/9 to 1.8 BB/9 (one game, 35% Ball% for a 2.6 equivBB/9).

Pepiot has always been able to strike out batters (>9.0 K/9 at all stops), but if the walks stay down, he could be a legit force.

Bryan Woo (7): I think managers thought Woo was going to be on the IL for a while with his forearm injury. When Emerson Hancock went on the IL, Woo returned the rotation. Woo’s production is not an issue. Removing his first start (6 ER in 2 IP), he has a 3.91 ERA (4.22 xFIP), 9.5 K/9, and 1.13 WHIP. He’s a little home run prone (1.4 HR/9, 38% GB%), so it is a good but not an elite profile.

The biggest issue standing in his way is his innings. Last season, he threw a combined 57 IP. This season, he stands at 99 IP where he has averaged 85 pitches and 5.1 IP per start. With the injury and innings limit, I’m worried about how long he’ll throw in his start and how many he’ll make,

Zack Thompson (7): On Saturday, one lowly pitcher was at the bottom of my reliever list who was barely being added and I almost ignored him. I’m glad I looked. Thompson remade himself in his last few games. In his July 19th appearance, he introduced a cutter/slider (different classifications on the pitch) but didn’t start leaning into it until a relief appearance four days later. Since that time, he’s thrown the pitch 22% of the time (58 pitches) for a 28% SwStr% and 67% GB%. Here are the pitch’s comps.

The comps aren’t as good as the insane results so far, but the pitch has given him a swing-and-miss option as seen by his 11.3 K/9 during the recent stretch of games.

If a team has the space, a great stash.

Bailey Falter (5): Falter was a pitcher I had some interest in if I couldn’t add the guys profiled above. In the 19 innings since joining the Pirates, he leaned into his slider (10% usage to 22%) and moved away from his four-seamer (52% usage to 39%). The adjustment has his strikeouts up from 6.3 K/9 to 8.4 K/9.

Part of his draw this week is his two starts (vs STL, vs CHC) where he passed the first test by getting his first Win of the season.

I’m not sure if he’s even a bench streamer at this point or just someone to stream in a few unique circumstances.

Drew Smyly (5): This add is all about the matchup (at Det, at PIT) because Smyly’s results have been … not good. On the season he has a 4.92 ERA (4.73 xFIP), 1.37 WHIP, and 8.4 K/9. His projections agree with these values. His second half numbers look better since he was moved to the bullpen where he posted a 4.09 ERA (3.04 xFIP), 11.5 K/9, and 1.18 WHIP.

Relievers

None