Third Base ADP Market Report: 12/12/2022

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

 

Top 100 Players Rising

Nolan Arenado (+8.29)- I think the safety that Arenado offers has a lot to do with his value and rising ADP. While many expected him to fall off after leaving Colorado, he has proven to be a workhorse that is good for 30 home runs and 100 RBI. I think the average returns back to the .260 area, but that is fine because the floor is so safe. 

Alex Bregman (+7.54)- After a slow start to the season, Bregman was fantastic from August on. He hit .290/.394/.513 with 10 home runs in that time frame, making amazing zone contact and hitting the ball extremely hard to the pull side. He hasn’t put together a full season of great work since 2019, but the ability is clearly still there. 

 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Jose Miranda (+18.5)- See the article in this series on first basemen. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Josh Rojas (-11.95)- Rojas’ drop has a lot to do with the perceived risk in playing time. Rojas was losing time in the second half before injuries gave him greater opportunities. The Diamondbacks have been rumored to be in on a number of infielders, but it sounds like they are more interested in a shortstop than a third baseman. Rojas has speed upside and I still think that there is more in the bat overall. However, his defensive issues really holds him back and there is a ton of risk here. 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Josh Jung (+10.4)- Jung is going to be a popular player especially if he has a big spring training. Unlike other prospects, I think he has a legit shot at being an everyday player on Opening Day. There is power which was on display when he hit five home runs in 26 games at the Majors. While he showed more swing and miss, he has shown good contact skills previously in the minors. I am very interested in Jung as a guy that has a clear road to a great role in an improving offense. 

Jordan Walker (+22.39)- It is interesting to see Walker rising so fast. The talent is not really in question, but where is he playing? He clearly is blocked by Arenado at third and while he should be able to transition to the outfield, it is not like the Cardinals are devoid of options there either. He has never played at AAA, so I would expect him to start the year there, but he could force himself up pretty quickly if he dominates there like he has everywhere else. 

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 (+13.58)- See the article in this series on shortstops.  

 

Top 300 Players Falling

DJ LeMahieu (-28.84)- See the article in this series on first basemen.

Jon Berti (-19.5)- See the article in this series on second basemen. 

 

Others of Note

Justin Turner (-25.28)- Turner is dropping because he is not signed yet and he had a down year in 2022. However, he actually rebounded late in the season, hitting .340/412/.514 with seven home runs and two stolen bases from July 1 on. I still believe he ends up back in Los Angeles with the Dodgers and if he does, he is a pretty good bet to return value at his cost. 

Patrick Wisdom (-49.07)- Wisdom swings. Wisdom swings hard. Wisdom strikes out. Wisdom hits home runs. That is pretty much the scouting report for Patrick Wisdom. Unfortunately for him, with the Cubs adding players (and they could add more) he is likely a bench bat at this point which hurts his value. That being said, there is cheap power and so there is value in draft champions. 

Brian Anderson (+53.99)- Why is Anderson rising when he doesn’t even have a team after being non-tendered? Sometimes things don’t make sense. Even if he does latch on somewhere, I don’t think he has a lot of value unless he has a full time role.