The Weird and the Wonderful — 4/19/22

Let’s continue on our journey of identifying the extreme offensive performers so far over the first week and a half of the season.

• These hitters have struggled — majorly — to make contact, as the three members of the over 20% SwStk% club:

  Mike Moustakas
  Giancarlo Stanton
  Luke Voit

  What has happened to Moustakas?! He used to be so intriguing because of his combination of power and contact ability. While his SwStk% jumped back into double digits in 2017, his strikeout rate remained in the mid-teens, which is quite good paired with a double digit HR/FB rate. That strikeout rate jumped above 20% in 2020, stayed there in 2021, and has now skyrocketed to an absurd 40.6% so far this season. Suddenly, he can’t make contact. Since he’s never been a BABIP guy, obviously a high strikeout rate is going to kill his batting average. It’s too early to give up on him, but man, he’s quickly becoming useless in fantasy leagues.

  Strikeouts are nothing new for Giancarlo Stanton, but he’s never swung and missed this often! Perhaps even more disturbing is that he’s walked just once, compared to 13 strikeouts. That’s a 2.5% walk rate versus an 11.6% career mark. Strange start to the season indeed.

  Well that ain’t good. Luke Voit’s SwStk% spiked last year over less than half a season, and it’s continued this year so far over 43 PAs. The hope was last year’s spike was just a small sample fluke, so this is one to watch.

• Who has the power (Besides He-Man, of course)? These guys are in the rarified .500+ ISO club:

  Nolan Arenado
  Seiya Suzuki

  Nolan Arenado screams “who needs Coors Field to post an elite ISO?!”. Last year, he posted an ISO just below his career mark in his first season on the Cardinals, but his HR/FB rate was down a bit more. This year, he has posted elite skills and hit a huge number of fly balls. At age 31, and in a pitcher friendly ballpark, I highly doubt he’s ready for a new level of performance, so this is more than likely just a hot streak.

  I discussed Seiya Suzuki yesterday, and this is a reminder of how awesome he’s been so far. It’s hilarious that he hasn’t batted higher than fifth so far. I’m guessing the excuse would be to “take the pressure off” or some BS, as if he would fall apart at the plate if he was hitting higher in the order and getting more PAs.

• These hitters’ balls in play are finding every single hole as members of the .500+ BABIP club:

  Ji-Man Choi
  Austin Meadows
  Owen Miller
  Ke’Bryan Hayes
  Eric Hosmer
  Matt Olson
  Ian Happ

  It’s really funny to me that a .615 BABIP is what’s making fantasy owners pick up Ji-Man Choi. Really? If you had no interest in Choi during the draft, why would a fast start, partially driven by an absurd BABIP, change your mind about his 2022 performance?

  Owen Miller, too, has become a hot commodity, and while he does have two homers, much of the excitement is thanks to a .545 BABIP. Without much speed, and probably average power, he’s not clearly a shallow mixed league option. It will really help if he gets back to his Double-A and earlier strikeout rate level, rather than his Triple-A and last year’s MLB marks. Playing time will also be an issue once he cools off as the Guardians could easily switch back to Bobby Bradley at first base.

  The handful of steals Ke’Bryan Hayes has been providing is great, but we need to see if his power rebounds off last year’s decline that was likely impacted by injury. He’ll need that power as he hits in one of the projected weakest offenses in baseball.

• These hitters just can’t get their batted balls to fall in for hits. I present to you the sub-.100 BABIP club:

  Tommy Pham
  Miguel Sano
  Kyle Tucker
  Carlos Santana
  Christian Walker

  Your buy low list? Owen Miller for Kyle Tucker?! Tommy Pham has posted the league’s worst BABIP with an impossible .050 mark, which could make him an acquisition target, especially in OBP leagues. With strikeout rates always hovering in the mid-30% range, Miguel Sano cannot afford to post a low BABIP, or he’ll be in danger of breaching the Mendoza Line (sub-.200 average). His strikeout rate actually sits at a career low right now below 30% for the first time, but his power is down over this small sample.

  Last year, Kyle Tucker also started slow and he appeared in every single one of my trade target articles. Sure enough, he had a big second half. Here we go again, with his balls in play refusing to fall in for hits, though his HR/FB rate has been in line.

  Carlos Santana has walked significantly more often than he has struck out, but he’s hitting with no power and balls in play are finding gloves. That might be because he’s stopped hitting line drives and popping up everything. I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets DFA’d at some point if he doesn’t turn things around.

  If Christian Walker’s 20% HR/FB rate doesn’t come back, he’s replacement level in shallower leagues.