The Two Month BABIP Underachievers

by
June 6, 2017

Yesterday, I discussed a swath of hitters whose BABIP marks sit significantly higher than their xBABIP. Today, it’s time to look at the underachiever list, which is probably more actionable than the overachievers. Let’s take a gander.

BABIP Underachievers
Name LD% True FB% True IFFB% Hard% Spd Pull GB While Shifted% % BIP Shifted BABIP xBABIP BABIP-xBABIP
Nick Castellanos 25.2% 34.4% 0.0% 48.3% 5.6 5.6% 24.7% 0.281 0.378 -0.097
Jose Reyes 19.3% 32.9% 7.5% 25.9% 7.1 0.7% 9.9% 0.205 0.284 -0.079
Dansby Swanson 20.0% 30.0% 1.4% 30.7% 2.7 0.0% 0.8% 0.237 0.308 -0.071
Dexter Fowler 18.7% 38.8% 2.2% 38.1% 7.0 2.6% 17.8% 0.252 0.323 -0.071
Matt Carpenter 23.2% 45.6% 3.2% 42.5% 3.2 10.6% 68.4% 0.237 0.306 -0.069
Maikel Franco 21.7% 29.8% 2.5% 32.9% 1.0 7.8% 27.0% 0.227 0.296 -0.069
Miguel Cabrera 31.4% 33.1% 0.0% 48.8% 1.1 1.6% 13.8% 0.328 0.388 -0.060
Khris Davis 16.3% 41.8% 0.8% 46.5% 2.9 7.7% 31.8% 0.250 0.308 -0.058
Scott Schebler 15.3% 38.9% 3.5% 42.5% 2.9 15.4% 62.8% 0.223 0.276 -0.053
Brett Gardner 23.6% 36.8% 0.7% 37.6% 5.7 0.0% 1.6% 0.294 0.347 -0.053
Todd Frazier 17.6% 40.0% 6.4% 30.4% 3.7 8.7% 31.1% 0.205 0.254 -0.049
Matt Joyce 16.4% 40.5% 0.9% 34.5% 2.1 18.3% 75.0% 0.211 0.260 -0.049
Andrew McCutchen 17.3% 40.2% 1.8% 35.2% 5.1 7.2% 21.2% 0.248 0.293 -0.045
Alcides Escobar 19.0% 37.5% 3.6% 25.1% 2.6 1.4% 3.5% 0.222 0.267 -0.045
Yadier Molina 21.0% 29.6% 6.2% 33.7% 3.3 1.5% 5.3% 0.256 0.301 -0.045
Cameron Maybin 17.9% 22.0% 1.6% 29.8% 7.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.289 0.331 -0.042
Alex Gordon 18.9% 25.0% 2.3% 27.8% 1.7 23.9% 78.5% 0.218 0.259 -0.041
Edwin Encarnacion 25.2% 30.3% 3.0% 40.7% 2.1 14.9% 64.8% 0.280 0.321 -0.041
Ryan Schimpf 16.7% 52.1% 12.5% 27.1% 1.1 8.4% 78.0% 0.146 0.186 -0.040
Josh Bell 14.5% 28.9% 2.8% 29.7% 2.4 5.3% 22.6% 0.231 0.271 -0.040

In the comments yesterday, it was predictably mentioned that the guys on the overachiever list were some of the hardest hitters out there. Guess what…the top 20 underachievers have posted an identical unweighted Hard% as the overachievers of 35.4%!

Is anyone surprised to find Nick Castellanos atop a “bad luck” list? He was second on my HR/FB rate surgers list posted a couple of weeks ago as well! Is he officially the unluckiest hitter in all the land? He may very well be. Consider — he has yet to hit a pop-up all season, has hit liners at an excellent 25.2% clip, and his Hard% ranks fourth highest among qualified hitters! Since he should come super cheap, unless his owner is also a RotoGraphs reader, he makes for an ideal acquisition target regardless of league type.

Dansby Swanson is a good example of a hitter who despite seemingly possessing batting average upside, doesn’t really do much to get excited about right now. While he should reach double digits in homers, he’s not going to be more than a teens guy, and he’s attempted just one steal. Stay the course in NL-Only leagues, and by all means trade for him if he’s super cheap, but he’s just not an intriguing fantasy option right now.

Matt Carpenter’s is facing the shift more than ever before, though it’s only a marginal jump from last year. The only real problem here is that he has become an extreme fly ball hitter. Though, he stills hits his liners and doesn’t pop up too much, so however you slice it, he has no business BABIPing just .237. He’s doing everything else you would expect, so if you sense his owner is getting annoyed by the average, pounce.

After looking at the stats, I guess it isn’t so crazy to think Maikel Franco is deserving of a demotion. When you play below average defense, you need to contribute even more offensively, and since he doesn’t walk his production is very BABIP driven, something he hasn’t proven he’s good at boosting. Interestingly, he has posted a higher xBABIP than in 2015 and 2016, which is primarily due to a huge reduction in pop-ups. That’s a good sign if he could sustain it and his BABIP should rise soon enough to keep him in the Majors. It still doesn’t make him much of a buy candidate though.

Miguel Cabrera is 34, so anytime we decline from an aging superstar, we always have to wonder if this is the beginning of the end. A career high Hard% screams NO, while his batted ball profile remains sterling with an over 30% liner rate and nary a pop-up. And although his HR/FB rate is down, his 14% Brls/BBE also screams fluke, and that home run power is going to return. The only minor red flag is his highest SwStk% since 2008, which has led to the highest strikeout rate since 2004, his first full season. But still, the jump in strikeout rate isn’t dramatic, just a small increase. It’s easy for an owner to be convinced he’s in decline, so Cabrera might be more attainable than you think. I’m buying.

It’s clear that BABIP ain’t Todd Frazier’s thing, as he hits lots of fly balls, lots of pop-ups, and not enough line drives. But no one is bad enough to sustain a .205 BABIP. While he’s hit better lately, his overall season line still looks ugly, which means he could come cheap in a trade (I actually traded for him myself a couple of weeks ago).

Gone are the days when Andrew McCutchen would BABIP well over .300, and deserve it too. His xBABIP fell below .300 for the first time last year, and it remains there again. That said, his speed has returned, so he doesn’t need to hit over .290 to be a valuable fantasy player.

I just wanted to end this by pointing out not that Ryan Schimpf has technically been unlucky by xBABIP, but that even with neutral luck, his BABIP would still be just .186! Could you believe that a Major League regular’s true talent BABIP level right now may very well be under .200? Crazy that Schimpf is. Can we put together a team of just Schimpfs and Joey Gallos? They are literally the same player. It would be the four true outcome team — walk, strikeout, fly ball, or pop-up! FUN!





 

Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

29 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Francis C.
6 years ago

Interesting that Matt Carpenter has a .306 xBABIP despite all the fly balls and drop in line drive rate. Andrew Perpetua’s xStats actually has him down for a .271 xBABIP. When you look at his detailed breakdown of batted ball information, Carpenter is hitting 1.8% less low drives, 2.4% less high drives, 0.1% more fly balls, and 7.2% more Popups! There’s the main culprit. So 4.2% less line drives and 7.2% more popups. Not good.

3
Dan Greermember
6 years ago
Reply to  Francis C.

Carpenter is too good of a hitter to keep this up. I suspect his BABIP will be .290+ going forward, unless he’s actually still injured.

1
Tulip_Bluesmember
6 years ago
Reply to  Dan Greer

I realize this is cherry picking, but I noticed three at bats over the weekend and a fly ball last night where Carpenter had a chance to drive the ball. He simply can’t put any power into his swing right now, which suggests his oblique is still an issue. I’d be looking to sell in leagues I have him in.

3
Francis C.
6 years ago
Reply to  Tulip_Blues

Agreed. I think he is still injured. If you look at his 2nd half last season, this is almost a straight up continuation of it. Oblique injuries linger.

0