The Two Month BABIP Underachievers
Yesterday, I discussed a swath of hitters whose BABIP marks sit significantly higher than their xBABIP. Today, it’s time to look at the underachiever list, which is probably more actionable than the overachievers. Let’s take a gander.
| Name | LD% | True FB% | True IFFB% | Hard% | Spd | Pull GB While Shifted% | % BIP Shifted | BABIP | xBABIP | BABIP-xBABIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos | 25.2% | 34.4% | 0.0% | 48.3% | 5.6 | 5.6% | 24.7% | 0.281 | 0.378 | -0.097 |
| Jose Reyes | 19.3% | 32.9% | 7.5% | 25.9% | 7.1 | 0.7% | 9.9% | 0.205 | 0.284 | -0.079 |
| Dansby Swanson | 20.0% | 30.0% | 1.4% | 30.7% | 2.7 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.237 | 0.308 | -0.071 |
| Dexter Fowler | 18.7% | 38.8% | 2.2% | 38.1% | 7.0 | 2.6% | 17.8% | 0.252 | 0.323 | -0.071 |
| Matt Carpenter | 23.2% | 45.6% | 3.2% | 42.5% | 3.2 | 10.6% | 68.4% | 0.237 | 0.306 | -0.069 |
| Maikel Franco | 21.7% | 29.8% | 2.5% | 32.9% | 1.0 | 7.8% | 27.0% | 0.227 | 0.296 | -0.069 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 31.4% | 33.1% | 0.0% | 48.8% | 1.1 | 1.6% | 13.8% | 0.328 | 0.388 | -0.060 |
| Khris Davis | 16.3% | 41.8% | 0.8% | 46.5% | 2.9 | 7.7% | 31.8% | 0.250 | 0.308 | -0.058 |
| Scott Schebler | 15.3% | 38.9% | 3.5% | 42.5% | 2.9 | 15.4% | 62.8% | 0.223 | 0.276 | -0.053 |
| Brett Gardner | 23.6% | 36.8% | 0.7% | 37.6% | 5.7 | 0.0% | 1.6% | 0.294 | 0.347 | -0.053 |
| Todd Frazier | 17.6% | 40.0% | 6.4% | 30.4% | 3.7 | 8.7% | 31.1% | 0.205 | 0.254 | -0.049 |
| Matt Joyce | 16.4% | 40.5% | 0.9% | 34.5% | 2.1 | 18.3% | 75.0% | 0.211 | 0.260 | -0.049 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 17.3% | 40.2% | 1.8% | 35.2% | 5.1 | 7.2% | 21.2% | 0.248 | 0.293 | -0.045 |
| Alcides Escobar | 19.0% | 37.5% | 3.6% | 25.1% | 2.6 | 1.4% | 3.5% | 0.222 | 0.267 | -0.045 |
| Yadier Molina | 21.0% | 29.6% | 6.2% | 33.7% | 3.3 | 1.5% | 5.3% | 0.256 | 0.301 | -0.045 |
| Cameron Maybin | 17.9% | 22.0% | 1.6% | 29.8% | 7.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.289 | 0.331 | -0.042 |
| Alex Gordon | 18.9% | 25.0% | 2.3% | 27.8% | 1.7 | 23.9% | 78.5% | 0.218 | 0.259 | -0.041 |
| Edwin Encarnacion | 25.2% | 30.3% | 3.0% | 40.7% | 2.1 | 14.9% | 64.8% | 0.280 | 0.321 | -0.041 |
| Ryan Schimpf | 16.7% | 52.1% | 12.5% | 27.1% | 1.1 | 8.4% | 78.0% | 0.146 | 0.186 | -0.040 |
| Josh Bell | 14.5% | 28.9% | 2.8% | 29.7% | 2.4 | 5.3% | 22.6% | 0.231 | 0.271 | -0.040 |
In the comments yesterday, it was predictably mentioned that the guys on the overachiever list were some of the hardest hitters out there. Guess what…the top 20 underachievers have posted an identical unweighted Hard% as the overachievers of 35.4%!
Is anyone surprised to find Nick Castellanos atop a “bad luck” list? He was second on my HR/FB rate surgers list posted a couple of weeks ago as well! Is he officially the unluckiest hitter in all the land? He may very well be. Consider — he has yet to hit a pop-up all season, has hit liners at an excellent 25.2% clip, and his Hard% ranks fourth highest among qualified hitters! Since he should come super cheap, unless his owner is also a RotoGraphs reader, he makes for an ideal acquisition target regardless of league type.
Dansby Swanson is a good example of a hitter who despite seemingly possessing batting average upside, doesn’t really do much to get excited about right now. While he should reach double digits in homers, he’s not going to be more than a teens guy, and he’s attempted just one steal. Stay the course in NL-Only leagues, and by all means trade for him if he’s super cheap, but he’s just not an intriguing fantasy option right now.
Matt Carpenter’s is facing the shift more than ever before, though it’s only a marginal jump from last year. The only real problem here is that he has become an extreme fly ball hitter. Though, he stills hits his liners and doesn’t pop up too much, so however you slice it, he has no business BABIPing just .237. He’s doing everything else you would expect, so if you sense his owner is getting annoyed by the average, pounce.
After looking at the stats, I guess it isn’t so crazy to think Maikel Franco is deserving of a demotion. When you play below average defense, you need to contribute even more offensively, and since he doesn’t walk his production is very BABIP driven, something he hasn’t proven he’s good at boosting. Interestingly, he has posted a higher xBABIP than in 2015 and 2016, which is primarily due to a huge reduction in pop-ups. That’s a good sign if he could sustain it and his BABIP should rise soon enough to keep him in the Majors. It still doesn’t make him much of a buy candidate though.
Miguel Cabrera is 34, so anytime we decline from an aging superstar, we always have to wonder if this is the beginning of the end. A career high Hard% screams NO, while his batted ball profile remains sterling with an over 30% liner rate and nary a pop-up. And although his HR/FB rate is down, his 14% Brls/BBE also screams fluke, and that home run power is going to return. The only minor red flag is his highest SwStk% since 2008, which has led to the highest strikeout rate since 2004, his first full season. But still, the jump in strikeout rate isn’t dramatic, just a small increase. It’s easy for an owner to be convinced he’s in decline, so Cabrera might be more attainable than you think. I’m buying.
It’s clear that BABIP ain’t Todd Frazier’s thing, as he hits lots of fly balls, lots of pop-ups, and not enough line drives. But no one is bad enough to sustain a .205 BABIP. While he’s hit better lately, his overall season line still looks ugly, which means he could come cheap in a trade (I actually traded for him myself a couple of weeks ago).
Gone are the days when Andrew McCutchen would BABIP well over .300, and deserve it too. His xBABIP fell below .300 for the first time last year, and it remains there again. That said, his speed has returned, so he doesn’t need to hit over .290 to be a valuable fantasy player.
I just wanted to end this by pointing out not that Ryan Schimpf has technically been unlucky by xBABIP, but that even with neutral luck, his BABIP would still be just .186! Could you believe that a Major League regular’s true talent BABIP level right now may very well be under .200? Crazy that Schimpf is. Can we put together a team of just Schimpfs and Joey Gallos? They are literally the same player. It would be the four true outcome team — walk, strikeout, fly ball, or pop-up! FUN!
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Interesting that Matt Carpenter has a .306 xBABIP despite all the fly balls and drop in line drive rate. Andrew Perpetua’s xStats actually has him down for a .271 xBABIP. When you look at his detailed breakdown of batted ball information, Carpenter is hitting 1.8% less low drives, 2.4% less high drives, 0.1% more fly balls, and 7.2% more Popups! There’s the main culprit. So 4.2% less line drives and 7.2% more popups. Not good.
Carpenter is too good of a hitter to keep this up. I suspect his BABIP will be .290+ going forward, unless he’s actually still injured.
I realize this is cherry picking, but I noticed three at bats over the weekend and a fly ball last night where Carpenter had a chance to drive the ball. He simply can’t put any power into his swing right now, which suggests his oblique is still an issue. I’d be looking to sell in leagues I have him in.
Agreed. I think he is still injured. If you look at his 2nd half last season, this is almost a straight up continuation of it. Oblique injuries linger.
I was really hoping Carlos Santana was going to make this list. I have a feeling he’s likely underachieving, just not to a high enough degree.
Surprised not to see Rizzo here. Where does he stand on the xBABIP scale?
No Schwarber either.
Or Belt.
Probably should have left my list up to answer specific player questions! I would guess that a lot of the names just missed the cut, and are still underperforming as you suspect.
I decided to take a look into Castellanos a bit ago, and there may be some need to temper expectations.
Have a look at his spray charts particularly for LD and FB.
http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=11737&position=3B&type=battedball&pid2=11737&ss1=2017&se1=2017&ss2=2017&se2=2017&cht1=hangtime&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL
My guess is that he’s blasting the line drives to his pull side, giving him the giant Hard%, but a lot of his fly balls go down the opposite field line. He definitely has the power to put those out, but the spray chart just doesn’t look like what I would expect given his ‘unluckiness’.
Hard% accounts for batted ball type, so his rate wouldn’t be inflating because he hits a lot of line drives. Each line drive is bucketed relative to other line drives, not other hits.
I’ve mentioned this before, but it’s difficult to take the batted ball data for some of the Detroit players seriously. Something is up in Comerica. I think analysis going forward needs to start accounting for ballpark discrepancies.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=30&type=2&season=2017&month=15&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d
Hard hit percentage at home. Tigers are 1-4, 7, 8, 16, 19, 20 and 22. Literally 10 of the top 22.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=30&type=2&season=2017&month=16&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d
On the road? Not so much. Only four in the top 30.
Split exit velocities and launch angles home and away this season grouped by team. Calculated the difference.
Tigers have the 4th largest difference between home and away exit velocity at 1.1 MPH (five teams above, 3 tied at 1.2). Mean is 0.1. Diamondbacks have the biggest difference at 3.1. Biggest decreases in San Diego, Cleveland, and Chicago White Sox. No team has a difference > 1.4 or < -1.3 other than the Diamondbacks. Quite the outlier.
Launch angle, however is a different story. Tigers have the largest difference between home and away launch angle at 3.9. Next is Kansas City at 3.1, New York Mets at 3, and Washington at 2.2. Biggest decreases come at Chicago Cubs (-3.3), Los Angeles Angels (-2.6), and Texas Rangers (-2). Mean is 0.197.
There are definitely some discrepancies to keep in mind in the future.
Some of the differences are small which might come down to a team having better players, different philosophies. But the Diamondbacks outlier, the Tigers launch angle, etc, do give reason for caution.
Good analysis. Did a decent amount of analysis about a month ago on my fledgling blog. These differences also showed up in how opposition hitters performed at Comerica, providing additional evidence that something is up.
https://fungraphs.blog/2017/05/05/whats-in-the-water-in-detroit-or-is-comericas-statcast-just-system-messed-up/
I 100% agree that this seems really weird — but a quick look shows that Justin Upton and JD Martinez actually have higher Hard% rates on the road. So if there is a home team bias, it’s by no means being applied equally.
It’s funny that this debate is plausibly influenced not just by some random data collector’s Tiger-homerism, but by the fact that he/she plausibly likes rooting for Alex Avila more than Justin Upton.
I believe on The Book blog, TangoTiger looked into this and when I tweeted about it a couple of weeks ago, the Statcast guys also looked into this, and found nothing. Probably just randomness, player specific, and perhaps change in hitting philosophy or something.
Not a lot of talk in the article about the idea Gardner might actually have raised his true talent. Getting rid of IFFB, Career high LD%, maybe just maybe his 22% HR/FB isn’t going to regress as much as one would think
Mookie Betts is at .261 right now with a lifetime .310 babip. He’s gotta be just outside of this bottom 20 list and primed to take off too.
I’m too lazy to calculate xBABIP using Mike’s formula so I will just look at xStats. They have him down for a .309 xBABIP and a .296 xBA. So you are right on, sir.
No Schwarber?
I’m too lazy to calculate xBABIP using Mike’s formula so I will just look at xStats. They have him down for a .261 xBABIP and a .210 xBA. Ouch.
Castellanos had had “bad luck” seemingly forever. Could there be something about him that BABIP and xBABIP are simply failing to account for?
xStats has him down for a .326 xBABIP and .280 xBA. Not as extreme as Mike’s formula probably because while Fangraphs / BIS is showing 0% Popups, xStats has 10.7% Popups. xStats definitiion of Popups is any ball hit 39 degrees and up. So it looks like Castellanos has been unlucky, but not that unlucky. Still a buy low candidate.
He’s better than this and I’d expect his batted ball luck to improve. The Problem with Castellanos is the strikeouts. It hasn’t gotten better since his rookie year. And he can’t make contact on pitches outside the zone. He had something like the 10th or 11th worst outside the zone contact % from 2014-2016. There might be something up with Castellanos approach that doesn’t allow him to reap the full benefits of his batted ball quality. Last season he hit .285 with 18 HR in 118 games.That might have been his ceiling or his breakout. He’s not as bad as his stats suggest this year, but I don’t think he’s as good as his batted ball quality dictates. He might be Josh Phelps like. I think it might be an approach issue with him as well.
RE: Castellanos – he also has the 2nd highest xwOBA-wOBA gap among guys with more than 150 ABs per Baseball Savant. Until the last couple days he was 1st. He currently has a gap of .073 – Statcast says he should probably have a wOBA of .374 rather than .301. For reference, Jake Lamb is on the other side having been lucky at .364 xwOBA vs an actual .394 wOBA so Statcast says Castellanos “should” have better numbers than Jake Lamb. I just picked up Castellanos a week ago when someone in my league just straight waived him.
FWIW, Miggy is 1st at .448 xwOBA v an actual .360 wOBA. Nobody else has a gap greater than .054 so those 2 are quite a bit ahead of everyone else.
If something is telling you Castellanos “should” have better numbers than Jake Lamb, you should ignore it and just use your eyes. Or search for the reason why your tool is broken.
That’s a pretty ridiculous statement. Years ago, Ben Zobrist was near the top of the WAR leaderboards and the knee-jerk reaction was that WAR was clearly a flawed metric because how could Zobrist be one of the best players in baseball?
I’m not all that concerned with the knee-jerk reactions from casual fans and old-timers. I was talking about two specific players. Watching Lamb hit vs. watching Castellanos is enough to tell me who should have “better numbers”.
I didn’t mean to imply that you should ignore the cool new tools that we have to evaluate players, but you shouldn’t be using a single metric to determine who SHOULD have “better numbers”.
So there is hope for Edwin!