The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 771 – 2020 Third Base Preview Pt. 1

by
January 22, 2020

01/22/20

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

2020 THIRD BASE PREVIEW

First Rounders (13:44)

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Three Gems (20:41)

The Meat & Potatoes (29:04)

Wait on 3B (1:01:55)

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Approximately 90 minutes of joyous analysis.

01:30:00

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Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

7 Comments
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AnonMember since 2020
6 years ago

One other note on Devers’ SB last year – his SB total was massively front-loaded last year. His last SB was June 5th and he only attempted 3 after July 1st. So the Sox already put the red light on him.

1
dudleyMember since 2016
6 years ago

Justin Turner?

1
Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff
6 years ago
Reply to  dudley

Part 2

1
macstrutsMember since 2019
6 years ago

I was looking into the Arenado question about him hitting away from Coors. There just isn’t a lot of data to support a conclusion. There is a lot of data supporting the Colorado effect when a player comes to Colorado, but there isn’t a lot of data to support leaving Colorado makes you a worse hitter.

I took a quick look and found three players with 500 plate appearances that left Colorado while still in their relative prime. There could have been more, but this was a quick look.
Jeff Cirillo, Preston Wilson, Jeffrey Hammonds

They all were all much worse after leaving Colorado.

Dickerson, lost quite a bit in batting average and slugging. And a little in HR per AB. But he never got 500 PAs in Colorado. He also faced more lefthanded pitching when he left.

And then you have DJ LeMahieu who had his best season after leaving Colorado.

I’m wouldn’t bet that Arenado (Road 265/323/476) would be the same kind of player in a different park. But if someone else makes to make that bet, more power to them.

0
macstrutsMember since 2019
6 years ago
Reply to  macstruts

They talked about Holliday in the podcast. This is probably the best comp. He wasn’t as good when he left Colorado, but the drop off only had a minor effect on his value.

0
Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff
6 years ago
Reply to  macstruts

Ya and Cirillo/Wilson/Hammonds aren’t in the same stratosphere as Arenado so they’re not even useful comps. Simple fact is that premium hitters aren’t just made by their park. The quality guys who have left Colorado in or near a prime state, remained good – Holliday, Walker, LeMahieu to name a few. I think Arenado would no worse than an .850 OPS guy outside of Coors.

0
AnonMember since 2020
6 years ago
Reply to  macstruts

Jeff Cirillo played 2 years in Colorado and they were actually pretty similar on an unadjusted basis to 4 or 5 years prior to going to Colorado and thus quite a bit worse once you adjust for ballpark. Preston Wilson got in 2.5 years at Coors – 1 year was his best ever by wOBA (unadjusted), 1 year was his worst ever wOBA (excluding his rookie and final seasons) and the half season was kind of in the middle of his other career numbers (again, unadjusted). Jeffrey Hammonds? Really? The guy played 1 year on Colorado. How much can you really infer from that?

But those are guys who just played a year or two. The most common guys brought up as examples are :
– Matt Holliday – his unadjusted numbers took a little dip once he left Coors but weren’t too far off
– Larry Walker – like Holiday his rate numbers took a little dip but remember that those were his final 2 seasons in the bigs and he wasn’t an everyday player at that point
– Lemahieu – his numbers actually went up, but it’s only 1 season thus far.

Other guys:
– Vinny Castilla: his numbers took a pretty good dip once he left but he was already 32 when he left the Rockies (and just missed the age 33 cutoff that next season by 4 days) so he was already past it. IN fact, his numbers had already started to dip in his final season in Colorado. Of course, he came back to the Rox for 1 more season in 2004 and raked that year so. . . . .
– Dante Bichette: I don’t think I realized until just now how late a start Bichette got to his career. He didn’t make the majors until he was 24 and didn’t get 500 PA in a season until he went to the Rockies in 1993 as a 29 year old. He then didn’t leave the ROx until he was 36 and he only played another season and half after that. So it’s hard to compare either his time before or after the Rockies with his time in Colorado.
– Andres Galarraga: THere is no question his hitting went to a new level literally the season he went to Colorado (though it coincided with the explosion in offense in 1993). . . .but the problem with him is he continued to rake when he left Colorado and went to the Braves in 1998. His numbers dipped in 2001 but he was 40 by then.
– Tulo and CarGo: Paul touched on this in the pod but Tulo had already started to break down before he left the Rockies and CarGo had as well and has only played a quarter season since he left so that’s a tough comp

0