The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1116 – Angels Making Moves; Abreu Signs with a Contender

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November 29, 2022

11/29/22

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Approximately 64 minutes of joyous analysis.

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mjmclaughlin61
2 years ago

Thanks for all the great work, guys. But I have to take issue with your overly harsh take on Carlos Santana for several reasons:

  1. He projects to be decent. His Steamer 600 line is .230/.336/.735 with 21 HR, 71 R, 70 R, and a 109 RC+. First basemen with similar projections include Trey Mancini, Spencer Torkelson, and Spencer Steer. He seems likely to get full playing time in Pittsburg. Nothing amazing, but not useless.
  2. As one of the most shifted against hitters in baseball, he is among the most likely to benefit from the shift rule changes. Quantifying the Impact of the Shift Restrictions – Patrick Brennan (wordpress.com)
  3. The underlying metrics show he continues to possess a rare combination of plate discipline and power. He still walks more (97th percentile) and strikes out less (74th percentile) than league average. His whiff rate is in the 71st percentile; his chase rate is in the 87th percentile. His max exit velo remains over 111 mph, which puts him in the 75th percentile. His bat speed is in the 60th percentile. His barrel rate last year was 9.3%, equal to his career year in 2019. His xwOBA was .352, which puts him in the 88th percentile.

I don’t know if he’ll be any good, but it is within the range of outcomes. He could put up a good first half and Pittsburg could flip him for some value. I don’t think it was a crazy signing by Pittsburg.

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mjmclaughlin61
2 years ago
Reply to  mjmclaughlin61

Here are some player comps for Santana’s combination of plate skills and power. It’s pretty good company.

2022, Min. 100 PA

BB/K>0.8
ISO >.170
Soto, Bregman, Jose Ramirez, Freeman, Santana

BB/K > 0.8
Max Exit Velo >111 mph
Soto, Y. Diaz, Vinnie P., Freeman, Jose Ramirez, Winker, Santana

BB/K > .8
Barrel % > 9%
Soto, Freeman, Santana

BB/K > .8
Hard hit % > 35%
Y. Diaz, Kirk, Freeman, Vinny P., Santana

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