The Process: Thinking One Layer Deeper

Now that we’ve hit the holidays and fantasy owners may be staring at a couple of four-day weekends so it might be time to cozy up with your favorite e-reader and bang out the 200+ pages of The Process. As memorable and life-altering as bowl games sponsored by credit unions, auto parts stores, and baked cheese crackers can be, this is a great time of year to take on such a project.

Here’s a nice peek under the covers of the book, but if you take the time to read the book, the biggest skill or improvement we hope owners take away is to elevate their level of thinking. Thinking about players, projections, valuations, and strategies one layer deeper than previously done.

Start Small, Start with Valuations

Perhaps the biggest example of this is the inclination of most owners to spend time heavily investing in projections and then leaping directly to some form of subjective ranking or “feelings” about players. Instead, The Process preaches (repeatedly) adding a layer between the projections-to-rankings approach. The use of a valuation system like Z-scores or standings gain points creates a more objective basis for making decisions.

Many different judgments about risk and playing time are explored in the book. There’s still plenty of need to layer in these subjective feelings into a player’s ranking, but that layer of judgment should be applied to the projection and not the final ranking.

Add Theory to Valuations

In formulating player values isn’t new to owners, exploring the theories and concepts underlying these valuations may be. The book includes sections on replacement level, the myths behind position scarcity, the hitter-pitcher split, the value of multi-position eligibility, and even deep thoughts on the proper valuation of closers.

It’s a Work in Process

One of the big challenges we faced in publishing the book was deciding when it was done. The Process will likely never be “done”. It will continue to be a living and breathing guide into the process we use to prepare for a draft, handle in-season management, review last season, and start it all over again.

The area we feel most uncertain about and want to explore more deeply in next year’s book is how to properly value closers in the preseason given what we know transpires during the season. There are a solid 10 pages in the book discussing projecting closers, valuing closers, alternate ways of valuing closers, drafting closers, FAABing closers, and more, yet it doesn’t seem like enough. Here’s an example of the type of work we’re already kicking around to be included in next year’s book and why it’ll never be done…

The Saves Landscape is Changing

It’s going to look like the data below is made up. It’s not. The fantasy industry needs to reevaluate a lot of the preconceived notions we have about closers and the Saves category. Regardless of whether an owner is from the “pay for saves” crowd or from the “saves are a terrible investment” group, it’s time wipe the slate clean and admit the beliefs formulated five years ago may no longer be applicable today.

The amount of Saves occurring in the major leagues hasn’t changed much over this time period. Yet fantasy owners’ abilities to capture Saves continues to decline.

Fewer and fewer set closers exist. Instead, teams are being more flexible with their bullpens with more pitchers getting Save chances. Here a look at next year’s projected Save totals.

A few top-end closers (20+ Saves) will likely not make their projected totals but these projections, along with our process, will need to adapt as the game changes. No longer are there 30 set closers to spread around.

Conclusion

Overall, The Process provides a detailed roadmap on successfully running a fantasy team. Owners can pick and choose which steps they want to implement when building their teams. As the football season winds down, it’s a great time to get a head start on the competition with The Process. It’s less than 60 days until spring training starts.