The Parker Messick Lesson and Potential 2027 Dupes

Park ‘er behind down and stay awhile. Let’s talk about drafting skills versus drafting roles.

I’ve only ever lived in California, so my ability to write poetically about the changing seasons is limited, at best. Hamstrung, to borrow from a Buxtonian turn of phrase.

For me, the easiest way for me to notice the changing seasons has never been snow.

Growing up, it was the change from playing baseball to playing flag football. Exchanging ripped pants for ripped knees. 

As I got a little older, and as the Dodgers actually started making the playoffs, shedding the Aaron Miles brand of baseball for Manny Ramirez, and then Hanley Ramirez, I cared less about flag football. But the fall did still have a shining bright spot. Playoff baseball. 

Again, the privileged Dodger fan I was, I got to enjoy a few playoff games growing up. The first one I remember was a 2008 NLCS loss to the mighty Phillies. This was back when the Phillies were essentially the Dodgers. A lineup of Hall of Famers, who also happened to be gamers. I remember parking so far away that we walked from behind the “Think Blue” fake Hollywood sign up in the hills. 

Ever since, I’ve been hooked on the playoffs. I remember staying home from school during the 2016 playoffs, sick with mono and out for an entire month. Thank God it was October. I got to watch every game I didn’t sleep through, including the magical Cleveland run to the AL Pennant, and the equally thrilling Cubs slog through the NL. 

All of this is to say that I come by my love of the playoffs honestly. And so I of course watched yesterday’s bout between the Guardians and Rays, with nationally-witnessed ace Drew Rasmussen dueling against a presumptive AL Rookie of the Year finalist, Parker Messick. 

And every time I’ve watched Messick this postseason, my first thought is always the same. He should’ve been on every single one of my draft boards, targeted rounds ahead of ADP. The skills Messick showed in his cup of coffee last season, and across his climb through the minors, were screaming breakout. Why weren’t we?

I think the lesson of Parker Messick that fantasy drafters should hold heading into 2027 drafts is that, especially in the late rounds, we should draft skills and upside, not presumed roles. 

This is by no means a rule, but more as a lesson to learn from. As one does with lessons. And failures, which this is too. Parker Messick having an ADP well outside of the top 200, even in March, was a market failure. Connelly Early had more competition, less proven success in the minors or in the majors, in a tougher division, and was still being drafted ahead of Messick. In hindsight, of course that looks bad, but it looks bad in a results-blind, process-focused way, too. 

RotoGraphs’ own Paul Sporer laid out the case for Messick well in his final rankings update in March. Paul moved Messick 21 spots higher in his final run, citing how the upside could be that “he pushes toward his 28% minor league strikeout rate in a full-scale breakout: 3.30 ERA/1.20 WHIP/20% K-BB in 26-28 starts.”

He beat all of those, except his 19% K-BB% didn’t technically live up to Paul’s 20% upside case. But he did make good, and it was an upside case backed up by a reasonable expectation of volume, given the fact that Messick, as Paul pointed out, exceeded 130 innings per season across the majors and minors in 2024 and 2025. Which meant worrying about load management, especially in Cleveland, was unnecessary. 

I think the lesson to take from this is simple: when the upside case is clear, the downside case is about role, and starting pitchers are involved, bet on the skills. 

The guys over at CBS Fantasy love to say “life finds a way” when talking about playing time crunches sorting themselves out. And they of course always do sort themselves out. Because a manager either benches someone, sends someone down, or allows for one player to outplay the other, if there isn’t an injury. 

If a player at Messick’s draft price and upside has some of these concerns about life finding a way, boost them, especially in shallower leagues or leagues where there will be roster churn. In draft and holds, and deeper leagues, role is the league winning strategy. Season long accumulation. But in FAAB leagues, where you could presumably have cut Messick if a month went by and he was still in the minors, in some Bizarro world where that happened,  there would be a remedy. Even better in leagues with IL or NA slots. Bet on the upside!

This is right about where I’d love to tell you that I already know exactly who “the next Messick” is. Of course I don’t. 

But I know that this draft season, I’m going to take The Messick Lesson into the room. I’m going to say that a young talented starting pitcher will eventually win out, get a role, and that I’m confident in my ability to cut him if he struggles and adjust to my league’s format. 

And if you really need a few potential 2027 Making Me’sicks, here’s a handful, albeit without ADP.

Jonah Tong: You probably love post-hype sleepers, you just may not know it yet. And it’s not that long ago that we thought of Tong with Payton Tolle. Tong came into the league in 2025 with a ton of fanfare, leading the minor leagues in strikeouts, and promptly got humbled. He struggled in Triple-A in 2026, as he walked more batters, allowed more home runs, and had some of the worst results of his professional pitching career. 

But he’s only 23 years old. And in his four starts and three relief appearances with the Mets in 2026, he excelled. Tong pitched to a 3.82 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 14.9% K-BB%, with ERA estimators that backed it up. Compared to last season, he improved his barrel rate and hard hit rate, and he made changes. 

Since last season, Tong has added a cutter, which he throws 20% of the time, dropped his four-seam usage below 50%, ditched the slider, and chucks his curveball and changeup more than 1 mph faster. The results like these changes and the underlying numbers agree with the results, as he increased his chase, decreased his zone contact, and improved his first pitch strike rate. 

And while he lost Stuff+ and Location+ across his arsenal, his two most frequently used pitches did have some improvement. The four-seamer’s Stuff+ increased from 102 to 109, despite losing some velocity, and the changeup’s Location+ improved from 83 to 106. 

The model may be adjusting. Tong dropped his arm angle from 64 degrees to 55 degrees and clearly is making arsenal tweaks. 

All in, Tong showed marked improvements to his numbers in the majors after a disappointing 2025, with visible changes to his plan of attack and his results. He also has shown durability, like Messick had, eclipsing 130 innings in both 2025 and 2026 between the majors and minors. Between Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, Zac Thornton, and Christian Scott, there are durability and role questions that make it likely that Tong will reach the 25 starts that ZIPS projected him for in 2027 prior to this season. 

Grant Taylor: If the White Sox are still vague about his role heading into Spring Training, I wouldn’t be shocked. Being wishy washy with young players is one of the managerial benefits of having young players. And they’re cheap (though maybe not as cheap soon). 

In Taylor’s case, it’s less about making the team, as it was in Messick’s case, and entirely about whether Chris Getz decides he wants to continue limiting his innings via a multi-inning fireman role, really limit his innings as the closer, or move Taylor into the starting rotation. Especially in deeper leagues, all three roles will have value. And he’s skilled, averaging 98 mph with his fastball, posting a 48% groundball rate, and a 22.6% K-BB% to back up his sub-3 ERA and sub-3 ERA estimators. Draft him, assuming he isn’t being pushed up to NFBC early draft closer prices.

An honorable mention note about Connor Prielipp: At this way too early stage, Prielipp may not seem to fit the Messick mold, given his 22 starts in the majors this year with the Twins. But come draft season, I think there could be role questions coming for the 25-year-old. The Twins should have Mick Abel, Pablo López, and David Festa returning to a rotation that, for now, has Joe Ryan, Taj Bradley, Bailey Ober, and Dean Kremer.

Ryan should leave for free agency, unless he accepts an extension. Bradley is signed through 2030. Ober and Kremer both are signed through next season. Prielipp may be framed as “battling” for the fifth slot in the rotation, but I think he’ll end up making 20+ starts for Minnesota next season, striking out a batter per inning with walk and first pitch strike rates that have room for improvement and consistency. 

An honorable mention note about Spencer Miles: The Blue Jays have already said they’re not sure about Miles’ role for 2027, but that he’ll certainly pitch meaningful innings for Blue Jays. That fits the Messick mold. But he threw 95.2 innings in 2026 after throwing less than 25 professional innings from 2022 through 2025.

That doesn’t fit the Messick mold. Miles feels like he’s a year ahead, and may just make for a fantastically expensive FAAB pickup once he’s announced as a starting pitcher at some point in 2027. But I doubt it will be long lived. His draft cost will determine my interest. 

An honorable mention note about David Sandlin: An uneven season for Sandlin, his role will almost certainly be in flux heading into the 2027 season. The White Sox have plenty of rotation options to slot behind Sean Burke and Davis Martin, all with varying degrees of experience. Sandlin made six starts and two relief appearances to get to 40.1 innings in 2026, was trusted to pitch in the postseason (though he struggled), and did sometimes look great on the mound. 

But if you open up his gamelog, you’ll see a mixed bag. Since it’s almost Halloween, I’d call it Dots mixed with Reese’s Pumpkins. The Pumpkins? Four starts of five innings or more with one earned run allowed or less. These included his first and last starts of the season, each six innings of one run ball, with a solo homer accounting for all of the scoring. But he allowed eight runs to the Twins, a pair of homers to the Phillies and Guardians, and in all of those appearances, allowed plenty of walks. 

But like Messick, he did improve his walk rate in the majors compared to the minors. And his 16.2% K-BB% puts him just below Nolan McLean (and above Aaron Nola), if you put him among qualifiers. 

Plus, look back at the video. He looks like he’s under control on the mound. He throws an easy 97 mph. And he really does a great job at mixing velocities across his five pitch mix. 

How pretty is this?

The only concern here is, like Messick heading into this season, that the minor league walk rate could return. And though it feels weird to say, I’d bet on the White Sox pitching development staff at the major league level to keep him level. If he’s not, just drop him! His workload is a concern to a lesser degree, as he eclipsed 106 innings in both 2025 and 2026 across the majors and minors.