The Next 16 SPs
Last week I unveiled my Top 24 Pitchers for 2017 and yes, it was an amazing list, I know, buuuuttt I feel like your appetites weren’t satiated so here’s the next 16 pitchers on my list right now giving you a top 40 to chew on until at least November.
- Aaron Sanchez – Underwhelming strikeout rate for a frontliner, but has the raw stuff (95 MPH heat, filthy curve) to add more as he gains experience similar to teammate Stroman.
- Jose Quintana – Remarkably consistent mid-rotation arm who finally broke double digits in wins; you roster him to absorb some volatility elsewhere.
- Gerrit Cole – Shutdown with an elbow injury clouding his future and making him a tough rank; still has insane upside when (if?) healthy, so if he comes into camp looking good, I’ll be jumping on any discount.
- Kyle Hendricks – I’m surprised no one mentioned him when I posted the top 24… *ducks*; skills and indicators say he is the same good-not-great SP we saw in ’14 and ‘15 if we’re being honest, but y’all did talk me up four spots from my initial rank.
- Rick Porcello – Doesn’t walk anyone so when hit suppression goes his way, this is the results; likely to be somewhat overrated next year.
- Marcus Stroman – Added strikeouts to his elite groundball rate and saved his season: 5.33 ERA, 16% K, and 64% GB through June; 3.29, 24%, and 63% since July 1st. Bottom line ERA (4.34) could leave him overlooked.
- Tanner Roark – Kind of a baby Hendricks and yet no one clamored for him to be anywhere near the top 24… *ducks again*
- Danny Salazar – Another injury case (forearm) who is difficult to rank because of the uncertainty, though there are rumblings of him returning at RP for the playoffs which might offer some clarity.
- Michael Fulmer – The idea of a late-season slowdown is built off two starts, admittedly his two worst all year, but he has 3.24 ERA in the four starts surrounding the duds (and that doesn’t even include his shutout at Texas on 8/14).
- Jake Odorizzi – Leaguewide HR surge didn’t do this flyball righty any favors; still shows flashes of being more than mid-to-upper 3.00s arm, but potential is drying up for a guy headed into his age-27 season.
- Vince Velasquez – More upside than results at this point, but I really love that upside; needs to avoid the implosion: 4.12 ERA despite allowing 0-3 ER in 17 of his 24 starts (plus his 28% K rate was tied with Verlander, Bumgarner, Archer, and Salazar after rounding).
- Felix Hernandez – Might actually be harder to rank than the injury concerns because it was such a weirdly bad season for him: 3.71 ERA and 1.32 WHIP were eight-year highs and his 19% K rate was a career-worst. Blip or end of him as a frontliner? I really don’t know.
- Julio Teheran – Three of his worst starts came after mid-August DL return or he might’ve finished with a sub-3.00 ERA like ’14; the ’17 offense shouldn’t be as bad as the one that left him with a 3-9 record through his first 21 starts this year.
- Kevin Gausman – ERA reached a season-high 4.37 after 6/20 start at Texas, since: 3.19 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 25% K, and 3.9 K:BB in 104.3 IP; HRs remain a concern: 1.4 for season, 1.3 during isolated stretch after 6/20.
- Marco Estrada – Showed the doubters that his stuff does influence the BABIP more than we thought while also recapturing his previous strikeout rate in exchange for some walks.
- Jon Gray – He still pitches in Coors which adds a level of volatility that is beyond his control; his six outings of 10+ Ks tied him with Archer and Bumgarner while topping Thor (5).
—
OK, have it. Who are the biggest misses of the top 40 in your eyes? Please make a case that isn’t just “he had a good ERA this year!” as these aren’t just looking at 2016. Also, would y’all be interested in some preliminary top 12s (or maybe top 10s w/a few honorable mentions) at each position over the next couple of weeks?
JA Happ doesn’t seem like a crazy pick to include in a top 40 SP discussion. His end to 2015 + a season of surviving in the AL East seems to show that repeating something like his year this year in 2017 is very possible.
I feel like Happ hasn’t been getting any love this season from Fangraphs, despite how awesome he’s been
I too was very curious about folks’ thoughts on Happ for next year. He had a quietly great season, but his ERA is notably lower than his FIP/xFIP, so I’m not sure what exactly that means for 2017.
No Harvey?
Not sure who they’d bump, but Taillon/Paxton certainly have to be in the discussion, I’d think. Both fairly high on the K-BB% leaderboard for starters this year. Taillon is maybe flagging a bit due to workload right now, but Paxton is finishing strong.
Unfortunately a member of the top 24 will need to be bumped :'(
What about Steven Matz? Has the same tendency to be injured as some of these guys, and as-good or better stuff than a few of them.
I don’t think Matz has a greater tendency to be injured than ANYONE. He has shown no ability to be healthy ever.
Completely agree. Take away the “hype” and run support gaps, and how much of a difference was there in 2016 between Matz and Strasburg? Matz made 22 starts with a 3.30 xFIP. Strasburg made 24 with a 3.21 xFIP. Strasburg hasn’t surpassed 150 innings since 2014. Ranking Strasburg 12th and Matz outside the top 40 isn’t justified by any actual data. Either the former needs to be much lower, or the latter should be included.
There are some guys on this list I would actually prefer Eduardo Rodriguez to. Like some of the above, the effect of his terrible early season results on his stat line will likely obscure that he’s been very good (admittedly with a somewhat deflated BABIP) for August/September. I for one would rather have him next year than, for example, Gausman or Odorizzi.
John Lackey could sneak onto this list if one is looking for a safe bet/sure thing rather than shooting for upside with Gray or Gausman.
By all means please do preliminary top 10-12 positional lists. The comments on those pieces are a great place for the FG crowd to discuss with a built-in frame of reference.
Would love to see some top 10-12’s at positions. Only guy I would like to see on this list (my own personal taste more than a statement that you “missed” by omitting him) DeSclafani
two guys
Junior Guerra
and Julio Urias
Thank you
According to the contact management posts, Kyle Hendricks is the single best contact suppressor in the NL (independent of defense! based on EV/LA), together with better than average K/BB rates leading to the second best TruERA in the NL, second only to Scherzer (whose golden K rate makes up for his marginally lesser but still above average contact management).
I would hardly call that good-but-not-great.
Edit: I just remembered this is a fantasy article, and I don’t really do fantasy, so… this may not apply… lol. But IRL he is definitely elite.
That’s fair. But where did Keuchel rank in ’14 and ’15? I know I’m a bit of a “stuff” whore, but it matters and I worry about seeing Hendricks’ ’16 as the new normal for him. He’s having an amazing season, I won’t deny that 1%, but how bankable is it going forward? I say only top 30 level.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-starting-pitcher-ball-in-play-retrospective-al-west/
Blengino gave Keuchel an adjusted contact score of 83, best in the Al West. So he was likely one of the top contact managers in 2015.
Keuchel had a skills decline this year. Unless you’re saying Hendricks will for some reason do the same thing, how is this even a relevant comp?
Did he, though? Keuchel’s ’16 skills are in line or better than his ’14 ones when he had a sub-3.00 ERA. What’s really the difference between them? When you’re at the mercy of balls in play success, it can turn on a dime. Kyle Hendricks is simply not a true talent sub-3.00 guy.
He lost over a full mph on his fastball this year. When you only throw 89 in the first place, that’s a huge deal. I’d happily hear any argument that begins with “Hendricks will lose velo because of reasons x y z”.
Hendricks’ velo went down this year already, why would you be so certain it wouldn’t continue to trickle downward as it does with virtually everyone?
Where do you guys want Hendricks? All this gnashing of teeth for Hendricks even though he’s slotted top 30 seems odd to me. Are y’all really not open to the idea that this is a brilliant career year and he will push back toward ’15 levels next year?
At no point have I suggested he’s a scrub, so I’m not sure what this ardent defense of Hendricks is going against. Even as we better understand contact management and how pitchers can influence what the batters do at contact, it’s still extremely volatile and he doesn’t have the raw stuff to mitigate some of that volatility. His skills improvement (insofar as there was any) is not at all commensurate with a 2 run improvement in ERA. Are y’all really seeing a top 10 arm here for 2017? If so, good luck with all of that.
For me, it’s not about Hendricks being rated criminally low, it’s about some of the specific names ahead of him. Seems like some guys, say Sanchez or Maeda, are only better in name and hyper with no actual statistical case to support them.
But talking about Hendricks as being at the mercy of BIP success and not buying his contact management as sustainable is odd, considering his FIP this season is better than 21 of the 27 pitchers ahead of him anyway and is 5th among qualified starters in the MLB.
It’s one thing to keep him behind pitchers who he has outperformed but who have a longer track record – Bumgarner, Kluber (almost equal FIPs), Sale, etc. – I’m not advocating calling Hendricks a top 5 or even top 10 pitcher, which would require belief in the sustainability of his contact management and the assumption his innings won’t be restricted next season, as they were in the first half and as all Cubs pitchers’ were to some degree. But some pitchers – like Sanchez, Maeda, Duffy, Martinez – don’t really compare to Hendricks’ body of work at all, while others – Verlander, Hamels – require a fair bit of optimism.
I think Sean Manaea is worthy of being discussed in the top 40. Gets a lot of swings and misses while throwing lots of first pitch strikes. Slider is good, changeup looks good.
Also think Taillon and Paxton should be in here.
Manaea yes, not the other two.
My Honorable Mentions would be McCullers, Taillon, and Pineda. It’s not to suggest they absolutely +will+ be somewhere between 30-40, only that it’s not a bad bet that they +could+ be. Super dark horse for 35-40 would be R. Ray.
Aside from Pineda (no longer a believer) all three are likely gonna be sleeper picks. Each has a major question mark: McCullers’s lack of control (kills WHIP), Ray’s poor contact management, Taillon’s potential innings limit.
Taillons tallied over 160 IP this year so im not sure how much of a concern a potentiall innings limit should be
My mistake. I was looking at MLB only. Thanks
Desclafani
Probably want to bump everyone up a spot since your number three pitcher died.
Too soon.
EJ, that serves no purpose. C’mon man, be better.
Aaron Nola would be in my top 40. The skill set is quite strong, and with an inflated ERA in 2016 and the Phillies not getting much respect I could see a discount in drafts next year.
Agreed. His was the name I was going to put on here. We have to see how he does with the throwing program he began earlier this week, but that’s true of Salazar too. He pitched really well until he tried to work through an injury of some kind (as yet unreported but all too obvious to see it in the data). Has the talent to take a step forward in contact management with better stuff than Hendricks.
Got him in at 44. Love the talent, worry about the elbow.
I’ll take all of the guys who don’t have a split mentioned in their blurb over the ones that don’t.
Pardon?
Personally, I would have to have seen these guys reach this top-40 list: Desclafani, Matz, Paxton, Lackey, Nola, McCullers. In fact, I’m actually a bit shocked that Matz of all people didn’t crack the top-40 here; I find him more valuable than anyone after Porcello.
One name that hasn’t been mentioned yet – Robbie Ray and his 11+ K/9. His ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- intrigued me — 109 / 86 / 81.
I searched for pitchers since 2002 that had similar triple slashes. Out of the top 7, coincidentally?!?, three of them were also from 2016:
110 / 83 / 76 Pineda
110 / 91 / 83 Keuchel
101 / 86 / 79 Stroman
I found the following seasons for the 11 most similar pre-2016 pitchers and this is what they averaged:
Season x: 103 / 86 / 83
Season x+1: 79 / 86 / 86
Pitchers: Porcello, Pettite, Lidle, Hendricks, Mussina, B.Morrow, C.Hammels, Wainwright, Brett Anderson, Peavy, Felix Hernandez
It’s too small of a sample to draw any conclusions but I will definitely be targeting Ray, Pineda, Keuchel, and Stroman as sleepers in next year’s drafts.
I’d probably take Reyes, Rodon, and Guerra over guys like Gray and Teheran.
Shoemaker?
Jeremy Guthrie?