The Hottest Pickups This Week 8/1: Yay or Nay?

Let’s take a look at the players you’re rushing to the free agent pool to add in CBS leagues. These are the guys whose ownership rates have increased most over the last week. Are fantasy owners justified in their enthusiasm or just chasing the hot player du jour soon to fade?

Braden Shipley was ranked as the second best prospect in the Diamondbacks organization heading into the season by former lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth. He noted that Shipley features a high velocity velocity and an excellent curve, with a #3/4 starter future, with upside. Through four starts, so far, so good with a 2.96 ERA, right? Well, not exactly. His SIERA sits at a horrid 5.25, while his K-BB% is a puny 5%. This isn’t all that surprising to me though as his minor league statistical record is hardly that of a top pitching prospect. In fact, it baffles me how he was ranked so highly to begin with given that his track record has been rather mediocre and his strikeout rate had been trending downward, finishing at a lowly 15.5% in his first taste of Triple-A this year. His fastball velocity has been well below where Farnsworth had him at, as well. I wouldn’t touch him, even in NL-Only leagues, and 53% ownership is far too high.

I think most were a bit surprised by Aaron Judge’s recall, as we figured he wouldn’t make it until rosters expand in September. But even with the Yankees right in the playoff hunt, they are content letting some of the kids play. With his huge frame, he figured to hit for big power at some point, but that hasn’t really happened yet. That said, he feels like the type where in any season, the light switch could turn on and he goes bonkers with no warning. He doesn’t strike out at an alarming rate if he does hit for strong power, and he at least offsets the prospect of a low batting average with a solid walk rate. I think 66% is probably a touch high, which is understandable given the hype, but it’s reasonable. It’s certainly far more acceptable than Shipley’s ownership!

Silly me, suggesting in the comments of an article that Adam Ottavino had no chance of closing out games this year for the Rockies. I’m pretty amazed that he’s doing so now in his return season from TJ surgery, but there are some reasons to worry. His fastball velocity is well down from last year before he went down to the injury, and down, but less so, from 2014. That’s typical of TJ returnees, which is why I’m rarely optimistic. He’s also throwing first pitch strikes far less frequently than his career average, another typical effect of coming back from the procedure. With little real competition, he’ll probably do fine enough to hold the closer gig. Given that, I think he’s actually underowned at 42%.

Every time I question a mediocre starting pitcher in the hot pickups list, I’m told in the comments the guy has two starts this week. Do fantasy owners really blindly pick up anyone solely for the two starts?! Don’t you realize that just means the potential for double the damage to your ratios? Vogelsong is starting tonight, which means he’s probably also lined up for a Sunday start. And hey, he has a 2.67 ERA! But his skills remain as soft as always and he’s 39 years old. Please, please, drop him after you endure his two starts. Let’s hope he doesn’t destroy your ratios too badly.

So Luke Weaver was one of the most recent pitching prospect callups and we’ve discussed him a lot as a result. Eric Longenhagen concluded Weaver’s writeup with:

While he lacks awe-inspiring stuff, the repertoire is deep and Weaver throws plenty of strikes, a combination which I think will equate to a solid mid-rotation big-league starter. There’s a chance for more if the cutter, which is still fairly new, progresses beyond my projection.

Chris Mitchell’s KATOH forecast sees him as a top 20 prospect, but Jeff Zimmerman was “not impressed with the overall package” after watching his last start. He showed excellent control in the minors and his strikeout rate surged at Double-A, which is a good sign. But he has thrown just six Triple-A innings, so it’s difficult to predict how he will fare against advanced competition. I think his ownership rate is fair as there’s lots of guesswork here, and I’d prefer him over Shipley, whose ownership rate is much higher.

Somehow, at age 39, Fernando Rodney has managed to remain acceptable enough to not only continue playing a vital bullpen role, but to actually close out Marlins games while A.J. Ramos is on the DL. His high ground ball rate gives him some margin for error and helps erase some of the extra baserunners he allows thanks to his poor control. There’s no reason any league that counts saves should leave him in the free agent pool.

Robbie Ray appears to be also benefiting from the two-start ownership bump, but his is far more deserving than Vogelsong’s. Ray has actually endure a strange season as it has the makings of a major breakout year thanks to a strikeout rate surge, but his BABIP is the second highest in baseball, which has ruined that skills growth. It’s easy to see what has led to the high BABIP, as his LD% is above league average, he doesn’t induce a lot of pop-ups, and his Hard% is seventh highest in baseball. Why he’s giving up hard contact and whether he will continue to, I have no idea, but it has happened, so it helps explain the high BABIP. But you know me, I like betting on the underlying skills and even though I entered the year pessimistic about Ray given his struggles against right-handers, I’ve done a 180 and am now somewhat bullish. Owners that picked him up for the two starts should hold onto him.