The Daily Grind: Weekend Update

The afternoon slate will be dominated by two distinct lineups – Chris Sale plus scrubs or a Coors Field stack. Good luck navigating the alternatives.

AGENDA

1. Weather Reports
2. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
3. Players to Avoid
4. SaberSim Says…

1. Weather Reports

San Diego is a real weather risk today. The rest of the league should be fine although New York and Los Angeles could see some rain.

2. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: The 10 game afternoon crew is headlined by Chris Sale. Absolutely use him if you can stomach the $11,900 price tag. It’s a very reasonable cost. Too bad 50 percent of the field will be sharing him with you. Sale is opposed by Ervin Santana and the Twins. I’d warn you off buying into Sweet Erv’s hot start, but I think Sale and the Sox will do that for me.

Jose Quintana was surprisingly slumpy at the start of the season. It was doubly surprising because he was so dominant during the World Baseball Classic. He’s visiting Camden Yards this afternoon. He’s used to pitch – and succeeding – in bandboxes.

If you don’t want to use Sale or Quintana, you can roll the dice with Matt Shoemaker or Alex Cobb. Shoemaker has a tough matchup against the Astros. You’re hoping his A splitter shows up to the game. He’s capable of tossing a complete game, 10 strikeout performance. You’re more likely to get six innings and four runs allowed. Cobb also has unlikely complete game upside. He’s opposed by the lousy and louse-y Blue Jays offense.

Stack Targets: Jose Urena, Joe Biagini, Tyler Glasnow, Zach Davies, Mike Fiers, Taijuan Walker, R.A. Dickey, Tyler Chatwood, Jeremy Hellickson

Late Slate: The five game late slate runs at 4:00pm ET. Not that late after all. Jon Lester hosting the NY Bombermen may be the top pitcher of the slate. I say “may” because he’s had three straight appearances of fewer than six innings. Last time out, he walked five Phillies. The two times before that, the Pirates and Reds got 10 and nine hits respectively.

The other ace, Johnny Cueto, has yet to pitch to his ceiling. With his goofy pauses, Cueto is probably prone to losing feel for his command. Frankly, I’ve only seen a few innings of him this season. He looked normal to me. His velocity is down about one mph on average, but he’s worked at his normal speed in four of six outings. He’s visiting his old stomping grounds in Cincinnati.

Luis Severino is on the other end of Lester. He’ll be an overly popular contrarian pick against a tough Cubs offense. It could work out. He handled an equally tough Red Sox offense.

Trevor Cahill would be the gem of the slate if his start wasn’t likely to be rained out. He combines a stingy ground ball rate with a newfound ability to record strikeouts as a starter. Cahill’s command continues to be below average, manifesting in a high walk rate.

Stack Targets: Dillon Overton, Scott Feldman, Andrew Cashner, Daniel Norris, Sonny Gray

3. Players to Avoid

Michael Wacha often looks like a solid play, but he never strings together the necessary upside. Too many times, I’ve started counting my winnings after five brilliant innings and then he promptly allows three runs and exits with a useless point total. With as well as he’s pitched this year, he’s only once exceeded 40 FanDuel points. He scored a 43. Whoopdeedoo.

If you’re tempted by Joe Biagini’s success as a reliever, just remember he’s liable to throw something like three or four innings.

Gary Sanchez is back, but for $3,100 on FanDuel, I’d wait for him to personally tell us he’s returned.

Mike Trout has a hamstring strain. Confirm he’s in a lineup. I didn’t do so yesterday, although it only affected normal fantasy leagues in which I have massive OF games surpluses to burn.

SaberSim seems to think Adam Duvall is a big pickup against Cueto. If you’re going to use a Reds outfielder, it should be Scott Schebler.

4. SaberSim Says…

Chris Sale, Jon Lester, Tyler Glasnow, Daniel Norris, and Jose Quintana are the top rated pitchers today. With respect to Glasnow and Norris, I wouldn’t even pause to consider using them. Nobody will debate the hitter selections. It’s Bryce Harper and a bunch of Coors Field guys – Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, A.J. Pollock, and Charlie Blackmon.