The Daily Grind: Splits Issues, Nola, Medlen, Schoop
Agenda
- Problems with Splits
- Daily DFS
- GB / FB Splits
- SaberSim Hi/Lo
- Tomorrow’s Targets – Medlen, Rea, Schoop, Taylor
- Factor Grid
1. Problems with Splits
In our search for a greater truth (about baseball players), DFS participants use a lot of splits. In this column, we frequently reference handedness and batted ball splits. For pitchers, we look at how the opposing team does against their hand. Hitters get a more (and less) nuanced treatment.
The problem with using all these splits is that they’re rarely statistically significant. We’re just making informed guesses about which trends are signal or noise. Yesterday, I mentioned the Angels as a team that does well against lefties and fly ball pitchers. What I should have said is that they project to do well against lefties – their actual performance has been near the bottom of the league.
The poor play to date doesn’t pass the smell test. Mike Trout owns everybody – especially lefties. C.J. Cron and Kole Calhoun are fine against southpaws. Chris Iannetta likes lefties. So does David Freese (when he’s healthy). The L.A. lineup isn’t particularly deep, but Trout alone is enough to carry league average production at the team level.
The weird one is Albert Pujols. He’s the reason the Angels look bad against lefties. This year, Pujols has a 136 wRC+ against righties. Over his career, he’s been slightly better against left-handed pitching. However, his 2015 line against lefties in 130 plate appearances amounts to a 91 wRC+. We should expect something in the 135 to 145 wRC+ range. Chaining that to Trout and a couple slightly above average hitters creates a top 10 offense against lefties.
We generally know what we’re getting into with righty hitter versus lefty pitcher splits. By all means, use them to your advantage, but you need to think about the components. Don’t take them as gospel.
Oh, and the Angels managed just one run over seven innings against Wolf.
2. Daily DFS – Iglesias, Nola
With the unofficial start of fall right around the corner, teams are playing fewer day games during the week. Tonight is a full 15 game slate. It’s a Kershaw day, but I don’t like using him when you can reasonably expect similar production from Max Scherzer for $1,500 less. Scherzer himself may not be a safe bet. There are reports of mechanical issues. However, any of Matt Harvey, Sonny Gray, Cole Hamels, Francisco Liriano, Michael Wacha, Masahiro Tanaka, Danny Salazar, or Scott Kazmir are capable of outpeforming Kershaw-Scherzer on a given day.
You even have high upside, cheap options. Raisel Iglesias has driven his FanDuel price up to $8,000 after a 13 strikeout performance against the Diamondbacks. He’s opposed by an unimposing Brewers offense. I anticipate inconsistency from Iglesias, mixing dominant outings with clunkers. I think he’ll do fine today.
Four other high ceiling rookies are available – Andrew Heaney (CLE), Aaron Nola (SDP), Henry Owens (NYM), and Jonathan Gray (PIT). Nola is my favorite against a mediocre Padres offense. As a commenter pointed out, they’ve hit well over the last month. It’s still a two batter lineup. And it’s not like one of them is a Trout or Goldschmidt. Nola’s even a decent bet to exceed six innings pitched. We can’t say that of the other rookies.
Stack Targets: Adam Conley, Matt Boyd, Williams Perez, John Danks
3. GB / FB Splits
The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.
Here are my favorites from today.
Ryan Howard, Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera, Freddy Galvis v Ian Kennedy
Andre Ethier, Yasmani Grandal v Jason Hammel
Avisail Garcia, Jose Abreu v Taijuan Walker
Chris Carter, Carlos Gomez v Kyle Gibson
Kevin Kiermaier v Edinson Volquez
C.J. Cron, Kole Calhoun, Albert Pujols, Mike Trout, Erick Aybar v Danny Salazar
4. SaberSim Hi/Lo
Wrong: The Tigers-Blue Jays game is projected to be very high scoring. The top four offensive players and eight of the top 16 belong to one of those two teams. Seems right to me. However, Russell Martin is projected to be the top catcher today. He’s playing through an injury. It’s coincided with awful offensive production. I recommend turning to a healthier alternative.
Right: We’ve already discussed Nola to some extent. SaberSim says he’s the 10th best pitcher on a day crowded with pitching. I concur with the aggressive ranking. Of the five rookies mentioned in section two, Heaney is rated the lowest. I also agree.
5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Medlen, Rea, Schoop, Taylor
Pitchers to Start: You have all the reason in the world to avoid Kris Medlen against the Rays. Just eight appearances and one start removed from his second Tommy John surgery, we should expect erratic production. However, there are a couple factors in his favor tomorrow. The Rays aren’t good against right-handed pitching. Medlen also appears to be in vintage form. His 92 mph fastball is, for now, the fastest average velocity of his career. Tropicana Field and the Royals elite pen should help to keep the damage to a minimum.
Also consider: J.A. Happ, Luis Severino, Mike Fiers
Pitchers to Exploit: A day after all the good pitchers pitch, it’s no surprise to see over a dozen exploits. The exploitiest is, uh, let’s go with Colin Rea. The Phillies have plenty of freely available talent, and they should do fine against a hittable righty. Rea lacks an out pitch or any swing-and-miss stuff. He does a decent job avoiding walks, but it’s not because of plus command. This should be a high scoring game with Adam Morgan on the other side of the ledger.
Also consider: Buck Farmer, Drew Hutchison, Joe Kelly, Ryan Vogelsong, Morgan, Chris Rusin, Keyvius Sampson, Matt Garza, Matt Wisler, Martin Perez, Jhoulys Chacin, Felix Doubront, Mat Latos
Hitters (power): I really wish Jonathan Schoop didn’t miss most of the season with an injury. He was one of my breakout picks for the season, and he’s made good on that promise. He’s slashing .299/.328/.516 with 10 home runs in 196 plate appearances. That’s an over-30 home run pace out of the middle infield.
There are problems with his profile – namely a massive 17.1 percent swinging strike rate. Aggression has kept his average high, but that’s usually exploitable by good pitchers. So long as he does alright in September, he’ll be an extremely popular offseason sleeper. Unfortunately, we won’t have a large enough sample to feel confident about anything.
Also consider: Chris Coghlan, Yasmany Tomas, Welington Castillo, Eddie Rosario, Khris Davis, Eugenio Suarez, C.J. Cron, Josh Harrison, Jedd Gyorko, Ryan Howard, Domonic Brown, Stephen Piscotty, Michael Conforto
Hitters (speed): Denard Span is back on the disabled list. Michael Taylor is the big winner – he’ll return to an everyday role. Strikeouts are an issue, but he’s managed 13 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and 55 RBI in 404 plate appearances. He looks like a present day Mike Cameron. He’s currently recovering from a banged up knee so maybe he isn’t the best speed play tomorrow.
Also consider: Billy Burns, Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Darnell Sweeney, Freddy Galvis, Ichiro Suzuki,
6. The Factor Grid
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
What’s your thought on C.Anderson against the As today?
Nice comments about Schoop but the “He was one of my breakout picks for the season” gloating seems unnecessary. Your great analysis of Schoop is what is really valuable to readers and makes you the expert, being “right” about him breaking out is just random luck.
After all, you also wrote up Steven Souza, Michael Taylor, Brandon McCarthy, Anthony Rendon, Kyle Seager, and so on… You said Prince Fielder and Carlos Gonzalez were hitters to avoid.
I don’t say this to attack you, I just am saying there’s always a tendency to pat ourselves on the back for our “skill” when a breakout pick pans out — and conversely claim “bad luck”/injury/whatever excuse when a prediction fails — so I prefer when the experts hold themselves to a higher standard and always bring it back to what is statistically valid and what is luck.
With Schoop you correctly pointed out his strengths, weaknesses and potential. That is the win for your readers. Your prediction success is really irrelevant and honestly, misplaced. Unless it leads, of course, to a statistical analysis why projections with Schoop’s profile pan out more often than not instead of it just lucky he ended up good while so many others with the same profile and breakout promise failed.
I think the fact that an analyst predicted a ‘breakout’ is a non-useless data point. If you’re trying to decide if what you’re looking at is a breakout or a fluke, it does make a difference if a bunch of analysts thought it’d happen, or if they all thought he’d stink and this is a big surprise. It’s certainly not ALL the information you’d want – I, for example, would want to know if the ‘why’ of the breakout prediction matched the ‘why’ of the improved performance – but it’s something.
And yes, the “why’s” do add up. He’s a power threat at a traditionally weak position. The aggression we’ve seen is both a problem and a solution to a bigger problem. The result is that we might get a decent BA with no OBP.
Good points, thanks for the replies.
>>” it does make a difference if a bunch of analysts thought it’d happen, or if they all thought he’d stink and this is a big surprise”
I still don’t get why does it make a difference? We all crowdsource all the expert opinions we can get our hands on but at the end of the day, does it matter if it turns out the “expert consensus” was right or wrong?
Why? So fantasy owners can say, “hey I did the right thing according to all the experts, I just got a fluke of bad luck this guy sucks now”?
Or conversely it leads the fantasy owner to say “haha look at my elite research skillz to pick the guy all the experts said would be good and now he turned out good!” I am the king of fantasy!
I think maybe we’re talking about two different flukes — 1. when a breakout player is a fluke or not, 2. versus the fluke of being right (or wrong) in predictions.
Just seems to me that phrases like “making promise on that breakout prediction” seem to cross over too much to the latter instead of keep the focus on the former.
I only mentioned the prediction in the context that I’m disappointed I won’t have a clear answer. We’ll be back in prediction land next season with a whole bunch of uncertainty. Except this time, lots of other analysts will have positive takes. Personally, I’d like some closure 🙂
Obviously there’s going to be a high whiff rate on “bold” choices. And I do try to stay bold.
Jesus, you must be fun at parties. It was just to give some context. It’s why it’s a shame he’s been injured, because we thought he had some promise and he’s shown it in his limited time. How could you even view it as gloating?
Also how could you get so worked up about it to type 200 words on the subject?
And finally “Your prediction success is really irrelevant” is absolutely false. I know analysts don’t often mention their misses, but if a guy is hitting a lot I want to know.
I’m a delight at parties and my carousing is legendary. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=doA4OOU04_k
Methinks the Nola/Blue Jays stack is gonna be quite popular today.
Salazar pulled a deGrom, ill. Got scratched for BAUER.
What do you make of the “experts” on the strategy sites constantly saying things like, “So and So is a reverse splits pitcher this season…”? Mostly noise?
Absolutely, reverse splits are almost always BS.
The exception is with changeup pitchers.