Chris Davis, Possibly Lingering Injuries and Looking Ahead

This is what Chris Davis does. He’s always going to swing hard, resulting in what Brooks Baseball lovingly refers to as a “disastrously high likelihood to swing and miss.” But sometimes he’s going to connect on those swings with pleasant results.

This approach lends itself to results like the past three seasons when his wRC+ bounced from 168 to 95 to 138. Plenty have tried to figure out exactly what went wrong with Davis in 2014, and now with the benefit of a rebound season’s worth of data, I think it’s worth seeing if we can learn anything.

To start, Davis hit a miserable .196 in 2014. Contributing was a BABIP about 80 points below his career rate. While many details of Davis’ underlying performance over the past three seasons are surprisingly consistent, HR/FB and Hard% are not. Both fell sharply in 2014, then bounced back this season. Combined with a dip in average fly ball and home run distance in 2014, and a subsequent rise this season, a picture of a batter struggling to hit with authority in 2014 starts to emerge.

Also playing a role was an increase in defensive shifts. But because his BABIPs against a shift and no shift went hand-in-hand in their drastic fall in 2014, I’m less inclined to think that’s the biggest factor.

Another big issue is how pitchers are now attacking Davis. He saw fewer fastballs in 2014 and struggled to adjust. This season he’s seeing even fewer fastballs, but handling offspeed stuff better. His performance against changeups really tells the story of the past three seasons. He was the best in baseball against them in 2013. He was fifth-worst in 2014. This season, he’s again performing well (though not near his 2013 levels). To me, that bounce-back indicates the struggles against offspeed pitches in 2014 were the symptom of something else.

The oblique injury he suffered in April sticks out as a prime culprit. It’s possible he rushed back since the injury kept him on the DL for the minimum 15 days, while Jeff Zimmerman’s data says the average days missed for that injury is 29. Maybe hitting with less authority was a sign the injury continued to bother him or caused him to alter his swing.

Because he’s bounced back this season while defenses are still shifting and pitchers are still pitching him carefully, I think the oblique injury may have played a bigger role in derailing Davis’ 2014 season than most realized. He returned quickly and then played the rest of the season, so the assumption was he was healthy and the focus for a cause of his struggles shifted elsewhere.

I’ve highlighted some players who are in similar situations to Davis last year. They were injured early in the season, then came back to play significant time at a level lower than we’re used to seeing. Keep them in mind during the offseason while trying trying to figure out exactly what went wrong and you might be able to grab some good values next season.

Yan Gomes – He returned from an MCL sprain on the short end of his expected DL stint. I’ll lean on Jeff Zimmerman again here and note Zimmerman’s initial reaction was that Gomes could be out until the All-Star break. Well, Gomes was back in May and has played poorly with a wRC+ outside the top 20 at catcher, increased strikeout rate and decreased ISO.

Yasiel Puig – The Dodgers sent Puig to the DL in late April after a hamstring injury had bothered him for a couple of weeks. He didn’t appear to rush back since he missed more than 30 days. Once back, Puig was less effective than usual with a wRC well below his career rate and three steals on six attempts. He reaggravated the injury Thursday.

Carlos Gomez – A bum hamstring sent Gomez to the DL in April and he’s also dealt with hip troubles through most of the season. As you would expect, the injuries have directly impacted his ability to run and he has 13 steals after topping 30 each of the past three seasons. Though things have improved in August with six steals on eight attempts.

Jonathan Lucroy – Lucroy broke his toe and while that seems like the least likely injury of this list to linger, he has struggled with an elevated strikeout rate and loss of power.

Adrian Beltre – It seemed obvious things would not go well once news broke Beltre would be returning to the Rangers two days after not being able to hold a bat with an injured thumb. He hit for almost no power immediately after returning, but has rebounded somewhat with a .220 ISO in August. Overall, the picture is not pretty and it will be interesting to see where he’s drafted next year considering his age.