The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for May 25

Agenda

1. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
2. Daily DFS
3. SaberSim Observations
4. Tomorrow’s Targets
5. Factor Grid

1. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Fourseasons nailed down the victory yesterday with the help of Stephen Strasburg, Justin Verlander, and Gregory Polanco. Kudos. I wanted to use Verlander, but I went with Price and Shark instead. They were fine. Offense was the bigger issue for me. I’ve updated the leaderboard.

We’re doing the eight game evening slate today – $2, 35 users on DraftKings. They’re running a new referral promotion. If you join using a referral link, we’ll both get a free $27 ticket. Today’s Payoff Pitch GPP has a $20,000 top prize.

I’m putting together an email list for the DK leagues. The emails will be sent via their interface. Let me know your username in the comments if you want to be added.

2. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Split action Wednesday. Seven games are early including all of the aceiest pitchers (not to be confused with athiest pitchers). Indomitable Jake Arrieta will be asked to diffuse a decent Cardinals lineup. They’re tough top to bottom. Carlos Martinez has the tall task of outdueling Arrieta against a superior offense.

Jose Quintana gets a Cleveland unit that mashed Chris Sale into an early exit. Corey Kluber is on the other side of that one. Aaron Nola actually has a good pitching matchup – Anibal Sanchez. Unfortunately, the Tigers are quite bashful – and not in the shy way.

To me, the sneaky, high value play is Colby Lewis. He began the season with four straight six inning starts. He’s rattled off seven innings in each of his last five starts. So long as he dodges Mike Trout, another seven inning outing looks like a cinch. The Rangers offense should supply run support against Hector Santiago.

Stack Targets: Jake Peavy, Sanchez, Dillon Gee, Tyler Duffey

Late: These night pitchers tho…woof. Steven Wright is the top of the stack cost-wise. No thanks. Hisashi Iwakuma is tempting with a matchup versus the Athletics. He’s a high variance starter these days. They’ll let him run the distance when he’s on, but he’s often hittable.

Matt Andriese should have the inside line on a win versus Justin Nicolino. If you want a clever fade, pick Marlins hitters tonight. Everybody, and I do mean everybody, will be stacking Rays against terrible Nicolino.

Junior Guerra has the much ballyhooed Braves matchup. Guerra only had a 4.63 ERA in Triple-A. He isn’t a lock to dominate a Triple-A quality lineup.

Speaking of fades, Chad Bettis drew the Red Sox flavored short straw. Bettis is good enough to toss a miracle start, and Wright is high variance enough that Bettis could even earn the win. Is it likely to happen? No. At least it’s not an absurd outcome.

Stack Targets: Zach Neal, Nicolino, Bettis, Mike Foltynewicz, Dan Straily, Rubby de la Rosa, Ivan Nova, Jeff Locke, Tyler Wilson, Collin McHugh

3. SaberSim Observations

I usually pluck the same top plays as SaberSim, but we have some disagreement today. After Arrieta, the tool likes Scott Kazmir, Sanchez, Kluber, and Iwakuma. Kaz is too mediocre for my tastes and Anibal is a disaster – even against the Phillies. Wright and Foltynewicz are next in line. How did Folty get a better rating than Guerra?

Astros, Angels, Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Yankees are among the most stackable teams per our favorite tool.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: If you’re beyond desperate, there are four pitchers to consider. Gray has the death matchup versus the Red Sox. At least the game is at sea level? Wisler and Peralta are opposite each other. Wisler is due for some unpleasant regression. Peralta is a dumpster fire. He belongs in the bullpen. Duffy may not last the five innings necessary to earn a win.

Kevin Gausman has the most talent of the bunch. At 46 percent owned, there’s a good chance you won’t be able to grab him. More importantly, you probably don’t really want to use him versus the Astros. Gausman has a 2.70 ERA (3.92 xFIP) with 7.36 K/9, 1.96 BB/9, and a 10.8 percent SwStr%.

Also consider: Jon Gray, Matt Wisler, Wily Peralta, Danny Duffy

Pitchers to Exploit: Given the painful fugliness of the above options, you could total try to sneak CC Sabathia through a start against the Blue Jays. You’d be batpoop to do so, but it’s not entirely inconsistent with my recommendations. My advice – use your streaming spots for hitters.

Also consider: Clay Buchholz, Miguel Gonzalez

Hitters (power): In a tiny sample, Brett Lawrie is hitting .324/.361/.559 versus left-handed pitching. He had a large split last year too, making him a believable lefty masher. He’s opposite Duffy. Remember, the Royals starter is unlikely to toss more than five innings so Lawrie may only see him once or twice.

Also consider: Kevin Pillar

Hitters (speed): Mallex Smith is showing a few signs of life. A few. I’ll roll the dice with him versus Peralta and a bad bullpen. I don’t think facing bad pitching helps Smith very much.

Also consider: Joey Rickard, Jimmy Rollins, Tony Kemp, Aaron Hicks

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The weather ratings are en fuego today!

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.