More Ottoneu Hitter ROS Projections

As I did last month, I’m once again going to take a look at the Depth Charts rest of season projections for hitters, and compare them against the preseason projections. Once again, all points per game figures and positional rankings are shown using ottoneu points scoring.

The ten hitters whose point per game projections have increased the most since the preseason (minimum 75 games projected rest of season):

PPG Increases ROS vs Preseason
Name Team Pos delta rosPPG prePPG rosRNK preRNK
Michael Saunders Blue Jays OF 0.65 5.14 4.49 OF29 OF83
Jackie Bradley Jr. Red Sox OF 0.52 5.11 4.59 OF32 OF75
Daniel Murphy Nationals 2B 0.52 5.41 4.90 2B5 2B8
Odubel Herrera Phillies OF 0.48 4.53 4.06 OF79 OF127
Yoenis Cespedes Mets OF 0.47 5.66 5.19 OF11 OF24
David Ortiz Red Sox 1B 0.45 6.52 6.08 1B3 1B6
Dexter Fowler Cubs OF 0.44 5.13 4.69 OF30 OF68
Mallex Smith Braves OF 0.44 3.89 3.45 OF123 OF141
Marcell Ozuna Marlins OF 0.43 5.11 4.68 OF33 OF70
Nick Castellanos Tigers 3B 0.42 5.07 4.65 3B10 3B17

Have you noticed how well Michael Saunders has hit over the first two months (.400 wOBA)? Well the projections have, and he’s gone from a replaceable bench outfielder in ottoneu, to an above average starter. Despite a lower rest of season projection, Jackie Bradley Jr. has been even better than Saunders, with a .434 wOBA in 2016 and a .396 wOBA over the past calendar year. That performance is more in line with a top fifteen outfielder, rather than the top thirty projection Bradley currently has rest of season, so I have a feeling his projection isn’t done rising. Another outfielder on this list that also had a middling preseason projection is Odubel Herrera, who’s validated the Phillies selection of him in the Rule V draft last season with a .391 wOBA, but as good as he’s been his poor preseason projection has anchored his ROS projection enough that he’s only projected to be a top 80 outfielder.

Three members of this past off-season’s free agent class also appear on this list, led by Daniel Murphy. Murphy has taken well to the move to Nationals Park, and now projects as a top five second basemen. Unlike his former teammate in New York, Yoenis Cespedes didn’t actually change teams, and that probably helps soften the loss of Murphy for Mets fans, as Yoenis has shown power like he never has before to the tune of a .445 wOBA. That’s good enough for him to project as a top 12 outfielder rest of season. Another free agent outfielder that ultimately resigned with his old team is Dexter Fowler, who has been one of the best outfielders in ottoneu in the early going and has seen his projected ranking rise 38 spots, taking him from a fringe starter to a top thirty option.

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention David Ortiz and his success so far during his farewell tour, as he has hit so well that some are wondering whether he can really hang up his hat after this season. He’s now firmly entrenched as a top three first baseman rest of season.

Finally, two post-hype young players have been delivering on their promise, as Marcell Ozuna and Nick Castellanos have rewarded owners that had patience in them. Ozuna has made a very similar rise in projections as Fowler, as he projected as a top bench option in the preseason and now looks like a solid starter. Castellanos was the 17th ranked third baseman in the preseason, and that was with a relatively weak set of options at the position, but now projects in the top ten at the hot corner.

Presented without commentary, here is the list of the ten hitters with the largest decreases in points per game projections:

PPG Decreases ROS vs Preseason
Name Team Pos delta rosPPG prePPG rosRNK preRNK
Russell Martin Blue Jays C (0.51) 4.21 4.72 C21 C7
Carlos Gomez Astros OF (0.43) 4.45 4.88 OF84 OF43
Justin Upton Tigers OF (0.43) 5.33 5.76 OF21 OF13
Mark Teixeira Yankees 1B (0.42) 4.80 5.22 1B23 1B17
Erick Aybar Braves SS (0.38) 3.55 3.93 SS49 SS36
Joey Votto Reds 1B (0.38) 6.12 6.50 1B5 1B3
Prince Fielder Rangers 1B (0.38) 5.10 5.48 1B18 1B9
Jason Heyward Cubs OF (0.34) 5.03 5.37 OF38 OF20
Ramon Flores Brewers OF (0.33) 4.45 4.78 OF83 OF57
Miguel Sano Twins 3B (0.33) 5.52 5.85 3B5 3B4

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Justin is a life long Cubs fan who has been playing fantasy baseball for 20+ years, and an ottoneu addict since 2012. Follow him on Twitter @justinvibber.

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Trey Baughn

Castellanos is interesting: I tried selling high a couple weeks ago thinking his BABIP skills would eventually crater but I’m not so sure anymore. Looks like some real changes.
Sano’s name on the 2nd table can’t feel good to those who invested heavily this winter, but he seems like he could be one of those guys who could turn his season around quickly once things click. Having to play OF is probably a factor here on his offensive game.