The Daily Grind: Contrarian Failures

Tonight’s main slate has 12 games. We’ll focus on the big group. Obvious MVP Eric Thames is not in the correct time slot. You’ll have to find another first baseman today.

AGENDA

1. Admitting Faults
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Contrarian Picks
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. Admitting Faults

I’ll be honest, I have no eye for selecting contrarian picks. Yesterday, I thought Kershaw’s must-use status would reduce ownership of Coors Field folks and Mike Trout. Oh how very wrong. In large GPPs, Bryce Harper was still 25 percent owned despite a crazy $6,100 price tag. Mike Trout was over 15 percent owned. Daniel Murphy and Trea Turner were in the 10 to 12 percent owned range. I personally rostered my bargain picks – 19 percent owned Mike Moustakas and seven percent owned Jedd Gyorko. I guess I got one right.

In recognition of my inability to accurately select good, unpopular players, I have created a Twitter poll. Please vote on the future of this column!

This poll is for readers of The Daily Grind.

For which topic would you prefer a section?

— Brad Johnson (@BaseballATeam) April 26, 2017

2. Weather Reports

St. Louis makes the list as a near-future rain out. They have an awkward to reschedule matchup with the Blue Jays. Chicago’s also sitting on a 35 percent chance for storms all afternoon, but at least they aren’t in the main contest.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: Today’s pitcher list is deep and varied. Noah Syndergaard, Jon Lester, and Johnny Cueto are the aces of the day. Remember, Carlos Martinez’s game will be postponed according to the current weather report. Lester and Cueto haven’t pitched to their price tags, but it’s only a matter of time. Meanwhile, Thor has an easy matchup versus the Braves.

James Paxton’s scoreless streak ended with a clunker his last time out. He remains hugely talented, and he’s opposed by a much diminished Tigers lineup. One that still scored 19 runs last night. I have a theory that teams perform worse after scoring a butttonload of runs.

Dylan Bundy has pitched well all season. I have a sort of personal crusade against his cutter though. I’m not saying he should stop throwing it. Rather, he should call it by what it is – a slider or slutter or baby curve. I’m certain of one thing, it’s not really a cutter.

Luis Severino is pitching to his potential, but I don’t want him against the Red Sox. He dominated the Rays and White Sox. I have less faith in his ability to drub the Bostonians.

Sean Manaea is good. He’s facing the L.A. Trout. Matt Shoemaker is fine. He’s opposed by an Oakland roster that couldn’t plate runs against Jesse Chavez or J.C. Ramirez. Pitiful.

Other bargain options include Alex Wood at AT&T Park, Alex Cobb at Baltimore, Daniel Norris hosting the M’s

Stack Targets: Rick Porcello, Tyler Glasnow, Tanner Roark, Mat Latos, Hector Santiago, Tyler Chatwood, Trevor Cahill

4. Contrarian Picks

Stars: Vince Velasquez remains high priced despite terrible early results. He’s the perfect GPP gamble. VV has the stuff to outperform Syndergaard when everything clicks.

Jonathan Lucroy is $4,000, hasn’t played particularly well, and is hidden by some less shiny alternatives.

When Tommy Joseph got going last year, it was against left-handed pitching. Perhaps he can jump start versus Wei-Yin Chen.

Brian Dozier has a Coors Field price tag at The Glob. He mashes lefties, although it should be noted that Cole Hamels is not a normal lefty.

Bargains: Maybe Alex Wood is overlooked because he’s opposite Cueto and a contact-heavy Giants lineup. I’m a big fan of Wood. I mean, I would like to pay for Wood… This isn’t working.

Justin Turner is awful cheap. Yeah, he has a bad matchup, but he’s much too good to cost $3,200.

I think I use Chris Owings every day. Pretend you didn’t read this one. Instead, look at Taylor Motter’s billion home runs. He’s facing a southpaw too.

5. SaberSim Says…

Syndergaard, Velasquez, Wood, Lester, and Shoemaker top the pitcher list. It seems SaberSim thinks this is a day to pursue volatility. Harper, Turner, Charlie Blackmon, Arenado, and Adam Eaton are the top bats. Coors Field dominates the top 25.

6. The Daily Grind Invitational

While I whiffed on the popularity of Coors bats globally, they actually were barely used in yesterday’s invitational. AsylumErmine won with nary a Rockie or National. Instead, Kershaw, J.C. Ramirez, A.J. Pollock, Alex Avila, and Miguel Sano shared the burden of victory. It’s the second day in a row with a terrible Angels starter supplying a gem. The leaderboard is updated.

Today’s contest is on DraftKings.