Bullpen Report: April 25, 2017
A couple of postponed games and blowouts but here’s a few notes on the bullpens last night…
• The Rays used five pitchers for a two hit shutout against the Orioles tonight, which was capped off by Alex Colome’s fifth save. Colome took very kindly to the bullpen full time last year posting career bests in his strikeout rate and walk rates but the strikeouts have eluded him early on this year. It’s only been 10 innings but Colome has a meager five strikeouts and a swinging strike percentage of 8.2%, well below last season’s 15.1%. This isn’t to say that Colome could fall drastically in the same way I spoke about Brandon Kintzler last night, but his .179 BABIP might be making his owners overrate his standing among the elite relievers. Colome’s a good closer and I wouldn’t be mining for his backups but his shiny ERA is a bit misleading thus far. I expect him to continue to have a solid year but I would love to see his whiff percentage/strikeouts increase over his next few outings.
• The Cubs also pitched a shutout tonight, taking down the Pirates 1-0. Kyle Hendricks went six and then handed the ball off to Koji Uehara, Hector Rondon, and Wade Davis in that order. We were wondering where Hector Rondon was earlier this season but it looks like he might be right back in the thick of it in Chicago. We had Pedro Strop on the grid but he hasn’t pitched since April 21st and has a 8.53 BB/9. I think Rondon might have surpassed him in the pecking order and I’ve made the change on the grid. Rondon’s walk rate leaves a lot to be desired (5.40 BB/9) but he now has 11 strikeouts against five walks in 8.1 innings this year supporting a 1.08/3.64/3.82 ERA/FIP/xFIP line.
• Roberto Osuna blew a one-run lead in the ninth after allowing two hits and an earned run. In the offseason I was touting him as someone who could make a leap to the elite but he’s been shaky since returning from injury. He has yet to walk a batter though and his .412 BABIP and 57.1 LOB% is likely why his ERA is 5.40, albeit in only five innings pitched. Still, his SwStr% is down to 10% from a career 14.7% and his Zone Contact percentage is at 93.1% from a career rate of 79.9%. This is probably due to some decline in fastball velocity which stands at 94.4 mph from 95.7 mph last year. Normally that’s within the realm of normal, especially considering Osuna missed some time with injury but with the new measurement on velocities that’s closer to a 2+ mph drop which is more worrisome.
It’s obviously a ridiculously small sample here but while Osuna has looked a tad unlucky he’s also getting hit harder than he has before. If his velocity doesn’t creep up in May then it might be worth wondering if he’s 100% healthy.
• Santiago Casilla blew his first save this year, giving up a home run to Mike Trout in the 10th inning. As far as blown saves go, having Trout beat you is pretty defensible and I don’t think this moves the needle for the A’s order of operations in the late innings. For what it’s worth, Ryan Madson received the loss allowing the go ahead run in the 12th and Sean Doolittle pitched a perfect ninth (the game was tied then). It’s still likely that Doolittle would receive a save chance if/when the order is lefty heavy but for now Casilla is still the primary closer in this minor carousel.
• David Hernandez is back in action, pitching for the Angels with Huston Street and Cam Bedrosian sidelined. In a tie game last night, Parker had the eighth inning and Hernandez the ninth, which might make you think he’s ahead in the pecking order but it’s looking like Bud Norris is their closer with Parker pitching the standard set up inning last night.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias
Fangraphs shows Colome’s usage has changed a bunch so far this year.
2016: 52.1 FB% 47.2 SL%
2017: 28.3 FB% 71.7 SL%
The velocity is higher, but that might just be the reconfiguration. Also, some sliders might be mislabeled cutters.
Thanks for the tip. Strange as well to see increased offspeed and decrease in his whiffs, maybe he should revert back.
Thank you for the wonderful write ups.
I don’t see how Treinen could still be on here. That dumpster fire has a 7+ BB/9 to go with his near 10 ERA. Maybe he gets back to the 9th inning in some sort of 20-1 massacre. Literally anyone gets a save chance before him.
My understanding was the ‘Second’ column wasn’t for who’s 3rd-most-likely to get saves this week, but 3rd-most-likely to be ‘Da Man’ a month or two down the line. If Treinen fixes his problems and becomes what he was the past 2 years, I’d see him as the most likely guy on their current roster to again be given a shot if, say, Kelley gets hurt and Glover fizzles.
There’s no hard and fast rule with the rankings. First chair is definitely next in line but 2nd chair is a bit hazy. Dependent on the team/situation it’s a bit of a combination of who’s setting up the setup as well as higher chance of saves. Koji Uehara seems to be the 7th inning guy if you will, but it might be someone else who would get saves if a few guys got hurt, as he’s 43 and likely not going to carry that load.
With Treinen, the rest of the Nats pen is pretty mediocre or a lefty, so while some others might see work before him in the 7th or 8th innings, his long term save potential on the team is still probably higher…until they make a move.
Really? Who gets a save opp before him? Homers McBlanton? Ollie Perez? Enny Romero, who barely has the zone on a good day? The only non-dumpster fire relievers have been Sammy Solis who is on the DL and Matt Albers who is 50 years old and had an ERA above 6 last season. Sadly, Treinen is indeed our third-best reliever.
Edit: Actually Solis has sucked too. Say hello to your closer of the future, Matt Albers!
Treinen’s last 3 appearances: 2 IP, 10 hits, 5 er, 3 bb, 1 K. This man should be in the minors to figure himself out.
You might be right but Corey Patterson shouldn’t have led off in 2005 on the Cubs. You never know what Dusty is thinking!
Familia is still not the “closer”? I guess they’re giving him another week of ramping up? I don’t get it
This can probably be changed. The Mets haven’t used him yet as a “closer” but likely because it hasn’t arrived yet. He hasn’t pitched since the 23rd. I’ll tell the guy for today to make the switch most likely.
I would also take a look at Familia’s walk rates moving forward. He’s thrown a lot of innings the last few years but his dominant year (2015) was a possible career year for walk rate. Luckily his velo seems right in line so it’s nice to see he’s not struggling there compared to some others.
Pretty safe to say Familia is the closer. He has had a couple appearances already to shake off the rust. The Mets just haven’t had any save chances.
Purely looking for most saves rest of season, and I have very limited moves so I can’t do a ton of adds/drops. How would you rank these options: Glover, Doolittle, Wilson, Benoit, Norris, Nate Jones.
Oof that’s tough:
1) Glover
2) Norris
3) Doolittle
4) Wilson
5) Benoit
6) Jones
There isn’t much difference although I think glover and Norris will more assuredly get you saves now. Wilson could be the best if K-Rod keeps struggling. Benoit is still lingering and although DRob could be moved, Jones could as well.
Wonderful. Thank you, appreciate the advice and the prompt answer.
Interesting that all of Minnesota’s bullpen is green, but the team itself is yellow. Is that intentional irony, a statement about bullpen stability being undermined by the rest of the team?
I think he was trying to suggest something about the duality of man, sir.
The what?
The duality of man. The Jungian thing, sir.
Whose side are you on, son?
I’m sure you guys will be all over this in the next BR since it happened after you wrote this one, but Glover to the DL. I wonder if Dusty is worried enough about Kelley’s durability to still split his closing with another RP (Albers? Perez? Enny? Blanton? Treinen? Dusty’s bullpen usage has already been hilariously unpredictable, all 8 RP’s who have pitched in the Nats bullpen so far this season either have at least one hold or save.) or if he’ll leave Kelley to it.