The 2024 Most Polarizing Starting Pitchers — A Review

Last week, I reviewed the most polarizing hitters in NFBC leagues in early March and determined whether the hitter’s ultimately ranked closer to their ADP, minimum pick, or maximum pick. It was pretty ugly, with nine of 13 ranking closer to their maximum pick, two closer to their ADP, and two to their minimum pick. Now let’s flip on over to the most polarizing starting pitchers in those same leagues, in drafts through March 9. Will the bulls for this group of pitchers end up faring better than they did for the hitters? Let’s find out.

Nope, this ended up even worse! Obviously, the sample size is small, with 14 pitchers on this list and just one season’s worth of data, but it sure feels like maybe you should just cross out the players that make the most polarizing list each draft season! This time, just two of the 14 finished closer to their minimum picks, while none of them finished closer to their ADP. Drafters valued all these pitchers wrong. Let’s now discuss the names.

Incredibly, the top three names on the list ended up pitching a total of 14.1 innings this season. 14.1 innings from all three starters combined! I always joke that the percentage of starting pitchers I mention in my articles that miss a significant chunk of time to injury has got to be higher than the percentage of all pitchers that miss time due to injury. This showing here by Strider, Senga, and Giolito further confirms my apparent curse!

It’s highly likely that the difference in minimum and maximum pick for Strider likely had more to do with how each particular league valued starting pitching, rather than a disagreement on his projection for the season. I would never, ever draft a starting pitcher first overall, and probably never draft one in the first round at all. Not because I don’t think one could earn that value, I just think I’d fall too far behind in hitting, and I find it easier to draft breakout starters later than breakout hitters.

Senga will be 32 years old already next year, but after a completely lost season, perhaps he ends up undervalued next year. Though, with just a 28% CSW% in 2023, I doubt that 29.1% strikeout rate is repeatable. Lucas Giolito partially tore his UCL at the beginning of spring training, but ultimately didn’t need TJ surgery, just a run of the mill elbow procedure. He’s still expected to miss the first half of the season, and coming off two seasons with a near 5.00 ERA, who knows if he’ll even be fantasy relevant ever again, after a sterling three season run making good on his former top prospect status.

Tarik Skubal was the best fantasy starting pitcher in baseball this year and after last year’s half season breakout, it’s not all that surprising. Last year’s strikeout rate surge corresponded with a velocity jump, and amazingly, his velocity shot up again this year. While his strikeout rate did decline a bit, the fact he not only sustained the increased velocity, but increased it further, makes me more confident that he’s here to stay as arguably the top fantasy starter.

Yikes, Kevin Gausman dealt with shoulder issues during spring training and he was never consistently right all season. When I say consistently, I mean that his velocity really bounced around from start to start, as did his SwStk% and strikeouts. Every time he would have a dominant outing to make you think the elite version has returned, he follows it up with a meh or stinker of a start with a weak strikeout total. His strikeout really collapsed this year, so he’s going to be a real wild card next season. Even though he finished with an acceptable 3.83 ERA, this was not the Gausman anyone drafted. I’ll wait for spring training to decide his rebound potential.

Coming back from TJ surgery, Walker Buehler returned to the Dodgers’ rotation in early May. He then hit the IL with a hip ailment, then worked on his mechanics back in the minors, before finally being activated after missing just over two months. He ended up throwing just 75.1 innings, and delivered his weakest professional performance…by far. His strikeout hit a career low, while his walk rate hit a career high, even though his fastball velocity was nearly in line with his previous two years, though down 1.8 MPH from his peak in 2020. I was never a big fan here given underwhelming SwStk% marks given his high strikeout rates, but he’s young enough to rebound, and perhaps his velocity comes back a bit. He’s a reminder that it’s a big risk to draft any starting pitcher returning from TJ surgery inside the top 100 picks, as you never know how the surgery has changed them.

The news that Gerrit Cole would be getting an MRI on his elbow came out on the exact day my most polarizing pitchers article was published. So clearly his ADP hadn’t yet been affected by the injury that ultimately delayed his season start until mid-June. Over 95 innings, he posted his lowest strikeout rate since 2017 — his last year on the Pirates, and before he became the elite version of himself we all know him as. His walk rate also increased to its highest since 2018. His fastball velocity dropped to its lowest since 2017 as well, and the first time it sat below 96 MPH since then. How much of that was a result of his elbow injury and how much is just his advancing age is anyone’s guess. He’ll be an interesting guy to value next year.

Zack Wheeler is the second name on this list that actually finished closer to his ADP, as the crowd nearly nailed his end of season ranking. He’s one of the guys who I’m really not sure how he’s been so good, as his CSW% has been consistently mediocre, and doesn’t benefit from either an extreme FB% or GB%. So he has never ended up on my team, and definitely won’t next year coming off a career best ERA at age 34. He might very well post another sub-3.00, but I’m just not going to be willing to pay the price for a mid-30s guy with a sub-28% CSW% for three straight seasons, and only one mark of at least 28% in his entire career, which was at that exact mark.

As is the case for many guys on this list, Zac Gallen also missed time to injury, and saw both his ERA and SIERA rise versus the last two seasons. His strikeout rate fell to a career low, while his walk rate jumped back up after two seasons of improvement from his 2021 mark. His fastball velocity was good though, but this is another skill set that just doesn’t excite me, as the stuff just isn’t dominant enough for me given the mediocre SwStk% marks.

It says a lot about Tyler Glasnow that he just recorded his highest seasonal innings count…at just 134. Naturally, he got injured again, but at least he gave his fantasy owners more innings than ever before until finally succumbing to the IL. He makes for an ideal shallow league target in which replacement level is stronger, as you’ll get an elite pitcher for a non-elite price, and might be able to do a decent job of filling in his slot when he inevitably hits the IL again.

Surprise, surprise, yet another injury cost a pitcher on this list a bunch of starts, this time former top prospect Grayson Rodriguez. He pumped up his strikeout rate and SwStk%, pushing his ERA below 4.00, but all the missed time killed his end of season ranking. His velocity did dip, though, so that’s something to watch, but it clearly didn’t impact his ability to miss bats.

Corbin Burnes was one of the few names on this list who did not miss any time to injury, and yet he still ranked just 65th overall, while his max pick was only at 40. After his strikeout rate plunged last year, I was pretty surprised to see how early he was still being drafted. Amazingly, his strikeout rate fell even further this season, but a low BABIP saved the day for the third year in a row. His xERA suggests he’s mostly deserving of the low BABIP, but the collapse in his strikeout rate is baffling and has still taken a bite out of his value. What’s odd is that his cutter velocity, his most used fastball type, actually hit a career high this year! He even threw it less often to focus more on his slider and curveball, which you would usually think would be a positive for a pitcher’s strikeout rate. I would definitely expect some sort of strikeout rate rebound, but is it back into the mid-20% range, like where he landed in 2023, or back up to the high 20% and low 30% range like pre-2023? It’s anyone’s guess.

Luis Castillo made it almost a full healthy season, and yet still ranked just 246th overall. His strikeout rate fell to its lowest since 2021, as both his SwStk% and CSW% hit career lows. His fastball velocity fell to a career low as well, and the first time it dropped below 96 MPH since 2018. Finally, w weak Mariners offense hampered his win total, which finished at just 11. I’ll be watching to see if his velocity is better next spring before deciding if and how much he might rebound.

Any foreign player making their MLB debut is going to be polarizing, as it’s always more difficult to project their performance. So, it wasn’t surprising to find Yoshinobu Yamamoto make this list, but overall, drafters were quite bullish on him, even the max pick leaguers. The good news is that Yamamoto was everything we could have hoped for, posting a strong strikeout rate and CSW%, averaging over 95 MPH with his fastball, displaying excellent control, and translating all that into results by finishing with an ERA right at 3.00. The bad news is injury cost him a significant chunk of starts, leaving him with just 18 and 90 innings recorded. Though his fastball has better than average velocity, it wasn’t good at generating whiffs, but every other pitch of his posted a double digit SwStk%. It’s that kitchen sink of weapons that makes me feel like he’s a safe bet next year, though some regression on his 3.00 ERA should still be expected.