The 2015 Hitter xBABIP Underachievers

Seemingly every year, we try to develop a new hitter xBABIP equation. Obviously, the goal is to improve upon the previous iteration because BABIP is really hard to predict. We can be reasonably sure that some hitters own high BABIP, average BABIP or low BABIP skills, but that’s about it. In any given year, the metric could swing wildly. As more granular data continues to be made available to us, we could use it to keep bettering our ability to predict BABIP and understand which underlying skills drive it.

I took a stab at it a year ago when I worked on “Developing the Bestest xBABIP Equation Yet” (FG+). It certainly was the best yet, but we still had more than enough room for improvement. Alex Chamberlain took on the challenge and made some changes to my formula by incorporating the new Soft%/Med%/Hard% and Pull%/Cent%/Oppo% classifications. The r-squared was only a slight upgrade compared to my results, but it was cleaner and I liked it better. So it’s now the official xBABIP equation of the Pod Projections.

So which fantasy relevant players underperformed their xBABIP marks the most in 2015, and presumably have some significant batting average upside in 2016? Let’s find out…

2015 Hitter xBABIP Underachievers
Name BABIP xBABIP Diff
Jed Lowrie 0.233 0.314 -0.081
Albert Pujols 0.217 0.279 -0.062
Hanley Ramirez 0.257 0.314 -0.057
Jayson Werth 0.253 0.309 -0.056
Jay Bruce 0.251 0.306 -0.055
Ryan Zimmerman 0.268 0.318 -0.050
Jonathan Lucroy 0.297 0.347 -0.050
David Ortiz 0.264 0.313 -0.049
Wilson Ramos 0.256 0.303 -0.047
Billy Hamilton 0.264 0.310 -0.046

Obviously, this was a career low BABIP for Jed Lowrie. A return to the Athletics isn’t a positive move, but he should play every day, may very well hit second, and has probably been forgotten about after an injury riddled season and being pushed aside by some young hotshot named Carlos Correa. Should yield some profit in AL-Only leagues.

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For as great as his career has been offensively, Albert Pujols has rarely demonstrated above average BABIP skills. He’s a dead pull hitter and pops it up too frequently. But he’s never posted a BABIP this low! In fact, his second lowest mark was .258 just two seasons ago in 2013 and last year marked his third lowest at .265. He’s clearly moving in the wrong direction. Combined with his age and the fact that he could miss some time early after offseason foot surgery, he’s not exactly a candidate to be undervalued at draft day thanks to a suppressed BABIP.

Oh Hanley Ramirez, what a bizarre season you just endured. You redefined what it meant to be a bad fielder, you outperformed your xHR/FB, and now you have underperformed your xBABIP? What does one xDO? Hanley owns a .327 career BABIP and is hitting in a park that typically boosts BABIP, thanks to a 104 RHH singles park factor and 113 doubles factor. While I wouldn’t forecast a rebound to his career mark, especially given his age, there’s a good chance he bounced back over the .300 level again and enjoys a nicely improved batting average.

Jayson Werth is 36 and coming off an injury-riddled season. You know what that means? Opportunity! Though the steals may have finally dried up, his skills remain solid and his BABIP should jump. He actually sports the same career BABIP as Ramirez, but since he’s older and plays half his games in a less favorable park for base hits, he shouldn’t be expected to enjoy as significant a rebound.

Surprisingly, Jay Bruce is the first lefty on this list that has clearly been hurt by the shift. Over his career, he has pulled 63.1% of his ground balls and actually set a new career high in 2015 with a 70.7% pull rate. It sure makes it easy for fielders to know where to position themselves. Unfortunately, it has been far to difficult to incorporate the effects of shifting into an xBABIP equation, so these guys are going to be the outliers that might not rebound as xBABIP suggests. While I would imagine Bruce does improve somewhat, I would not bet on a .300+ mark.

I already opined that Ryan Zimmerman would be a “huge profit center for his owners” as one of the leaders in the standard deviation of distance of his fly balls and home runs. His appearance as an xBABIP underachiever makes him even more attractive as a rebound candidate. Before his .268 2015 BABIP, which easily set a new career low, Zimmerman had amazingly posted a BABIP of at least .308 for seven straight seasons. And in eight of his nine previous full seasons, he has posted a .308+ BABIP. Yes, his health has been a question mark, but since that’s going to be built into his cost, there’s going to be ample room for profit.

You know who was number one on my list of hitters with major HR/FB rate upside who also appears above? Jonathan Lucroy. Now since 2011, he has slightly underperformed his xBABIP overall and a .347 mark for a catcher who doesn’t pop up as infrequently as Joe Mauer did when he was a high BABIPer is never going to be reached. This xBABIP doesn’t so much hint at dramatic upside, but rather that Lucroy’s bat is A-OK, despite a wOBA that hit its lowest mark since 2011.

Aaaaaaand there’s that other left-hander who has been bit by the shift, David Ortiz. The ageless wonder has pulled his grounders nearly 70% of the time in each of the past two seasons, so like Bruce, cannot be expected to rebound to anywhere close to his xBABIP. This just gave me an idea for a new iteration of xBABIP that incorporates Pull% for grounders. The data is not currently available on the FG leaderboards, so I’ll see what I can do.

Wilson Ramos has dramatically underperformed his xBABIP for three seasons running now, so there must be something going on here not being captured. Perhaps one of the reasons is that he’s sloooooooooooow, as his 0.9 Spd mark ranked in a tie for dead last among qualified hitters. As we know, equations don’t perform well at the extremes, so it’s possibly that the formula doesn’t subtract enough BABIP points to account for his complete lack of speed.

And there’s my good friend Billy Hamilton! The name I will never live down after my famous second round selection of his in LABR last year. A player with his speed has no business posting a .264 BABIP. Of course, a player with his speed also has no business hitting ground balls only about 42% of the time. He should be over 50% and utilizing his speed to beat out grounders. He doesn’t possess enough power to be hitting so many fly balls. Remember what I said above about Ramos and equations handling extremes? Hamilton posted a Hard% that would have ranked fifth worst if he qualified for the leaderboard. Then again, his xBABIP in 2014 was identical to 2015, and that year his actual BABIP was .304, so maybe it was all just bad luck. He’ll be undervalued in 2016 and don’t be surprised if he finds his way onto my LABR team again (just not taken in the second round this time!).

Because I know you’re going to ask for it, here is the entire list of hitters with at least 200 plate appearances that either underachieved their xBABIP or hit it right on the head.

2015 Hitter xBABIP Underachievers
Name BABIP xBABIP Diff
Eric Campbell 0.230 0.343 -0.113
Will Middlebrooks 0.237 0.320 -0.083
Jed Lowrie 0.233 0.314 -0.081
Jon Jay 0.246 0.322 -0.076
Alexi Amarista 0.232 0.306 -0.074
Chase Utley 0.230 0.303 -0.073
Justin Smoak 0.254 0.321 -0.067
Sam Fuld 0.235 0.297 -0.062
Albert Pujols 0.217 0.279 -0.062
Casey McGehee 0.243 0.303 -0.060
Cliff Pennington 0.253 0.313 -0.060
Ryan Howard 0.272 0.331 -0.059
Luis Valbuena 0.235 0.294 -0.059
Jose Ramirez 0.232 0.290 -0.058
Nick Swisher 0.228 0.286 -0.058
Hanley Ramirez 0.257 0.314 -0.057
Jayson Werth 0.253 0.309 -0.056
Jay Bruce 0.251 0.306 -0.055
Dustin Ackley 0.241 0.296 -0.055
Justin Maxwell 0.269 0.324 -0.055
Logan Morrison 0.238 0.291 -0.053
Carlos Ruiz 0.242 0.294 -0.052
Carlos Sanchez 0.270 0.322 -0.052
Ichiro Suzuki 0.257 0.308 -0.051
Matt Joyce 0.215 0.266 -0.051
Aaron Hill 0.253 0.303 -0.050
Ryan Zimmerman 0.268 0.318 -0.050
Jonathan Lucroy 0.297 0.347 -0.050
Steve Pearce 0.232 0.281 -0.049
David Ortiz 0.264 0.313 -0.049
Tyler Saladino 0.269 0.317 -0.048
Wilson Ramos 0.256 0.303 -0.047
Billy Hamilton 0.264 0.310 -0.046
David DeJesus 0.266 0.310 -0.044
Gordon Beckham 0.229 0.273 -0.044
Chris Coghlan 0.284 0.328 -0.044
Stephen Drew 0.201 0.245 -0.044
A.J. Ellis 0.265 0.308 -0.043
Danny Santana 0.290 0.333 -0.043
Alex Avila 0.278 0.320 -0.042
Paulo Orlando 0.291 0.333 -0.042
Pedro Alvarez 0.279 0.320 -0.041
Alex Guerrero 0.261 0.302 -0.041
Chris Carter 0.244 0.283 -0.039
Carlos Correa 0.296 0.335 -0.039
Mark Teixeira 0.246 0.285 -0.039
Victor Martinez 0.253 0.292 -0.039
Omar Infante 0.255 0.293 -0.038
Daniel Descalso 0.244 0.282 -0.038
Jimmy Rollins 0.246 0.284 -0.038
J.T. Realmuto 0.285 0.322 -0.037
Caleb Joseph 0.269 0.306 -0.037
Welington Castillo 0.263 0.299 -0.036
Brian McCann 0.235 0.271 -0.036
Jarrod Dyson 0.296 0.331 -0.035
Rene Rivera 0.230 0.265 -0.035
Ryan Flaherty 0.251 0.286 -0.035
Skip Schumaker 0.301 0.336 -0.035
Darin Ruf 0.268 0.302 -0.034
Aramis Ramirez 0.253 0.287 -0.034
Joe Mauer 0.309 0.342 -0.033
Aaron Hicks 0.285 0.318 -0.033
Tyler Moore 0.234 0.267 -0.033
Jose Bautista 0.237 0.269 -0.032
Chris Owings 0.305 0.337 -0.032
Ike Davis 0.272 0.304 -0.032
Giovanny Urshela 0.266 0.297 -0.031
Tim Beckham 0.279 0.310 -0.031
Jason Bourgeois 0.275 0.306 -0.031
Torii Hunter 0.258 0.288 -0.030
Adrian Gonzalez 0.294 0.324 -0.030
Alcides Escobar 0.286 0.316 -0.030
Daniel Murphy 0.278 0.308 -0.030
Mike Aviles 0.250 0.280 -0.030
Elvis Andrus 0.283 0.313 -0.030
Kyle Seager 0.278 0.307 -0.029
Elian Herrera 0.307 0.336 -0.029
Matt Kemp 0.311 0.339 -0.028
Evan Gattis 0.264 0.292 -0.028
Giancarlo Stanton 0.294 0.322 -0.028
Alexei Ramirez 0.264 0.292 -0.028
Jason Castro 0.280 0.307 -0.027
Chris Iannetta 0.225 0.252 -0.027
Russell Martin 0.262 0.289 -0.027
Domonic Brown 0.257 0.283 -0.026
Shane Victorino 0.272 0.297 -0.025
Josh Reddick 0.278 0.303 -0.025
Zack Cozart 0.258 0.282 -0.024
Seth Smith 0.298 0.322 -0.024
Andrelton Simmons 0.285 0.309 -0.024
Nick Ahmed 0.257 0.281 -0.024
Michael Morse 0.324 0.347 -0.023
Ryan Braun 0.322 0.345 -0.023
Peter Bourjos 0.263 0.286 -0.023
Curtis Granderson 0.305 0.328 -0.023
Jace Peterson 0.296 0.317 -0.021
Jean Segura 0.298 0.319 -0.021
Adrian Beltre 0.295 0.316 -0.021
Melky Cabrera 0.297 0.318 -0.021
Marlon Byrd 0.297 0.318 -0.021
Pablo Sandoval 0.270 0.290 -0.020
Geovany Soto 0.278 0.298 -0.020
Billy Butler 0.282 0.302 -0.020
Brandon Crawford 0.294 0.314 -0.020
Denard Span 0.318 0.338 -0.020
Matt Carpenter 0.321 0.341 -0.020
Brad Miller 0.307 0.326 -0.019
Trevor Plouffe 0.274 0.293 -0.019
Rajai Davis 0.308 0.327 -0.019
Brian Dozier 0.261 0.280 -0.019
Alex Rodriguez 0.278 0.297 -0.019
Lucas Duda 0.285 0.304 -0.019
Joc Pederson 0.262 0.281 -0.019
Freddie Freeman 0.321 0.339 -0.018
Ivan De Jesus 0.315 0.333 -0.018
Alberto Callaspo 0.269 0.287 -0.018
Miguel Montero 0.306 0.324 -0.018
Nolan Arenado 0.284 0.302 -0.018
Conor Gillaspie 0.266 0.284 -0.018
Carlos Santana 0.261 0.278 -0.017
Adam LaRoche 0.269 0.286 -0.017
Martin Maldonado 0.272 0.289 -0.017
J.J. Hardy 0.257 0.274 -0.017
Wilmer Flores 0.273 0.289 -0.016
Kyle Schwarber 0.293 0.309 -0.016
Anthony Rizzo 0.289 0.305 -0.016
Hernan Perez 0.309 0.325 -0.016
Abraham Almonte 0.299 0.315 -0.016
Ryan Hanigan 0.306 0.321 -0.015
Carlos Gonzalez 0.284 0.299 -0.015
Clint Robinson 0.298 0.313 -0.015
Yan Gomes 0.285 0.300 -0.015
Mike Zunino 0.239 0.254 -0.015
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.301 0.315 -0.014
Brandon Moss 0.285 0.299 -0.014
Alex Rios 0.294 0.308 -0.014
Khris Davis 0.285 0.299 -0.014
Howie Kendrick 0.342 0.356 -0.014
Brandon Phillips 0.315 0.329 -0.014
Nori Aoki 0.298 0.311 -0.013
Michael Taylor 0.311 0.324 -0.013
Yangervis Solarte 0.279 0.292 -0.013
Charlie Blackmon 0.325 0.338 -0.013
Kolten Wong 0.296 0.309 -0.013
Todd Frazier 0.271 0.283 -0.012
Robinson Cano 0.316 0.328 -0.012
Rusney Castillo 0.298 0.310 -0.012
Kevin Kiermaier 0.306 0.318 -0.012
Leonys Martin 0.270 0.282 -0.012
Hunter Pence 0.320 0.331 -0.011
Roberto Perez 0.304 0.315 -0.011
Jedd Gyorko 0.290 0.301 -0.011
Eric Sogard 0.283 0.294 -0.011
Kevin Plawecki 0.277 0.288 -0.011
Jordy Mercer 0.290 0.301 -0.011
Preston Tucker 0.274 0.284 -0.010
Edwin Encarnacion 0.267 0.277 -0.010
Kurt Suzuki 0.265 0.275 -0.010
Erick Aybar 0.300 0.310 -0.010
Will Venable 0.317 0.327 -0.010
Tucker Barnhart 0.294 0.304 -0.010
Brett Gardner 0.312 0.322 -0.010
Angel Pagan 0.310 0.319 -0.009
Neil Walker 0.306 0.315 -0.009
Gerardo Parra 0.325 0.334 -0.009
Gregory Polanco 0.308 0.317 -0.009
Dexter Fowler 0.308 0.317 -0.009
David Freese 0.310 0.319 -0.009
Cameron Rupp 0.281 0.290 -0.009
Ruben Tejada 0.315 0.324 -0.009
Jhonny Peralta 0.311 0.319 -0.008
Ben Zobrist 0.288 0.296 -0.008
Justin Turner 0.321 0.329 -0.008
Yadier Molina 0.295 0.303 -0.008
Mike Trout 0.344 0.352 -0.008
Stephen Vogt 0.290 0.298 -0.008
Cameron Maybin 0.316 0.324 -0.008
Mike Napoli 0.268 0.275 -0.007
Michael Bourn 0.315 0.322 -0.007
DJ LeMahieu 0.362 0.369 -0.007
Grady Sizemore 0.303 0.309 -0.006
Adam Jones 0.286 0.292 -0.006
Travis Snider 0.305 0.311 -0.006
Cory Spangenberg 0.344 0.350 -0.006
Ender Inciarte 0.329 0.335 -0.006
Avisail Garcia 0.320 0.326 -0.006
Yasmani Grandal 0.268 0.274 -0.006
Matt Duffy 0.336 0.342 -0.006
Justin Upton 0.304 0.309 -0.005
Eric Hosmer 0.336 0.341 -0.005
Clint Barmes 0.302 0.307 -0.005
Michael Brantley 0.318 0.322 -0.004
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 0.293 0.297 -0.004
Yasiel Puig 0.296 0.300 -0.004
Ryan Goins 0.304 0.308 -0.004
Kole Calhoun 0.304 0.308 -0.004
Michael Cuddyer 0.312 0.315 -0.003
Mark Canha 0.289 0.292 -0.003
Kelly Johnson 0.315 0.318 -0.003
George Springer 0.342 0.345 -0.003
Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.310 0.313 -0.003
Yonder Alonso 0.313 0.316 -0.003
Marcus Semien 0.312 0.314 -0.002
Salvador Perez 0.270 0.272 -0.002
Cesar Hernandez 0.342 0.344 -0.002
Austin Jackson 0.342 0.344 -0.002
Lorenzo Cain 0.347 0.349 -0.002
Juan Uribe 0.288 0.290 -0.002
Nick Castellanos 0.322 0.324 -0.002
Freddy Galvis 0.309 0.310 -0.001
Manny Machado 0.297 0.298 -0.001
Robinson Chirinos 0.270 0.270 0.000
Buster Posey 0.320 0.320 0.000
Juan Lagares 0.308 0.308 0.000
Didi Gregorius 0.297 0.297 0.000
Brandon Barnes 0.332 0.332 0.000
Shane Peterson 0.345 0.345 0.000
Brandon Guyer 0.303 0.303 0.000
Adam Lind 0.309 0.309 0.000
Chris Davis 0.319 0.319 0.000
Hank Conger 0.271 0.271 0.000
Marcell Ozuna 0.320 0.320 0.000





Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

16 Comments
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amg
10 years ago

Lowrie though won’t qualify at 2nd or SS in many leagues due to not playing enough games there in 2015 and isn’t as appealing as a 3B

johnnycuffMember since 2017
10 years ago
Reply to  amg

he’s probably starting at 2B for the A’s, so he’ll earn it a week or two into the season

Statistics Don't Lie
10 years ago

It seems inferred that we should generally expect regression to the mean – that is, over time, actual BABIP = xBABIP. Has it ever been tested to see whether that “correction” regularly happens in the following year?

What percentage of players have under-achieved or over-achieved their xBABIP in consecutive years? And for those that see a “correction” in the second year, is their deviation from xBABIP in the 1st year within 1.5 SD of the mean?

Without analysis to show multiyear correlations, we are still blindly guessing about the second year.

Cory Settoon
10 years ago

Of the top 5 players listed, Hanley is the only one with a FB% not over 42%. His was 29.6%

Rylan
10 years ago

I dont like how HRs are not counted in BABIP. If you’re crushing 40 HRs in a year, they are still hits. Some of these sluggers BAPIPs wouldnt look so bad is HRs were included.

bwMember since 2016
10 years ago
Reply to  Rylan

If it helps, try to look at BABIP as a number that just tries to isolate luck, and that there is no “good” BABIP. .270 and .340 can be equally valuable, if the .270 BABIP hitter is also hitting fly balls that turn into HR.

It’s a terrible thing for Billy Hamilton to have a .270 BABIP, but it’s great for Pujols. If Pujols got his BABIP up to .300 by hitting ground balls, he’d give up a lot more in HR.

cornflake5000
10 years ago
Reply to  Rylan

Batting average on “BALLS IN PLAY”…

strikeouts don’t count against it either…

There’s no luck involved with a HR, BB or K.

Try understanding what the stat is trying to say.

Ikker19
10 years ago
Reply to  cornflake5000

In my opinion there is luck when hitting a home run…..the park where the fly ball is hit is the luck factor…for example if a 405 foot fly ball is hit into the right field power ally in San Francisco it could be caught for an out….in every other ML park that same fly ball is a home run hit into the seats….in some parks well into the seats…..for the other extreme you’ve got the short porches at Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium that produce the homers where in most other parks those same fly balls would be outs.

Consequently, if luck is a factor of BABIP, then some home runs are lucky due to the dimensions of the parks where they are hit….just like a bloop is lucky because of where it was hit in relation to the skill of the individual defender or/and where the defense was positioned or a double off the fence is lucky because of the out field wall dimensions….both the bloop and the double are counted in the BABIP calculation but the home run is excluded. I suppose it comes down to how luck is defined….IMO some home runs involve luck just as other types of hits do.

Jeff
10 years ago

The paragraph about Jayson Werth doesn’t have his name in it.

alang3131982Member since 2016
10 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

the comment here missed the w in what.

cbb
10 years ago

I hate to go down this rabbit hole, but I think it missed the ‘t’ in ‘that’.

Ryan DC
10 years ago

2015 Nats RIP 🙁

As for Ramos, he is crazy slow and puts the ball on the ground waaaaay too much, so even though his hard-hit rate is (I assume) reasonably high, it doesn’t really do him any good. Guy hit into roughly eight-thousand double plays last year.

Robert J. BaumannMember since 2019
10 years ago
Reply to  Ryan DC

Yes but it’s cool that he set a single-season record for plate appearances!

Noah BaronMember since 2016
10 years ago

I can’t wait to see what happens here when we get to xBABIP overachievers, and FanGraphs explodes. Cubs fans in the comment section (and whoever runs the Steamer projections) won’t like what they see with Kris Bryant.

Speaking of regression...
10 years ago
Reply to  Noah Baron

Says a fan of the team that just overpaid for Cespedes…