Team Runs Analysis and Hitter Correlations, Part I
After every regular season, I review team-level runs scored and overall offensive production while the data is still fresh. The goal is to eventually identify positive outlier offenses for the upcoming fantasy season, which is usually much easier said than done. I walk through the story of each offense to find answers to questions that arise. Why did the Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays produce 20% fewer runs the season after their World Series appearances? How did the Nationals, White Sox, Pirates, and Rockies go from bottom-10 offenses in 2025 to top-10 offenses in 2026? What happened to the Phillies last season? Why are the Angels so awful? Other than the last question, none of these have simple answers. We generally know the season-long story of most offenses, but digging into the details can help uncover some helpful nuggets. This review and refresher is Part One.
The concept of “stacking” isn’t common or typically advisable in most leagues, as it is in Best Ball where there’s no management, or in DFS for a specific slate of games that day. Outside of those contexts, we aren’t intentionally trying to correlate players within an offense; we reserve it mostly for in-round tiebreaker scenarios that optimize our roster builds.For example, last season, selecting Drake Baldwin over Agustín Ramírez in the sixth round to correlate with a fifth-round Matt Olson. Baldwin and Olson were highly correlated before the season, with expectations that the duo would hit next to or close to one another in the Braves lineup. Baldwin batted first or second for most of the season while Olson batted third in 85% of his games. Though I can’t easily pull data on how many times Olson drove in Baldwin, we can assume that the duo was highly correlated based on their R/RBI totals and batting order.Now imagine you aren’t just a St. Louis Cardinals fan, but a savvy fantasy baseball manager who recognized that several Cardinals bats were ADP bargains and that they’d also be highly correlated, in the top four of the lineup for most of the season. You’d still have to get a lot of other things right in your draft and in-season FAAB, but you’d still be sitting pretty. Check out key, affordable hitters in four offenses that were mostly undervalued during last draft season:
| Team | Player | ADP | Final Rank | Final $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | Alec Burleson | 185 | 21 | $27.0 |
| Iván Herrera | 190 | 47 | $21.9 | |
| JJ Wetherholt | 216 | 136 | $11.6 | |
| Jordan Walker | 363 | 11 | $30.8 | |
| _ | _ | _ | _ | _ |
| Pirates | Bryan Reynolds | 208 | 67 | $17.8 |
| Brandon Lowe | 215 | 31 | $21.7 | |
| Ryan O’Hearn | 288 | 160 | $9.8 | |
| Jake Mangum | 404 | 227 | $5.6 | |
| _ | _ | _ | _ | _ |
| White Sox | Munetaka Murakami | 232 | 133 | $11.7 |
| Miguel Vargas | 273 | 22 | $27.1 | |
| Colston Montgomery | 272 | 207 | $6.8 | |
| Chase Meidroth | 372 | 107 | $13.7 | |
| _ | _ | _ | _ | _ |
| Nationals | James Wood | 57 | 20 | $27.5 |
| CJ Abrams | 77 | 7 | $33.3 | |
| Daylen Lile | 210 | 62 | $18.4 | |
| Luis García Jr. | 220 | 52 | $21.3 | |
| Nasim Nuñez | 336 | 258 | $4.0 | |
| Keibert Ruiz | 405 | 170 | $9.4 |
Final Rank: Fantasy Player Rater overall ranking (15tm)
Final $: Fantasy Player Rater roto dollars earned (15tm)
I recall wanting nothing to do with the top Washington Nationals hitters at their ADPs last preseason. That ended up being big mistake. I was in the majority there, but that’s usually not a good thing. James Wood’s second-half struggles and high strikeout rate factored too heavily into my opinion of him, which pushed him down my draft board. CJ Abrams felt like a batting average risk, with more downside than upside. Little did I know the impact new hitting coach Matt Borgschulte and his philosophy would have on them. Abrams was a top 10 roto player and Wood was the best roto producer until his injury and still finished among the top 17 hitters. Daylen Lile and Luis García Jr. (traded to NYY) were top 50 hitters; top 62 overall. Nasim Nuñez led the Majors in stolen bases with 49.
The Munetaka Murakami and Colson Montgomery combo would have tanked the batting average categories despite their combined tank-jobs. Most reasonable managers probably wouldn’t have compounded the BA risk of Murakami by also drafting Montgomery, unless they were really short on power at that point in the draft. Chase Meidroth was a beast after the All-Stark break (.286/.364/.479) and rookie Sam Antonacci was a rare in-season rookie hitter FAAB acquisition who earned over $10 in standard roto formats.
Most of us recognized that the Pirates would have a better offense in 2026 than in 2025, though the market had no clue the positive impact Brandon Lowe would have. Boring old Bryan Reynolds scored 100+ runs for the first time in his career. Imagine what may have been had Konnor Griffin not been hurt. Griffin is being drafted in the top 30 overall in early 2027 NFBC drafts.
Stacking and correlating has massive downside and can certainly backfire. Though there is much less downside when we’re targeting 200+ ADP hitters in an offense that is being undervalued. Ballpark changes can be a great advantage, too. I was quite bullish on Orioles and Royals hitters recently because of the dimension shifts that would benefit them. There were some reasonably priced Royals bats last season, but unfortunately, two of them (Maikel Garcia, Vinnie Pasquantino) missed big chunks of the season due to injuries that didn’t quickly heal.
The Blue Jays playing in minor league parks in 2021 was massively undervalued by the market. The quartet of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien and Teoscar Hernández pulled off some magic that season: all four finished among the top 10 overall hitters.
Targeting Athletics hitters in Sacramento in 2025 was a fruitful venture, where six hitters finished among the top 90 overall, though technically five since Nick Kurtz was an in-season acquisition. In the cases of both the 2021 Jays and 2025 A’s, most of the top producers were very affordable in drafts and auctions.
First, let’s look at each team’s runs per game average over the last four seasons:
| Rank | Team | Runs Per Game | _ | Rank | Team | Runs Per Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dodgers | 5.21 | _ | 16 | Nationals | 4.43 |
| 2 | Cubs | 4.94 | _ | 17 | Reds | 4.42 |
| 3 | Diamondbacks | 4.88 | _ | 18 | Mariners | 4.42 |
| 4 | Brewers | 4.85 | _ | 19 | Blue Jays | 4.42 |
| 5 | Braves | 4.81 | _ | 20 | Tigers | 4.36 |
| 6 | Yankees | 4.75 | _ | 21 | Cardinals | 4.32 |
| 7 | Phillies | 4.74 | _ | 22 | Rockies | 4.25 |
| 8 | Red Sox | 4.63 | _ | 23 | Royals | 4.25 |
| 9 | Orioles | 4.62 | _ | 24 | Giants | 4.23 |
| 10 | Astros | 4.62 | _ | 25 | Marlins | 4.21 |
| 11 | Mets | 4.55 | _ | 26 | Pirates | 4.18 |
| 12 | Twins | 4.53 | _ | 27 | Angels | 4.17 |
| 13 | Padres | 4.53 | _ | 28 | Guardians | 4.16 |
| 14 | Rangers | 4.51 | _ | 29 | Athletics | 4.10 |
| 15 | Rays | 4.50 | _ | 30 | White Sox | 3.97 |
One standout fact is that the Cleveland Guardians have the 11th-most wins over the last four seasons (341; 85.25 per season) despite scoring the 28th most runs. Other than perennial first-rounder José Ramírez, this hasn’t been an offense that’s been typically loaded with mid- to late-round fantasy goodness. Josh Naylor and Steven Kwan were solid bargains in 2024 and Chase DeLauter was a solid end-gamer this past season.
Now, let’s review the total runs scored by team over the last four seasons and see the year-to-year consistency, or lack thereof. The table below is sorted by team runs leaders in 2026. The highlighted cells separate runs per game by great, good and bad.
| # | Team | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cubs | 819 | 736 | 793 | 850 |
| 2 | Brewers | 728 | 777 | 806 | 832 |
| 3 | Nationals | 700 | 660 | 687 | 821 |
| 4 | Dodgers | 906 | 842 | 825 | 801 |
| 5 | White Sox | 641 | 507 | 647 | 776 |
| 6 | Pirates | 692 | 665 | 583 | 767 |
| 7 | Rockies | 721 | 682 | 597 | 752 |
| 8 | Braves | 947 | 704 | 724 | 742 |
| 9 | Diamondbacks | 746 | 886 | 791 | 739 |
| 10 | Twins | 778 | 742 | 678 | 739 |
| 11 | Yankees | 673 | 815 | 849 | 739 |
| 12 | Rays | 860 | 604 | 714 | 736 |
| 13 | Astros | 827 | 740 | 686 | 734 |
| 14 | Tigers | 661 | 682 | 758 | 723 |
| 15 | Padres | 752 | 760 | 702 | 722 |
| 16 | Cardinals | 719 | 672 | 689 | 720 |
| 17 | Orioles | 807 | 786 | 677 | 718 |
| 18 | Marlins | 666 | 637 | 709 | 715 |
| 19 | Phillies | 796 | 784 | 778 | 713 |
| 20 | Athletics | 585 | 643 | 733 | 699 |
| 21 | Mets | 717 | 768 | 766 | 699 |
| 22 | Royals | 676 | 735 | 651 | 690 |
| 23 | Red Sox | 772 | 751 | 786 | 689 |
| 24 | Guardians | 662 | 708 | 643 | 678 |
| 25 | Rangers | 881 | 683 | 684 | 673 |
| 26 | Giants | 674 | 693 | 705 | 669 |
| 27 | Reds | 783 | 699 | 716 | 666 |
| 28 | Mariners | 758 | 676 | 766 | 664 |
| 29 | Angels | 739 | 635 | 673 | 655 |
| 30 | Blue Jays | 746 | 671 | 798 | 648 |
Green: 4.5 – 5.0 Runs per game
Red: < 4.0 Runs per game
The Los Angeles Dodgers have scored at least 800 runs in every season since 2018, excluding 2020. Last season’s 801 runs still ranked among the best teams, but their runs per game average was under 5.00 for the first time since 2018.
The Chicago Cubs led the Majors in runs last season, but there wasn’t much fantasy profit on that offense outside of the highest-earning player in roto, Pete Crow-Armstrong. Seiya Suzuki and Alex Bregman performed well, earning $19-$20 each, ranking among the top 40 hitters last season. Dansby Swanson had that ridiculous two-week tear (Weeks 14, 15) where he hit eight homers with 26 RBI.
The World Champion Milwaukee Brewers were the only other team besides the Dodgers to produce 800 runs in each of the last two seasons. Three of the top 20 who earned $25 or more in 12-team roto were Brewers — Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio, and William Contreras — though all five had ADPs in the top 60 overall. In-season FAAB snag Jake Bauers was arguably the biggest surprise of the season.
That 2023 Atlanta Braves offense was special in the season where Ronald Acuña Jr. produced the best roto season of all time. The 947 runs they scored is tied for seventh-most with the 2000 A’s for the seventh-most in the modern era. The only modern-era offenses to average more than six runs per game over a season where the 1999 Cleveland Indians and the 2000 Chicago White Sox.
We saw the New York Yankees drop off offensively last season without Aaron Judge for 60% of it. Ten Yankees hit 10 or more homers, but only one over 20 — Ben Rice (41). Rice provided first-round roto value (hitter no. 2) and was the only Yankees bat among the top 50 on our 12-team Player Rater. The Yankees were the only team to not earn at least 6,000 plate appearances (5,997), though they may have surpassed the threshold if they had the chance to play Game 162.
- 2026: Gabriel Moreno (187 ADP, Hitter Rank: 15th)
- 2025: Geraldo Perdomo (407, 11th)
- 2024: Ketel Marte (110, 15th)
- 2023: Christian Walker (130, 25th)
Below are the four teams that scored at least 20% more runs than in the previous season:
| Team | 2025 | 2026 | Delta (total) | Delta (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | 583 | 767 | 184 | 32% |
| Rockies | 597 | 752 | 155 | 26% |
| Nationals | 687 | 821 | 134 | 20% |
| White Sox | 647 | 776 | 129 | 20% |
The team in this group not yet mentioned are the Colorado Rockies. We all know how their home park plays, but that substantial fantasy production on individual levels have been lacking in recent seasons. The story of the 2026 Rockies is about the abundance of production that came from hitters who weren’t drafted in most formats: Jake McCarthy (second-round return), TJ Rumfield, Cole Carrigg, and Kyle Karros. Mickey Moniak (23 HR) and Willi Castro were had ADPs in the top 300 and chipped in as well. Hunter Goodman (41 HR) was the offensive MVP. McCarthy finds himself in the top 100 ADP in early 2027 drafts. The main issue with drafting mid- and late-round Rockies persists: many of them can’t be started on a weekly basis, particularly on the road. Moreover, PBO Paul DePodesta and manager Warren Schaeffer were very platoon-friendly last season.
On the other end are the four teams with a double-digit percentage reduction in runs scored from 2025 to 2026:
| Team | 2025 | 2026 | Delta (total) | Delta (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays | 798 | 648 | -150 | -19% |
| Mariners | 766 | 664 | -102 | -13% |
| Yankees | 849 | 739 | -110 | -13% |
| Red Sox | 786 | 689 | -97 | -12% |
The Blue Jays went from being a few inches away from a World Series title to the biggest offensive drop-off, scoring the fewest runs in the Majors last season. Bo Bichette moved on, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had his worst season as a pro, Alejandro Kirk missed almost half the season, Addison Barger missed most of the season, Anthony Santander missed the entire season, and George Springer massively regressed. Newcomer Kazuma Okamoto was the team MVP and the only Jays hitter with more than 15 dingers. Current Jays appear to be heavily discounted in early drafts, including Guerrero, a perennial top-20 ADP guy who is currently being drafted outside of the top 60. This will interesting to dig back into in February and March and assess potential buying opportunities created by extreme negative market sentiment.
The Mariners scored 102 fewer runs last season, third-worst in the Majors. Ironically, Randy Arozarena scored the second-most runs (first in the American League), responsible for 17.5% of their runs scored. It was a strange season for them all-around with Cal Raleigh’s somewhat-baffling production drop-off, Brendan Donovan missing most of the season, and the subpar seasons from Julio Rodríguez (69 R, 22 HR, 71 RBI in 654 PA) and Josh Naylor (58 R, 10 HR, 57 RBI in 650 PA). Though, Naylor punked all our models by swiping at least 30 bags in a second straight season. Raleigh may end up as a rebound bargain in 2027 drafts, possibly flying under the radar with so many high-performing backstops from 2026 moving up draft boards.
There is value in reviewing and noting what transpired during a season, not long after the season has ended and our memories are still fresh. March 2027 is eons away and it would serve no purpose to make assumptions or projections so many months in advance. First, this dreaded CBA negotiation and a potential lockout are looming. To enable proper assessments of offenses for any consideration of team breakouts and busts and possible late-round fantasy teammate correlation targeting, we must first learn where players land via free agency and trades, and the health statuses of key hitters. This is a fun topic to revisit in March, when hopefully the smoke has cleared and we have a firm grasp at what 2027 rosters will look like. I promise a follow-up that will hopefully include a confident recommendation of hitters from an offense that will be 2027 version of last year’s Pirates, Cardinals, White Sox or Nationals.
Ending this one with an aside, I strongly believe that our vibes should not be ignored throughout this process in March (Part Two). Especially for veteran fantasy managers who properly value and utilize analytics, but also draw from their own experiences and aren’t afraid to question majority viewpoints. We saw a domino effect in Baltimore even before spring training was in full swing, losing Jackson Holliday (hamate) and Jordan Westburg (UCL tear) in February, a Gunnar Henderson mild injury scare in March, and losing Ryan Mountcastle, Adley Rutschman, and Tyler O’Neill (though he’s always there anyway) t0 the IL in April. Of course Pete Alonso wasn’t negatively impacted, but the rest of the offense was. The Jays starting their first season without Bichette, losing Santander and Barger and pitchers Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage and Cody Ponce 폰세 with an already thin roster was a correlated roto death blow to any positivity headed into the regular season. Preseason vibes couldn’t have predicted Guerrero’s fall from roto grace, but in noticing the pendulum swinging towards potential disaster in the spring may have kept us from targeting Guerrero and some of the other Jays during draft season. On the good vibes train, we could have easily noticed the young, burgeoning talent on the White Sox or a Pirates offense that added two boring but effective veterans (Lowe, O’Hearn) and called up the top prospect in baseball (Konnor Griffin) early. During spring training, part two of this column will lock into some of the positive and negative trending offenses based on roster make-up, injuries, prospects, new management (if applicable), analytics, and vibes.