Team Hitting Trends in 2026

Tracking the 2027 implications of a team’s hitting identity in 2026 is not as clear as on the pitching side, but it is still a good exercise to see what kind of profiles teams had and where they landed upon completion of this season.

To get these trends, I went through every team’s hitting metrics to see where each team landed in the top-3 or bottom-3 extreme of a certain metric. Naturally, there were teams that sat in the top or bottom three of multiple metrics, as many as five, and some were around average in everything.

For a visualization, I charted PullAir%, HardHit%, Chase%, and SwStr% in the two tabs below as a point of reference to see where each team fell; although it does not capture the full picture, it gives a good idea of the categories. Through various thresholds, I developed eight distinct archetypes, which I go through in this piece. This does not include all teams, and those that sat around average in most categories were left unclassified.

Through a fantasy lens, where scoring relies obviously on individual performances, tracking a team’s profile might not seem like a useful exercise. But when conducting my post-season reviews on the season, I find it useful to see through what lens I can view offenses as we move into next season, as they usually hold up pretty well year-to-year and also provide value in how certain offenses can improve if they struggled and what proved successful for a productive offense.

Pull Power

These were teams I defined as above league average in PullAir% and above average in HardHit%. New York and the White Sox fit a similar profile. Lots of strikeouts, lots of home runs, low zone and contact rates. Admittedly, the Yankees did this much better than the White Sox with elite EV and pull-side launch numbers, even without Judge for most of the season. Not only did these two sides pull the ball, but they were also able to convert fly balls into home runs, with the Yankees and White Sox finishing first and third, respectively, in HR/FB ratio.

I would still be pretty bullish on Yankee bats going into 2027 for fantasy; I was very high on Ben Rice going into the year, and his stock will rise considerably. Chicago is a much murkier one to predict. We will have a much better idea about Murakami, who came into the year as a relative unknown, and Vargas had a nice breakout, but as someone who was in the unfortunate position to have to play Colson Montgomery this season, that is not an experience I want to go through again. Whether this approach is sustainable for the Southside Chicago team is difficult to predict, as we have seen with the volatility of a similar power profile with Seattle’s regression in 2026 from 2025.

The Royals are an interesting one where they hit both the PullAir and HardHit qualifiers, but they also led the league in Z-Contact%, meaning they were able to protect the zone and do damage in terms of pulling the ball hard. Yet they still finished the season as a league-average offense. While their SLG was in the top half, they were not able to get on base consistently enough. Looking a little deeper, the hard-hit numbers are carried by Jac Caglianone and Bobby Witt Jr., but a lot of their bats were average to slightly above league average.

Launch

During the regular season, the Chicago Cubs had the best offense in baseball, leading the majors in OPS, wRC+, SLG, walks, and wOBA. This was driven by the likely NL MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong, but as a unit, they’ve built a profile that maximizes talent up and down the lineup, with eight bats finishing the season with a wRC+ above 110. They paired being the PullAir% and Air% leaders with also being tied for fifth in Contact%, as well as a patient plate approach with the third-lowest Z-Swing% and tied for the highest walk rate. The hard-hit rate was right around league average, but this would not give me much concern given how well this lineup produced in 2026. This is a great fantasy profile across all categories, but some underperforming bats like Ian Happ and Michael Busch will have depreciated their value.

The rest of this group is a little flimsier. The qualifiers for this category were in the top 12 for PullAir%, with HardHit% at or below league average. They all pull the ball, but without the contact quality to make an impact. While the Cubs qualified by sneaking in at 18th in HardHit, the rest of the group is much further down the list and does not have the other elements that the Cubs did. Houston and Minnesota both came in at second and fourth in PullAir%, respectively, but 23rd and 22nd in HardHit. Seattle and Cleveland were much closer to average in PullAir%, while Seattle maintained a similar position in HardHit, close to average; Cleveland had the third-lowest number in the league.

Detroit stands out from the rest of this group. They came in with the second-highest Air% at 37.93 and the lowest GB% in the league at 39.89, with PullAir% 12th at 9.22. But they were a very well-disciplined team with a Chase% third-lowest in the league at 30.04.

Thumpers

This is part of a very interesting group of five teams that I ended up splitting into ‘Thumpers’ and ‘Worm-burners’. Given the discrepancy in the ability of these teams to get the ball in the air, it felt right to split them, particularly as we think about these teams’ potential for next year. While offensive results might not have come their way, I think this provides metrics that might indicate an offensive bounceback for the Orioles and the Mets. The qualifiers here were high HardHit rates and high exit velocities, but paired with below-average pull numbers.

These are raw contact-quality leaders, teams that hit the ball hard. They just don’t convert that into the HRs at a team level. Baltimore and the Mets seem to lead this group, hence the split. Lots of high EVs, lots of loud contact. HardHit% 1st and 2nd, EV 2nd and 1st, but PullAir% around average. There are a lot of intriguing options looking ahead to next season, and I think an offensive bounceback can be expected given the foundations. I’m very curious to see where the star names from both of these lineups land in terms of ADP, and there will be lots of value given the breakout of their prospects in 2026.

Worm-burners

In the trio within the same category, we have San Diego, St. Louis, and Texas. All were top 10 in HardHit%, but they were not able to get the ball in the air. Numbers for pull-side and in-the-air are all bottom half. In the second half, San Diego moved closer to the league average, which I think gives a good indicator of how reliant they are on their stars. The other two will have bigger question marks and will be difficult to trust in 2027, although I think I might trust the Cardinals more given their profiles.

Milwaukee

The Brewers are such a unicorn that they have a whole category to themselves. The original name was related to oppo groundballs, but the Brewers deserve the self-titled category. They sit at the end of a spectrum in a whopping nine categories: PullAir% 5.36 (lowest), Pull% 39.68 (lowest), Oppo% 29.78 (leader), GB% 51.27 (leader), Air% 28.19 (lowest), Chase% 29.11 (lowest), Swing% 43.89 (lowest), SwStr% 9.59 (3rd–lowest), Z-Swing% 63.46 (2nd-lowest).

They hit the ball hard top 10 in HardHit%, they hit the ball to the opposite field, and they hit the ball on the ground. Despite the lowest home run total, they were a top-3 offense in baseball, depending on what metric you’re looking at. For fantasy, I think we can expect similar outcomes to 2026. There is not much of a ceiling, but value in AVG, RBIs, runs, and low strikeout numbers. Perhaps we can hope for more consistent power numbers from the likes of Jackson Chourio and William Contreras.

Contact

Perhaps no coincidence that the two AL East teams that convincingly dispatched the Yankees in the ALDS in back-to-back seasons are in the same category, giving a good indication of the floor and ceiling of this profile.

The Blue Jays had success in 2025 and the Rays in 2026, where they were able to match both the contact-oriented approach and star power. When Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, and co. were at the peak of their powers, they were very capable of winning a World Series; this year, Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, and Yandy Diaz have done the same for Tampa Bay. But the profile underneath the stars seems very similar.

Tampa Bay led the league in Contact% at 81.72 and O-Contact% at 70.76, with Toronto second in both at 79.99 and 67.74. Toronto’s HardHit% was last at 34.11, with the Rays second-lowest at 34.64, and the Rays’ EV was last at 86.44, with Barrel% second-lowest. Both teams tied for the lowest xwOBAcon at .330.

I was bullish on a Vladdy bounceback midseason that never materialized, and they need him to be firing to be successful. But I would be bullish again on Tampa’s power bats for 2027 fantasy; and Kazuma Okamoto proved to have fantasy value with a top-10 season at third base, but the Blue Jays will not want Okamoto to be their best bat again in 2027.

But given the seasons of Tampa in 2025 and Toronto in 2026, it’s fair to question how likely that team philosophy can translate into year-to-year success, even extending to top-end fantasy names like Guerrero. Given Caminero’s age, bat speed, and overall production, I would be shocked if he suffered a similar fate in 2027. But for the rest of both teams I think its fair to raise questions.

Discipline

This is another fascinating grouping of NL West rivals, and the D-backs’ warranted inclusion might surprise people given the presence of the Dodgers. The Dodgers, of course, are the standout. Their Chase% was second-lowest in the league at 29.92, HardHit% above league avg at 39.74 (11th), and xwOBAcon at .380. Pair that with GB% second-lowest at 41.93, and the Dodgers look like a ‘Pullside Power’ team that just misses the threshold. But they have the power numbers paired with the ability to control the zone at an elite level.

Arizona is the clearest discipline-only play. Lowest Z-Swing% in the league at 63.39, second-lowest SwStr% at 9.26, and third in Contact% at 79.72. The approach is built around holding the zone and making contact. They will have a good offensive floor for 2027. I will be excited to draft Corbin Carroll, having not owned him in any leagues this year.

For 2027, discipline-driven offenses tend to carry year-over-year because the approach signatures are stable. The Dodgers are the one with HR ceiling and upside provided by superstars; Arizona is more of a batting-average and on-base play, but with some great value throughout. But I think it’s fair to predict a reasonably high floor for fantasy names next year.

Hackers

This is a group of aggression at the plate. Swing early, and swing often. As you can see, this is quite an eclectic group, proving the successes and downfalls it can bring.

Colorado is the aggression leader on three separate metrics: Chase, Z-Swing, and Swing. This is no doubt a tactic to maximize their home ballpark and makes their hitters fantasy relevant despite the lack of wins. Atlanta is the exception that pairs chase with real contact quality (HardHit% 10th). They trail only the Rockies in Chase% and Swing% and are third in Z-Swing%. But the quality of their bats means it can pay off. But given the collapse in offensive production over the course of the season, they may look to rein it in next year.

The Angels and Pirates both chase and miss. The Angels led the league in SwStr% at 12.76 with the lowest Contact% at 74.14 and the lowest O-Contact% at 56.43, while the Pirates came in third in SwStr% at 12.01 with Contact% third-lowest at 75.10 and O-Contact% third-lowest at 58.37. The Phillies ran the fourth-highest Chase% at 34.85, but HardHit% was 12th at 39.53, and their one real extreme was the third-lowest PullAir% at 7.93.

Final Takeaways

These buckets can give us an idea of the type of offenses these teams are trying to build, and how successful they have been. This kind of team analysis is useful for fantasy as we begin preparing for 2027, to gauge what teams might repeat or change, and how sticky these profiles are. Roster turnover this winter will decide which of these identities carry over.