Archive for Zack Wheeler

A little more than a year ago, Alex Chamberlain and I looked into what type of impact a slew of Statcast measures had on a pitcher’s overall BABIP rate. Hard-hit rate and exit velocity on ground balls (EV GB) had the strongest correlations, but it seemed unlikely that the latter would have much to say about which pitchers would be best at limiting hits on flyballs in play. In general, it seems that BABIP could be influenced by different factors depending on the type of batted ball.

So let’s test that out. This column is the first in a series of four where I will be looking at the impact of various measures on flyball BABIP and ground ball Avg, both for pitchers and hitters. I’m kicking this off with an analysis of flyball BABIP for pitchers.
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We all have our guys. Those players where you circle a round in your notes and make sure you’re adding them to your squad. You chuckle, smile, and type your love for them into the league chat.

Today, I’m going to highlight three pitchers that I’ve found myself owning in the heavy majority of my leagues.

Zack Wheeler (New York Mets, FP ADP #94)

I’ve written a fair amount about my love of Wheeler and I’m going to add on a bit here. Wheeler sports a hard fastball that he favors not only on both sides of the plate within the same at-bat, but also elevated for strikeouts often. It’s an elite pitch, returning a 20+ pVal last season, including a rugged opening 14 starts to the year.

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As we anticipate Dallas Keuchel finding a new home this offseason, we should probably be wondering more about where he will be locating his sinker in 2019 than where his moving van is headed.

Sinker location has been key to Keuchel’s success, and his mostly-consistent five-year run has been nearly unique this decade. When he shaved more than two runs off his ERA from 2013 to 2014, Keuchel had a dramatic breakout that may have been most notable for what didn’t change. He didn’t throw substantially harder. He wasn’t notably better at throwing strikes or getting whiffs, chases or freezes. Keuchel did induce more grounders, but his biggest improvement came in his avoidance of hard contact. His rate dropped from 29.3 percent to 19.7 percent, and in the four seasons that followed, Keuchel continued to demonstrate that skill — as long as his sinker was down and away from righties.
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Each week I look at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 30% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) with a few extra sub 10% discount options at the end, pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Let’s highlight my ten favorite starting pitcher options that may be available on your waiver wires, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Under 30% Owned

Nathan Eovaldi (Boston Red Sox) – Eovaldi’s 8 ER outing against the Twins is sure to explain his lowered usage rate, though if you look past it, you’ll see his other four starts in his last five games returning just 3 ER while collecting 31 strikeouts. A move to Boston will boost the win total while preventing Eovaldi from regularly facing one of the best offenses around. This is an add that you can roll with through the rest of the season.

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Each week I look at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 30% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) with a few extra sub 10% discount options at the end, pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Let’s highlight my ten favorite starting pitcher options that may be available on your waiver wires, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Under 30% Owned

Jeff Samardzija (San Francisco Giants) –  His 6.42 ERA will not last. His 1.67 WHIP will not last. He will have a strikeout rate above 16%. I think it’s best for us to forget about what has happened to Samardzija so far this year, throw it out, and ask what t expect moving forward. Is a sub 4.00 ERA so hard to buy into? A 1.30 WHIP or lower? How about a 20%+ K rate? It all seems very plausible to me, making him playable in 12-teamers, especially those in QS leagues as he will be given a longer leash than most.

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Each week I look at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 30% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) with a few extra sub 10% discount options at the end, pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Let’s highlight my ten favorite starting pitcher options that may be available on your waiver wires, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Under 30% Owned

Zack Wheeler (New York Mets) – Wheeler is finally getting proper time in the Mets rotation and he’s developing into a dependable arm, featuring a 2.73 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate across his last four starts. A 13.2% over whiff rate and a double-digit mark in each of these starts is a product of both increased velocity (97.1mph average four-seamer!) and an increased reliance on his slider. Get on board before your entire league catches on.

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Each week through the season, I’ll be looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

It’s been another week of Fantasy Baseball, and the waiver wire has shifted. Let’s highlight my ten favorites, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Shane Bieber (Cleveland Indians) – The only reason Bieber qualifies is his lack of security inside the Indians rotation. It’s possible he only sticks for one more start – Thursday against the Tigers – as Carlos Carrasco returns from his short DL stint, but the possibility that he gets more starts alone should be enough to grab in most leagues now. And even if it’s just for one start, his control-heavy approach with a good fastball and solid secondary offerings make him a good play for Thursday’s matchup.

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Each week through the season, I’ll be looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

It’s been another week of Fantasy Baseball, and the waiver wire has shifted. Let’s highlight my ten favorites, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Marco Estrada (Toronto Blue Jays) – This could be nothing, but it could be something as Marco Estrada has dominated in his last two starts, allowing 3 ER in 12 frames against the Yankees and Orioles, posting a wonderful 15/1 strikeout per walk ratio. His fastball has been toxic through the season, but has performed wildly better in these starts, suggesting that maybe, just maybe, a corner has been turned that could spell better days. One more great start will exile him from this weekly article, and this might be your only chance to act.

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Each week through the season, I’ll be looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

It’s been another week of Fantasy Baseball, and the waiver wire has shifted. Let’s highlight my ten favorites, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Jaime Barria (Los Angeles Angels) – Barria is owned right at the 15% threshold and I’m making an exception this week as I need to push the idea of owning Barria to those even in twelve teamers. Across his last four starts, Barria has returned a 1.93 ERA with a 26.4% K rate, 3.3% BB rate, and 0.94 WHIP, all while facing the Astros, Yankees, Rangers, and Rockies in Coors. His impetus for success is a slider that has seen its usage grow from 26% to 36% in those four outings while returning a 20% whiff rate and 45% marks in both zone and O-swing. That’s the makings of a money pitch and with an elite tool in his arsenal that he’s throwing over 35% of the time, Barria should able to provide value in plenty of leagues.

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Each week through the season, I’ll be looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

It’s been another week of Fantasy Baseball, and the waiver wire has shifted. Let’s highlight my ten favorites, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Anthony DeSclafani (Cincinnati Reds) – Tony Disco threw his final rehab start today and he may be worth the add if you’re looking for some stability at the backend of your staff. His 2016 season returned a 3.28 ERA across 20 starts with a 1.22 WHIP that works incredibly well in the current SP landscape. It doesn’t come with the largest ceiling, but those in deep leagues should be all over Desclafani.

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