Three Starters I’m Targeting Everywhere

We all have our guys. Those players where you circle a round in your notes and make sure you’re adding them to your squad. You chuckle, smile, and type your love for them into the league chat.

Today, I’m going to highlight three pitchers that I’ve found myself owning in the heavy majority of my leagues.

Zack Wheeler (New York Mets, FP ADP #94)

I’ve written a fair amount about my love of Wheeler and I’m going to add on a bit here. Wheeler sports a hard fastball that he favors not only on both sides of the plate within the same at-bat, but also elevated for strikeouts often. It’s an elite pitch, returning a 20+ pVal last season, including a rugged opening 14 starts to the year.

Meanwhile, his array of secondary pitches – slider, curveball, and split-changeup – each induce over a 10% swinging-strike rate, with room for each to grow as a formidable second option on its own. Wheeler’s variety of options helped him return at least seven frames in nine of his final eleven starts of 2018 and a minuscule 2.49 ERA from June 6th through the end of the year, putting him in a position to earn 200 frames for the Mets in an era where workhorse pitchers are seemingly on their deathbed.

I can see a strikeout per inning with 180-200 innings, a 3.50 ERA (or better!) and 1.15 WHIP from Wheeler, a pitcher going comfortably past the first twenty starters off the board. Sign me up.

Yu Darvish (Chicago Cubs, FP ADP #129)

I understand the hesitation with Darvish. The oft headache-inducing starter pitched just eight games and 40 frames in 2018 and even after elbow surgery, there’s skepticism surrounding his durability. However, I’m willing to buy into 160 frames from Darvish – a feat he’s done three times in his career with Tommy John and last year’s elbow injuries the only obstacles prior – which should make you a buyer.

Darvish has returned a 27% strikeout rate or better in every season, three seasons of a WHIP at 1.16 or lower, and clear upside for an ERA hinting 3.00. Don’t forget, he’s moving from HR haven Arlington to league-average Wrigley, and his recent horrid HR/FB rates should come down pitching in better parks and with health on his side.

I’m not going to put extra stock in spring performances or Best Shape of his Life (or as I call it “Shape of his Life”) and I even hesitated to mention this here, but I think there is at least some benefit to knowing Darvish is currently throwing 97mph and has no inhibitions in his throwing program.

As the current #35th starter off the board, there are warts with each starter available. Pick the one with the cleanest path to his ceiling and grab Darvish.

Tyler Skaggs (Los Angeles Angels, FP ADP #190)

Those that followed my articles last year may be a bit surprised to see an endorsement for Skaggs after I heavily questioned his early 2018 success, but there is good reason why I’m targeting the #51st starter off the board.

At the time of that article, Skaggs’ four-seamer was missing bats at an 8.6% clip, granting no reason to believe it was a major catalyst to his success. However, by season’s end, the mark climbed to an excellent 10.7% rate. That’s across nearly 1,000 heaters thrown, a very large sample to suggest we can trust Skaggs’ ability to earn strikeouts with the pitch.

I believe his draft stock has fallen due to the poor end of season numbers – 4.02 ERA and 1.33 WHIP across just 24 starts – and it’s something to take advantage of. Skaggs suffered a groin injury on July 31st, a game where he allowed 10 ER. A brief return on Augst 11th added another 7 ER, and his final three starts of the year were small starts as he slowly returned from injury. Prior to this groin strain, Skaggs held a sparkling 2.62 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 25.5% K rate, and 7% BB rate. You don’t need me to tell you that those numbers are incredibly tantalizing.

Skaggs has yet to throw 140 frames in the bigs, and with his improved approach and a clean bill of health, he looks primed for a true breakout season in 2019. At such a cheap price, Skaggs becomes an easy pick in the later rounds.