Archive for Yunel Escobar

I’ve written about Luis Valbuena a couple of different times this winter: once in regard to the third basemen available on the free agent market and then again as a comparison against Chase Headley, as it looked like the New York Yankees were in pursuit of the veteran third baseman. With Valbuena now suiting up for the Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim) thanks to a recent two-year deal, now comes the time that we evaluate whether or not he’ll be a fantasy asset in the coming year.

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My goal over the next few weeks will be to reexamine some of the seasons of third basemen throughout Major League Baseball. We’ll start with the bottom tiers, in the form of a couple of groups, working our way up to individual performances that are actually worth discussing.

Since WAR isn’t necessarily a fantasy element, we’ll use something at least a little bit more relevant to our purpose here and organize our 3Bs by their Off rating. And since the objective is to observe the results and performances of the position overall, we have to start somewhere. That ‘somewhere’ just happens to be at the bottom of our 24 qualifying third sackers.

The good news is that no third baseman finished on the negative side of the WAR game. However, there were some that provided negative offensive value to their club, based off of that Off rating alone. The following represent that group, with the exception of Yunel Escobar, who represents the only “league average” player among these seven, if we’re using Off to determine that.

There certainly isn’t a whole lot within this group that will surprise anyone. The strikeout and walk rates fluctuate a bit, depending on the hitter, but the on-base and power numbers are relatively consistent across the board. The wRC+ column gives you a pretty good idea of where this hitters stand, in terms of being considered “league average”, if Off didn’t already do that for you.

With numbers like this, most of this group isn’t terribly interesting to delve deep into, especially because this was largely expected from the majority of the names on this list. But a pair worth exploring just a little bit deeper, and two that we profiled earlier this season, are Maikel Franco and Travis Shaw.

Franco is interesting because he wasn’t supposed to be here. He was expected to take the next step forward as an offensive player and a potential building block for the Philadelphia Phillies. Instead, he ended up providing negative offensive value overall. There’s some power there, to be sure, as he hit 25 homers and notched the second highest ISO among this group of 3B. In that column earlier in the year, I noted Franco’s increase in swing percentage from his tendencies in 2015, particularly against offspeed and breaking pitches. Turns out, that was a trend that continued throughout the year, as he experienced a near 10 percent increase against offspeed and one of about eight percent against breaking.

This is where things get interesting. Turns out, those trends aren’t necessarily indicative of his overall struggles. Even with that in mind, he still only swung at less than two percent more pitches outside of the strike zone, and experienced a swinging strike rate of 11.8%, only a 0.7% increase. His contact rate was also up about a percentage point. And even those figures can be somewhat deceiving, as his 52.0% overall swing rate was a five percent increase (and the 21st highest rate among all qualifying Major League position players). His penchant for swinging at the first pitch crept up near 40%. That’s absurd. And while he was still able to make decent contact (30.7% Hard%) at a reasonable rate (77.1%), he’s going to have to find an appropriate balance between a legitimate approach and the aggressiveness that he’s become known for. That’ll be the challenge with the new hitting coach in Philly.

Shaw is disappointing just because of the start off to which he got in 2016. He hit .314 in April and a still quality .275 in May. Unfortunately, the writing was on the wall that a slump was on the way and, boy, did it come. His next four months saw averages of .214, .246, .167, and .203, respectively. His OBP over those final four months was just .270, while the power dipped from a solid .213 ISO in the first two months (including a .239 mark in May), to just .160 for the rest of the year. In three of those months, he posted a wRC+ at 50 or below.

Given that his BABIP in April came in at .410, followed by a .347 mark in May, there wasn’t any doubt that a slump was coming. Especially since his hard hit rate dipped in the second half by about seven percent, following from about 35 percent to a mark more around 28, finishing just into the bottom half of the third base group in that regard. While luck certainly played into it in both regards (within the hot start and the frigid finish), there’s reason to believe that Shaw can be a serviceable player in Boston. He’s a versatile player with some pop. If he can solidify the approach, as his strikeout rate did rise above 25% in 2016, there will be a place for him.

The place for the remainder of this group, however, remains to be seen. Escobar, Suarez, and Garcia all maintain relative insignificance because they’re merely stopgaps on bad teams. Headley is past his prime and showed some pop towards in July, but was decidedly average for the remainder of the year. Cuthbert was merely a fill-in for Mike Moustakas and will attempt to become more versatile this winter in order to maintain some semblance of value. In any case, Franco and Shaw remain the only intriguing options for this group moving forward.

Next week, we’ll take a look at the middle-of-the-road types before subsequently moving onto those third basemen worthy of individual attention. And visuals.

If there’s one thing that we can take away from reviewing Zach Sanders’ Shortstop End of Season Rankings, it’s that the position, on the whole, is not very strong. The overall drop-off going from Jimmy Rollins at number one with a $22 value to say, J.J. Hardy at number 17 ($8) or even Zack Cozart at number 22 ($1) isn’t that dramatic and Rollins’ numbers really weren’t anything to freak out about. So if you choose to wait on the position in 2013 and not invest big money in one of the top five, you’re not exactly slitting your fantasy throat. In fact, when you start scraping the bottom of the barrel and end up with Jhonny Peralta or Yunel Escobar, you’re not really doing damage to your team, but you’re also not doing much to help it either. Read the rest of this entry »

With a full month of baseball in the books, you’d have to think that your league’s waiver wire has been picked clean.  However, between the recent rash of injuries and rookie call-ups, there are certainly a few names that have slipped through the cracks.  Here are two guys you might want to consider depending on the holes in your roster. Read the rest of this entry »

We did the shortstop keeper rankings last week, and one of the questions was succinct: “Yunel Escobar?”

If only the answer could be as short as the question in this case. Of course, if you are in a shallow league or contemplating even ten keepers in a mixed league, the answer probably is: No. Even if he has the upside to become a top-ten option at his position, after the season he just put together, he could easily be drafted cheaply in the re-stocking proceedings next year.

But let’s talk more fringe-y. Maybe you are in an AL-only league and spent your FAAB budget on your new shortstop and you’d like to know if he’ll return to grace and is worth keeping. Once again, we’ll have to assume you are not in an OBP league because then the answer is again probably easy: Yes. Before last year, his OBP was over .366 every year and his walk rate survived even his bad 2010 to hover near 10%. He’s an asset there.

The “problem” with Escobar has always been discerning a skill beyond the ability to get on base. He isn’t really speedy – his speed scores have always been below average despite his 18 career stolen bases. His batting averages have been good, but last year it was bad (.256) despite only a mediocre BABIP (.282). Even then, a one-category guy isn’t one to keep.

So it comes down to if his power will grow – an interesting thing for a man with a career seasonal high of 14 home runs. The answer to this question is not as easily parsed as the last two questions, however: Maybe. Because as bad as last year looked, there was a progression in his numbers that might give his owners some hope.

Here are his isolated slugging percentages, starting with his rookie year, and not including last year: .125, .113, .136. And his flyball percentages: 22.9%, 24.7%, 30.0%. And his groundball percentages: 56%, 58.2%, 50%. And his HR/FB: 7.9%, 9.1%, 10.1%. If only last year’s .062 ISO, 28.4% flyballs, 53.6% groundballs and 3.3% HR/FB didn’t spoil the fun, you could say that his batted ball profile was trending towards more power. More flyballs mean more power on a basic level, and that slowly increasing HR/FB was a great sign that more of those flyballs could turn into the home runs that we fantasy managers covet.

The good news is that he’s only 28 and that trends like this can regain traction even after a poor year. It’s possible that he’s older than his birth certificate says – and that would change the diagnosis slightly and make it possible that we’ve seen his best – but he’s been here a while and there’s been little speculation about his age so far. If he’s on the right side of thirty, he’s in the right place for a power resurgence and a career year. Perhaps the “Grip it and rip it” hitting philosophy in Toronto will make for a career year in 2011. Right place, right time?

There’s a chance that in the right league of the right depth, Yunel Escobar a keeper. Not quite the one-word answer for the two-word question, but it’s honest.

This was going to be a rankings update, because it’s been six weeks since we last looked at the shortstops, but amazingly little has changed. There’s still Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins at the top, some okay guys four-through-eight, and then a whole bunch of leftovers.

Instead let’s look at some guys near the bottom, just in case you are looking for an injury replacement, or your current shortstop is just killing you. They might be on your mixed- or deep-league waiver wire, and can provide some short-term help.

Stephen Drew, Arizona (60% owned)
The younger Drew has not had a great month, going .224 with three home runs and no stolen bases, but he was just part of a four-home-run-in-a-row onslaught that could awaken the bat. His current .146 ISO is well below his career number (.170) and since ISO takes the longest to become predictable (550 plate appearances, and Drew has 435 PAs), there’s still some hope left that the power returns. The speed scores have stayed steady around 5.8, so he looks like he’s got above-average speed (5.0 is average) and will sprinkle some steals in. With his batting average currently batted-ball luck neutral (.301 BABIP), we can’t expect a lot in that category. With a little power boost, though, he could best his ZiPs RoS without too much effort.

Yunel Escobar, Toronto (49% owned)
It seems that the change of venue has treated Escobar well. He’s gone .306/.344/.447 since the trade, and those are entirely repeatable numbers based on his .292/.367/.405 career numbers and the power drought he was mired in earlier in the season. Since joining the Jays, Escobar has eschewed the walk (4.3%, 9.5% career) in favor of some pop (.141 ISO, .114 career ISO) – that should sound familiar to anyone watching the “Grip It & Rip It” Jays right now. They have the fourth-worst walk rate in the American League, and the best ISO by far (.210 to the Red Sox’ .189). It remains to be seen how this affects Escobar long term, but more power would make him a fringe mixed-league candidate. He still hits too many balls on the ground to really be a power threat, and his speed scores (3.4 career) make him a poor pickup for steals. But if you need a little batting average and the occasional home run, Escobar is in the right place right now.

Brendan Ryan, St. Louis (3% owned)
Ryan is no great shakes. That much should be obvious from his career wRC+ (85) if not from any of his other underwhelming statistics. He has no power (.090 career ISO) and last year’s 14 steals were a career high. But as fantasy players, you all know that shortstop is a tough position to fill. The average wOBA of qualifying shortstops this year is .311, while the average wOBA across all positions is .324. Suddenly his 85 wRC+ doesn’t look as bad next to the average shortstop’s 96 wRC+. Ryan has also been working on his swing by reducing his movement – a development than anyone who has watched Ryan would welcome. We know all about the horrors of the small sample size, but since the break, Ryan has put up a .299/.333/.338 line that looks sustainable given the fact that his BABIP regression (currently .251) will hopefully help him continue to push his currently horrid line back to his career norms.

Jed Lowrie, Boston (1% owned)
It’s possible that Jed Lowrie is actually Yunel-Escobar-lite. He has poor speed (3.7 career speed score), and the power hasn’t shown itself yet (.137 ISO career). But his career has been so short to date because of his myriad injuries (436 PAs) that his ISO has not stabilized yet. His best season in the minor leagues was his healthiest, when he put up 498 combined ABs between Double- and Triple-A and had a combined .290/.387/.495 park- and luck-adjusted line according to MinorLeagueSplits.com. Of course, the MLE for that (.243/.318/.397) looks a lot like his major league line so far (.244/.327/.381), so maybe this is what we get. He can definitely take a walk, though (11.5% career walk rate), and has value in OBP leagues. So far in August, he has 24 ABs in 12 Red Sox games, which is just barely relevant. If the Sox fall further out of it, they may just want to see what they have in the young dude.

On September 2nd, 2009, Yunel Escobar clubbed a ninth-inning home run against the Florida Marlins. The Atlanta shortstop took a 96 MPH Leo Nunez fastball, thrown on the outside corner, over the right field fence for his 14th jack of the season.

Escobar hasn’t gone deep since. Dating back to last year, Yunel’s homerless streak has reached 377 plate appearances. 2010 has been trying offensively for the 27-year-old — Escobar’s hitting just .242/.346/.286 in 265 PA, with a .301 wOBA and a minuscule .044 ISO.

Because of his slick D (+9.5 UZR/150), he has still been an asset to the Braves with 1.2 WAR on the season. But he’s falling short of the expectations fantasy owners had. Escobar hit a combined .301/.375/.426 over the 2007-2009 seasons, posting a .352 wOBA and a .125 ISO. ZiPS thought he’d bat .294/.365/.416 in 2010, with a .347 wOBA and a .122 ISO, while CHONE projected a .294/.369/.429 triple-slash, a .352 wOBA and a .135 ISO. What’s causing Escobar’s feeble offensive output?

Part of his slump can be explained by a .279 batting average on balls in play, well below his career .319 BABIP. Escobar is hitting infield flies 12.5% this season, compared to a 4.9% career average and the 7-8% MLB average. That doesn’t help matters, but little else has changed in his batted ball profile. Escobar’s BABIP on ground balls is .204 in 2010, compared to a career .235 average. His BABIP on fly balls is .121, while his career clip is .204. His expected BABIP is .321, suggesting he has been more of a .280 hitter than a .240’s type.

That still doesn’t explain the power outage, however. No matter what field he hits to, Escobar is showing precious little pop:

Nothing at all is happening when Escobar puts the ball in the air. He had a .426 ISO on fly balls on 2007, a .339 ISO in 2008 and a .409 ISO in 2009. This season, he’s got a .089 ISO when he lofts one. He has never been much of a power hitter, but the total lack of thump is mystifying. Escobar did have a back problem in spring training and served a DL stint for left groin strain in May, so perhaps he’s still battling injury problems.

Escobar is characteristically controlling the strike zone, with a 21.7 outside swing percentage (28.5% MLB average) and a 13.2% walk rate. And, he’ll almost certainly hit for a higher average during the rest of the season. But fantasy owners would surely appreciate it if he would end that dinger drought.

Today while Andruw Jones is busting out the whoop-stick, we’ll bust out the in-season wOBA (and add ZiPS Ros wOBA) and go back to see what’s going on at shortstop. Enjoy the weekend!

The Big Four:
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida (.349 wOBA, .404 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (.338 wOBA, .362 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
3. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (.526 wOBA, .355 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
4. Derek Jeter, New York AL (.381 wOBA, .361 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

If the season ended today, Jeter would have the best ISO he’s had in eleven years(!), so it’s safe to say that he may even approach his career high in home runs this year (24). A twenty-twenty season would make Jeter a solid top option, and depending on Rollins’ final batting average and steals total, and Tulowitzki’s home run total, he may even be a top-3 shortstop by the end of the year. Not bad for a guy that went at the end of the third round in the spring.

The Next Best Thing:
5. Jose Reyes, New York NL (.285 wOBA, .361 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
6. Stephen Drew, Arizona (.377 wOBA, .341 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
7. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles NL (.369 wOBA, .331 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
8. Elvis Andrus, Texas (.344 wOBA, .342 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
9. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.322 wOBA, .352wOBA)
10. Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay (.306 wOBA, .333 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

Elvis Andrus and Rafael Furcal are the big winners this week. Furcal moves up just by being healthy another two weeks and stealing a few bases, while Andrus is doing some really nice things in this young season. He’s got a great line drive percentage and is walking 17% of the time – there’s a chance he betters his batting average yet. Also, he’s stolen enough bases to say that he could easily best his ZiPS updated projection of 35 steals. If he can nudge that average up just a little higher, he has the upside left to lead this tier, or at least join Drew and Reyes at the top.

Bartlett falls and is honestly in danger of dropping from this tier entirely. His ZiPS updated projection only calls for a .280 average and 19 steals now, and those aren’t scintillating numbers. The worst thing about his season so far is that most of his secondary statistics are more in line with his pre-2009 career. Zobrist enters the list ahead of him because he still has more power upside even if he’s not showing it right now.

The Leftovers:
11. Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland (.324 wOBA, .335 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
12. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore (.364 wOBA, .341 ZiPS wOBA)
13. Marco Scutaro, Boston (.324 wOBA, .355 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
14. Ryan Theriot, Cubs (.339 wOBA, .333 ZIPS RoS wOBA)
15. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago AL (.242 wOBA, .327 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
16. Alcides Escobar, Milwaukee (.300 wOBA, .315 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

Though there is a lot of movement in this tier, the big news here is that Erick Aybar drops off the list. I know he was moving up in the ranking, and I was guilty of the same sort of Aybar love in the pre-season, but a frank look at his statistics doesn’t offer much hope for his traditional roto stats this year. See, the thing is, he obviously has almost no power (.096 ISO career) and even his speed is suspect. He only came up with 14 steals last year, one so far this year, and his speed score is currently below average. If he doesn’t better last year’s steals total, has no power, and is now showing that his batting average is also no given, well, then, he’s not so interesting, is he? I’ll take Escobar’s upside because of his wheels, even if he doesn’t yet have a stolen base.

Theriot’s strong play (though utterly powerless (.050 ISO)) earns him a spot on the list at the cost of the scuffling Yunel Escobar. The other (other) Escobar’s lack of real power or speed, and his steps back in batted ball profile, limit his upside anyway.

Time to take a look at the shortstops and see if anything changed in the first couple of weeks. I’ll be alternating between the middle infield spots every weekend, just as an fyi. We’ll also use projected wOBA one last week.

The Big Four:
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida (.410 wOBA)
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (.393 wOBA)
3. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (.316 wOBA)
4. Derek Jeter, New York AL (.390 wOBA)

Jeter moves into the top group here. This is not because of his batting average – it’s a little BABIP-inflated even for a player with a player with a .360 career BABIP. He moves into the top because he’s showing (so far) that he’s still rejuvenated. The two stolen bases and two home runs in 10 games show that he’s still going to take off on the basepaths and that a 15/20 season looks probable. Add that to all his runs and RBI in that lineup, and his batting average, and you’ve got a top player once again. Rollins could drop out of this group – his injury doesn’t help, and may affect his steals totals this year – but he’s still a top option until he shows that he’s not going to attempt many steals when he returns.

The Next Best Thing:
5. Jose Reyes, New York NL (.342 wOBA)
6. Stephen Drew, Arizona (.321 wOBA)
7. Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay (.389 wOBA)
8. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles NL (.316 wOBA)
9. Elvis Andrus, Texas (.322 wOBA)

There’s a lot of movement in this tier. Reyes moves to the front – and is the best candidate for replacing Rollins in the top tier – because he’s healthy. Two stolen base attempts in the first ten games is not enough to move him higher, but it still counts as a good sign. Once he starts taking off more, and shows a little more life in his bat, Reyes should re-join the top group.

Like most of us predicted, Bartlett is indeed regressing. But if he gets his walk rate back up to historical levels, the hope is still there that he can put a nice batting average and plus steals together at a tough position. Drew moves ahead of him because he looks like he is finally putting together the better parts of his game at one time. Once the line drives re-appear, he could have a career year. Furcal joins the group more because he’s playing every day and has four stolen bases than because of his gaudy batting average. His upside looks a little like Bartlett’s at this point in their respective careers.

Andrus joining the middle group may be premature, but he’s playing so well, and Alexei Ramirez so poorly, that not making this move seems more radical than promoting Andrus. He is hitting .323 and walking 10+% of the time. But on the negative side of the ledger stand his single stolen base and his inflated BABIP (.400), meaning the batting average may come down and he needs to steal more to move up any further. If Bartlett doesn’t pick up his walk rate, and Andrus keeps hitting frozen ropes, we may see a flip-flop there.

The Leftovers:
10. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago AL (.319 wOBA)
11. Marco Scutaro, Boston (.354 wOBA)
12. Yunel Escobar, Atlanta (.357 wOBA)
13. Erick Aybar, Los Angeles AL (.339 wOBA)
14. Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland (.354 wOBA)
15. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore (.344 wOBA)

Cabrera and Escobar are not yet capitalizing on the gains they have made in their early careers, so the surprising repeating veteran Scutaro jumps ahead in the rankings. Scu-Scu-Scutaro is still not swinging at anything outside the zone, which bodes well for his newfound patient approach. Aybar moves up because he’s showing a nice walk rate in the early going (13%), but this part of the rankings has been generally underwhelming. Perhaps Alcides Escobar can begin stealing bases so that he can supplant someone here?

When we checked the position at shortstop, it became clear through the tiers that there were some values to be had. Shortstop can be a tough position in fantasy baseball, because it’s one of the most volatile positions, but it’s also a shallow position. Having a stud there is immensely valuable, and that’s why many a successful manager will pick one in the early rounds. On the other hand, there were plenty of fantasy teams that were sunk by their early shortstop picks last year (thank you, Jose Reyes!).

So what are we to do? The answer, as always, is to focus on the position and yet avoid overpaying. So let’s take a look at the Average Draft Positions (via Mock Draft Central) and see some similar players that will cost disparate draft picks in 2010. That’ll bag us some value picks.

Alexei Ramirez is a fine player. He managed better-than-scratch defense at shortstop this year (+2.4 UZR/150), cut down on his terrible reach rate (from 42.7 to 32.1%), and made more contact in the zone (87.6% to 91%) in 2009. He still doesn’t hit line drives (16.1% career) and his power is suspect (.185 ISO in 2008, .113 ISO in 2009), but he’s a fine player with the upside to hit .280 with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. His ADP (108.2) is not terrible – using an eighth-round pick on that upside is fine.

But what if I told you that you could wait another six rounds and get someone that might better Ramirez’ production this year? That’s right, Elvis Andrus is being drafted, on average, with the 179th pick of drafts this year. Andrus won’t give you the power that his white-socked counterpart will provide, but he will certainly out-steal Sexei. The fans like Andrus for 42 stolen bases next year, and that is a reasonable projection given his 33 successful thefts in only 39 attempts in his rookie year. Their batting averages are projected to be similar (Andrus is projected from .266 to .280, Ramirez .277 to .286), so you’d be paying 70 draft spots for about ten home runs if you draft Ramirez. Andrus is the value here.

Rafael Furcal has already been eviscerated by Zach Sanders this site, and maybe y’all are listening because his ADP went from 127 at the time of his post to 130.34 currently. Well, maybe a couple of you are listening, but we’ll let Zach’s analysis speak for itself. Yunel Escobar certainly is more likely to have a healthy year than Furcal and is going two-to-three rounds later (ADP 156.06), so you’d think he’s the value of his tier. There are certainly some nice things about Escobar – his power seems to be slowly developing as his ISO, fly ball and HR/FB numbers have all increased in his first three years in the league. But he still only shows modest power (his .136 ISO in 2009 was his career high) and unless you are in an OBP league, Escobar’s 15 or so home runs and five or so stolen bases aren’t very exciting.

The real value of this tier comes a whopping 111 picks later. Ryan Theriot won’t knock the stitches out of any balls this year, but once again we have the option of eschewing a mere dozen home runs at most and reaping the benefits of almost ten rounds of picks in the mean time (his ADP is 267.61!). Theriot should steal as many as 20 more bases than Escobar, all while putting up a similar batting average. His OBP won’t even be that much worse than Escobar’s, as he’s projected to put up a number in the .350s while the Atlanta shortstop should come in somewhere in the .370s. I’ll take the cheaper shortstop here, making Theriot the true value of the final shortstop tier.