ADP Values at Shortstop

When we checked the position at shortstop, it became clear through the tiers that there were some values to be had. Shortstop can be a tough position in fantasy baseball, because it’s one of the most volatile positions, but it’s also a shallow position. Having a stud there is immensely valuable, and that’s why many a successful manager will pick one in the early rounds. On the other hand, there were plenty of fantasy teams that were sunk by their early shortstop picks last year (thank you, Jose Reyes!).

So what are we to do? The answer, as always, is to focus on the position and yet avoid overpaying. So let’s take a look at the Average Draft Positions (via Mock Draft Central) and see some similar players that will cost disparate draft picks in 2010. That’ll bag us some value picks.

Alexei Ramirez is a fine player. He managed better-than-scratch defense at shortstop this year (+2.4 UZR/150), cut down on his terrible reach rate (from 42.7 to 32.1%), and made more contact in the zone (87.6% to 91%) in 2009. He still doesn’t hit line drives (16.1% career) and his power is suspect (.185 ISO in 2008, .113 ISO in 2009), but he’s a fine player with the upside to hit .280 with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. His ADP (108.2) is not terrible – using an eighth-round pick on that upside is fine.

But what if I told you that you could wait another six rounds and get someone that might better Ramirez’ production this year? That’s right, Elvis Andrus is being drafted, on average, with the 179th pick of drafts this year. Andrus won’t give you the power that his white-socked counterpart will provide, but he will certainly out-steal Sexei. The fans like Andrus for 42 stolen bases next year, and that is a reasonable projection given his 33 successful thefts in only 39 attempts in his rookie year. Their batting averages are projected to be similar (Andrus is projected from .266 to .280, Ramirez .277 to .286), so you’d be paying 70 draft spots for about ten home runs if you draft Ramirez. Andrus is the value here.

Rafael Furcal has already been eviscerated by Zach Sanders this site, and maybe y’all are listening because his ADP went from 127 at the time of his post to 130.34 currently. Well, maybe a couple of you are listening, but we’ll let Zach’s analysis speak for itself. Yunel Escobar certainly is more likely to have a healthy year than Furcal and is going two-to-three rounds later (ADP 156.06), so you’d think he’s the value of his tier. There are certainly some nice things about Escobar – his power seems to be slowly developing as his ISO, fly ball and HR/FB numbers have all increased in his first three years in the league. But he still only shows modest power (his .136 ISO in 2009 was his career high) and unless you are in an OBP league, Escobar’s 15 or so home runs and five or so stolen bases aren’t very exciting.

The real value of this tier comes a whopping 111 picks later. Ryan Theriot won’t knock the stitches out of any balls this year, but once again we have the option of eschewing a mere dozen home runs at most and reaping the benefits of almost ten rounds of picks in the mean time (his ADP is 267.61!). Theriot should steal as many as 20 more bases than Escobar, all while putting up a similar batting average. His OBP won’t even be that much worse than Escobar’s, as he’s projected to put up a number in the .350s while the Atlanta shortstop should come in somewhere in the .370s. I’ll take the cheaper shortstop here, making Theriot the true value of the final shortstop tier.