Rankings Update: Shortstop
Today while Andruw Jones is busting out the whoop-stick, we’ll bust out the in-season wOBA (and add ZiPS Ros wOBA) and go back to see what’s going on at shortstop. Enjoy the weekend!
The Big Four:
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida (.349 wOBA, .404 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (.338 wOBA, .362 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
3. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (.526 wOBA, .355 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
4. Derek Jeter, New York AL (.381 wOBA, .361 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
If the season ended today, Jeter would have the best ISO he’s had in eleven years(!), so it’s safe to say that he may even approach his career high in home runs this year (24). A twenty-twenty season would make Jeter a solid top option, and depending on Rollins’ final batting average and steals total, and Tulowitzki’s home run total, he may even be a top-3 shortstop by the end of the year. Not bad for a guy that went at the end of the third round in the spring.
The Next Best Thing:
5. Jose Reyes, New York NL (.285 wOBA, .361 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
6. Stephen Drew, Arizona (.377 wOBA, .341 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
7. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles NL (.369 wOBA, .331 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
8. Elvis Andrus, Texas (.344 wOBA, .342 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
9. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.322 wOBA, .352wOBA)
10. Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay (.306 wOBA, .333 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
Elvis Andrus and Rafael Furcal are the big winners this week. Furcal moves up just by being healthy another two weeks and stealing a few bases, while Andrus is doing some really nice things in this young season. He’s got a great line drive percentage and is walking 17% of the time – there’s a chance he betters his batting average yet. Also, he’s stolen enough bases to say that he could easily best his ZiPS updated projection of 35 steals. If he can nudge that average up just a little higher, he has the upside left to lead this tier, or at least join Drew and Reyes at the top.
Bartlett falls and is honestly in danger of dropping from this tier entirely. His ZiPS updated projection only calls for a .280 average and 19 steals now, and those aren’t scintillating numbers. The worst thing about his season so far is that most of his secondary statistics are more in line with his pre-2009 career. Zobrist enters the list ahead of him because he still has more power upside even if he’s not showing it right now.
The Leftovers:
11. Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland (.324 wOBA, .335 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
12. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore (.364 wOBA, .341 ZiPS wOBA)
13. Marco Scutaro, Boston (.324 wOBA, .355 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
14. Ryan Theriot, Cubs (.339 wOBA, .333 ZIPS RoS wOBA)
15. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago AL (.242 wOBA, .327 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
16. Alcides Escobar, Milwaukee (.300 wOBA, .315 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
Though there is a lot of movement in this tier, the big news here is that Erick Aybar drops off the list. I know he was moving up in the ranking, and I was guilty of the same sort of Aybar love in the pre-season, but a frank look at his statistics doesn’t offer much hope for his traditional roto stats this year. See, the thing is, he obviously has almost no power (.096 ISO career) and even his speed is suspect. He only came up with 14 steals last year, one so far this year, and his speed score is currently below average. If he doesn’t better last year’s steals total, has no power, and is now showing that his batting average is also no given, well, then, he’s not so interesting, is he? I’ll take Escobar’s upside because of his wheels, even if he doesn’t yet have a stolen base.
Theriot’s strong play (though utterly powerless (.050 ISO)) earns him a spot on the list at the cost of the scuffling Yunel Escobar. The other (other) Escobar’s lack of real power or speed, and his steps back in batted ball profile, limit his upside anyway.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Once again, the utility of this list is maximized by excluding Ben Zobrist. Nice work everybody.
Please see below before you call me an idiot. And I’m sorry if he was just forgotten. I’ve been leaving snarky messages trying to get people with multiple eligible positions included at all of their spots, and I thought that might be the case here with the best utility man in baseball.
#9
sorry, should have mentioned that Byron was right, it wasn’t there bfore.
If Aybar has lost a step, I think it would be reasonable to safely expect that his batting average will not come close to bouncing back. With such little power, he isn’t going to be able to beat out enough force outs at first.
Also, with Alexei Ramirez’s BABIP 50 pts under his career avg and his GB rate 10% higher than his career avg, how much of a long shot would he be to sneak into the top ten SS this year?
He’s showing up on waiver wires and being dealt for peanuts. I see some value there.
what about theriot???
Cliff Pennington needs some love…
Also, what about Alex Gonzalez? .289/7HR/19RBI and #2 SS on ESPN player rater
Sure, his HR/FB is due for regression but he’s also hitting more FB so far this year.
Last time he’s been in the line up for a full season he hit 23 bombs (full disclosure: it came with a .232 AVG). Sure, that was in 2004 (while helping the Marlin win the WS) but he appears to have full recovered from his knee injury that sent him into obscurity since 2006.
He’s 33 yrs old, so it appears to me that his renaissance has all the makings of a Comeback POY and a decent shot at being a top 5 SS.
Right now, I’d easily rather have him than Furcal or Bartlett. I wouldn’t be suprised if he outperformed the rest of the second tier.
… Seriously?
Two things about Aybar – 1) He is very fast. He just hadn’t developed into a base stealer yet. 2) He hit more homers in the minors than Furcal did and has the build and bat speed to certainly hit more. I think some of his power woes are due to his active effort to take more pitches (probably a good thing in real life) and his proclivity to try for infield hits.
Would you move Ethier, Granderson, and Alexei for Tulowitzki and Ibanez?
I wouldn’t unless there’s someone on the waiver you’re dying to pick up.
furcal has missed the last 4 games… not exactly healthy
Remarkably, the Rays have two players in “the next big thing” tier and would have a third in Reid Brignac (.326 wOBA) if he got enough playing time to justify any attention, so they’d still have two even if Bartlett really belongs one tier lower. It’s an embarrassment of riches, and a fine hedge against injury, but for everyone’s sake it would be nice if the Rays could engineer a trade for, I don’t know, a catcher perhaps?
brignac for doumit makes a ton of sense if u ask me, tony sanchez seems to be a bit better than expected with the bat and his defense is major league ready. let jaramillo hold down the spot til next year and bring in the SS of the future.
jaso is a beast folks, lets just hope navarro is the one that loses out, and not jaso.
…when Shoppach returns.
Hmmm, no word on Rafael Furcal dealing with hammy issues? If it’s going to be lingering issue for Furcal, his steals revival would be short-lived this season.
What exactly is Scutaro doing to justify his ranking? Only 21 runs so far, 1 stolen base and 7 RBIs?
I own him in a 16 team league because he cleared waivers and was worth a shot..but as far as I can tell he’s Cristian Guzman with walks.
Christian Guzman’s worst feature is that he doesn’t walk. I mean, this is like saying he’s like an athletic John Kruk.