Archive for Wandy Rodriguez

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 20.

Bronson Arroyo – He has gotten a decision in his last 11 games. This week Arroyo has two road starts but he has pitched better this season away from Great American Ball Park. Arroyo is 7-3 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.065 WHIP in road action. Put him in your lineup this week.

Dallas Braden – Since returning from an elbow injury that required a DL stint, Braden is 3-1 with a 2.83 ERA. His K rate is a tick better at 5.9 percent but where he has really excelled is in limiting the gopher ball. In 35 IP he has allowed 3 HR. This week he has two home starts against the Blue Jays and Rays. While Toronto leads the AL in HR, it has done most of that damage at home, where it has clubbed 103 HR in 1,852 AB. Make sure Braden is active.

Jonathon Niese – In his last nine games, Niese has thrown a Quality Start in seven of them. The only two times he did not were against the Diamondbacks. This year he has an 8.68 ERA against Arizona and a 3.09 ERA versus the rest of the league. Niese has two road starts this week, but is road ERA (3.57) is nearly identical to his mark in pitcher-friendly Citi Field. The Mets are no longer talking about skipping Niese in the rotation and neither should you.

Wandy Rodriguez – In the middle of June, Rodriguez was 3-10 with a 6.09 ERA. From that point on, he is 6-1 with a 1.79 ERA, which is one of the most dramatic turnarounds you will see. He has a 5.4 K/BB rate with 59 Ks in 60.1 IP. His first start this week against Niese should be a dandy. Keep Rodriguez active.

Barry Zito – He has stepped up his game since the All-Star break, with a 2.57 ERA in six second-half games and a 7.93 K/9. But Zito has struggled in road games this year, with a 2-4 record and a 4.30 ERA. With road matchups this week against Roy Oswalt and Adam Wainwright, it might be a good time to stash him on the bench.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 20 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Lee Wainwright, J. Santana, Weaver, Price, Verlander, Kershaw, Hanson, Nolasco, Danks, Oswalt, Garza, Buchholz, Billingsley, Scherzer, B. Anderson, Vazquez, Baker, Marcum, Garland, Hunter, D. Hudson, Minor, Wells, Gorzelanny, Correia, Francis, Fister, McDonald, Volstad, Millwood, Tomlin, Olsen, Bergesen, Duke, Figueroa.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 18 pitchers and how they fared.

Cahill – Advised to start. 2 W, 6 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.765 WHIP (2 starts)
L. Hernandez – Advised to sit. W, 7 Ks, 1.26 ERA, 0.977 WHIP (2)
D. Lowe – Advised to sit. W, 5 Ks, 2.38 ERA, 1.059 WHIP (2)
Myers – Advised to sit. 6 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.250 WHIP (2)
Vargas – Advised to start. 2 W, 5Ks, 2.25 ERA, 1.083 WHIP (2)

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 16. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

R.A. Dickey – The 35-year-old knuckleball pitcher has made 11 starts in the majors this year and has 9 Quality Starts. His only bad outing of the year (5 IP, 5 ER) came in Puerto Rico in a stadium which is not really up to major league standards. Dickey throws strikes, keeps the ball in the park and gets his share of ground balls. Even though he has two road starts this week, make sure he is in your lineup.

Tommy Hunter – Over the last two years (27 starts) Hunter is 15-6 with a 3.58 ERA, including a perfect 6-0 record this season with a 2.39 ERA. But Hunter’s xFIP is over two runs higher at 4.79, the exact same number it was in 2009. The good fortune comes from an 84.9 LOB%. But the real secret cannot be found in Hunter’s pitching record. Instead it comes from the Rangers’ offense, which gives him an average of 7.25 runs per game. It may be luck, but that is a very nice combination. Ride the streak and make sure Hunter is active for his two starts.

Jair Jurrjens – In three starts since being activated from the DL, Jurrjens is 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA. The overall numbers are still ugly but Jurrjens is getting his walks under control. Before going on the DL, he had a 4.13 BB/9. Since coming back he has allowed 7 BB in 17.2 IP. Last year he had a 3.14 BB/9. Neither the Padres nor Marlins are teams that draw a bunch of walks, with the Padres being essentially average while the Marlins rank 14th in the NL in bases on balls. Additionally, both teams are below average in runs scored. Jurrjens should be active this week.

Joel Pineiro – Three weeks ago Pinero was mentioned as a start option and he came through with flying colors. But this week fantasy owners should go the other way with the Angels lefty. Pineiro has a huge home/road split in 2010, with a 7-2 mark, a 2.37 ERA and a 1.105 WHIP at home but a 6.39 ERA and a 1.520 WHIP. This week he has road starts in New York and Texas. Put Pineiro on the bench this week.

Wandy Rodriguez – After 14 starts, Rodriguez had a 6.09 ERA and looked like a candidate to be dropped from the rotation. But in his last four outings, each a Quality Start, Rodriguez resembled the pitcher who appeared ready to become one of the top hurlers in the NL in the middle of 2009. Last year he had a 3.06 K/BB ratio. This year it is 1.93 in 101.1 IP. But over his last four starts, Rodriguez has 25 Ks and 6 BBs. This is the Rodriguez owners expected entering the year, so make sure to have him active.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 16 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Lincecum, Kershaw, Carpenter, Cueto, Jimenez, Hughes, Pelfrey, Silva, Matsuzaka, Leake, Baker, Bumgarner, Slowey, A. Sanchez, Cecil, Sheets, Kennedy, Davis, Moyer, Bonderman, Hudson, Fister, LeBlanc, Feldman, Bush, Francis, Kendrick, Tillman, Arrieta, McDonald, Galarraga, Robertson, Lincoln, Enright, Davies, Hawksworth, Karstens, Laffey, Litsch, Atilano, Martin, Pauley, Lerew.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. Since there was no two-start pitcher column for the All-Star break, there will be two week’s worth of results here.

Week 13
Braden – Advised to sit. Did not pitch – placed on DL
Hammel – Advised to start. W, 3.46 ERA, 12 Ks, 1.231 WHIP (2 starts)
Lilly – Advised to start W, 6.59 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.317 WHIP (2)
Morrow – Advised to sit. 6.00 ERA, 15 Ks, 1.583 WHIP
Pineiro – Advised to start. 2 W, 2.08 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.539 WHIP (2)

Week 14
Ely – Advised to start. 19.80 ERA, 4 Ks, 3.600 WHIP (2)
Floyd – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.23 ERA, 8 Ks, 0.955 WHIP (2)
Lowe – Advised to sit. 2.92 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.378 WHIP (2)
W. Rodriguez – Advised to start. W, 2.77 ERA, 16 Ks, 0.923 WHIP
Wilson – Advised to start. W, 3.38 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.125 WHIP (2)

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 14.

John Ely – After three rough outings in the middle of June, the concern was that the league figured out Ely. But he has rebounded with two strong starts of 7 IP, 1 ER each with 11 Ks in 14 IP. Overall he has a 3.62 ERA with a FIP and xFIP that support those numbers. Make sure he is active for his home starts against the Marlins and Cubs this week.

Gavin Floyd – All year long Floyd’s peripherals have been better than his results. And in his last five games, Floyd has pitched very well, although he does not have the Wins to prove it. He is 1-1 in that stretch but with a 1.26 ERA with 7 BB and 33 Ks in 35.2 IP. Floyd has favorable matchups this week with two home starts, one against the struggling Scott Kazmir and the other against Anthony Lerew and the Royals. He needs to be in the lineup.

Derek Lowe – Seven times this season, Lowe has received six or more runs from the Braves offense, which explains how a pitcher with a 4.53 ERA has 9 W at the beginning of June. While Lowe has pitched much better since mid-May, he still has a 5.09 road ERA and this week has starts in Philadelphia and in New York. Put him on the bench this week if you have other options.

Wandy Rodriguez – 2010 got off to a rough start for Rodriguez and then a five game stretch starting in late May it turned even worse. In that span, he went 1-4 with a 10.03 ERA and a 2.100 WHIP. But Rodriguez has seemingly turned it around by allowing just 1 ER in his last 13 IP and has picked up Wins in his past two starts. Even while struggling, Rodriguez’ ERA at home is 1.17 runs lower, thanks to keeping the ball in the park. With home starts this week against the Pirates and Jeff Suppan and the Cardinals, look for Rodriguez to continue his strong pitching of late.

C.J. Wilson – He has pitched well both at home and on the road this year but Wilson has notched five of his six wins in Texas and he has a 6.98 K/9 in his home park. This week he is home against last-place Cleveland and last-place Baltimore, so Wilson needs to be in the starting lineup.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 14 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Halladay, Weaver, F.Hernandez, Hamels, Peavy, Niemann, Pelfrey, Vazquez, Garza, Silva, J. Sanchez, Richard, Kazmir, Sheets, Matsuzaka, Slowey, Wolf, Kennedy, Bumgarmer, Harang, Francis, Masterson, Gorzelanny, Galarraga, Padilla, Volstad, Millwood, Arrieta, Bush, Robertson, Bannister, Lincoln, Volquez, Suppan, Laffey, Litsch, Rowland-Smith, Beltre, Enright, Martin.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 12 pitchers and how they fared.

Davis – Advised to sit. 3.09 ERA, 6 Ks, 1.371 WHIP (2 starts)
G. Gonzalez – Advised to start. 2 W, 0.69 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.000 WHIP (2)
Moyer – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.80 ERA, 12 Ks, 0.600 WHIP (2)
Niese – Advised to start. W, 5.06 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.594 WHIP (2)
Vargas – Advised to start. W, 2.25 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.083 WHIP (2)

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Jose Reyes – Those owners who gambled on Reyes might be ready to cut bait. In addition to his .232 AVG, Reyes’ walk rate is less than half of what it was a season ago, he has yet to hit a single HR after reaching double-digits in his last three healthy seasons and he ranks fifth in the majors with a 20.0 IFFB%. But since returning to the leadoff spot 10 games ago, Reyes is batting .283 with 8 R and 3 SB. It’s too late to get him for pennies on the dollar but RoS ZiPS shows him with 30 SB the rest of the way. And those will be worthy paying for if they come with above average R and AVG marks.

Wandy Rodriguez – His BB/9 is up, while his K/9 and HR/9 are down from a year ago. It adds up to an ERA 1.31 higher than it was in 2009 and an xFIP 76 points above last year’s mark. Rodriguez has struggled this year with his curveball. The pitch which had been such a strong offering for the previous three seasons now checks in with a wCB/C of -2.55, a change of 4.5 runs from 2009. It is hard to imagine his curve being so poor the rest of the season – the most likely scenarios are that he either improves with it from here on out or ends up on the DL. If his back can hold up, Rodriguez is a good buy-low candidate.

Ervin Santana – His numbers look solid overall but Santana has pitched very well after getting roughed up in his first two starts of the year. He allowed 9 ER in his first 11.2 IP but since then Santana has given up 19 ER in 57.1 IP for a 2.98 ERA. While his average FB velocity is still down from his big 2008 season, Santana is getting good mileage with his slider. On Tuesday’s start against the Blue Jays, Santana got 14 swinging strikes with his slider. His xFIP and RoS ZiPS both show Santana as a sell candidate but with each start he looks further removed from 2009’s 5.03 ERA and closer the 2008 version, even without the great fastball.

SELL

Adrian Beltre – Many people expected Beltre to bounce back in 2010 with his move to Fenway Park. Safeco Field suppressed power from RH hitters and many thought that Beltran would at least get back to his mid-20s HR power, if not more than that. But Beltre has a career-low 28.9 FB%, making a big HR season virtually impossible. Right now Beltre’s value is tied up in his .327 AVG, which is the result of his .381 BABIP. Beltre has topped .300 just once in his career. He has a .293 lifetime BABIP and his career-best is the .325 he posted in 2004.

Alex Rios – He has rebounded nicely from last year’s dismal performance and is on pace for 34 HR and 53 SB. But Rios has a career-high 14.3 HR/FB rate and a 45.7 FB%, also a personal-best. And not only is Rios hitting more fly balls, he has a 53.9 FB% in his home park, where he has hit six of his nine HR. Perhaps Rios has a completely different approach at the plate at home than he does on the road. But it is more likely to be a fluke. Odds are against Rios hitting 34 HR and even the 24 that Updated ZiPS projects might be optimistic. Clearly, at age 29, a career-high in HR would not be unexpected, but do not expect him to shatter his previous best of 24 HR. Also, Rios’ career-high in SB is 32 and in his other five full seasons in the majors, he has averaged 17 SB per year.

Alfonso Soriano – George Steinbrenner once dubbed Dave Winfield “Mr. May” and that moniker might work for Soriano, too. He is batting .347 with 6 HR and 16 RBIs this month with six games left to play. Lifetime, Soriano has 67 HR in May, the most of any month in his career. Soriano currently has a .363 BABIP and a .306 ISO, both of which would easily be career-bests. Fantasy owners likely got Soriano at a huge discount after his poor season in 2009. While they should not just give him away, neither should his owners look to get too greedy with a player who has missed 98 games the past two seasons.

HUNCH

Joe Saunders – I am a big Saunders fan because he consistently delivers Wins despite poor peripherals. Even with a 3-6 record this year, Saunders has a 51-28 lifetime record. After starting the season 1-5 with a 7.04 ERA, Saunders has seemingly gotten back on track in his last four games, going 2-1 with a 1.57 ERA. I like him to better his RoS ZiPS projection of a 9-8 record and 4.84 ERA.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, third basemen, right fielders, left fielders and center fielders.)

Of course, when it comes to pitchers, the format suffers. We’re not about to do tiered rankings for the top 75+ pitchers that get drafted every year in mixed leagues – that would be one long post. Instead, we’re doing starters by tiers. Tier one, otherwise known as SP1, was last week. SP2 is below.

Imagine if, on offense, you were just able to pick whomever regardless of position? Or, more correctly, what if there were only two positions on offense in fantasy baseball? Infield and Outfield? That’s what it’s like on the pitching side. So, not surprisingly, the second tier of fantasy starting pitchers looks pretty nice. (It’s also reason #36,978 to draft pitching later!)

All of the hurlers in the first tier could easily end up as fantasy aces next year. Matt Cain and Javier Vazquez were probably even SP1s last year… we just doubt their ability to repeat those seasons. Jake Peavy got a demotion from the first set of pitchers because of his health and move to the stronger league. Yovani Gallardo and Tommy Hanson are young, exciting, and ascendant: pick one of them as your SP1 and follow it up with a possible bounce-back veteran like Cole Hamels, and your likelihood of having two fantasy aces is high.

The next tier just has more question marks. Clayton Kershaw has some awesome pitches, and an equally terrible walk rate to go with them. Jair Jurrjens just had too many stranded runners and too many bouncing balls go his way to trust him to be anywhere as good as he was last year. Wandy Rodriguez has now sustained his excellence two years in a row – but his fastball barely cracks 90 miles per hour, and throwing all those curveballs (almost 40%) has to catch up with you some day, maybe. John Lackey brings multiple question marks (rising walk rate, dropping strikeout rate and innings totals) with him into a new stadium. Chad Billingsley looks like he got a little unlucky last year and may return to grace, but given his walk rate, his WHIP may never be elite.

The final tier includes some semi-controversial pitchers, since we all seem to love Brett Anderson more than his major league numbers perhaps bear out. It could be because of his unique stuff, as Dave Allen showed us a while back in a great post. Then we have numbers that seem to suggest that Ricky Nolasco was very unlucky last year and should be in line for a good season as the luck pendulum swings back for him. We also see two former aces that have ridden injuries to the bottom of the SP2s in Roy Oswalt and Brandon Webb. Webb’s injury is a bigger deal because it was in his shoulder, but Oswalt is a slight guy with declining innings totals that has talked of an early retirement.

And then we have the two toughest names to place on this list. James Shields never had plus strikeout rates, and with the walk rate and WHIP rising slowly, you have to wonder if he’ll just always be a high-3s ERA guy that won’t get you much more than 160 Ks. Joining him is fellow low-WHIP meister Scott Baker. Both pitchers actually have okay strikeout rates, good walk rates, poor home run rates, and high-3s FIPs. Their low WHIP makes them attractive, and they are good pitchers. But who do you move off the list to get them on?

Recently, reader Pat left a comment on an article, asking:

“Can’t alot of pitchers HR/FB rates be expected to increase in the second half just due to the weather? … [T]herefore it would seem like a good strategy in a points league to stack pitching in the first half (and then look to make moves around the allstar break to acquire hitters).”

The reasoning here is that since bats tend to heat up as the weather gets warmer, hoard pitching early and then pick up hitters when the season is in full swing and 80 and 90 degree days are the norm.

Seems like a reasonable strategy, but would it work?

Since we would hoard pitchers early, let’s look at the top 20 starting pitchers, as determined by the final dollar values from the RotoTimes Player Rater, and check out their monthly HR and HR/FB data.

If HR prevention is the goal of this strategy, 16 of our 20 top pitchers had a HR/FB rate less than 11 percent in the final month of the season. Even August, the month last year where more HR by far were hit than any other, saw eight of our 20 pitchers have a HR/FB rate beneath 11 percent.

And this does not even take into account that the pitchers who were ranked top 20 at the beginning of the year often are nowhere to be found near the top of the leaderboard at the conclusion of the year. Using my friend Troy Patterson’s 2009 Starting Pitcher Rankings, here are the ones that did not make the top 20 at the end of the year:

Johan Santana (1), Brandon Webb (4), Jake Peavy (5), Cole Hamels (8), James Shields (10), Roy Oswalt (11), Ervin Santana (13), John Lackey (14), AJ Burnett (15), Edinson Volquez (16), Scott Kazmir (17), Carlos Zambrano (18), Chad Billingsley (19) and Daisuke Matsuzaka (20).

If you went into your draft convinced to load up on pitching, you could have wound up with a staff of Santana, Webb, Peavy, Hamels, Oswalt, Lackey and Burnett and at the All-Star break found other owners willing to offer you very little hitting in return.

Now, let us look at how pitchers as a whole fared in 2009. Here are the first and second half splits for all of the pitchers in MLB in 2009:

1st half – 4.32 ERA, 1.389 WHIP
2nd half – 4.33 ERA, 1.391 WHIP

It does not always work out this close, but this is yet another example of how easy this strategy could go awry.

Finally, you also have to consider how your league will handle trading with you when you have such an obvious need for hitters. Will your league-mates be willing to help you out and offer fair or even somewhat reasonable trades given how needy you are for offense? In friendly leagues that might not be a problem but it would likely be a bigger issue the more competitive your league is.

The best pitchers can dominate (or like Rodriguez in June – get lit up) at any point in the season. Stacking up on pitching only to turn around and deal it for hitting at the All-Star break seems like the fantasy baseball equivalent of market timing and not the best way to ensure long-term success.

Here is the latest update to Week 25 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

HOU – Rodriguez
DET – Jackson
CHC – Wells
TEX – Millwood
CIN – Cueto
ARI – Davis
BOS – Wakefield
MIL – Bush
TEX – McCarthy
CHW – Carrasco

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts

BOS – Beckett
CHC – Marquis
CHW – Floyd
CLE – Laffey
TEX – Nippert
ARI – Buckner

Rodriguez has two home starts against pitchers coming off injury/illness this week. Perhaps no elite pitcher has a bigger home/road split than Rodriguez. In Minute Maid Park, he is 8-2 with a 1.58 ERA and a 0.979 WHIP. In road starts Rodriguez is 5-8 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.440 WHIP.

Jackson has allowed five earned runs in back-to-back starts. In his last five games he has a 6.03 ERA yet has gone 2-2 in that stretch.

Wells has also given up five runs in back-to-back starts but in the former outing, four of those were unearned. In his last eight starts, Wells has allowed five-or-more runs four times. He is 2-5 in those eight outings but his ERA is a respectable 3.83 in that stretch.

Millwood is 10-10 this season. Since 2004, he is exactly 63-63. This year the average ERA in the American League is 4.45 and since 2004 Millwood checks in with a 4.38 mark. Despite that average-ness, Millwood is enjoying a fortunate season in 2009. His 4.91 FIP is a career high while his 78.5 percent strand rate is the second-highest of his career.

Cueto had his start last week pushed back due to the flu and is now scheduled to go Tuesday against the Pirates. He finally broke a six-game losing streak on the last day of August and in his last three games before getting ill, Cueto had a 2.76 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 16.1 innings.

Davis has received two runs or less of support in 12 of his 31 games, which helps explain his 7-13 record despite a 4.01 ERA. He has five Quality Starts in his last seven games, yet is 0-3 in that stretch.

Wakefield is scheduled for two starts this week in his first action since receiving a cortisone injection in his spine on September 10th. The veteran knuckleball pitcher had been experiencing weakness in both his back and legs the past few weeks.

Bush is tied with Cueto for the major league lead with 14 HBP. It is even more impressive when you consider that Bush missed over two months with a torn triceps muscle. He does not even have enough innings to show up on the FanGraphs leader boards. Five times this season, Bush has hit multiple batters in a game, including plunking three hitters in an April game versus Pittsburgh.

McCarthy has been unimpressive in three starts since recovering from a stress fracture in his right shoulder. He has limited batters to a .203 average in those three games but has a 5.17 ERA. Two starts ago it was the long ball which did McCarthy in, as he gave up two homers in 6.1 innings against Cleveland. In his last outing he allowed seven baserunners in three innings against Oakland.

Carrasco has just one start this season for the White Sox, but is 5-1 with a 3.24 ERA as a reliever. His primary pitch is a cutter, although he also throws a four-seam fastball and a slider. Carrasco is not a good pickup for his two starts, as he has not exceeded four innings nor 67 pitches in an outing this season.

Here is the latest update to Week 21 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

HOU – Rodriguez
STL – Pineiro
CHC – Zambrano

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

CHC – Harden

Rodriguez has won seven of his last eight decisions. In that span he has a 2.38 ERA with 23 BB and 63 SO in 72 IP. For the season, Rodriguez’ FIP is nearly a run higher than his ERA due to an 81 percent strand rate. One thing to keep in mind about Rodriguez is that he pitches much better at home despite Minute Maid Park being a hitter-friendly place. Rodriguez is 7-2 with a 1.73 ERA at home compared to a 5-5, 4.21 road mark. Both of the starts for Rodriguez are on the road.

Pineiro and his major league leading 61.1 percent ground ball rate have two home starts this week. After opening the season 6-9, Pineiro is 6-0 over his last nine starts and he pitched well enough to win two other times in that span. Even with his puny SO rate, Pineiro is a must-start now in all leagues, and the two starts this week is a nice bonus.

Zambrano has been on the disabled list with an injured back but is slated to be activated Tuesday following a minor league rehab start where he pitched five scoreless innings and notched five strikeouts. Before landing on the DL, Zambrano was 3-0 in his last five starts with a 2.93 ERA and 26 SO in 27.2 IP. Zambrano has home starts this week against the Nationals and Mets, the two bottom teams in the National League East.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 11.

Kevin Correia – Coming off back-to-back wins, Correia gets two home starts in Petco this week. And he also squares off against Seattle and Oakland, two below-average run scoring teams, with Seattle being last in the AL with a 3.77 runs per game average. Correia is owned in only seven percent of CBS Sports leagues and could be a nice pickup for his two starts this week.

Gil Meche – Slowed part of the season by a sore back, Meche has turned in three straight solid outings, in which he has 20 strikeouts in 20 IP with a 1.35 ERA in that span. However, he is just 1-0 in those three games, indicative of the poor run support he has received in 2009. The Royals have scored two runs or fewer in six of his 13 starts this year. Make Meche active for his two home starts this week.

Wandy Rodriguez – After starting the season 5-2 with a 1.83 ERA, Rodriguez has allowed 19 runs in his last 20.2 IP. His ERA now stands at 2.82 and only six unearned runs in that stretch kept it from being even worse. His road ERA is 3.74, over 1.5 runs higher than his home mark, and he has starts this week at Texas and at Minnesota. Pull him from your lineup this week.

Tim Wakefield – He has a great record this year despite some uneven pitching. But he is coming off back-to-back Quality Starts and he has two home starts in Interleague matchups scheduled this week. Since 2006, Wakefield is 6-2 in Interleague play. Make sure he is active this week.

Barry Zito – After some tough luck earlier in the season, Zito has picked up two consecutive wins despite not pitching all that well. He has two home starts this week and Zito gets the nod to start due to his big home/road split in 2009. This year he has a 2.70 ERA with a 2.44 K/BB ratio at home compared to a 5.26 ERA and a 1.25 K/BB ratio in road games.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 11 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Verlander, F. Hernandez, Hamels, Wainwright, Zambrano, Jurrjens, Harang, Lackey, Kershaw, Liriano, Danks, Volstad, Pavano, Pelfrey, Braden, Wang, D. Davis, Bush, Niemann, Guthrie, De La Rosa, Martis, Morton, Mathis.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 9 and how they did.

Arroyo – Advised to start. 7 K, 4.38 ERA, 1.30 WHIP (2 starts)
Blanton – Advised to start. W, 10 K, 2.77 ERA, 1.00 WHIP (2)
Burnett – Advised to sit. W, 8 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP (1)
Duke – Advised to sit. W, 0 K, 1.29 ERA, 1.29 WHIP (1)
Washburn – Advised to start. 9 K, 1.38 ERA, 1.15 WHIP (2)

Hopefully you were able to pick up Brett Cecil and J.J. Hardy last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Ramon Hernandez – Throughout his career, Hernandez has delivered solid HR totals for a catcher. In his last three seasons, he averaged nearly 16 HR per season. So far this year, Hernandez has only one homer. The Great American Ball Park is the sixth-best park for HR this year, according to the single-season park factors at ESPN. Hernandez is not hitting as many fly balls as he has recently, but the falloff has not been dramatic (only 1.5% below last year) and he should deliver more power going forward.

Matt Harrison – After giving up 15 ER in his first 14.2 IP, Harrison has allowed just six ER in his last 30 innings. It would be nice if he struck out a few more batters, but his BABIP is .301, he gets groundballs (1.40 GB/FB) and he has a 0.81 HR/9. The big lefty averages nearly 91 with his fastball, throws four pitches and his FIP is almost identical to his ERA.

Billy Butler – In his first 18 games of the season, Butler had a .193 AVG with zero HR and three RBIs. Since then he has a .348-3-15-15-0 fantasy line, also in 18 games. Butler arrived in the majors with a reputation of being a good hitter with limited defensive value. He has found a home at first base and the bat may be finally coming around. Butler probably won’t hit enough HR to be a starting first baseman but should have a good average and double-digit HRs.

Brian Tallet – A reliever at the beginning of the year, Tallet moved into the rotation on April 24th and has pitched very well as a starter in four of his five outings. The lone bad start was a meltdown, in which he allowed 10 ER in four innings, and that is keeping his overall numbers high. Tallet is owned in less than two percent of ESPN leagues and is a nice pickup for the back of your rotation.

Matt Holliday – Overrated at the beginning of the year with an ADP of 12, Holliday compounded things by getting off to a terrible start. But the average is starting to pick up and he has hit three HR in May after posting zero in April. Clearly, he is not going to be the fantasy stud that he was in Colorado, but ZiPS projects him to hit .284 with 19 HR and 77 RBIs the rest of the season.

Trade

Russell Branyan – A near lock to post career highs in every single fantasy category, Branyan is unlikely to keep up his current rate of production. No one ever doubted his power but his .368 BABIP and .333 ISO are unsustainable over a full season. A platoon or bench player throughout his career, Branyan has done it for six-plus weeks now as a full-time player and there should be a market for his bat, especially from an owner light on HR.

Jered Weaver – In his last six games, Weaver has five Quality Starts. But he’s been the beneficiary of some good fortune. Overall, he has a .228 BABIP and an 84.1 percent strand rate. Weaver has had an ERA within 0.50 of his FIP the past two seasons but this year his FIP is 4.10 compared to a 2.59 ERA.

Pedro Feliz – He has never been a good hitter for average because his BABIP has never topped .300 in any season in which he played more than 10 games. This year it sits at .343 which has led to a .308 AVG. Feliz used to be a consistent power source. He hit between 20-22 HR in four straight seasons but saw his power output drop to 14 last year. His FB% is in decline and he will need to reverse that trend (and hope for a regression in his HR/FB rate) just to match 2008’s output.

Wandy Rodriguez – One of the top fantasy pitchers so far in 2009, Rodriguez has flown somewhat under the radar due to the fantastic starts by Zack Greinke and Johan Santana. Most of Rodriguez’ numbers do not scream out regression but they are all better than career norms, which has a nice overall effect. The one exception is that he has not allowed a single HR this season in 52 IP, despite playing half his games in Minute Maid Park, which is the third-best park for HR this year.

Fred Lewis – Last year Lewis proved he could handle a full-time role and he opened the year in the coveted third-spot in the Giants’ lineup. Since then he has hit for a solid average but not produced much in other categories. Lewis has also bounced around in the lineup, batting every slot in the order except cleanup. That makes it hard to predict his R, RBI and SB going forward. ZiPS does not see him improving on last year’s numbers and even sees him falling off in AVG. Trade him now while his .294 AVG still looks good.