Archive for Wandy Rodriguez

Looking at the pitching waiver wire this week, the top two most-added names are newly-minted closers Jose Valverde & Edward Mujica, which is unsurprising. The third, seeing a whopping +40.2% add rate in ESPN leagues and 24% raise in start rate in CBS leagues, is none other than Pittsburgh’s Wandy Rodriguez.

I get why, of course. You look at the surface-level stats and they seem impressive. 2-0 in four starts! 16/3 K/BB! 1.66 ERA! What’s not to like?
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The Pittsburgh Pirates squeezed about as much value out of A.J. Burnett, James McDonald, Kevin Correia, and Jeff Karstens as possible in 2012, yet their team ERA- was still worse than league average. Correia is out, and Francisco Liriano is in, and now of course they get Wandy Rodriguez for a full season. So things look kinda alright for Pirates fans. But from a fantasy perspective, there are a couple opportunities, a couple landmines, and maybe a position battle still to be watched.

A.J. Burnett is the ostensible leader of this crew after his impressive re-emergence as a good fantasy option after the debacle in New York. His strikeout rate crept back up over 21%, the first time in three years, and his walk rate was just about the best it has been in his career at a fairly stingy 7.3%. In standard 5×5 leagues, Burnett was really quite valuable – he had a decent ERA (3.51), he won games (16), and he had a respectable WHIP (1.24).

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For the first three seasons of his career, Wandy Rodriguez was nothing more than your average, run-of-the-mill starting pitcher.  He had an ERA that ranged from 4.58 to 5.64, a HR/FB rate perpetually above 10%, his walk rate was too high and his strikeout rate was too low.  There was very little worthwhile contribution from him to the fantasy baseball community.  But then Wandy turned a corner in his fourth full season and from there, began to blossom into a pitcher of value.  Sure, he had his explosive moments on the hill, but overall, he settled in nicely as one of the Astros more consistent and reliable starters.  His ERA stayed below 4.00, the home runs came down, and he started posting a K/9 that was steadily just above 8.00 each season.  However, last season there was regression across the board save for the ERA and suddenly the numbers were starting to look horribly similar to his early years, including a horrific 13.0% HR/FB rate.  Now, with the Astros moving to the American League West soon, the question is whether or not Wandy can right the ship or have we seen the best that he has to offer?

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One of the primary reasons that people give as to why they opt not to play fantasy baseball but are the first to form a fantasy football league is the sheer length of the season.  Six months is apparently two months too long for them.  However, those of us that are able to cope with the time frame know the real answer; the amount of work it takes to, not only prep for the season, but to stay active and alert all season long can be a testament to one’s patience, work ethic and mental endurance.

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With the trade deadline fast approaching, owners playing in league-specific formats are going to be in for a hard time. When players change leagues, some owners are going to get hosed and some owners are going to get lucky. With all of that in mind, here’s some advice on how to handle a handful of starters who could get dealt.

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Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 14.

Colby Lewis – Home runs are killing Lewis this year, as he has allowed the third most HR (20) in all of baseball. He was pounded in back-to-back starts where he allowed 4 HR and 15 ER in 4.2 IP in early June. But in his last three starts, Lewis has allowed “only” 3 HR in 20.1 IP and picked up two wins. This week Lewis gets the A’s and O’s. Oakland ranks last in the AL with 43 HR in 83 games. Baltimore has more power, but 50 of its 83 HR have come at home this season. Look for Lewis to maintain his recent strong pitching and give him a starting nod this week.

Shaun Marcum – A hip flexor has slowed Marcum recently after the veteran got off to a 7-2 start in his first season with the Brewers. In his last three outings, Marcum has allowed 8 ER in 9 IP, two of which came on the road. This week Marcum is scheduled for two home starts. And while he has a 4-1 home record this season, Marcum has a 4.13 ERA at Miller Park, nearly two runs higher than his road mark. Given his recent struggles, give Marcum a week off to get healthier.

Wandy Rodriguez – The elbow injury that sidelined Rodriguez for three weeks has not been a lingering problem. He was just finding his stride before being put on the DL and in his four starts since being activated, Rodriguez is 3-1 with a 1.80 ERA with 20 Ks in 25 IP. While he does have two road starts this week, Rodriguez is 4-2 with a 3.20 ERA on the road this season. He has struggled some with the gopher ball this year, but he takes on PIT and FLA this week, two teams that are below-average in hitting homers. Rodriguez should be in your lineup this week.

Tim Stauffer – It would be hard to find a pitcher whose ERA more closely matches his peripherals than Stauffer. His 2.97 ERA is nearly identical to his 3.01 FIP and 2.99 xFIP. Stauffer has been on a role lately, with a 3-1 record and a 1.00 ERA in his past five starts. However, four of those games came at home and the other was in MIN. This week he has to go on the road to face SF and LAD. Stauffer has pitched well away from Petco (3.25 ERA) and neither the Giants (46 runs in last 14 games) nor Dodgers (53 runs in last 15) have been lighting up the scoreboard recently. Look for Stauffer to continue his strong pitching and keep him active.

Jordan Zimmermann – In his last 11 starts, Zimmermann has 11 Quality Starts. And not one of those barely meets the requirements at 6 IP and 3 ER. In fact, he’s only allowed 3 ER once in the 11 games. He has an outstanding 1.85 ERA in this stretch. Yet he’s only 4-3. Zimmermann is not striking out batters at his previous rate but he holds a BB/9 of just 1.75 and has been stingy with the long ball (3.1 HR/FB) this year. The HR rate makes his xFIP (3.67) a full run higher than his overall ERA (2.63) but is still a solid mark. With two home starts this week, keep plugging Zimmermann into your lineup.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 14 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Lincecum, F. Hernandez, Shields, Cain, Lester, Haren, Price, Scherzer, Hudson, Cueto, J. Garcia, Jimenez, Carpenter, Baker, Morrow, Hanson, Burnett, Peavy, Dempster, Nolasco, Zambrano, Carrasco, Tomlin, Harrison, Lowe, Buehrle, Wolf, Lilly, Volquez, Myers, Lackey, Capuano, Duensing, Worley, Pelfrey, Maholm, Pineiro, Richards, R. de la Rosa, Francis, Furbush, Cecil, Volstad, Moscoso, Cook, Jakubauskas, McCarthy, Duke

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 12 pitchers and how they fared.

Gee – Advised to start. W, 2 Ks, 6.30 ERA, 1.900 WHIP, 10 IP, 7 ER
Holland – Advised to sit. W, 4 Ks, 4.05 ERA, 1.575 WHIP, 13.1 IP, 6 ER
Narveson – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 4.05 ERA, 1.125 WHIP, 13.1 IP, 6 ER
Pavano – Advised to sit. W, 7 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.286 WHIP, 14 IP, 7 ER
Zambrano – Advised to sit. W, 7 Ks, 3.00 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 15 IP, 5 ER

Here is the latest update to Week 3 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update:

J. Sanchez, C. Wilson, W. Rodriguez, Rogers, Blanton, Westbrook, Carrasco, J. Gomez

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Carmona, Lewis

Of the new pitchers let’s look at Wandy Rodriguez. He has an ownership rate of 91 percent in CBS Sports leagues. However, he is off to a rough start, with an 0-2 record and a 7.31 ERA in three games. While his K rate is down, so too, is his BB rate. The end result is a 3.67 K/BB ratio, an outstanding mark. Rodriguez has allowed just one home run in 16 IP, so he is not being hurt by the gopher ball.

It all comes down to his BABIP which is at a head-shaking .417, the second-worst mark currently in the majors, trailing just Matt Garza. Rodriguez has been a solid pitcher in the past and it would be an easy assumption to make to put him in your lineup and wait for his BABIP to normalize.

However, you might want to sit him for another week.

Minute Maid Park has always been a hitter-friendly venue, but Rodriguez has actually fared much better historically at home than he has on the road. In his career he has a .585 winning percentage and a 3.48 ERA in Houston compared to a .381 winning percentage and a 5.12 ERA in road parks. In his lone road start this season, Rodriguez allowed 9 H and 7 ER in 4 IP.

In Week 3, Rodriguez has road starts in New York and Milwaukee. Rodriguez has but one start in Citi Field, but came out on the losing end with 8 H and 3 ER in 6 IP. He has 11 career starts in Miller Park and is 3-6 with a 5.97 ERA and a 1.641 WHIP in 60.1 IP.

Last week’s Sunday night look was Jeff Francis. He had 13.1 IP, 14 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 6 Ks and 2 QS.

Here are your results from last week’s round of voting. Don’t forget to submit your vote for today’s ballot (Joe Nathan), which went up earlier this morning.

Pablo Sandoval
My vote: 9
Average: 10.63
Median: 10
Std Dev: 3.73

Apparently I was off a little bit, but these results seem about right to me. However, the fairly large standard deviation worries me, as I’d like to see it drop down about a full round. But, it shows just how much argument there will be when it comes to Kung Fu Panda’s value. Valuing Sandoval as a late 10th round pick means owners are expecting something close to a .280 average with 17 homers with a little more than 70 runs scored and driven in. Those numbers are fairly reasonable for Pablo, so you aren’t going to get much of a deal if you take him in the tenth. If he could fall to me in the 12th, I’d be much more excited, but I suppose I could talk myself into a 10th round selection if I hadn’t taken a third baseman yet.

Wandy Rodriguez
My vote: 9
Average: 10.97
Median: 10.5
Std Dev: 2.71

Just like Pablo, I leaned a little too early with Wandy. I am very happy with the smaller standard deviation, though, and it makes me much more confident in your conclusions. Selecting Wandy on the 10-11 turn means that owners aren’t expecting a whole lot from him. In fact, if he can just put up the same overall numbers as last year, he’ll be worth more than that. I don’t think that means that you, the voter, are wrong. It just shows the lack of respect Wandy will receive, especially after his early season slump last year. If I can grab Wandy in the late 10th or early 11th to be my third starter, I’m very happy with that. All it would take for Wandy to be worthy of a second starter ranking would be lucking into some wins, and that’s a chance I’m willing to take.

Today in ADP Crowdsourcing, I go all Harry Potter and talk about Wandy Rodriguez.

Most owners probably don’t realize just how good Wandy Rodriguez was last season after he started slow for the Astros. If you gave up on him during his doldrums last year, I can’t blame you, because I was among the many who did (and regretted it later).

Wandy had a really hard time in May and June, as he couldn’t strike batters out at a high rate and was starting to lose a grip on his walk rate. Sure, his whiff rate was down during those two months, but not astronomically so (puns!). He bounced back in the next two months, striking out over a batter an inning in July and August, with a K/BB rate just below 5.00. August was especially impressive, as he posted an ERA of 1.34 with a 1.86 FIP to boot.

Wandy has been very consistent over the past three seasons, delivering a FIP around 3.55, a strikeout rate around 8.5 per nine, and a swinging strike rate around the 9% mark. And he’s done it all while relying on two pitches. For someone who just came into the spotlight a few years ago, Wandy will already be 32 years of age when next season comes around, but he should still be able to deliver good numbers next season.

Because Wandy’s always seemed to fly under the radar anyway, are owners going to completely overlook him after his slow start last year? It’s your call, and I appreciate the input. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring. Please note that because of the Thanksgiving holiday, ADP results will not be up until Monday.

To submit your vote, click here.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 23.

Brett Anderson – In his last six games, Anderson has five Quality Starts and a 3.09 ERA. Yet somehow he is 1-4 in this stretch. Anderson has 28 Ks and 10 BB in 35.1 IP and has allowed just 3 HR. Seemingly past the elbow inflammation that kept him sidelined for nearly two months earlier in the season, make sure Anderson is active this week for his two home starts.

Yovani Gallardo – For his career, Gallardo has a 2.86 ERA before the All-Star break and a 4.73 mark afterwards. This season he has a 7.23 ERA in eight second-half starts. The schedule seems favorable with home starts against the Cardinals and Cubs but Gallardo is just 5-5 with a 4.54 ERA at home this year. Take him out of the lineup if you have any other option.

Edwin Jackson – Since joining the White Sox in early August, Jackson has hurled a Quality Start in each of his five games. He has an 11.05 K/9 with Chicago and has lowered his BB/9 to 1.96. Jackson’s 1.47 ERA may not be sustainable, but his FIP is 2.37 and his xFIP is 2.35 in his brief time with the White Sox. He gets the Tigers and Royals this week, so make sure Jackson is starting.

Wandy Rodriguez – Very little has changed since I recommended Rodriguez back in Week 20. Since then he’s gone 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA in four games, with 7 BB and 27 Ks in 28 IP. His turnaround has been remarkable yet he is still active in just 66 percent of CBS Sports leagues. With games against the Cubs and Dodgers this week, there is no reason not to have Rodriguez in your lineup.

Jason Vargas – One of the bright spots this year for the Mariners has been the performance of Vargas, but the veteran lefty has been stumbling lately. In his last three starts he is 0-3 with a 6.52 ERA. Furthermore, Vargas has been a different pitcher away from Safeco Field this year. In road games, Vargas is 2-4 with a 4.95 ERA, nearly 2 ½ runs worse than his home mark. Since Vargas has starts this week in Oakland and Anaheim, give him a spot on the bench.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 23 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Jimenez, Lester, Verlander, Oswalt, T. Hudson, Lee, Latos, Kershaw, Liriano, Haren, Lincecum, Hanson, Scherzer, Cueto, Romero, Marcum, A. Sanchez, Burnett, Pelfrey, Hunter, Bumgarner, Kennedy, Niemann, Westbrook, LeBlanc, Chacin, Zimmermann, F. Garcia, Volstad, Figueroa, Arrieta, Karstens, Carrasco, O’Sullivan, Monasterios, Coleman.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 21 pitchers and how they fared.

Dickey – Advised to start. W, 10 Ks, 3.86 ERA, 1.286 WHIP (2 starts)
Hammel – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 3.86 ERA, 1.629 WHIP (2)
Kuroda – Advised to sit. W, 6 Ks, 5.14 ERA, 1.000 WHIP (2)
Lewis – Advised to start. 9 Ks, 6.00 ERA, 1.500 WHIP (2)
Richard – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 1.32 ERA, 0.951 WHIP (2)