Archive for Tommy Hanson

There are all kinds of little injury-related news that I’d like to get to, and today feels like a good day to do just that:

– While Tommy Hanson may say his shoulder is fine, a mere nine-pitch bullpen session begs to differ. Sure, he can say that he intended to throw a short session all along, but nine pitches just feels really abrupt. Also, wouldn’t you at least throw ten instead of stopping at nine? Color me skeptical, but Hanson is still on pace to get a rehab start in this weekend. As a Hanson owner, let’s hope this latest respite heals him up enough to finish the season strong.

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– Granted he’s only had a handful of plate appearances in the bigs, but Trayvon Robinson does not look MLB ready to me. He’s been swinging quite a bit, often at bad pitches, and he has also been rolling over on balls. I was surprised to see him swinging so freely due to his high minor league walk rates, and it’s entirely possible that he’s just pressing right now in an effort to make an impression in his debut. Still, unless he becomes more patient and aware of what pitchers are throwing, he’s going to need another half-season in the high minors.

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There’s a possibility that Tommy Hanson will be both over- and under-rated this year. There’s strong reasoning on both sides, but perhaps a recent tidbit of news can tip the scales in one direction.

Tommy Hanson is over-rated.
Though he’s now shown strong ERAs over the last two years, his xFIP has remained above four. He only gets ground balls at a league-average rate (41.2% career, 40% is about average), and yet somehow he has kept his home run rate below one per nine (.65 career HR/9).

This isn’t sustainable given the state of research on the subject, and is most likely an artifact of his home park. Except that he’s given up more home runs at home (.71 HR/9) than on the road (.59 HR/9). Still, he doesn’t show Matt Cain’s insane ability to rack up infield flies, and his deflated home run rate is almost all due to a tiny HR/FB rate (6.2% career). That number is closer to 10% across baseball, and he’s likely to give up more home runs in the future.

And, with a strikeout rate that is mostly meh (7.87 K/9), those home runs will hurt.

Tommy Hanson is underrated.
It’s funny that you should mention that strikeout rate, actually. Recent work at Beyond the Box Score showed that his strikeout rates fell late last year (5.17 and 5.84 K/9 in August and September, respectively, down from above one per inning across the rest of the year) – and then linked the fall in strikeout rates to his declining velocity. Though Mr. Apostoleris has some excellent graphs of his own, we can see that the FanGraphs’ pitch f/x charts show that Hanson has had this problem both years.

So, like many young pitchers before him, Hanson has had some issues with stamina in his short career to date. RotoWorld (quoting the Atlanta Journal and Constitution) provides us with a nugget of hope in this regard:

Tommy Hanson-S-Braves Feb. 1 – 9:33 am et
Tommy Hanson gained 10 pounds of muscle this offseason.
Hanson worked out at the Boras Sports Training Institute all winter with a team of trainers. “I felt like I did everything possible to get ready for the season,” he said Monday. “That gives me maybe a mental edge.” The 24-year-old finished with a cool 3.33 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 34 starts last season for the Braves. He struck out 173 batters in 202 2/3 innings.
Source: Atlanta Journal-Constitution

It’s bordering on a “Best Shape of His Life” update, but this one has concrete information. He gained 10 pounds of muscle, and perhaps that will help him retain velocity deep into the season. More velocity means more whiffs, which will allow him to mitigate the damage any added home runs might put on his ledger.

Conclusion.
Both the fans and Bil James project Hanson to improve his strikeout rate (8.51 K/9 for James, 8.42 for the fans) while putting up the worst home run rate of his career (.74 and .75 HR/9 respectively). Because his control is solid (2.78 BB/9 career), he will surely be a good pitcher next year.

In order for Hanson to be truly elite, though, he’ll have to show a strikeout rate closer to his minor league rate (10.7 K/9 carer MiLB), or at least over one per inning. Call me an optimist, but beefing up in order to maintain his early-season strikeout rates late into the summer seems like a good way to start. Call him “well-rated but with upside” if you need a moniker.

Earlier today, in Part I of the series, I published a chart of 38 pitchers who had a difference of 0.50 or greater between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break and their 2nd half ERAs. Here I want to go into more detail rather than just giving a raw score for the two metrics.

In rating the two systems, I considered the metrics to recommend keeping a pitcher if at the All-Star break they were at 3.50 or lower, to listen to a trade if they were between 3.51 and 4.00, to actively look to sell the player if they were between 4.01 and 4.50 and to either sell or cut a pitcher if they were above 4.51.

Of course, we also have to consider what the pitcher’s actual ERA was at the break, too. A pitcher could still be a sell candidate if one of the metrics was significantly higher than his ERA. For these extreme cases, I considered a difference between 50-75 points to be a “listen” candidate, while above 75 to be a “sell high” guy.

Felipe Paulino – pitched in just 5.2 innings after the break. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to a lack of playing time.

Francisco Liriano – His second half ERA was better than his first half mark, but both metrics thought he was outstanding before the All-Star break. This is a clear win for xFIP.

Anibal Sanchez – His 2nd half ERA (3.44) was a near-perfect match for his first half FIP (3.46).

Clay Buchholz – Both systems thought Buchholz was not nearly as good as he was in the first half. FIP had his as a keep while xFIP said he was an active sell. Since Buchholz did even better in the second half of the season than the first, this was a clear victory for FIP.

Josh Johnson – Both systems had Johnson as a keeper, but xFIP did a better job predicting his 3.50 post All-Star break mark.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – After allowing 4 HR in 71 IP in the first half, Matsuzaka served up 9 HR in 82.2 IP after the break. Big win for xFIP.

Johan Santana – His 3.00 ERA in the second half almost identical to his first half mark of 2.98. xFIP had Santana as a cut, so an easy win for FIP.

Jason Vargas – Eight of his 14 starts after the break came on the road and he allowed eight of his 10 second half HR away from Safeco. Big win for xFIP.

Justin Verlander – In the last three years, Verlander has posted an ERA over 5.50 in the month of April. He was terrific from May 1st through the end of the season again in 2010. Easy win for FIP.

Barry Zito – A lousy second half of the season made Zito a spectator for the Giants in the post-season. xFIP did an outstanding job predicting Zito’s collapse.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Just like with Zito, xFIP was just about perfect predicting Jimenez in the second half.

Tom Gorzelanny – Both systems saw Gorzelanny as a pretty good pitcher, but xFIP came closer to his second-half collapse.

John Danks – Again, the crystal ball for xFIP was right on target for Danks.

Tommy Hanson – In both seasons in the majors, Hanson has outperformed his xFIP. He turned it up a notch in the second half of 2010, thanks as much to his .233 BABIP as his 7 HR in 100.1 IP.

Matt Cain – Another pitcher with a history of outperforming his peripherals, Cain beat his FIP by nearly a run and his xFIP by nearly two runs in the second half of 2010.

Clayton Kershaw – Just as good in the second half of the season as he was in the first.

Cliff Lee – Many people wanted to eliminate Lee from this study last year, as he went from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park. But Lee outpitched his xFIP after the break in 2009. No such luck for Lee this year while following a similar story line of moving to a tougher park for pitchers.

C.J. Wilson – Like Kershaw, he was remarkable consistent between halves and ended up as a win for FIP.

Livan Hernandez – Those of us who kept predicting the bottom to fall out for Hernandez in 2010 are still waiting. Meanwhile, his second half ERA of 4.02 was a perfect match for his first half FIP.

Doug Fister – I imagine even the staunchest FIP supporters were shopping Fister every chance they could.

Fausto Carmona – After back-to-back seasons with a BB/9 over 5.00, Carmona allowed just 29 BB in 94.0 IP after the break last year. That had more to do with it than HR rate (10 HR in 94 IP) for why FIP was a clear winner.

Gavin Floyd – Fantasy owners did not know start from start what to expect from Floyd, but xFIP did a nice job of predicting his second half ERA.

Mark Buehrle – Like Wilson and Kershaw, Buehrle was a model of consistency with his ERA between halves this year. However, I worry about his K/9 rate and would be shocked if he was on any of my teams next year.

Brandon Morrow – With the Blue Jays out of the race, they decided to shut down a healthy Morrow after his first September start, which limited him to 46.1 IP after the break. A polar opposite to Buehrle, Morrow posted a 10.95 K/9, up from 8.14 a season ago.

Johnny Cueto – Cueto’s second half ERA was in the range predicted by his first half FIP and xFIP. But it was just 0.05 away from his FIP.

John Lackey – His second half ERA of 3.97 was a nice match for his 3.89 career mark but I doubt that makes too many Red Sox fans happy about his season and the team’s remaining obligation to him.

Kevin Correia – The first player on our list to have a big discrepancy between his FIP and xFIP due to a high HR rate, Correia did not show much regression in the second half of the year. Those who thought he would rebound, especially considering his home park, were disappointed. Correia allowed 13 HR in 82.1 IP in Petco this year.

Cole Hamels – Just like in 2009, one pitcher from the high HR rate side completely turned things around to become one of the best pitchers in the second half. Hopefully, Hamels has more luck in 2011 than 2009’s entry did. Rich Harden had a 5.58 ERA in 20 games with the Rangers this year after having a tremendous post-break performance (2.55 ERA) in 2009.

Nick Blackburn – Both systems would have advised cutting Blackburn, who responded with a 3.94 ERA in the second half, as he showed a big across-the-board improvement, including a microscopic 1.83 BB/9.

Kevin Millwood – Most of the players with a high HR/FB rate come back as not worth the risk by both systems. But xFIP said Millwood was significantly better than he showed in the first half and did an excellent job projecting his post-break ERA.

Jeff Karstens – An sore shoulder led to just one appearance in September. I regret the pain suffered by Mr. Karstens but it’s probably just as well that it played out that way.

Zach Duke – Hard to believe he made the All-Star team in 2009. Since then he is 11-23 with a 5.52 ERA.

James Shields – Both systems predicted a big bounce-back performance in the second half by Shields but that never materialized. He continued to give up HR by the basket, saw his K/BB ratio drop by over a full point and saw his BABIP increase to .362 after the break.

Brian Bannister – Limited to 25.2 IP in the second half due to rotator cuff tendinitis.

Randy Wolf – Both systems saw Wolf as waiver wire fodder but he had a 2.67 ERA in his final 13 starts, which was right after I placed him on waivers in a dynasty league.

Doug Davis – Elbow tendinitis kept Davis from pitching after the All-Star break.

Ricky Nolasco – FIP was nearly perfect with its Nolasco forecast, a marked departure in recent history, as he has generally underperformed his peripherals the past two seasons. Of course, Nolasco pitched just 47 innings after the break due to knee surgery.

Ian Kennedy – Neither system thought much of Kennedy going into the break but xFIP had a brighter outlook. Meanwhile, Kennedy put it altogether after the All-Star game, with Quality Starts in seven of his last nine outings. He finally started pitching well in his home park. In his last three games in Chase Field, Kennedy allowed 4 ER (0 HR) in 19 IP.

*****

When I started this comparison in 2009, my belief was that you would be just as well off using either system. After last year, there was a definite raw advantage for xFIP but now with two years worth of data, the two systems are basically even. Overall, there have been 72 pitchers who’ve had a 0.50 or greater difference between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break. Here’s how they did if you used their first half FIP or xFIP to project their second half ERA:

xFIP – 37
FIP – 34
Push – 1

Both systems have strengths and weaknesses. Generally speaking, xFIP does a better job with non-elite pitchers with low HR rates while FIP does a better job with elite hurlers. So, if a Tom Gorzelanny is cruising along with a sub-7.0 HR/FB rate, it appears you should look to sell high. But if it’s Justin Verlander, perhaps you should hold onto him.

We know that over the long haul that xFIP is the better metric to use for most pitchers. The issue here is that for one season (or one partial season) there may not be enough time for regression to fully kick in. Let’s look at Tim Lincecum. In the first half of 2009, he had a 3.9 HR/FB rate. In the second half of the season he had a 7.5 HR/9. This year he had a 9.9 HR/FB ratio. He has been regressing towards a normal HR/FB rate since the first half of 2009. But it did not all come in the same season.

Readers have suggested using first half ERA, or a mid-point between first half FIP and xFIP or an average of all three to see which one best predicted second half ERA. I think these are worthwhile suggestions and perhaps ones that we can use in the future (going back retroactively, too) as our sample size increases. We can also eliminate pitchers who did not pitch substantial innings and look for other trends and anomalies as our population gets bigger.

This started with a claim by my friend and colleague Derek Carty that FIP was basically useless for fantasy purposes with other metrics like xFIP available. Right now it appears FIP is making a case not to be tossed into the trash can by fantasy players.

In 2009, I did a column at the All-Star break to see if FIP or xFIP would be more helpful for fantasy players in making trades. This year I did the same thing. You can see the results below

Should Fantasy Owners Use FIP?
FIP Challenge Results Part I
FIP Challenge Results Part II
FIP Challenge 2010

Here is the table from the 2010 article, along with an additional column, the pitcher’s ERA in the second half of the season.

There are 38 pitchers in the above chart. On a raw scale, the two systems were almost identical, with the FIP metric did a better job of predicting 2nd half ERA in 20 cases while xFIP did better 17 times. Furthermore, FIP did a better job of forecasting 14 of the 26 players with low HR/FB rates and both systems got five of the 11 pitchers (Davis being a wash) with high HR/FB rates.

In 2009, xFIP did better on a raw scale, as it did a better job predicting 20 of the 34 pitchers in the sample.

Similar to 2009, most of the pitchers fell outside the range predicted by FIP and xFIP. For example, Liriano’s FIP was 2.18 while his xFIP was 2.97. But he had a 3.31 second half ERA. Only seven of the 37 players listed above had a second half ERA between their first half FIP and xFIP. The two systems were close on this, too, with FIP being better on four of these seven pitchers. In 2009, 28 of the 34 pitchers had second half ERAs outside the range of their first half FIP and xFIP numbers.

Later today I will post a breakdown of all 38 pitchers in this survey.

Reader G. Azama submitted this question to me directly, but it’s a mailbag question nonetheless:

I’m in a 14 Team mixed keeper league. We get to keep any 7 players and as far as I know, there’s no limitation on how many years we get to keep the players.

Positions are C,C,1B,2B,3B,SS,CI,MI, 5 OF, bunch of pitchers and long bench.

Stats are the basic 5×5 plus OPS and Holds. Because of the holds, Closers are hard to come by, in fact very hard to come by if you don’t draft them.

I had a pretty good team and got nip at the end and came in second. My potential keepers are Chase Utley, Tim Lincecum, Joey Votto, Kung-Fu Panda, Kendry Morales, Jonathan Broxton, Andre Ethier, Tommy Hanson, Cole Hamels.

Straight up keepers. Draft position from last year is not a factor.the draft will be done in the reverse order of the finish in every round. In other words, I will be drafting thirteenth on every round, since I came in second last year.

I’ve been banging my head against the wall trying to figure out what makes sense. As you can see I’ve got quite a few good young players! Hard decision. I think the top 4 are keepers for sure. It’s after that that I have a hard time deciding.

I completely agree that Timmy, Utley, Votto and Pablo Sandoval are instant keepers in this case. I also think that you need to keep Broxton to at least have one closer on your roster. That leaves us with Kendry, Ethier, Hanson and Hamels to fill two spots.

Kendry provided owners with more power than they could have ever hoped for, with a fantastic average to boot. For the most part, his 34 homers came out of no where, but he did have a brief history of power in Triple-A during the 2008 season, hitting 15 homers in 340 plate appearances. However, a .335 BABIP is likely to drop bringing his average down below the .300 mark. Also, Kendry doesn’t draw many walks so his value drops in OBP leagues, but an OPS league keeps his value high.

Ethier’s power last year was also a pleasant surprise, but his .272 average was a disappointment. He isn’t likely to hit 31 homers again, but 25 homers is not out of the question. Unlike Kendry, Ethier draws a walk and can keep his OPS high even when he is in a “slump”. His average should rise back to around .285, and a solid lineup around him means good production all around.

David Golebiewski already did quite the workup on Hanson in December, so I’m not going to step on his work and repeat what he said. Cole Hamels had a career year in 2008, and then posted career worst fantasy numbers in 2009. However, his FIP was exactly the same in both years, coming in at 3.72. Will the real Cole Hamels please stand up? 2010 is likely to be an average of 2008 and 2009, with his ERA coming in around 3.70 with good wins, strikeouts and WHIP.

I really like Kendry, but with Votto and Kung-Fu Panda already on the roster he is expendable. In a league with five outfielders, I’m keeping Either, that much I’m sure about. Now we are down to Hanson and Hamels for one last spot. Because there is no limit on how long you can keep players, I’m keeping Hanson.

To recap, I’m keeping Timmy, Utley, Votto, Panda, Broxton, Ethier and Hanson.

Have a question for the mailbag? Send it to rotographs+mailbag@fangraphs.com.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, third basemen, right fielders, left fielders and center fielders.)

Of course, when it comes to pitchers, the format suffers. We’re not about to do tiered rankings for the top 75+ pitchers that get drafted every year in mixed leagues – that would be one long post. Instead, we’re doing starters by tiers. Tier one, otherwise known as SP1, was last week. SP2 is below.

Imagine if, on offense, you were just able to pick whomever regardless of position? Or, more correctly, what if there were only two positions on offense in fantasy baseball? Infield and Outfield? That’s what it’s like on the pitching side. So, not surprisingly, the second tier of fantasy starting pitchers looks pretty nice. (It’s also reason #36,978 to draft pitching later!)

All of the hurlers in the first tier could easily end up as fantasy aces next year. Matt Cain and Javier Vazquez were probably even SP1s last year… we just doubt their ability to repeat those seasons. Jake Peavy got a demotion from the first set of pitchers because of his health and move to the stronger league. Yovani Gallardo and Tommy Hanson are young, exciting, and ascendant: pick one of them as your SP1 and follow it up with a possible bounce-back veteran like Cole Hamels, and your likelihood of having two fantasy aces is high.

The next tier just has more question marks. Clayton Kershaw has some awesome pitches, and an equally terrible walk rate to go with them. Jair Jurrjens just had too many stranded runners and too many bouncing balls go his way to trust him to be anywhere as good as he was last year. Wandy Rodriguez has now sustained his excellence two years in a row – but his fastball barely cracks 90 miles per hour, and throwing all those curveballs (almost 40%) has to catch up with you some day, maybe. John Lackey brings multiple question marks (rising walk rate, dropping strikeout rate and innings totals) with him into a new stadium. Chad Billingsley looks like he got a little unlucky last year and may return to grace, but given his walk rate, his WHIP may never be elite.

The final tier includes some semi-controversial pitchers, since we all seem to love Brett Anderson more than his major league numbers perhaps bear out. It could be because of his unique stuff, as Dave Allen showed us a while back in a great post. Then we have numbers that seem to suggest that Ricky Nolasco was very unlucky last year and should be in line for a good season as the luck pendulum swings back for him. We also see two former aces that have ridden injuries to the bottom of the SP2s in Roy Oswalt and Brandon Webb. Webb’s injury is a bigger deal because it was in his shoulder, but Oswalt is a slight guy with declining innings totals that has talked of an early retirement.

And then we have the two toughest names to place on this list. James Shields never had plus strikeout rates, and with the walk rate and WHIP rising slowly, you have to wonder if he’ll just always be a high-3s ERA guy that won’t get you much more than 160 Ks. Joining him is fellow low-WHIP meister Scott Baker. Both pitchers actually have okay strikeout rates, good walk rates, poor home run rates, and high-3s FIPs. Their low WHIP makes them attractive, and they are good pitchers. But who do you move off the list to get them on?

The 2009 Atlanta Braves boasted one of the best starting rotations in the majors. Collectively, Atlanta starters ranked second in the NL in FIP and xFIP, with the fourth-highest strikeout-to-walk ratio in the Senior Circuit. Javier Vazquez had a career year. Jair Jurrjens pitched well, if not as well as his microscopic ERA suggests. Kenshin Kawakami and Derek Lowe were serviceable, and Tim Hudson made a strong last-season return.

A rookie did his best to steal the show, however. Tommy Hanson has laid waste to pro hitters since the Braves inked the 6-6 righty as a 2005 draft-and-follow selection.

Following a stint at Riverside Community College, Hanson signed on the dotted line for a $325,000 bonus. He made his pro debut with Danville in Rookie Ball in 2006, where he posted rates of 9.8 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 in 51.2 innings.

In 2007, Hanson dominated hitters with 10.4 punch outs per nine innings in 133 IP between the Low-A South Atlantic League and the High-A Carolina League (his FIP was 4.14). His control left something to be desired (3.9 BB/9) . But as a 20 year-old with wicked stuff, Hanson moved up prospect lists. Baseball America ranked the big righty as the 9th-best talent in Atlanta’s farm system, praising his “nasty overhand curveball with tight spin and 12-to-6-break.”

Hanson went from a sleeper prospect to a household name in 2008, wiping the floor with batters between the Carolina League and the AA Southern League. In 138 frames, Hanson whiffed a combined 10.6 batters, with 3.4 BB/9. His FIP dropped nearly a run, to 3.18. As if that weren’t enough, he then took no prisoners in the hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League (49 K in 29 innings, with a 0.63 ERA). Hanson topped Atlanta’s prospect list entering 2009, with BA noting that the Braves viewed him as a “future ace.”

Opening the ’09 season at AAA Gwinnett, Hanson outclassed International League batters. In 66.1 IP, he struck out 12.2 hitters per nine innings, with just 2.3 BB/9 (2.42 FIP). He forced his way to the majors, getting the call-up in early June.

Hanson made 21 starts for the Braves, compiling a 2.89 ERA in 127.2 innings. He whiffed 8.18 per nine frames, while issuing 3.24 free passes per nine innings. Hanson’s xFIP (4.03) was higher than his ERA, as his home run per fly ball rate (6.9 percent) was well below the typical 10-12% range for pitchers. A fly ball pitcher (40.2 GB% in the majors in ’09, career 39.1 GB% in the minors), Hanson will likely cough up a few more homers next season.

Even so, Atlanta’s prized prospect was extremely impressive. Few pitchers consistently got ahead in the count like Hanson: his 63.4 first-pitch strike percentage placed 10th among starters tossing 120+ innings (the MLB average is around 58 percent). Hanson’s 77.2 percent contact rate wasn’t elite (80.5% MLB average), but it was comfortably above average. His 9.9 swinging strike percentage was excellent, though, placing 24th among starting pitchers (7.8% average for starters).

Coming up through the minors, Hanson was best known for a plus curveball and slider. He wasn’t bashful about breaking out the breaking stuff in the majors. Hanson threw his 92 MPH fastball about 58% of the time, with positive results (+0.28 runs per 100 pitches).

His 83 MPH slider (thrown 24 percent) and 75 MPH curveball (14 percent), however, paralyzed opposing batters. That slider was worth +1.79 runs per 100 tosses, and his curve was even more deadly (+2.36). Hanson didn’t use his 83 MPH changeup much, throwing it just 4 percent with little success (-1.85).

Using data from Joe Lefkowitz’s Pitch F/X Tool, we can get a better read on how Hanson gets the job done:

(Quick note about the MLB averages: Lefkowitz’s tool uses Microsoft Excel, and currently it only downloads a maximum of 5,000 pitches. So, the MLB averages aren’t based on ALL pitches thrown by righties. But this gives us a decent sample size.)

He does a great job of pounding the strike zone with his heater. The rates on the curveball and slider are fantastic: Hanson’s whiff percentage with his breaking stuff is through the roof, and he can locate those pitches to boot. The changeup, obviously, remains a work in progress.

Tommy shut down right-handers in 2009 (56 sOPS+, meaning he was 44 percent better than average against righties). He didn’t exactly struggle with southpaws (92 sOPS+, eight percent better than average). We’re splitting hairs here, but Hanson did occasionally lose the zone against opposite-handed batters:

Vs. RHB
Hanson’s Strikeout/PA%:27.1
NL Avg. for RHP vs. RHB: 18.9
Hanson’s Walks/PA%: 5.3
NL Avg. for RHP vs. RHB: 7.4

Vs. LHB
Hanson’s Strikeout/PA%: 22.7
NL Avg. for RHP vs. LHB: 17.4
Hanson’s Walks/PA%: 11.9
NL Avg. for RHB vs. LHB: 10.5

(Data courtesy of Baseball-Reference)

Tommy Hanson just turned 23 in late August, yet he’s remarkably polished for his age. He’s not afraid to hammer the strike zone with his fastball, slider or curveball, and those breaking pitches generate a dizzying number of swings and misses. Few pitchers, regardless of age, possess Hanson’s combination of power and command. Don’t hesitate to drop a high draft pick on Hanson in 2010.

Three day games have already gotten underway and there are seven more contests on deck. Let’s get to some fantasy links as the season marches on…

Dustin Hockensmith of Imaginary Diamond lists 10 young players who could prove to be fantasy sleepers in 2010. As Hockensmith notes, “Some of these guys — Andrew McCutchen, Tommy Hanson, Neftali Feliz and Rick Porcello — are making an impact right now.”

The boys over at Fake Teams work through a discussion-inducing question: “Who would you rather have, Justin Upton or Matt Kemp?” Both have shot up in fantasy value this season and will be taken among the top tier of outfielders in drafts next season.

Not ready to begin thinking about 2010? Fantasy Baseball Junkie has you covered with a look at “vulture win opportunities” for the month of September. The blog post suggests adding guys like Jamie Moyer and Alfredo Aceves, who leach off starters like Pedro Martinez and Joba Chamberlain, respectively, for wins. The strategy may come off as odd, but it does make some sense.

With Chad Qualls, Mariano Rivera and Huston Street hitting the bench recently with injuries, there are an awful lot of saves up for grabs. Knox Bardeen of AOL Fanhouse runs us around some of those situations.

Troy Patterson of Roto Savants previews Buster Posey’s September fantasy value. For those who didn’t catch the news, the elite prospect was called up to the majors on Wednesday to aid the Giants in their push toward the playoffs. Bengie Molina is hurting and reportedly disgruntled, so there may be some playing time available.

Rotoworld’s Matt Stroup spins us around the league with a group of recommended waiver adds. Brian Joura handles that duty wonderfully for RotoGraphs, but it’s always nice to have multiple perspectives.

Have a link, comment, question or fantasy blog you think I should be reading? Send me an e-mail and tell me about it. Or find me on Twitter.

Stock Up

Tommy Hanson, Braves

A product of the now-defunct draft-and-follow process (he was a 22nd-round pick in the 2005 draft), Hanson garnered plenty of headlines during his ascent to Atlanta. The 6-6 righty laid waste to AAA to start the 2009 season (66.1 IP, 12.21 K/9, 2.31 BB/9), and he has made a very strong first impression as the Braves look to stay in the playoff race.

Hanson has punched out 6.72 per nine frames in the majors, with 3.54 BB/9 and a 4.14 FIP in 73.2 IP. The soon-to-be 23 year-old has all the pitches: a 93 MPH fastball, 83 MPH slider, 75 MPH curve and an 83 MPH change of pace. Hanson is getting ahead of hitters pretty well (his 63.4 First-Pitch Strike% is over 4 percentage points above the MLB average), and his breaking pitches in particular look nasty.

Tommy’s slider has 3.7 inches of horizontal movement away from righties (the MLB avg. is 2.4), while his curve breaks downward slightly more than the average breaker (5.8 inches, 5.3 average), with 1.1 inches more horizontal break (6.4) than the average yellow hammer (5.3). Here’s Hanson’s movement chart from his August 11th start versus Washington:

Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies

The 23 year-old Venezuelan (formerly of Arizona and Oakland) seems to have garnered the “busted prospect” label, based largely upon his anemic work with the A’s in 2008 (.278 wOBA in 316 PA, with an untenable 4.1 BB% and 26.8 K%). It’s never wise to write off such a young player, however; it’s not as though his skill set will just automatically remain stagnant.

Shipped to Colorado in the off-season, Gonzalez pasted the Pacific Coast League for a .339/.418/.630 line in 223 PA in ’09. AAA Colorado Springs is certainly a favorable offensive environment (inflating offensive production by nine percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2006-2008), but CarGo did a better job of working the count with a 10.3% walk rate, whiffing 16.7% of the time.

Gonzalez is getting fairly regular playing time for the Rockies right now, and he has a .285/.341/.517 triple-slash in 170 PA. Coors caveats apply, but Carlos still has +3.5 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs on the season. He hasn’t transformed into some model of plate discipline (31.8 Outside-Swing%, 25% MLB average), but Gonzalez has taken ball four 8.5% of the time. He has also chipped in 8 steals in 9 attempts.

Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs

A Japanese star inked to a four-year, $48M deal prior to the 2008 season, Fukudome posted a .328 wOBA in his “rookie” season that was considered a big disappointment. It’s not like he was a bad player, though, walking nearly 14% of the time while playing plus defense in an outfield corner. A brutal second half (.217/.314/.326) fueled the perception that Fukudome was nothing more than a fourth outfielder, but there really wasn’t all that much changed in Kosuke’s core skills when compared to his scorching first half (.279/.383/.408). Some decline? Yes, but nothing that explains a near-90 percentage point dip in BABIP:

Fukudomania! (1st half): 14.2 BB%, 18.1 K%, .129 ISO, .335 BABIP
BOOO! (2nd half): 12.8 BB%, 16.7 K%, .109 ISO, .248 BABIP

In 2009, Fukudome has boosted his lumber production with a .369 wOBA. He’s drawing a walk 16% of the time, with a .191 ISO to boot. Kosuke has compiled 3 Wins Above Replacement already. He basically looks like the scouting reports suggested: great eye, doubles power with the occasional dinger, with a enough range to play a passable center field.

Neftali Feliz, Rangers

When the Rangers acquired a bounty of young talent from the Braves in the July 2007 Mark Teixeira blockbuster, Feliz was a hard-throwing string bean with less than 75 professional innings under his belt. Two years later, Feliz is just plain overmatching major league batters out of the ‘pen.

His repertoire in short stints has been sick: a 98 MPH fastball, an 81 MPH power curve and an 89 MPH changeup. A lot of guys throw hard, but few possess Feliz’s combination of velocity and movement: his fastball tails in on the hands of righty batters 7.4 inches (6 inch MLB avg), with 11.2 inches of horizontal break (8.6 avg.) He essentially throws his heater with 4-seam velocity and vertical movement, with the running action of a two-seamer.

In 8.2 IP, Neftali has whiffed 16 batters, without allowing a walk. His long-term future lies in the rotation, but he could conjure up memories of K-Rod’s 2002 dominance in the meantime.

Jonny Gomes, Reds

The former Rays slugger is anathema to all things leather (career -19.9 UZR/150 in the outfield), but the born DH has slammed NL pitching for 15 home runs and a .277/.357/.584 line in 196 plate appearances for the Reds. Gomes likely won’t continue to homer at a Pujols-like pace, but even a performance in line with his career .240/.332/.470 triple-slash would be of use to fantasy owners. He can slug with the best of them, and he’s in a ballpark that certainly digs the long ball.

Stock Down

David Wright, Mets

Mets fans must be balled up in the fetal position by this point, no? The club entered the season with a strong shot of competing in the NL East on the basis of the Santana/Reyes/Wright/Beltran quartet of stars. Only Santana remains on the field now, as Wright took a 94 MPH Matt Cain fastball off the helmet in Saturday’s contest against the Giants.

The third baseman was having a productive, if atypical season at the plate in 2009. His .387 wOBA doesn’t look all the different, but Wright’s ISO dipped from around .220 from 2004-2008 to just .143 in 2009. He punched out a career-high 24.6% of the time, yet hit .324 on the basis of a ridiculous .415 BABIP.

The focus now, though, shifts to Wright’s long-term health. There’s a better chance of sudden peace in the Middle East than the Mets making the playoffs (Baseball Prospectus has New York’s odds at 0.15%; “so you’re telling me there’s a chance…Yeah!”) Wright didn’t “get his bell rung”, and he wasn’t “shook up”. He suffered a brain injury. There’s no incentive for the team to rush him back.

Johnny Cueto, Reds

Cueto has gotten throttled since the calendar turned to July. The 23 year-old Dominican gave up a .587 opponent slugging percentage that month, has been battered to the tune of a .644 SLG% in August. He cramped up during his August 11th start vs. St. Louis after two innings, then got drubbed for 8 H and 7 R in just 2.2 IP against the Nationals on the 15th.

Johnny has made some progress in terms of limiting free passes (3.03 BB/9, compared to 3.52 in ’08), but the homer problems persist. Cueto’s HR/FB% isn’t out of whack (11.2%), but the flyball-slanted righty has allowed 1.32 HR/9 this season after serving up 1.5 per nine in 2008. Reds skipper Dusty Baker has indicated that Cueto will have his next start skipped.

Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals

Not that long ago, I asked if Zimmermann might just be the best of 2009’s crop of rookie starters. Unfortunately, that argument is now moot. The 23 year-old righty will be out anywhere from 12-18 months following Tommy John surgery. It’s a highly disappointing development for Nationals fans, who had visions of a Strasburg/Zimmermann 1-2 duo leading the club out of the depths of the NL East standings.

Garrett Jones, Pirates

A 28 year-old minor league vet with a career .265/.321/.463 line in nearly 2,500 PA at the AAA level, Jones went all Shane Spencer on the NL in July (1.061 OPS, 10 HR). August has seen Mr. Jones hit a more reasonable .259/.333/.444, and even that is above what one would expect based on the big lefty batter’s minor league numbers. Per Minor League Splits, Jones’ work at AAA Indianapolis to begin to 2009 season translated to a .259/.291/.408 line at the highest level. His 2006-2008 translations are similarly bleak.

Performances at the extremes tend to skew the perception of a player. Jones’ incredible start likely had some running to the waiver wire to claim him, but his much larger body of work suggests that he’s more major league filler than some breakout performer.

Lastings Milledge, Pirates

Milledge has a clean slate in Pittsburgh, getting another opportunity to make good on the promise that made him a top prospect in the Mets system and a sought-after trade target of the Nationals. Thus far, it’s not working out very well. The 24 year-old has expanded his zone in the majors, walking just 6.6% of the time and swinging at nearly 32% of pitches off the plate), and he is hitting just .213/.259/.250 in 86 PA in 2009. Lastings’ walk rate under five percent. He’ll continue to get regular AB’s with the Pirates as they seek to rehabilitate his deteriorated plate approach, but it would be nice to see some sort of progress here.