Archive for todd helton

When it comes to the Colorado Rockies, the standard practice in fantasy baseball is to draft the hitters and avoid the pitchers. And it is as true today as it was back in 1993 when the organization played its very first game as an MLB franchise. We’ve already covered the team’s outfield and rotation, so it’s time to discuss the infield now. For the most part, you’ll want to give it a look when mapping out your draft strategy, however, it might not be the offensive powerhouse you were hoping for. Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s face it, the waiver wire is looking pretty bleak these days.  Obviously if you’re in a real shallow league of eight to ten teams, there are always guys worthy of picking up even for just a week or so.  But the deeper your league gets the worse it looks out there and as writers trying to suggest a worthwhile pick-up, it can often be difficult.  So now that I threw that caveat out there, here are two guys that probably aren’t bad enough that they could contribute as a possible fill-in for you while your guy maybe nurses a sore hamstring or is mired in some sort of multi-week slump. Read the rest of this entry »

One of the biggest criticisms of saber-enthusiasts is their tendency to ignore the human element of the game.  Their breakdown and analysis of the game is all about the numbers, statistical trends, replacement values, etc.  These aren’t robots here on the field playing the game, yet often during a study of it, they are, in a way, treated as such.  And for me, I have to agree with the critics.  You simply can’t ignore the human element.  It must be accounted for in some way.  Why?  Because humans are inherently stupid and common sense is the least common thing in this world. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re a third of the through the season, so I’d like to take a look at which players have provided the best production relative to their auction cost in ottoneu leagues…and by extension, probably much of fantasy baseball.  While this is specific to ottoneu, I think this will apply to most of fantasy baseball.

We’ll start today with catchers and corner infielders.  I’ll give you the top three values at that position, plus my pick for the player of those three that is least likely to regress (or, perhaps, the player likely to regress the least).   Avg. Cost is just their current average cost in ottoneu, whereas the “Performed As” number is essentially an measure of what the dollar value would be for performance at this level for an entire season (using the lwts-based FanGraphs Points system; methods description at the bottom).  Expect this to change by season’s end: these guys are all overperforming, and are all good bets to regress to some degree.

Catcher

My Pick: Ramon Hernandez Read the rest of this entry »

In today’s edition of the Waiver Wire, we look at three players who have all been around awhile.

Read the rest of this entry »

A post holiday hangover edition of “Corner Infielders.”

Lyle Overbay | Blue Jays | 7% Owned
Overbay has been consistently good during his career, and has been valued as an above-average hitter six out of the last seven years. In a contract year, Overbay has turned up the power and could set a new career high in home runs. While his batting average isn’t great (and this is his first year with a sub-20% LD%), he’s still a decent fantasy producer. Overbay is a better option in AL-only leagues, but you can get away with him playing in a deeper standard league.

Todd Helton | Rockies | 24% Owned
If you can believe it, this is Helton’s first full season with an OBP lower than .380. That kind of consistency is hard to find, but Helton is one of the few hitters who have been able to produce at that level. With a four home run month in August, Helton may be showing us that the power has not completely disappeared from his repertoire. While he’s not the stud he used to be, he’s still worthy of a roster spot if you’re looking for some upside (Todd Helton and upside? Let the ridicule commence).

Casey Blake | Dodgers | 39% Owned
Blake’s long been a late round favorite of mine, and those days may not be behind him. While his numbers are less than stellar this year, Blake is still a consistent producer who’s cost is minimal. If you’re in a bind, give Blake a shot at third base.

Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | 250% Owned
Just a friendly reminder that A-Rod returned from the DL on Sunday, so don’t forget to put him back into your lineup.

It’s a holiday weekend, and in the honor of National Lampoon and holiday/family misadventures everywhere, let’s lead this off with a song and a couple of players that might help fantasy owners on the run:

Trevor Hoffman, Milwaukee Brewers (37% owned)
Trolling for saves is no exact science. We’ve tried using strikeout rates, walk rates, leverage index, ‘thinking stupid,’ and even fingers in the wind to predict closers in the past. Put this post in the latter category. John Axford has done nothing wrong – well, not quite nothing, he does own a 4.50 walk rate that might make sustaining his current performance level difficult, especially if it starts to approach his higher walk rates of the past – but sometimes doing nothing wrong is not good enough. Even though he hasn’t blown a save yet, and is probably the future at the position for Milwaukee, there’s the little matter of the former closer behind him. Not only has Hoffman turned in eight straight innings with only one run surrendered, but he’s also only four saves short of 600. Milwaukee might turn to the Hoff to boost late-season attendance in his run at glory. Stranger things have happened, and Axford owners at the very least should pick up the legendary change-piecer.

Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies (5% owned)
Sometimes you just have to keep plucking that chicken. About a month ago, we recommended Fowler in this space, and he promptly sucked for a while and was sent down. Well, at least he raked… in AAA. In 124 plate appearances, he put up a .340/.435/.566 that showed his team that he had little to figure out in the minor leagues. He’s still a member of one of the more crowded houses in the league, as Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Carlos Gonzalez and Brad Hawpe are all are above-average hitters. Fowler is strong against lefties, though, and in a worst-case scenario, he’ll be a caddy for Smith against lefties. However, Todd Helton has lost all his power (.066 ISO) and is a terrible offensive first baseman right now. The team might best be served (even defensively) by putting Hawpe at first many days, which would open up more at-bats for Fowler. In any case, Fowler has been up and has been playing. He’s played in every game since he’s come back up, and was six for his last eight. Guess finally trying out AAA for the first time did him some good. With his five-tool upside, he’s worth a flier in deeper leagues for sure.

Jose Reyes, Mets

After missing the majority of the 2009 season with a hamstring injury and then being reduced to spectator status with a thyroid condition in early April of 2010, Reyes was understandably rusty at the plate. The switch-hitting speedster posted a .285 wOBA and a .088 Isolated Power in April, and slogged through a May in which he put up a .311 wOBA and a .112 ISO. But in June, Reyes has heated up — a .403 wOBA and a .220 ISO. His season line has climbed to .279/.323/.420, with a .335 wOBA. The 27-year-old has also swiped 19 bases in 21 attempts.

Reyes’ turnaround has been fueled by fewer swings on outside pitches, more contact and a sinking infield/fly ball rate:

ZiPS projects a .288/.348/.446 rest-of-season line, with a .359 wOBA. Those who gambled on Reyes over the winter (and held onto him after his rough start) are being handsomely rewarded.

Trevor Cahill, Athletics

Last season, Cahill was jumped to the big leagues as a 21-year-old with minimal experience above A-Ball. As such, he kicked and flailed to keep his head above water at the highest level. Cahill finished his rookie year with 4.53 K/9, 3.63 BB/9, a 47.8 GB% and a 4.92 xFIP. While no stud against same-handed hitters (4.53 xFIP), Oakland’s second-round pick in the 2006 draft was lashed by lefties for a 5.31 xFIP.

Given Cahill’s impressive minor league resume (including a career 9.9 K/9 and a 58.6 GB%) and prospect pedigree (Baseball America ranked him as the 11th-best prospect prior to ’09), he was expected to make considerable progress with more major league experience. And he’s on his way — in 2010, Cahill has whiffed 6.24 batters per nine innings, walked 2.88 per nine and has induced grounders 53.3%. His 4.02 xFIP (3.88 versus lefties) isn’t close to his pristine 2.88 ERA (he’s not gonna keep that .235 BABIP all season long), but Cahill is showing across-the-board improvement.

His swinging strike rate is 7.9%, up from 7.4% last season (8.3% MLB average). Cahill’s contact rate has decreased to 81.1% from 82.1% in ’09 (81% MLB average), and his outside swing percentage is comfortably above the big league average after coming in well below that level as a rookie. He got batters to chase off the plate just 21.6% last season (25.1% MLB average), but opponents have gone fishin’ 29.2% in 2010 (28.4% MLB average).

According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Cahill has marginally increased the whiff rate on his fastball (4.9% this season, compared to 4.6% in ’09 and the 6% MLB average). But his secondary stuff is fooling hitters more — Cahill’s getting whiffs 14% of the time that he spins a breaking ball, up from 7.3% last year and above the MLB average of about 13%. His changeup is getting a whiff 15.9% in 2010 after posting a 13.6% rate in ’09 (12.6% MLB average). Why is this guy still on the waiver wire in 60% of Yahoo leagues?

Todd Helton, Rockies

We chronicled Helton’s power outage last month, and things haven’t improved for the 36-year-old since then. He’s got a .250/.344/.318 triple-slash on the season, with a .068 ISO. That’s Jason Kendall/David Eckstein territory there. He has been bullied by fastballs — Helton hit heaters for a +0.99 runs/100 value from 2007-2009, but he’s down to -0.62 per 100 this season. Once you adjust for the Coors assist that Helton receives, his hitting has been 20 percent worse than the league average (80 wRC+). It’s no surprise, then, that the singles-hitting first baseman has been sub-replacement-level (-0.2 WAR).

Trying to figure out whether a player is “done” is often a fool’s errand — see David Ortiz — but Helton’s hitting with little authority, struggling to fend of fastballs and putting the ball in play more to left and center field, with ghastly results. At the very least, it’s not looking good.

Brad Bergesen, Orioles

The 24-year-old sinker/slider pitcher shouldn’t have been expected to replicate his 2009 season, as there was nearly a full run separating his ERA (3.43) and xFIP (4.42). Bergesen garnered a reputation in the minors for pounding the strike zone (1.6 BB/9 on the farm) and keeping the ball down (52.6 GB%), and he continued to limit free passes and fly ball balls in the majors (2.34 BB/9, 50.1 GB% with the O’s in ’09). However, Bergesen missed few bats in the minors (5.8 K/9) and whiffed just 4.74 per nine during his rookie year. His BABIP (.289), strand rate (75.2%) and home run per fly ball rate (8.3%) all figured to climb in 2010.

However, instead of regressing to a mid-four ERA-type pitcher, Bergesen has been the AL’s answer to John Lannan this season. In 58 innings, Bergesen has just 2.17 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, a 50.2 GB% and a 5.90 xFIP. That K rate is by far the lowest in the majors among pitchers tossing 50+ frames. His contact rates were high last season, but they’re untenable this year given just average control.

Bergesen is getting swinging strikes 3.4%, compared to 6.4% in ’09. His overall contact rate has spiked to 92.2% from last season’s 85.5%. On pitches within the strike zone, batters are connecting an astounding 97.7% (91.2% last year, 88% MLB average). That’s the highest rate of in-zone contact in the majors. Bergesen’s fastball didn’t get many whiffs last year (3.5%), but that figure is down to 2.4% this season. His slider (12.2% in ’09, 8.3% in ’10) and changeup (6.9% in ’09, 3.8% in ’10) are also getting fewer whiffs. With good control, ground ball tendencies and a mediocre K rate, Bergesen can be of use to the O’s. With OK control, ground ball proclivities and an abysmal K rate, he’s a batting practice pitcher.

Coors Field aside, Rockies first baseman Todd Helton has been an offensive force in his own right. Colorado’s first-round pick in the 1995 draft has a career 142 wRC+, meaning his park and league-adjusted weighted on-base average is 42 percent better than the league average. Possessing zen-like plate discipline and plus power, Helton has been a fixture in the Rockies’ lineup for 14 years.

A back injury sapped Helton’s bat and ended his season early in 2008 (105 wRC+, with a .124 ISO), but he rebounded in 2009 to produce a quality 135 wRC+. While no longer a massive power threat, Helton’s ISO rebounded to .164. Heading into 2010, CHONE and ZiPS expected some decline for the 36-year-old. The FANS were more optimistic:

CHONE: 125 wRC+, .146 ISO
ZiPS: 132 wRC+, .151 ISO
FANS: 140 wRC+, .167 ISO

Helton is still drawing plenty of free passes this season, walking in 15.9 percent of his plate appearances and swinging at just 18 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (27.4% MLB average in 2010). But his power output has dried up like a banquet beer in the blazing sun.

Among big league hitters with at least 100 PA, Helton’s .036 ISO ranks ahead of only Cesar Izturis (.021) and Juan Pierre (.007). Entering play Monday, Helton has yet to hit a single home run. Even with his on-base chops, Helton’s bat has been 15 percent worse than the MLB average in 2010 (85 wRC+).

Nothing much has changed with his batted ball distribution. Helton’s hitting line drives 27.5 percent of the time (25.3% average since 2002), ground balls 35.2 percent (35.7% since ’02) and fly balls 37.4 percent (39.1% since ’02). However, the lefty batter is pulling the ball less and hitting more to the opposite field, an approach that generally leads to less pop. Here are Helton’s spray numbers this year compared to 2009 (from Baseball-Reference):

sOPS+ is a stat that compares a batter’s park-adjusted performance in a given split to that of the league average. An sOPS+ of 100 is average, while an sOPS+ above 100 means the hitter is better than the league average.

In ’09, Helton was excellent when he pulled the ball, besting the league average by 43 percent. He also did pretty well when hitting to the middle and opposite fields. This year, his pull percentage is down, and he has been nine percent worse than the league average when he hits the ball to right field. Note the big increase in pitches hit to the opposite field, 17.2% in ’09 to 27.8% in 2010, and his abysmal performance when going oppo (40 sOPS+).

According to our Pitch Type Run Values, Helton has typically slammed fastballs (+1.50 runs per 100 pitches seen since 2002). But in 2010, he’s at -0.44 runs per 100 when he gets challenged with a heater.

It’s dangerous to draw bold conclusions from a month and a half of games. But Helton’s mild performance when pulling the ball, increased percentage of pitches hit to the opposite field and problems against fastballs paint the picture of a player whose bat has slowed. Helton likely won’t continue to “compete” with Izturis and Pierre for the title of least powerful hitter in the majors –his rest-of-season ZiPS calls for a .284/.394/.417 line with a .132 ISO–but his days of cracking lots of extra-base hits are over.

Santa is not the only one with an overflowing mailbag this time of year. Let’s answer two questions in this version.

Question #1: JMB asks:

Do you see Pablo Sandoval gaining catcher eligibility if the Giants go with Buster Posey behind the plate? I’m in a keeper league where I traded away Sandoval last season, but I’d love to have him back if I can exploit that angle. Posey obviously can’t catch 162 games. Will the Giants go to another backup trying to protect Sandoval’s elbow, or do you see him calling some games? Thanks for your help!

Unfortunately, I think the ship has sailed for Sandoval as a catcher. I think he did decent work behind the plate in his brief time as a catcher in the majors. But Sandoval caught only three games in 2009, with his last game behind the plate coming on May 8.

As you alluded to, in the third week of May, Sandoval suffered an arm injury when he strained his right elbow making a throw from third base during an Interleague game against the Mariners. He missed four games and the injury lingered a little after that, too. Perhaps the Giants had already made their decision to move Sandoval permanently off catcher prior to the injury, but it is noticeable that he did not do it again afterwards.

You did not mention the eligibility requirements for your league but it is very difficult to imagine him playing 20 games behind the plate. Even 10 games at catcher for Sandoval seems unattainable. Perhaps if your league requires only one game during the regular season to become eligible it becomes a possibility but I would not want to even wager on that chance.

Finally, do not expect Posey to open the year in San Francisco. In an article dated December 5, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote, “General manager Brian Sabean said the front office had a ‘raging debate’ over whether Posey would be the No. 1 catcher, adding, ‘We came to the overall conclusion it would be a tall order to ask him to do that. He just hasn’t played a lot.’”

Question #2: KE asks:

I have a keeper deadline on 12/31, and I’m struggling with who to keep for my last position. I’m in a 12 team auction league where the longer you keep a player the more you pay. My budget for next year is $285. The hitting categories are: R, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, net SB, K, BB, Avg. I’m looking for a 1-year deal and trying to decide between:

– Todd Helton ($2)
– Bobby Abreu ($20)
– Miguel Cabrera ($39)

My other keepers are: Pedroia ($19 for 5 years), S. Drew ($4 for 2 years), Choo ($13 for 3 years), Adam Jones ($13 for 3 years), Victorino ($14 for 1 year), Carpenter ($8 for 1 year) and Tommy Hanson ($8 for 3 years). We start 2C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 5 OF, 1B/3B, 2B/SS, Util.

The numbers tell me to keep Helton as a good value, but I’m concerned about walking into the draft without a 1st round talent (well, Pedroia rates out as a 1st rounder in our scoring system).

Any help you can provide would be greatly appreciated! Thanks.

I would not worry at all about having keepers with first-round talent. Instead, focus on how much value is on your roster and how much of a budget you and your fellow owners will bring to the auction.

Because of the net steals category, Abreu probably creates the most raw dollar value of the three, followed by Cabrera then Helton. But they are likely all within a few dollars of each other, making Helton the choice due to the large dollar discrepancy among their contracts.

Helton bounced back nicely from the back problems that plagued him during the 2008 season and turned in a fantasy season that fit in well with what he produced from 2005-2007. It may be that 2009 is the top end of what Helton can produce next season (his .355 BABIP was his highest since 2004) but even if he misses substantial time with injury a-la 2008, he is likely to exceed $2 in value. And if he plays in 150 games again, you will easily wind up with double-digit dollar value, an excellent return and a great building block for a money finish for you.

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