Archive for Texas Rangers Prospects

Prospect season is around the corner, and while various rankings, reports, and even trades will continue to influence the ebb and flow of prospect opinions, it’s helpful to lay the groundwork for establishing this year’s fantasy prospect values as early as possible.  The list below represents a very early look at the top 101 prospects in the game for fantasy leagues tailored specifically towards sabermetric scoring (where OPS, FIP, and wOBA are better indicators than AVG, ERA, and SB). For example, this list could be a resource for evaluating the value of prospects in Ottoneu points leagues (a separate post will follow ranking the top 101 prospects for traditional rotisserie leagues).

Years ago I introduced the Scorecard system, my custom prospect ranking process, and I’ve continued to use this method for scoring and ranking this crop of 2020 prospects.  In ranking these prospects I take into account the following factors:

Scouting

“Scouting” is everything that goes into evaluating the true talent of an MLB prospect.  Age, ability, stats, rankings, “makeup”, and scouting reports all play a role here.  It’s the input of information that causes you to ask about the player’s ceiling, their floor, and what might be realistic in between.  What are the risks, and how serious are they? Is this prospect regarded more for their defensive talents than offensive? What MLB players might they compare to? What is their future value expectation and how likely are they to reach it?

Royce Lewis scouts like a dream player (and #1 draft selection), but scouting alone hasn’t yet materialized into an elite on-field player, so there are other elements to consider when ranking him among the other top prospects in the game in this context.

Scoring

“Scoring” is honestly assessing whether the prospect’s skills and talents effectively translate to the specific scoring format of your fantasy league.  It seems obvious, but I continually see fantasy owners fail to make this connection in the way they draft and value their prospects each season.  While Drew Waters might be an exciting buy in a 5 x 5 auction, his value needs to be reassessed in the context of OPS leagues, for example.  In order to be more successful in building our dynasty rosters, we need to always project value within the context of our specific league, which is what this rating is designed to consider.

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In November I used the Prospect Scorecard to take an early look at the top 100 fantasy prospects for both Roto leagues and Ottoneu’s wOBA-heavy FanGraphs Points leagues.  In February I also added a quick fantasy spin on Eric and Kiley’s great preseason work ranking the top 100 prospects in baseball. Later this summer (July) I’ll update the top 100 for fantasy purposes, but today I want to briefly check in on a number of prospects that I think are rising (⬆) or falling (⬇) in value for various reasons in 2018.

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On Wednesday I reviewed the results of the first three rounds of a new dynasty league prospect draft.  I’ll continue that review today with rounds 4 – 6, where some deeper, more interesting prospects appear.

Dynasty Prospect Draft Review: Rounds 1 – 3

This draft should help you “discover” a few names to keep an eye on going forward.  If you have specific questions about players or the thought process of why they were selected, fire away in the comments section, as I’ve asked each owner in the league to be on standby to provide feedback as we review the rounds.

Before I review my own thoughts on the draft, you should know this Ottoneu league uses the “FanGraphs Points” scoring system based on linear weights, so offense is heavily slanted towards wOBA skills (and speed is almost a non-factor).  We also somewhat arbitrarily removed the Top 12 overall offensive prospects to save them for the standard 40-man auction next spring.  Otherwise, any minor league player without one (1) MLB PA or IP is eligible to be drafted.  You can read more about the custom rules of this dynasty league here, and follow along with the draft here.

Many of the prospects below are also featured on the 2018 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects list.

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I’ve recently completed two deep Ottoneu minor league drafts and am reminded just how difficult successful “prospecting” can be.  Regardless of how informed you may feel heading into an MiLB draft, you’re often left selecting players based upon small sample sizes, second hand reports, maybe a few brief videos and, as much as we want to deny it, a bias towards “scouting the stat lines”.  At the end of the day you’re making a decision using limited information that could have serious long term consequences for your dynasty team.

Prospecting is actually a lot like another critical business skill: hiring good employees.  The inputs might be a little different (scouting reports might be job references, batting practice videos might be one hour interviews, and stats, however limited, might be the resume sitting on your desk), but the challenge is the same: make an important, timely decision based on limited information, first impressions, and gut feel.

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Well this is odd. The Texas Rangers club is pitching poorly. With the fourth worst FIP and the third worst WHIP in all of Major League Baseball – and five pitchers with ERAs above 10.00 – the organization purchased the contract of one of its Top 2 pitching prospects. Left-hander Derek Holland has replaced right-handed reliever Josh Rupe, who was designated for assignment. Rupe had allowed 12 hits in 4.2 innings.

Holland was pitching in Triple-A Oklahoma, where he had made just one start this season. He allowed four runs on five hits and three walks in four innings of work. On the plus side, Holland also struck out five batters and induced four ground balls to just one fly ball. A starter in the minors, Holland is expected to begin his MLB career in the bullpen but it may not be long before he’s given a shot in the rotation considering the poor pitching performances from Kris Benson, Vicente Padilla and Matt Harrison.

Holland had a breakout season in 2007 – just his first full season in the minors after being selected in the 25th round of the 2006 draft out of Wallace State Community College. He signed with Texas the next spring. The southpaw played at three levels in 2008, seeing the most time in A-ball. He allowed 57 hits in 67 innings of work while also posting rates of 2.79 BB/9 and 8.74 K/9. Holland then started five games in High-A ball and four games in Double-A.

Holland’s repertoire is above-average for a left-handed pitcher. He can touch 98 mph with his fastball with excellent movement. His second-best pitch is a change-up, and he’s still working on the consistency of his slider.

Given his inexperience above single A-ball (five games), as well as the history of poor pitching in Texas, Holland probably will not set the world on fire right away. The club is being smart by introducing the left-hander to the Majors as a reliever. The 22-year-old hurler likely won’t have much of an impact at the big league level in 2009 but the experience should help set the foundation for a promising career… Assuming, that is, that the club doesn’t trade him away like Armando Galarraga, Edinson Volquez, and John Danks.