Archive for streaming pitchers

For those who don’t know, I started in this industry with a focus on streaming pitchers. By using various statistics for both pitchers and their opponents I have been providing advice to followers on who to stream in their leagues. What does streaming pitchers mean? Simply put it means grabbing a pitcher off your waiver wire for one start. You choose that pitcher based on matchup and skill hoping they provide you with decent ratios and then dump them back into the free-agent pool.

With that said it is important to know which pitchers are worth streaming in certain matchups. These pitchers typically aren’t good enough to keep on your team but could prove useful in the right matchup. This is important to know because this is a key factor in streaming successfully. For instance, no matter who Wade LeBlanc’s opponent is, you never want to take a chance on him. There is no strikeout potential, no ratio potential, and in his last three starts he has a 10.13 ERA. 

For this piece I wanted to keep it under 10% in terms of rostered percentage. This way it ensures most if not all of the names below are available in your league. 

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Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com, which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate). I’ve listed the players in order of interest.

Note: * denotes that ESPN ownership rates were used, as rates on FantasyPros were unavailable.

Must-Start

John Means (11-11, 3.54) at BOS |42%

Means has been a master at inducing soft contact this season, both on flies and liners (90.7 mph EV) and grounders (82.5 mph EV). Now he gets to face a Red Sox offense that ranks in the bottom third in ISO and wOBA for September. They may also still be adjusting from playing in high-80s temperatures in Texas to cool, damp weather in Boston. Means is a must-add and must-start.
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Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com, which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Note: * denotes that combined ESPN/Yahoo! ownership rates were unavailable on FantasyPros.com, so ESPN’s rate was used.

Pick Him Up!

Zac Gallen (3-6, 2.81) at SD | 51%

Gallen and his 28.7 percent strikeout rate take on the Padres at PETCO Park? It’s a matchup made in Strikeout Heaven. He’s a must-start and a must-add wherever available.
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Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com, which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Go Get ‘Em!

Merrill Kelly (10-14, 4.68) vs. CIN | 15%*

For only the second time this season, Kelly has put together three starts in a row with a SwStr% of at least 10 percent. It just so happens that those three most recent starts are the only ones in which Kelly has averaged at least 93 mph in fastball velocity. Across those outings, Kelly has a 3.18 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP to go along with 18 strikeouts in 17 innings. Factor in his .296 wOBA allowed in home starts plus a matchup with a Reds offense that ranks sixth in strikeout rate and 21st in wOBA over the last 30 days, and Kelly stands out as the best starter to add on this slate.
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In my previous column, I looked at what went right and what went wrong (mostly wrong) with my team in the Tout Wars mixed auction league in regard to the five hitting categories. This time, I am turning my attention to my team’s performance in the pitching categories. With a fourth-place finish in these categories, it’s a less painful exercise than the last one, but not much separated my team from the two teams tied for eighth place. I was nowhere close to Tim Heaney’s league-leading 68 points, so this account of my pitching staff will include some cautionary tales.
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It won’t likely come as a shock that, as we have one of our final opportunities to stream pitchers, there are few widely-available options worthy of our trust. In his recent piece on starting pitcher streaming options for the final weekend, Nick Pollack identified three pitchers from Friday’s slate who could be available and have some appeal. However, none of the three are likely to be on waivers in deeper formats.

In this column, I typically consider only pitchers who have an ownership rate of 25 percent or lower in Fantrax leagues, and even with setting the bar for availability fairly high, a couple of the pitchers featured here are at least worthy of consideration for your Friday rotation.
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There are a number of TBDs still listed for starting pitchers on Wednesday’s slate. The Orioles still need a starter for Game 1 in their doubleheader at Boston, and the Astros, Padres and Giants have yet to announce their starters. The same goes for the Rays, but that’s true for three out of every five games for them. It would be Jalen Beeks‘ turn to be their primary pitcher, but he has not lasted more than three innings in any of his last five appearances dating back to Aug. 29. Even if Beeks is at his best against the Yankees, it is doubtful that he will pitch enough innings to make a difference for your fantasy squad.
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With the countdown of games left winding down and the stakes getting higher, there are actually some intriguing pitchers to be found on waivers in the vast majority of leagues. But is there any enough reward to balance the risk with any of the widely-available ones who are scheduled to start Friday?

Here are the eight most-available starters or primary pitchers from Friday’s slate. I have been using a 25 percent ownership rate on Fantrax as a cutoff point for inclusion in these reports, but I extended it by a percentage point, just so I could write about Ian Kennedy.
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Wednesday’s slate of starting pitchers is not fully set, as there are still no fewer than five teams listing TBD as their starter as of this writing. I have filled in some of the blanks, projecting that Stephen Gonsalves will be the Twins’ primary pitcher and Sam Gaviglio will start for the Blue Jays. That increases the number of widely-available projected “starters” to eight, using a 25 percent ownership rate on Fantrax as a cutoff point.

While most owners are forsaking these hurlers, a few are reasonable streaming options, particularly in deeper formats.
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In recent articles, I’ve mentioned several times that Ottoneu uses a soft innings cap of 1,500 for the season. This allows you to go past the the cap on the day you reach it. (This is hardly specific to Ottoneu as Yahoo uses the same rules with innings caps). However, given the point structure many Ottoneu leagues implement there is an inherent advantage of pitching more innings that does not exist in 5×5 or 4×4 leagues. In 4×4 or 5×5 you could maybe boost your W, SV, or K (counting stats), but you could also lower your ratios if the stack of pitchers you employ have a sub-par outing. FanGraphs and SABR points leagues are a little different. In points leagues, as long as a pitcher doesn’t go negative (perform very badly) you will accrue points just by pitching more innings. As we enter the final week of the season I wanted to provide a list of all probable pitchers till the end of the year to help your schedule out those final 50-80 innings. Read the rest of this entry »