Archive for Shelley Duncan

There’s nothing more depressing than watching an athlete refuse to admit that the career is over. I understand the feelings involved and the internal struggles one has with their own diminished abilities and, in essence, their own mortality, but there comes a point where you just have to say, “enough is enough,” and learn to walk away from the game gracefully. Between Andy Pettitte‘s comeback with the Yankees, Jamie Moyer’s 78 mph fastball and the Indians’ recent signing of Johnny Damon, we’re seeing it far too much in baseball and every day is starting to look like Old Timer’s Day.

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RotoGraphs asked me to post my first-ever column for the site with six days left in the season. That’s right, six days.

This can only mean one thing, of course – they firmly believe that I will bring such brilliant and insightful advice that I can swing a full season of fantasy baseball with 500 words, less than a week before the season ends.

Well, maybe that isn’t what they had in mind, but I am going to give it a shot anyway. So here are six guys who are a) available in at least 90% of leagues (according to Yahoo) and b) will give you a chance to pick up those last couple points to break into the money or take the title.

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It wasn’t as if Shin-Soo Choo was really tearing it up for fantasy owners this season anyway, was he?  After back to back 20-20 seasons with a .300 average, the 28 year old Korean-born outfielder ran into a little trouble this year.  He struggled out of the gate in April and was then arrested on DUI charges at the beginning of May.  The apparent shame perpetuated the sub par play and now here in June, after being hit on the hand  by Giants’ starter Jonathan Sanchez, is on the DL with a broken thumb that will require surgery and will be sidelined for a minimum of six weeks. Read the rest of this entry »

A depressing season in Cleveland got considerably worse with the news that RF Shin-Soo Choo suffered a right thumb sprain diving for a ball against the Oakland A’s on Friday night. According to MLB.com’s John Barone, Choo’s bum thumb might require surgery, and the soon-to-be-28-year-old could be out until September. The covert star, ranking among the top 25 position players with 2.9 WAR, leaves behind a .286/.390/.475 line and a .383 wOBA.

With Choo on the shelf, the Indians recalled OF Michael Brantley from Triple-A Columbus. The PTBNL in the 2008 CC Sabathia swap will slide into the leadoff spot and patrol center field for the Tribe. Brantley, 23, possesses two traits that make him intriguing to fantasy owners — he owns the zone and he’s got great wheels.

Since making his full-season debut in 2006, the lefty batter has worked pitchers for walks, avoided whiffs and has stolen bases at a high percentage clip. Brantley batted .313/.406/.377 in 690 A-Ball plate appearances, drawing ball four 13.3% of the time, striking out 12.6% and swiping bags at a 76.4% success rate. At the Double-A Level, Mickey Brantley’s son hit .298/.382/.366 in 702 PA, with an 11.3 BB%, a 8.6 K% and an 80.4% rate of SB success. Over the past two years at Triple-A, Brantley’s got a .284/.364/.377 slash, while walking 10.9%, punching out 10.7% and coming up safe 85.1% of the time that he attempts a steal.

However, the 6-2, 200 pound Brantley rarely drives the ball — his Isolated power was .064 in A-Ball, .068 in Double-A and .093 in Triple-A. Before the 2010 season, Baseball America said that Brantley “doesn’t use his legs much in his swing,” but claimed that more pop could come if he learns to leverage his lower half when he takes a cut.

What can we expect from Brantley now that he’s back in the big leagues? He has a .270/.321/.304 line and a .278 wOBA in very limited playing time (161 PA) over the past two seasons. Brantley’s got a .276/.343/.357 rest-of-season ZiPS projection, with a .324 wOBA. CHONE has a .277/.347/.377 projection for the remainder of the 2010 season. Per Minor League Splits, Brantley’s work with the Clippers this season translates to a .294/.356/.370 showing in the majors.

Equipped with excellent strike zone awareness as well as speed that translates into production on the bases and in the field, Brantley is well worth a pickup in AL-only leagues. The biggest question he’ll have to answer is, can he at least occasionally drive the ball to keep pitchers from pounding the zone against him? If the worst possible outcome for the opposition is a single that skirts by the third baseman, Brantley’s impressive minor league walk rates might not come with him to the show.

Brantley’s recall also leaves Austin Kearns, Trevor Crowe and Shelley Duncan competing for two starting spots on most nights. Kearns has experienced something of a rebound after two lifeless, injury-marred seasons — he’s hitting .271/.354/.417 and has a .344 wOBA. The former Red and National could be trade bait this month. Crowe, 26, has done little to inspire confidence over the past two years. The 2005 first-round pick out of Arizona has a .245/.294/.337 line in 407 PA in 2009 and 2010, showing little in the way of secondary skills (6.1 BB%, .092 ISO). A long-time minor league slugger with the Yankees, Duncan has the best offensive projections among these three…

…but he’s also a 6-foot-5 leviathan projected to be a brutal defender by CHONE (-6 runs for the rest of the year; Kearns comes in at average in a corner spot and Crowe has a +4 rating). It’s doubtful that any of the three have significant fantasy value.

Cleveland Indians signed OF Austin Kearns and OF/1B Shelley Duncan to minor league contracts.

Have you seen Kearns’ bat? He misplaced it in 2008, and hasn’t been able to find it since. The former Red won’t 30 until May, but his production dropped like a lead balloon over the past two seasons. Injuries have often plagued Kearns, but he posted a 118 wRC+ in a 2006 season split between Cincinnati and Washington and a 107 wRC+ with the Nationals in 2007. He topped the 600 PA mark both years.

Since then, Kearns has a ghastly 75 wRC+ while showing the durability of antique porcelain. According to the Fantasy Pitch F/X Injury Tool, the 6-3 righty batter missed time in 2008 following right elbow surgery, while serving another DL stint for a stress fracture in his left foot. 2009 was tainted by right thumb surgery. Kearns still drew some walks in ’08 and ’09, but his power vanished:

Kearns’ ISO, by year

Kearns has been a quality defensive outfielder during his career, which helps his chances a bit. But he was an absolute wreck at the plate in 2009, with a sub-70 percent contact rate and a middle infielder-like .109 ISO. More than anything, he needs to show up to spring training in one piece.

Duncan, meanwhile, is a minor league slugger from the Yankees organization known for giving some hellacious forearm bumps.

The 30 year-old right-handed batter stands a hulking 6-5, 225 pounds, and holds a career .271/.368/.533 line in 1,200+ PA at the Triple-A level. He has drawn walks at a 12.8% clip, while striking out 19.9%. Duncan’s ISO in Triple-A is a robust .262.

Duncan has received minimal major league playing time, batting .219/.290/.411 with an 84 wRC+ in 163 PA. How would Duncan’s minor league mashing play at the highest level? Here are his Major League Equivalent (MLE) lines from 2007-2009, courtesy of Minor League Splits:

2007
AAA: .291/.379/.565 in 333 AB
MLE: .250/.322/.468

2008
AAA: .239/.363/.483 in 215 AB
MLE: .200/.299/.395

2009
AAA: .277/.371/.548 in 451 AB
MLE: .237/.316/.454

Duncan’s raw numbers look great, but his MLEs paint the picture of a league-average hitter because of his age. CHONE is more optimistic, projecting a .252/.336/.486 triple-slash in the majors.