Archive for sergio santos

There many of us here in the electronic series of tubes who don’t pay for closers. That is, we either literally don’t pay big money in auctions or we don’t pay with a precious fifth/sixth/seventh round pick, what have you. But regardless of your perspective on the drafting of closers, we can all probably agree that many a fantasy team has been immediately buoyed by the acquisition, pouncing on, stashing of, the future closer. Headed into 2013, there are a few closer situations with seemingly defined roles, although the hold might be tenuous.

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• Besides Giants’ fans and those in holds leagues, has anyone noticed the season Sergio Romo is having? The guy has been filthy. Tonight he earned his fourth handshake of the season while lowering his ERA to 0.83. Romo is inducing swings-and-misses at an astronomical rate (18.7 SwStr%) which leads us to believe his 12.39 K/9 is more than real. Although Romo has only accumulated 21.2 innings on the bump, he’s sporting a FIP (1.82), xFIP (1.89) and SIERA (1.65) that indicate we may see a slight regression, but we’re likely going to see more of the same. At this point, Romo is owned in holds leagues and in shallower leagues with saves chasers. If by chance he’s available, I’d consider making the add to get a weekly boost from his ERA (0.83), WHIP (0.79) and the aforementioned strikeouts.
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Today’s Roto Riteup comes in two flavors: spicy, and extra spicy.

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Today’s Roto Riteup features an inordinate amount of hispanic names.

• Chipper Jones is no longer on the DL, as the Atlanta Braves have activated the third baseman. The switch-hitter came back just in time for the home opener of his farewell tour. Juan Francisco and Martin Prado have been filling in while he’s been away, but both of their roles will change now. Prado will now be playing left field everyday, and Francisco will become a powerful pinch-hitter until Chipper inevitably hits the DL once again.

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With Sergio Santos being traded to the Toronto Blue Jays for Nestor Molina on Tuesday afternoon, it seems to signal the raising of a white flag of sorts on the South side. Santos had a pretty spectacular year, serving primarily as the team closer, posting a 2.87 FIP with a staggering 13.07 K/9, saving 30 games over 63.1 innings pitched. Santos is presumably the closer in Toronto, where he will have great fantasy value, but who will be handling ninth inning duties for the White Sox is very much up in the air — although they have plenty of options.

First in line would presumably be Matt Thornton, who entered 2011 splitting duties with Chris Sale, and then kinda-sorta handed the full time closer role, and then subsequently blew up and was relegated back to set-up duties. And while he wasn’t quite as dominant has he was in the previous two seasons, he was still pretty nasty — putting up a 2.62 FIP and a 9.50 K/9 rate. His strikeouts were down from 12.02 K/9 in 2010, but even at 9.50, it was right in line with his career average. He was stung by some bad luck with a strand rate of just 61.2% whereas his career rate sits at 74.7%, not to mention a BABIP of .326 where his career rate is .295. After a horrific first month of the season (5.91 FIP), Thornton was mostly back to his old self, throwing 51 innings, giving up 45 hits, striking out 53, allowing just one home run, posting an ERA of 2.45 and holding opponents to a .232/.286/.289 triple-slash. But if there’s truly a fire sale going on, it’s probable that they’ll be taking offers for Thornton too.

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As we sit and wait for all the big-named free agents to find themselves new homes, it’s time to start thinking about strategy for next year.  There are numerous of ways to go about drafting your team and you’re going to hear plenty of do’s and don’ts from a variety of people.  So allow me to chime in here first and tell you why punting saves should not be in your plans when developing a proper draft strategy.  Some people see no harm in it and tell you to just bulk up elsewhere.  I disagree.  It’s an automatic concession of points to your competition and immediately puts you at a disadvantage.

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When playing typical fantasy baseball, the main thing that fantasy managers typically worry about regarding relievers is one thing: jobs.  If a reliever is a closer, he has value.  If not, they generally are considered to have very little value except in very deep leagues.

In FanGraphs Points leagues, however, a reliever’s job means a bit less, because saves (worth 5 points apiece) are worth only marginally more than a hold (4 points).  With that in mind, I think it’s interesting to take a look at reliever rankings without worrying about jobs.  In a sense, what we’re talking about are “true talent” projections for relievers, but still including things like park factors that do matter for fantasy comparisons.  If you have an estimate of a pitcher’s true talent, you may be able to find that cheap bargain pitcher who will outperform bad relievers with jobs.  And in all likelihood, the best pitchers would be expected to be among the first to take on the closer role once it becomes available.

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