According to WAR, the 2014 Oakland rotation was the tenth best staff in the league. But without 185 or so combined innings from Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija, it’s going to be hard for them to repeat that feat. They brought in a few new faces, but for the most part, they’ll begin the year by filling the holes with internal options. Read the rest of this entry »
Public disclaimer on this one as I’m an admitted Scott Kazmir fan. I own him on virtually every one of my fantasy teams, and the part of me that loves good baseball stories just can’t get enough of the path that Kazmir has taken over his career. That’s probably a fatal flaw of mine relative to fantasy baseball success — the tendency to own guys you actually like to root for in real life. And I still root for Scott Kazmir. But that doesn’t mean I’d still start him on my fantasy baseball teams.
“See yourself in your opponents. They will bring you to understand the Game. To accept that the Game is about managed fear. That its object is to send from yourself what you hope will not return” -David Foster Wallace, Infinite Jest.
David Foster Wallace was writing about tennis, not baseball, but one wonders what the “Game” did to Scott Kazmir. A young, left-handed phenom leading the league in strikeouts at age 23 is suddenly out of the league by 28. Finished. He reaches back and instead of finding mid-90s heat, the ball is coming out too slow to retire big league or even minor league hitters. Instead of entering the prime of his career, he was trying to find himself in independent ball with the Sugar Land Skeeters. The who now?
Kazmir described what went wrong with his career when he told FanGraphs last year, “Basically, I ended up building bad habits. Once you do something over and over, it’s hard to get back where you were. You’re healthy, but you don’t have that feel anymore.”
Russell A. Carleton recently wrote of habits, “Baseball players grow and change like everyone else, because they are human. It’s hard for humans to change a behavior and to sustain that change — how’s that New Year’s Resolution going?”
The simplicity of that statement–It’s hard for humans to change a behavior and to sustain that change–hit me like a ton of bricks. Intuitively, that’s obvious, but there are a lot of bad habits I’ve been trying to change to no avail. I couldn’t figure out why I wasn’t able to just pick up one day and become like a perfect Buddhist or something. It turns out that change isn’t so easy for us humans. Who knew?
Back to Kazmir. He went on to say, “There were things going on in my life. I don’t want to get into it too much, but there was some stuff that became overwhelming…Things started snowballing in my life. There were a lot of questions I had to answer after I got released. What am I going to do? How am I going to go forward in life?”
What exactly did Kazmir put himself through to be able to come back with a vengeance? He posted a 4.04 ERA with solid peripherals and improved velocity last year in Cleveland. After averaging 86.5 mph on the heater in 2011, his velo was back up to an average of 92.5 mph last season. His 3.51 FIP, 3.36 xFIP, 24.1 percent strikeout rate, and 7.0 percent walk rate pointed to a pitcher who was much better than his decent ERA indicated.
A’s general manager Billy Beane rewarded Kazmir’s resurrection with a two-year, $22 million deal this winter. Thus far, Kazmir has continued to deliver. He’s given the A’s five quality starts in six tries with a 2.11 ERA and a 2.43 FIP. His average velocity is down a little from 92.5 last year to 90.8 thus far in 2014, though that could be the result of his decreased usage of the four-seam fastball.
When I saw him throw against Seattle earlier this year, he was often hitting 95 on the radar gun the A’s telecast was using, though that was his best velocity day of the season. Kazmir missed some time during the spring with a triceps strain, which is why I didn’t ultimately draft him in fantasy despite spending the winter writing open letters to Brian Sabean demanding that he sign Kazmir. Sabean never got back to me as per usual, and Tim Hudson has been exceptional, but where would the Giants be with Kazmir instead of Tim Lincecum or Ryan Vogelsong in the rotation? They’d be better right now, and I’d be even happier.
Given that Kazmir hit the market coming off a strong season at just 30 years old and had to settle for a two-year deal this winter, perhaps there’s something in his medicals to be concerned with. The spring triceps strain and early season velocity fluctuations are signs that Kazmir still bears close monitoring despite his dominance thus far.
Kazmir somehow found a way to go forward in life and get his career back on track. It’d be interesting to find out the details on the path he took. How did he put what appeared to be irrevocably broken back together? More importantly, can he sustain it?
No team has won more games over the last two-plus seasons than the A’s, who are 208-144 since the beginning of 2012. If Billy Beane’s stuff is going to start working in the postseason in 2014, having a healthy, dominating Kazmir alongside the sensational Sonny Gray at the top of the Oakland rotation will be a huge key.
The game has a way of eventually exposing you. Baseball will bring to your knees in failure. Not may players have fallen as far and as quickly as Kazmir did, but not many players have bounced back as suddenly to the heights Kazmir is reaching in his career once more. Can he sustain the changed behaviors and performance of the last season-plus?
His peripherals say yes but his bizarre career trajectory makes him an endless mystery. Did the game smooth out his rough edges and remove from him that which he hopes will never return?
You could consider this a post about the now and the future, depending on your perspective. If you’re still in a dogfight this late into the season, well bully for you. If you’re in planning mode for next year’s draft or who you’re going to keep, well big warm hugs and “you’re a participant” ribbon to you. As a father, I’ve discovered that there’s no losers anymore, only degrees of totally not winning. I digress.
I was trolling the glorious Fangraphs leaderboards, desperate to find someone to start this week in a Yahoo-style innings blowup and I was quite surprised to find a Houston Astro that emerged among the top 25. The top 25 of anything, for that matter. But lo, Dallas Keuchel shone brightly like an All-Star representative from a team undeserving of All-Star representation.
Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks
The USC product mowed down hitters in the minors (9.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9) and posted solid Major League Equivalent lines in 2007 and 2008, but modest stuff and a lost 2009 season dented Kennedy’s value. Last year, surgery to repair an aneurysm under his right armpit limited him to one big league inning and 22.2 frames at Triple-A.
Picked up from the Yankees as part of a three-team deal over the winter, Kennedy has settled in quite nicely in the desert. He has been fortunate on balls put in play (.252 BABIP) and his 82.9 percent strand rate will likely fall, so the 3.48 ERA will rise. But in 44 innings, the 25-year-old righty has 7.16 K/9, 2.25 BB/9 and a 4.11 xFIP.
Throwing high-70’s curves, low-80’s changeups and occasional mid-80’s sliders to supplement an 89-90 MPH fastball, Kennedy is holding his own with an 8.9 percent swinging strike rate (8.3% MLB average). He’s pounding the zone, with 52.7 percent of his pitches crossing the plate (48% MLB average) and has an impressive 65.9 first pitch strike percentage (57.7% MLB average).
Kennedy is a fly ball pitcher in a park that inflates homer production, and he’s not keeping the near-.250 BABIP. Even so, he’s owned in just 17% of Yahoo leagues and seems capable of posting a low-four’s ERA with a solid K/BB ratio from here on out.
Vladimir Guerrero, Rangers
Hampered by knee, pectoral and calf injuries, Vlad had a tame .343 wOBA in 2009. His Isolated Power, typically in the low-to-mid-.200’s, was .164. At 35, with his body seemingly failing him, Guerrero looked to be firmly on the decline.
Instead, The Impaler is hitting .339/.375/.539 (.390 wOBA), and his ISO is back up to an even .200. Guerrero is pulling the ball more often this year, and he’s hitting the ball with a little more authority to the middle field as well (data from Baseball-Reference):
And, would you believe that Vlad is actually hacking more than usual this year? Famous for a Lone star state-sized strike zone, Guerrero has chased 49 percent of pitches thrown off the plate, his highest rate dating back to 2002. He’s not human.
Jaime Garcia, Cardinals
The 23-year-old southpaw has received plenty of attention around these parts, yet Garcia is available in one-third of Yahoo leagues.
Featuring a cornucopia of pitches (fastball, two-seamer, curve, slider, cutter, changeup), Garcia has whiffed 7.11 batters per nine innings, walked 3.55 and has induced ground balls at a 62 percent clip.
St. Louis’ 22nd round pick in the ’05 draft will eventually surrender a dinger, his .252 BABIP will rise and he’ll strand less than 83 percent of base runners (those numbers help explain the 1.18 ERA). But Garcia’s xFIP is a stellar 3.59. He’s getting swinging strikes 9.6 percent, and has gotten batters to chase pitches out of the zone 28.5 percent (27.2% MLB average in 2010). Durability is a concern, but with solid K rates and ground ball tendencies, Garcia is well worth a roster spot.
Adam Jones, Orioles
Baltimore’s center fielder appeared headed for bigger and better things this season, coming off of a 2009 campaign in which he improved his walk rate, ISO and wOBA.
Instead of building off of 2009’s .343 wOBA, Jones holds a brutal .265 wOBA in 2010. After compiling a .180 ISO last year, he’s at .126 this season. He’s chasing more pitches out of the zone than ever (40.7%, compared to an already-high 35.9% career rate) and he’s taking a cut at fewer pitches within the zone (64.5% – his career mark is 70.6%). Swinging at more junk pitches and letting more strikes go by – that’s a recipe for a lot of pitcher’s counts. Indeed, Jones’ first pitch strike percentage is 66.4. Not surprisingly, he’s drawing walks at a career-worst 2.9 percent rate.
Scott Kazmir, Angels
Kazmir has lost velocity and K’s, while keeping the walks and extreme fly ball proclivities. Past reputation aside, Kazmir’s current blend of skills makes him the AL’s answer to Oliver Perez.
The 26-year-old lefty, slowed by elbow, quad and shoulder problems in recent years, has 7.82 K/9, 5.68 BB/9, a 32.9% ground ball rate and an ugly 5.51 xFIP in 25.1 innings this season. Though his swinging strike and contact rates have bounced back somewhat from last year’s career-worst levels, they fall short of his Rays glory days. And, he has placed just 42.9 percent of his pitches within the strike zone. Kazmir’s xFIPs from 2007-2009? 3.79, 4.13, and 4.88. He has been in gradual decline for a while – this isn’t the same electric starter who broke in with Tampa.
Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
Is it time to get concerned here? The 31-year-old Ramirez, who missed time last season with a dislocated left shoulder, is hitting just .163/.226/.260. Among batters with at least 80 trips to the plate, only Brandon Wood and Jerry Hairston have posted worse wOBA’s than A-Ram’s .218.
While Ramirez has an insanely low .183 BABIP, he hasn’t hit for any power (.098 ISO) and he’s whiffing much more than usual (24.4 K%, 15.4% career average). His percentage of in-zone contact is just 81.3, well below his 87.5% average since 2002 and the 87-88% big league average.
Ramirez usually rakes against fastballs. Per 100 pitches seen, he posted +1.3, +1.38 and +1.36 run values versus heaters from 2007-2009. This season, he’s at a MLB-worst -4.24. Maybe it’s just a timing issue, but Ramirez’s bat looks slow.
Remember “Scott Kazmir, Power Pitcher?” The diminutive lefty, stolen from the New York Mets in an infamous July 2004 deal for Victor Zambrano, established himself as one of the hardest pitchers to hit in the majors.
Sure, his control left something to be desired. But many sins can be forgiven when a southpaw in his early twenties boasts low-to-mid-90’s velocity with a strikeout rate nearing ten batters per nine frames (see Kershaw, Clayton).
After posting FIP’s of 3.76, 3.36 and 3.45 between 2005 and 2007, Kazmir appeared to take a step back in 2008. Sidelined with an elbow injury until early May, the 6-foot lefty wasn’t the same hurler we had become accustomed to.
His K rate remained high (9.81). But, his walk rate increased and his groundball rate plummeted from the low-40’s to just 31 percent. Throwing his heater three-quarters of the time and nearly scrapping his slider, Kazmir coughed up 1.36 homers per nine innings. His FIP was a mild 4.37.
In 2009, Kazmir has cut his walk rate to 3.67 per nine innings (4.14 in 2008). However, his strikeout rate has plummeted. Scott has registered just 7.15 K/9, a far cry from his career mark of 9.31 K/9.
Kazmir’s fastball (coming in at a career-low 91.1 MPH) hasn’t been the same plus this season. His heater was worth +0.55, +0.54 and +0.85 runs per 100 pitches from 2006-2008, but the pitch has been exactly average in 2009 (0.0 per 100 pitches). Kazmir has mixed in his slider more often (21.1%, compared to 9.6% in 2008), but it has been nothing special at -0.29 runs per 100 tosses. Only his 79 MPH changeup has been above-average, though just slightly (+0.09).
The 25 year-old’s diminished stuff is highlighted by his contact rates. On pitches within the strike zone, opposing batters have made contact 86.4% of the time. That’s the highest rate of Kazmir’s career, and comfortably above his career 84 percent mark.
However, the biggest change, by far, is Kazmir’s rate of contact on pitches outside of the zone. When he was whiffing nearly 10 hitters per nine innings, Kazmir posted O-Contact rates well below the major league average. This year, hitters aren’t getting fooled at all:
Kazmir’s O-Contact Rates, 2005-2009:
2005
Kazmir: 49.2
MLB Avg: 51.8
2006
Kazmir: 42.8
MLB Avg: 57.4
2007
Kazmir: 49.5
MLB Avg: 60.8
2008
Kazmir: 58.5
MLB Avg: 61.7
2009
Kazmir: 70.5
MLB Avg: 61.8
When Kazmir tosses a pitch off the plate in hopes of getting a whiff, hitters are making a ton of contact. His swinging strike percentage, mostly in the 11-12% range during his career, is just slightly over 8 percent in 2009 ( right around the MLB average of 7.8% for starters).
Want another indication that Kazmir is struggling to put batters away? Take his performance with two strikes on the batter. Baseball-Reference offers a stat called sOPS+, which compares a player’s performance in a given split to the league average (100 is average, less than 100 is above-average for the pitcher, greater than 100 is below-average for the hurler). Kazmir’s sOPS+ with two strikes is 114 in 2009 (14 percent worse than the league average). His sOPS+ with two strikes was 84 in 2005, 85 in 2006, 69 in 2007 and 82 in 2008.
Kazmir has kept the fly balls as well, with a 33.8 GB%. He allowed nearly a homer per nine innings in ’09 (0.98 HR/9), despite a HR/FB rate well below the league average (7.3%). His Expected Fielding Independent ERA (based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB percentage) is an ugly 5.06.
Scott is signed through 2011, with a club option for the 2012 campaign. He’ll make a total of $20M over the 2010 and 2011 seasons, with a $13.5M option for 2012.
If he rebounds, he will be well worth the cash. But Kazmir has been an average starter for two years running. If he’s a 2-2.5 WAR pitcher, then he’s basically being paid what he’s worth. That would mean that Rays made out splendidly in Augusts’ swap with the Angels, parting with a declining starter being paid a market-value salary while picking up three decent prospects in Alexander Torres, Matt Sweeney and Sean Rodriguez.
Fantasy owners should approach Kazmir cautiously heading into 2010. He’s not the same dominant starter these days.
Here is the latest update to Week 26 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.
Pitchers not listed on last update
LAA – Kazmir
PHI – Happ
SFG – Sanchez
ATL – Hudson
WAS – Martin
HOU – Lopez
Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts
CHC – Wells
HOU – Norris
PHI – Moyer
FLA – VandenHurk
HOU – Bazardo
Kazmir has a 2.01 ERA in five games with the Angels but just a 1-2 record to show for it. In his last start against the Yankees, Kazmir averaged 93.77 with his four-seam fastball and hit 95.8 in a game in which he notched a Quality Start but came away with a loss. What has not changed since his move to Anaheim is his fly ball tendencies. In those five starts, Kazmir has 23 ground balls compared to 70 fly balls.
Happ sits atop the FanGraphs leaderboard with an 86 percent LOB%. He also comes in first place with a minus 1.49 in ERA-FIP. And his .261 BABIP places third. Even his homer rate is a bit fortunate with a 9.0 percent HR/FB mark.
Sanchez has 91 Ks in 73.2 IP since his no-hitter earlier this year but has a 3.79 ERA and a 4-4 record in 13 starts in that span. He has allowed 37 walks in that stretch and also nine HR. Sanchez faces Arizona and San Diego this week, two of the four teams he has an ERA under four against this season.
Hudson has a 4.13 GB/FB ratio in five starts since being activated from the disabled list. Joel Pineiro leads all qualified pitchers with a 2.67 GB/FB mark. And unlike Pineiro, Hudson has maintained his strikeout rate with the extreme ground ball tendency this season. He has a 5.34 K/9 compared to a 5.39 K/p in 2008.
Martin is 4-2 with a 3.78 ERA in six road starts this season. This week he gets the Mets at home and the Braves on the road. The rookie is 1-1 versus New York in two starts but has yet to face Atlanta.
Lopez is slated to make his first start in the majors after six relief appearances for Houston this season. At Double-A this season, Lopez appeared in 29 games, made 15 starts, and had a 4-5 record with a 4.73 ERA. The 26-year old is a fastball/slider pitcher and was acquired on waivers by the Astros early this season after being released by San Diego.
We’ve taken a shot at predicting the fantasy value of position players in new digs, and now it’s time to see what a Tampa Bay pitcher can do in the city of Angels.
Scott Kazmir leaves a park in Tampa Bay that is relatively kind to fly ball pitchers and has averaged a .916 park factor for home runs over the past three years. His new home is less forgiving (a 1.01 park factor for big flies over the past three years), something that a pitcher who has recently been giving up more fly balls will not appreciate.
Then again, Kazmir will be leaving the tough American League East and heading to a division with two of the worst offenses in baseball. He might enjoy that more if he didn’t own good records against the Red Sox (8-7, 3.59 ERA) and the Yankees (6-4, 2.53 ERA). On the other hand, he’s had a good run against the AL West, too (12-6, sub-3.10 ERA). In any case, if he takes the fifth starter spot in Anaheim, Kazmir will have some nice matchups in the beginning of September (@SEA, vsSEA) before ending on a rough note (vsCWS, @TEX, vsNYY, vsTEX).
The problem with using his old cumulative records is that Kazmir is no longer the pitcher he used to be. That has to be the reason behind the Rays’ trade, as well. They’ve seen the reduced velocity (he’s lost over two MPH on all of his offerings, and four MPH on his changeup), they’ve noticed that he’s been hurt more often these past two years (150 innings last year and on pace for a similar total this year), and they think they’ve gotten the best of this young pitcher (over $70 million in value over the past five years, against only about $5 million in salary) and were ready to move on before he got more expensive than he was worth. Kudos to them.
A lot has been made of the decline of his slider, which has gone from a plus pitch to a minus one in his five years in Tampa. He’s had arm troubles this year and last, and the slider often gets blamed in times like these. In the end, though, the real concern should be with his fastball, which was one of the best pitches in baseball the last two years and is now a negative. It’s lost velocity, and he’s seemingly lost confidence in the pitch, as he’s throwing it less. Just look at his usage rate of the fastball in recent games. He’s not throwing his fastball with authority and that’s the real issue here.
It’s not likely that Kazmir will suddenly regain his lost form this year. Amazingly, he seems to be fulfilling the prophecy that Jim Duquette fell back on when criticized for his Scott Kazmir-for-Victor Zambrano disasterpiece. Kazmir is a relatively small guy for a pitcher (6’0″, 190), and now he’s looking like the oft-injured pitcher Duquette thought he might be. On the other hand, the Mets probably could have used those last five years of good production Kazmir gave the Rays.
Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 8.
Fausto Carmona – In three of his four seasons in the majors, including this one, Carmona’s ERA has been above five. This year he has as many walks as strikeouts. And while his LD% (18.8) and FB% (24.4) look very good, they are the worst marks of his career. Instead of wondering if you should start him, perhaps you should be scanning the waiver wire looking for his replacement.
Scott Kazmir – He is owned in 95 percent of CBS Sports leagues and was a starter in 64 percent of them last week. And he’s been terrible in his last five starts. His velocity is down under 90 for the first time in his career, his command has gotten worse (5.72 BB/9) and his SwSTR% is nearly half of what it was a year ago, down to 6.4 percent. Move him to the bench so you don’t get stuck with two bad starts.
John Maine – While Johan Santana has been struggling for run support, the Mets’ bats come alive when Maine is on the mound. For the season, the Mets have scored 5.77 runs per game for Maine and in his last five games they’ve given him an average of 6.6 runs. Maine has pitched well in four of those last five games and has picked up three wins in that span. He gets two starts at home this week, facing the Nationals and the Marlins.
Sean Marshall – His FIP is a run higher than his actual ERA due in large part to his poor HR rate. But Marshall faces the Pirates and the Dodgers this week, two teams that are below-average in hitting homers. Despite giving up five HR in his last four starts, Marshall has pitched well enough to give the Cubs a chance to win each of them.
Brad Penny – With an ERA above six, Penny hits the road this week to face Toronto, which leads the league in runs scored, and Minnesota, which just put up 20 runs in one game. Penny’s velocity is fine but he’s not getting nearly as many swings on balls out of the strike zone. In 2007 he had a 29 percent O-Swing% and this year it’s down to 17.5 percent. And when they do swing, he’s not getting as many misses, either, as his 5.1 percent SwStr% is a career-low. Not surprisingly, Penny’s 4.60 K/9 is the worst mark of his career.
Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 8 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.
Verlander, Garza, Gallardo, Vazquez, Dempster, W. Rodriguez, Harang, Lester, E. Santana, Liriano, E. Jackson, Danks, Carpenter, Volstad, Millwood, Maholm, Meche, De la Rosa, D. Davis, Harrison, Sanchez, Hughes, Guthrie, Cecil, Lannan, Blackburn, Braden, Stults, Medlen, Moyer, Pavano, Anderson, Gaudin, Augenstein, Jakubauskas, Milton, Eaton.
Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.
Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 6 and how they did.
Slowey – Advised to sit. W, 10 K, 1.98 ERA, 1.24 WHIP (2 starts)
Masterson – Advised to start. 9 K, 2.92 ERA, 1.46 WHIP (2)
Pelfrey – Advised to start 5 K, 2.77 ERA, 1.15 WHIP (2)
Zimmerman – Advised to start. 14 K, 8.18 ERA, 1.73 WHIP (2)
Hampton – Advised to sit. W, 3 K, 7.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP (1)
Stock Up
Johnny Cueto, Reds
Cueto displayed his superb talent last season, though his tendency to cough up homers and occasionally lose the strike zone dragged down his overall line. In 2009, he’s made progress on both fronts. In 39.2 frames, Cueto has a 3.13 FIP, the product of a 2.91 strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.32 in ’08) and 0.45 HR/9. There’s certainly been some lucky bounces here to produce that 1.59 ERA: Cueto’s BABIP is .260, his strand rate is near 90% and his 4.2 HR/FB% is extremely low.
On the bright side, he’s shaved a little more than one walk per nine innings off his 2008 total (2.50 BB/9 this year, 3.52 in ’08). While his K rate (7.26 K/9) is down from last season (8.17), the overall net effect is positive (as Justin pointed out in the comments section, Cueto’s K/PA figure is slightly higher this year due to his efficiency). Cueto’s Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP), based on a pitcher’s K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, checks in at 4.34 (4.62 last season).
Jay Bruce, Reds
It’s the all-Reds edition of Stock Watch! A 22 year-old lefty with immense power, Bruce has adapted to major league pitching faster than most anticipated. With a .391 wOBA, 10 big flys and a sweet .262/.342/.570 line, Bruce has certainly been The Boss in 2009. Happily, his control of the strike zone (his biggest hurdle) has improved. Bruce has drawn a walk 10.1% of the time in 2009 (7.4% last year), whiffed less often (20.6% in ’09, 26.6% in ’08), and has cut his Outside-Swing percentage from 30.4% to 25.7%. In other words, he’s already among the best outfielders in the game, and he’ll only get better from here.
Carl Crawford, Rays
Crawford has probably stolen about six bases since I started typing this sentence. Tampa’s swift left fielder has been an absolute terror on the base paths in 2009, going a perfect 22-for-22 on stolen base attempts. With 3 more thefts, Crawford will match his total from an injury-marred 2008 season. If we use Tom Tango’s SB run value of +.19, then Crawford is closing in on half a win added in the stolen base department already.
Fortunately, Crawford is showing progress in other facets of his game as well. His Outside Swing% is down to 24.8%, from last year’s hacktastic 31.5% mark (24.4% MLB average). His 8.8% walk rate isn’t awe-inspiring, but it is the highest mark of his career. With 1.7 Wins Above Replacement, Crawford has been one of the ten most productive position players in the game.
Edwin Jackson, Tigers
Let’s give credit where it’s due: Jackson has been pretty darned effective in 2009. He came to Detroit with a reputation as a radar-gun curiosity who didn’t miss many bats or control the zone particularly well, but he’s making strides. Jackson isn’t a 2.60 ERA pitcher (duh), but his K/BB ratio is an impressive 3.18. With 7 K’s per nine and 2.20 BB/9, Jackson holds a 3.51 FIP. He’s looking more legitimate by the start.
David Wright, Mets
Wright’s early-season scuffle raised both panic and ire, but he’s just fine now. His wOBA is back up to .367, and he’s popped enough extra-base hits of late to raise his Isolated Power to .174. Wright is batting .364/.436/.697 in May. Hopefully, you didn’t sell low. One aspect of Wright’s game that is curiously diminishing is his stolen base ability. He was 34-for-39 in 2007, 15-for-20 in 2008 and just 5-for-10 in 2009.
Stock Down
Scott Kazmir, Rays
What happens to a control-challenged southpaw when he loses his ability to dominate hitters? Take a gander at Kazmir to find out. The 25 year-old’s walk rate has increased for a fourth straight season (4.97 BB/9), but he’s just not fooling batters the way he used to (7.11 K/9). Kazmir’s fastball velocity has dipped from 91.7 MPH in 2008 to just 89.9 MPH in 2009, and his hard, mid-80’s power slider is now more of a low-octane frisbee (80.4 MPH). With just 46.4% of his offerings crossing home plate (48.9% MLB average) and opponents making contact 84.3% of the time (75.1% career average), something is wrong with the Rays’ former ace.
Mike Aviles, Royals
Tony Pena Jr. might be on the DL, but Aviles has compensated by doing his best impression. After an unexpectedly productive rookie season, Aviles’ bat has flat lined in 2009. Impatient to a fault (2.9 BB%), the 28 year-old isn’t getting any favorable bounces on balls put in play (.247 BABIP). His nefarious .226 wOBA is fifth-worst among all batters, and he’s been nearly a win below replacement level with the lumber already. With lackluster play in the field as well (-12.6 UZR/150), Aviles has been an anchor on Kansas City’s hopes of staying competitive.
Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
Never exactly known for his feats of strength (career .150 ISO and .431 SLG%), Jackson has been downright punchless this season. His microscopic .071 ISO ranks among the worst in the game. Jackson is not this bad, mind you: his .210 BABIP is incredibly low, so he should revert back more toward his usual level of production as the season goes on. The question is: is that enough? Underpowered as a first baseman, Jackson’s work in left field is still under review. Singles-hitting corner players aren’t exactly in vogue, so the 27 year-old is going to have to show some thump to do more good than harm to Arizona’s dwindling playoff chances.
Jeff Francoeur, Braves
Francoeur is this generation’s Joe Carter, compiling counting stats that mask the fact that he’s sort of a drag on his team’s offense. Frenchy continues to show next to no progress in terms of plate discipline, wildly hacking at 34.6% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. Not coincidentally, his First-Pitch Strike% is a career-high 71 percent (57.6% MLB average). Francoeur has gotten behind 0-1 or put the ball in play on the first pitch more than any other batter in the majors. With a wretched .290 OBP and little pop (.136 ISO), he’s produced a .299 wOBA. Showing apparent apathy toward working the count, Francoeur is an absolute mess at the plate right now.
Ian Snell, Pirates
Snell scarcely resembles the guy who posted a 4.01 FIP during the 2007 campaign. After walking 2.94 batters per nine innings during that year, Snell’s control took a giant leap back in ’08 (4.87 BB/9) and continues to go south in 2009 (5.4 BB/9). His K rate, 8.18 during his first full season in the big in 2006, checks in at just 6.08 this year (the continuation of a four-year decline). He’s not fooling much of anyone, and has put just 44.3% of his pitches within the strike zone (48.9% MLB average). Snell will continue to take his turns on a pitching-starved staff, but he hasn’t pitched like an above-average starter in quite some time. His FIP is 5.33.
