Archive for Ryan Raburn

In every draft you do, there are players who you target and players who you settle for. As we move through these depth chart discussions, it’s good to look at outfields such as that of the Indians, because, while you have your draft strategy mapped out and have your list of targets, something always goes awry and you need to settle for Plan B. Not to worry, though. Plan B isn’t so bad as you have some potential upside. The ceiling has the potential to be high, the floor isn’t too bad and more often than not, they end up somewhere in the middle. These Indians are your Plan B. Read the rest of this entry »

So we’ve done a pretty thorough bludgeoning of the recent reader mock draft, looking at almost every round except for the fliers, and covering several of the positions along the way as well. Second base has me particularly concerned headed into 2012, so let’s break down how the readers handled the challenge of staffing their squads at that position.

The following chart is pretty self explanatory – where the player was selected in the reader mock, what their average draft position is over at Mock Draft Central, and the difference between the two to the right:

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Unless you’re sitting on one of the top five or six guys that are out there, chances are you’re struggling with production at second base and are looking desperately to find someone to plug that hole for the rest of the year.  Well, based on these ownership percentages, you might just have that help right in front of you.  Here’s a pair of guys you might want consider using right now… Read the rest of this entry »

The Detroit Tigers traded INF Scott Sizemore to the Oakland Athletics for LHP David Purcey.

Sizemore, 26, holds a career .315/.392/.487 line in 764 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. The Virginia Commonwealth product has shown pretty good patience (9.4% walk rate) and power (.172 Isolated Power) in the International League. He was never considered a premium prospect — Baseball America ranked him tenth in the Tigers’ system prior to last season — but BA did say he possessed a “compact swing and a knack for putting the barrel on the ball.”

Detroit didn’t give Sizemore much time to translate that swing to major league success, though, making him the starter at second base for brief periods of time over the past two seasons and then abandoning ship after he didn’t hit in small sample sizes. In 237 career major league plate appearances, the righty batter has a .223/.306/.306 triple-slash. Sizemore has managed a 10.5% walk rate, but he has struck out in 28.6% of his at-bats while rarely ripping the ball into the gaps or over the fence (.083 ISO, 3 HR).

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My wife was late last week.  Not late for dinner late, but late late.  To subdue the paranoia, it was a quick trip to the drug store and back home for her to pee on the stick.  We sit and wait.  Can’t be, can she?  Apologies to my Catholic readers, but she’s on the pill.  We couldn’t possibly be part of that unlucky 2% could we?  We look and see a plus sign.  That can’t be good.  It’s not.  I hand her another one.  This time it looks negative but there’s some coloration that still makes us nervous.  Rather than reach for the nearest coat hanger, I make her a doctor’s appointment and luck out with an 8am opening the next day.  She goes in, the doctor confirms a false positive and the bullet gets dodged.  Phew! Read the rest of this entry »

Before we do an early-early 2011 ranking for these positions, let’s do one last update on shortstops and second basemen around the league. We’re still playing 2010 ball, for another couple of weeks at least.

Ryan Raburn, Tigers (57% owned)
There’s probably no better way to inject some power into your shallow league middle infield than picking up Ryan Raburn and sticking him at second base. His current .207 ISO is impressive for a second baseman (qualifying second basemen average a .1396 ISO this year), and not far off of his career pace (.196). It looks sustainable, if only because he is again hitting most of his balls in the air (46% this year, 47.7% last year, 44% career). He’s also steadily cut down on his infield fly balls (8.6% this year, 12.1% career). He’s a flawed player – he strikes out too much (24.3% this year, 25.2% career) to really put up a nice batting average, and his UZR/150 at second base (-27.4) suggests that he’s no long-term solution at the position. But right here, right now, watching your league slip away from you – Raburn can give your team a short-term power boost at a tough position.

Jose Lopez, Mariners (37% owned)
You hit three home runs in one (major league) game and you’ll get a writeup in this space too. The amazing thing about how bad his season has been is that even with that outburst, he’s hitting .200/.218/.347 in September and .237/.267/.337 on the year. At least he’s predictable. Lopez has now had five seasons with below-average power and his career ISO (.134) is also sub-par. Because he also doesn’t walk (3.5% this year, 3.7% career), he’s left with one sole skill in his offensive bag of tricks (and it’s offensive for sure). He still doesn’t strike out (10.9% this year, 11.9% career). Also, his fielding is mostly rated as positive. But that’s not enough to start on a good team, so either Lopez will be starting for a bad team next year, or he’ll be a backup. For now, pick him up at your own peril. Honestly, those 37% of Yahoo owners must include about 35% of owners that have checked out on the season.

David Eckstein, Padres (2% owned)
It’s nice to know that fantasy owners are 98% immune to the guile of the average local baseball columnist – and that Fire Joe Morgan came back for a day to remind us how bad sportswriting about Eckstein can be. Even though his proponents might say that his skills don’t translate on paper, there is one nice thing about playing Eckstein in the final weeks of your deep league, and it does show up in the boxscore (on paper). He doesn’t walk (5.4%) or strike out (7.7%). Sure, he doesn’t have any power (.062 ISO), but he’ll make the most use of his at-bats in the fantasy sense. Walks and strikeouts can be largely negative things when you are looking for batting average and batting average alone. Play Eckstein if you are looking for an average boost because he’ll get the most of his at-bats in a box score sense – and his grission level is off the charts, too. With Jerry Hairston Jr out for the year, he should play every day too.

So it looks like Dustin Pedroia might be out for the year now that his foot has remained sore. His owners are left crying into their caps, and looking for replacements. Since it’s normally time for a middle infield update anyway, this works out well. We’ll look at possible replacements based on the size of your league. The benchmarks come from Jeff Zimmerman’s article here.

Shallow Leagues (58% owned or less)
If you are lucky, Omar Infante (60% owned) will be out there for you. He is one of the better possibilities for replacing the little-bit-of-power, little-bit-of-speed thing that Pedroia had going, and he is also atop one of the better lineups in the National League. But Infante doesn’t quite hit our benchmark, so Alberto Callaspo (46% owned) has a little more pop than Asdrubal Cabrera (44% owned) and might therefore be a better replacement for the balding Boston ballplayer. Though neither has shown much power or speed this year, it’s Callaspo that has had the best power year (.156 ISO in 2009) between the two and Cabrera that has had the best speed year (5.9 speed score in 2009). Depending on your priorities, they make decent stop-gaps.

12-Team Leagues (26% owned or less)
The options on this level are Orlando Hudson and Ryan Raburn, and both have a little more power than the guys above. Raburn’s currently showing a .176 ISO and has a .186 career number in that category, so he’s the guy to pick up for power. With his strikeout rate (26.2% this year, 25.9% career), he probably won’t put up a Pedroia-an batting average, and his speed has declined from about average (5.1 in 2008, 5.0 is average) to below average (3.8 in 2010) in three years. Hudson will give you a decent batting average as he has been within spitting distance of his .282 career batting average in most years. Unfortunately, he’s in the midst of a four-year decline in his power and now owns a poor ISO (.118). While his speed score is still above average (5.6), he hasn’t cracked double-digit in steals since 2007. Either way, Hudson is the closer comp to the Boston second baseman.

20-Team Leagues (1% owned or less)
Yes, Blake DeWitt is playing every day and is atop a lineup, but he’s also owned in 3% of Yahoo leagues, doesn’t have much pop or speed, and that Cubs lineup isn’t anywhere close to the Red Sox lineup. Well, none of your options in leagues of this size will come close to Pedroia’s excellence, so let’s just get that out of the way. No, of the second basemen owned in 1% of leagues (or less), it’s Chris Getz that is the most interesting. He’s mostly wrested the second base job away from Mike Aviles, but he’s just about as flawed as the man he replaces (or worse). He has no power to speak of (.040 ISO this year, .069 career, .150 ISO is average), and now that he’s 641 plate appearances into his career and showing the same walk rate every year (7.8% this year, 7.3% career), we can say he doesn’t really get on base at an average rate (8.5% walk rate is average this year). Well, he does do one thing. His speed score has stayed above average every year and is decent this year (5.5). He has some wheels. His 13 stolen bases (87% success rate) even means that he could equal a fictionally healthy Pedroia the rest of the way in one category. Unfortunately for deep league owners, it’s just one category.

Some notes on three first baseman to start your Tuesday.

Carlos Delgado | Red Sox | 1% Owned

Recently signed by the Red Sox, Delgado has already had a setback while playing for Triple-A Pawtucket. He had some stiffness in his back during Sunday’s game, leaving the game after only three innings. The 38-year old has only had fifteen trips to the plate in the minors, so we can’t judge how his bat looks. He has also admitted to his surgically repaired hip being sore, so he is going to need some things to go right for him to make it to the big leagues before sometime in mid-September. For those of you who stashed him when he signed with the Red Sox, he’s not going to be worth the trouble.

Mitch Moreland | Rangers | 0% Owned

After Chris Davis struggled (once again) in the majors, the Rangers turned to their next young first baseman. Rated as the Rangers seventh best prospect by both Marc Hulet and John Sickels, Moreland excelled in Triple-A while playing first base and right field. Just like he’s shown in 43 major league plate appearances, he won’t give you a ton of power, but will reach base at a good clip and smack line drives all over the field. He’s worth a pickup in AL-only leagues, and is a good option in keeper leagues.

Ryan Raburn | Tigers | 4% Owned

Raburn put up huge power numbers last year, but has fallen back down to earth this year. He’s caught fire in August, hitting four homers in 14 games, but his decision to hit fly balls in an attempt to hit home runs will end up killing his batting average. His second base and outfield eligibility helps his value, and he’s worth a shot in AL-only leagues if you are looking for some power.