Kicking Rocks: False Positives
My wife was late last week. Not late for dinner late, but late late. To subdue the paranoia, it was a quick trip to the drug store and back home for her to pee on the stick. We sit and wait. Can’t be, can she? Apologies to my Catholic readers, but she’s on the pill. We couldn’t possibly be part of that unlucky 2% could we? We look and see a plus sign. That can’t be good. It’s not. I hand her another one. This time it looks negative but there’s some coloration that still makes us nervous. Rather than reach for the nearest coat hanger, I make her a doctor’s appointment and luck out with an 8am opening the next day. She goes in, the doctor confirms a false positive and the bullet gets dodged. Phew!
Nothing worse than a false positive, no matter where it occurs in life. It either leads with massive anxiety or it ends with utter disappointment. In fantasy baseball, it’s usually the latter. You’re high on a particular player, whether it’s a stud or a sleeper, all signs point to a great season, and then BAM!! Like a swift kick to the groin you’ve got an epic failure on your hands.
Take Carlos Gomez for example…
Gomez was a highly touted prospect in the Mets system and was actually one of the key components that the Twins insisted upon in the Johan Santana trade. However, he never really blossomed in Minnesota and they quickly grew tired of his low average and abysmal OBP. He landed with the Brewers last year and had a pretty mediocre season but he still wasn’t drawing walks or getting on base often enough. While the 18 SBs made him a very low budget option for cheap speed he still wasn’t living up to his potential.
But suddenly, things started to click for the 25 year old this year. He went down to play winter ball in the Dominican Republic and after 19 games, he was sporting a .364 OBP and a much improved 9.5 BB%. He was striking out too much, but the team seemed happy enough with the overall performance that they had no trouble parting with their center fielder of the future, Lorenzo Cain, to acquire Zack Greinke.
So in walked Gomez this spring with starting job in hand and a mindset hell-bent on proving the naysayers wrong. In 63 at bats, he posted a slash line of .333/.344/.667 and while he wasn’t drawing walks, he also wasn’t striking out. Only 8 to be precise — 12.7 K%. He also popped a few HR, swiped a few bags, and was looking like a great late round sleeper option. It was all finally coming together for him and that fantasy pee had plus sign written all over it.
So I waited a little in a couple of my drafts and didn’t go after one of the top burners out there. I built up my roster with guys who contributed to the category, but no one that dominated. That was going to be saved for my late round Gomez pick.
Then what happens? The Brewers go out and trade for stupid Nyjer Morgan! What’s that all about? I know they were covering themselves for Corey Hart’s injury, but there’s been plenty of chatter about Morgan moving over to center once Hart comes back. Enough talk that it put Gomez into a tailspin to start the season as he’s currently sporting a .212/.247/.333 slash line with a dismal 27.4 K%. Kid’s all wrapped up in his head now waiting for the day that he gets told that he’s going to start riding the pine in favor of a head case like Morgan. Sure, manager Ron Roenicke gave him a little vote of confidence, but the handwriting is already on the wall.
What’s worse is that I’ve also fallen to the bottom in the SB category in the roto leagues in which I own him and might be forced into trading for one of the top SB guys. I know it’s early still, but without someone consistently swiping bags like I was hoping Gomez would do, it’s going to be very difficult to catch up without sacrificing more than I’d like, even this early in the year.
And how about a couple of false positives on Ryan Raburn and Sean Rodriguez? Nothing worse than when a manager gives no thought to how he’s screwing over fantasy owners everywhere, right? Both players got some well deserved hype during the off season and now each of them is stuck in a ridiculous platoon situation and fighting for at bats.
Raburn was all over everybody’s radar this spring with his starting job in left field and his second base eligibility. He had solid years in 2009 and 2010 and was finally primed for a starting gig. Everyone, including myself in one league, drafted him as a second baseman and was expecting 15+ HR with an average somewhere in the .290 range. Big plus sign. But then Brennan Boesch had himself a strong spring and now suddenly he’s Jim Leyland’s guy against right-handers with Raburn getting work against southpaws? Are you kidding me? Boesch started off the season strong but is actually now 1 for his last 14 with 4 strikeouts and yet he’s still getting playing time.
Ugh. And what’s up with S-Rod? Did he sleep with Joe Maddon’s daughter or something? When the Rays lost Jason Bartlett to free agency, the infield was supposed to have Reid Brignac taking over at short, Ben Zobrist was going to man right field because Matt Joyce stinks, and Rodriguez was going to be playing second full time. Then one day, of course after my draft, Maddon starts talking about using Rodriguez only against lefties. Maybe he’ll get some extra work in against some right handed pitching, but nothing is planned. Seriously? Even when Evan Longoria went down and they were going to use Rodriguez regularly at third, Maddon couldn’t seem to stomach it for some reason. Now he’s platooning over there with Felipe Lopez and the likelihood of him getting regular PT is rapidly dwindling; atleast for as long as he sits in Maddon’s doghouse.
These are deep leagues people! You know how difficult it is to patch up your second base position in a deep league. These guys are killing me! Their managers are killing me! Couple that with the Gomez situation in Milwaukee and I’m ready for a fantasy vasectomy. These false positives are going to drive me to drink….more.
Got some of your own? Let’s hear ’em…
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over 10 years on a variety of websites. In addition to his work here, you can also find him at his site, RotobuzzGuy.com, Fantasy Alarm, RotoWire and Mock Draft Central. Follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for more direct questions or comments, email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com
I feel you. I got Joyce on my team. Having platoon players like Boesch and Raburn isn’t all the bad. At least they produce when they are in the lineup. You just have to get a nice backup, everyday player to start when they can’t.
How about a couple of false negative positives? Ones who are supposed to regress badly yet they continue to baffle the numbers and do very well. Happ and Myers for the Astros still get it done; maybe the regression hawks who believe those numbers are the same proponents for Buerhle being a HOF pitcher.
how about this one: drafted manny ramirez and ryan raburn. that one didn’t turn out too well for me…
Anyone banking on anything from Gomez deserves what he gets. He’s not a major league ballplayer.
/agree. Shame on you for building a team around Carlos Gomez
Carlos Gomez put up 4.3 WAR from 2008-2010. That’s higher than Kubel, Cuddyer, and Delmon.
hanger abortion joke FTW
Good grief, doesn’t anyone read this stuff before you publish it?
“We couldn’t possibly be part of that unlucky 2% could we?”
You mean The Unlucky Extra 2% (apologies to Jonah Keri.)
Is Matt Joyce worse than Zobrist/S-Rod? Against lefties, yes. Against righties though…
Matt Joyce stinks?!?!
He provided 1.9 WAR in just over 200 ABs last year! He OPS-ed over .900 last year against RHP! He has had a handful of ABs this year! Let’s not draw conclusions yet!
I had Utley as a keeper, and all the talk early in the season about when he’ll be ready made me really messed up as to what to do with my 2b position.
In the end, with all the talk about how Jose Lopez is due for a huge bounceback season because of his age, going to coors, etc… made me think, I’ll get lopez kinda late, stick him in a utility position here and there for a couple of weeks, until he picks up his 2b elligibility.
too bad, he had a few games, harrera has taken over, and i’m still patching up my 2b position, still waiting…
another was all the michael young trade talk, got me to draft Napoli in the mid rounds, hoping for 30hrs with a full season of playing…
that obviously hasn’t happen yet…
Oh yeah, Napoli is killing me. I guess a 9th round pick on a catcher receiving 50% playing time wasn’t the best choice in the world, but I *was* relying on his second-tier ranking in the 2011 Catcher Rankings.
The abortion coat hanger joke . . . I could really do without that. It’s a pretty devastating issue for a lot of people.
I know it’s a huge issue for me. I found it helps if you bend a little hook into the hanger.
I agree–pretty poor taste, at an absolute minimum. You’re either talking about killing an unborn child, or a very difficult decision for a woman.
I think poor taste is important to protect a bit. People get so riled up, and we don’t want Poor Taste Police. But it’s just not the kind of joke I would want to see, and not the kind of site I would go to, if it was at all a regular type of joke.
Just depends on what kind of place this site wants to think of itself as.
Shut it. You don’t want to be the “Taste Police”, but here you are being the Taste Police. Irony!
If you don’t like the article or can’t get past the jokes, there are many other fantasy sites out there you can go to.
Meanwhile, let us less-easily offended adults get back to enjoying the the program.
Nyjer Morgan was a SMART pickup by the Brewers. He’s at least proven he can hit at the major league level. Gomez belongs in the minors.
This is not coming from a conservative, and in fact I write it as a progressive…
The crass description of the pregnancy test and reference to coat hanger abortion was misogynistic and disrespectful to readers of either gender.
Keep pretending your an enlightened, intelligent guy because you champion cutting-edge baseball statistics while your wife files for divorce.
Really? This is what passes for an article on Fangraphs these days? Where to begin… where to begin…
Oh come on.
Jesus, they’re just crawling out of the woodwork, eh? Save your bile, Mr. Progressive. If you don’t like the site or the articles on it, move along to something more your taste. Perhaps Sesame Street will delight you with its non-misogynistic content.
Seriously, people put their own taste and values on WAAAYYYY too high a pedestal.
If the original post had racist references, you wouldn’t say it was just a matter of one’s own “taste.” You’d say it was a nasty piece of work. While abortion isn’t the same as race (because there are two legitimate sides to take on the abortion debate), the stakes are of a similar caliber as racism. It’s a grave and painful enough issue that reasonable people could reasonably find jokes like the above grotesque.
As for your continual suggestions that people who found the joke really nasty should just move elsewhere–well, there’s exit, and then there’s voice, and I prefer to stick around and enjoy the site, while marking this single (single!) issue as troublesome. It’s not like people have been rampaging through the site imposing fascist law. More ironically, your responses (“shut it”, ad hominems, and trying to run people out) have been far more discourteous than the people you’re attacking as whiny and self-righteous.
This url has had pretty disappointing juju overall. I really expected more from the writers and the community.
I don’t understand why SRod was so hyped this year. He flashed a ton of power in the minor leagues yeah, but in the bigs last year he posted a .397 slg, and for a guy who’s power is his only trick, that should have been the end of it. But no, he’s back this year and even worse people expected him to have a starting job?! please, he’s ww fodder at best.
Dude, nice story, garza, garrett jones, teix, are all right now making me feel more like using the hanger on self for there slow starts,
Really? You got something against Teixeira’s 5 home runs and 14 RBIs in 13 games? What upside-down universe you livin’ in?
I’m pretty sure if you are going to apologize to Catholics it should be for the abortion joke, not her being on the pill.
He should also apologize to the Amish for using a computer powered by electricity to post this article.
some of you guys need to sort out your issues, this an uber fantasy stat geek site (and i love it) but, get off your moral pedestal because no one here cares.
…at least add some cool stats to your whining if you must complain
No one’s whining. Where’s the whine? Your main point is: this is a stats site. I fully agree. Thus, a poorly thought out analogy on an extraordinarily controversial topic is a bit…off topic. Especially when the analogy is handled with a sensitivity so astronomically out of proportion to the gravity of the joke’s subject matter.
One doesn’t need to be on a moral pedestal to say that it’s a bit dodgy to compare the issue of abortion to a slow start in fantasy baseball. Or, it’s a pretty damn low pedestal. That’s an invitation to step on up.
As you say, no one here cares, indeed. That suggests that joking about this devastating topic is just useless and tasteless, rather than that those who object “need to sort out [their] issues.”
Imagine the typical picture of a fetus, pink and floating, at whatever level of development you like. The idea of comparing the survival of this entity to fantasy baseball–whatever one’s position on abortion–just seems so out of whack, so poorly judged, so juvenile and immature, that everyone should feel antsy reading the post. I don’t want a world where people just read on by, failing to note the moral weirdness of the comparison. Such a world would have a slashline like Tony Pena Jr’s. There’s your cool stat.
Oh, I detect a fair bit of whine there. The ol’ “I don’t want to live in a world where people do ‘x’ because I’m opposed to ‘x'” line. Yeah, I consider that whining.
Get over yourself. Realize that there’re 6 billion plus other souls out there who all have their own opinions, tastes and values. They may not necessarily match yours. Tragic, I know, since you are the All-Enlightened One, but there it is.
And realize that humor, by it’s very nature, is absurdist. I am certain the author doesn’t REALLY think back-alley abortions are equivalent to fantasy basebll in any way, shape or form. You’d have to have your humor appendix removed in order to believe something like that. Maybe that’s what happened to you.
I don’t think Carlos Gomez is sucking because the Brewers brought in Nyjer Morgan. I think he’s sucking because he… uh… (wait for it)… SUCKS!
Yes, he can steal you a few bases, but he’ll rape you in the other cats (oh damn, there I go bein’ all misogynistic!). Do you want to be raped in the other cats? No, you don’t.
But there was nothing wrong with taking him on a late flier. Players *do* get better on occasion (paging Alex Gordon, please answer the “I finally learned how to hit in the major leagues” phone).
The problem with your draft strategy was putting all your stolen eggs in a basket in the backseat of a car driven by Carlos Gomez. That car is by the side of the road now, radiator busted and pissing steam like a locomotive and your stolen eggs are rotting in the back seat.
I drafted Manny Ramirez this year, not quite the same situation but similar enough. With my high-upside, high injury risk lineup, I’m having difficulty filling that spot. So far Coco Crisp has at least been grabbing me some steals in Manny’s stead…