When you write a fantasy baseball column that recommends players, your number one priority is accuracy. You can make all the suggestions you want, but if you’re making bad calls, no one is going to listen to your advice. And even if you do happen to get one right eventually, there’s always someone out there to tell you that even a blind squirrel eventually finds a nut. You need to know what you’re talking about.
This is more of a Kicking Rocks sort of piece, but it’s Memorial Day Weekend, so let’s have some fun…
Perhaps the title is a bit inflammatory. In all likelihood, Russell Branyan has no idea who you are and couldn’t care less about who’s on your fantasy team or where you are in your standings. He’s just a guy out there trying to make a living playing a game that he loves. But in the spirit of being a mock GM and the need to release some of our angst and frustration with hopes of giving the bleeding ulcer a rest, we vent about players as if we’ve known them for years and that their negative performances are actually stemming from some sort of a personal attack. That being said, I would like to share my deep-seeded hate for the 35 year old Branyan and the fact that he does everything in his power to ruin my fantasy seasons. Read the rest of this entry »
The night before Opening Day makes me feel like an 8 year old kid on Christmas Eve, staring at a mountain of presents sitting under the tree waiting to be torn into the next morning. That one’s definitely an Xbox, those are the video games, and somewhere in that pile is definitely a new baseball glove. Then morning comes and with unbridled excitement I rush to the pile and start ripping paper with a fury like no other. Socks and underwear? A sweater? These aren’t video games, they’re books. And who the hell gives an 8 year old a stationery set and thank you cards? I got rolled on Christmas morning!!
Well, that’s what’s going on now for many of us as we look over our rosters that we were absolutely gushing over as recently as last week. Suddenly you see a bunch of red crosses next to the names, platoon situations are being discussed, and statuses are being changed from “active” to “minors”. I know that Opening Day is supposed to be a day filled with excitement and fresh starts, but now it just feels like the fantasy gods have come down and kicked me in the groin….twice. Here’s what I’m bitching about: Read the rest of this entry »
On Friday, Diamondbacks manager Kirk Gibson announced that Russell Branyan has made the club’s Opening Day roster. Branyan’s ultimate role has yet to be determined — his own physical limitations, Juan Miranda‘s presence on the roster and Xavier Nady’s arm strength could affect his playing time — but if you’re looking for cheap pop, Branyan is your man.
Right off the bat, I’ll tell you…bargain shopping for first basemen is a risky way of running your team. In fact, I don’t recommend it at all. Real success is found in the premier mashers, and I always recommend you draft at least one. But if your league uses a corner infielder and/or a DH/utility slot, then picking up a super cheap first baseman can turn into a very economical boost in offensive production. Read the rest of this entry »
Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:
Russell Branyan – Seattle Mariners (owned in 7% of Yahoo! leagues)
Branyan returns to the place where he enjoyed the most success in his MLB career, having hit 31 HR for the Mariners last year. Seattle was receiving such poor production from its first basemen that they had played Josh Wilson, a shortstop, there for a few games before re-acquiring Branyan. His HR/FB rate is down from a year ago, but still a solid 17.5 percent. Any club looking for power should look in Branyan’s direction.
Seth Smith – Colorado Rockies (owned in 5% of Yahoo! leagues)
He may only be a platoon player, but Smith crushes RHP. He has a .289/.353/.572 line against righties in 170 PA. Smith has 10 HR in 181 ABs. His 13.9 HR/FB rate is right in line with what he’s done the past two seasons but he is hitting more fly balls. Smith’s FB% is at 45.9%, up from 41.6 a year ago and 34.1 percent in his rookie season. It is amazing he is available in most leagues. Do not be scared by his platoon-status. Even if you play in a league with weekly transactions, he should be a valuable player even if he only plays 4-5 times a week.
Jose Tabata – Pittsburgh Pirates (owned in 3% of Yahoo! leagues)
We have heard about the former Yankees prospect for a long time, but he is still just 21-years old. Tabata has been installed as the Pirates’ leadoff hitter and he should have an opportunity to pick up a bunch of SB. He has been successful on all four of his steal attempts in his first 16 games. While owners should believe in his speed, do not expect much power from Tabata this season. So, the make or break for him in 2010 will be his AVG. So far, he has a .258 AVG on a .291 BABIP. While it would be nice to see more production in the AVG category, he has an acceptable walk rate (8.3%) so he is still setting himself up for steal chances. There is no (R) ZiPS to compare but if Tabata can stay healthy he has a good shot to clear 20 SB the rest of the way.
Seattle Mariners acquired 1B/DH Russell Branyan from the Cleveland Indians for OF Ezequiel Carrera and SS Juan Diaz. Cleveland will either pay what’s left of Branyan’s $2 million salary or send the M’s a PTBNL.
Branyan wasn’t acquired as part of some last-ditch effort to climb back into the AL West race — the Mariners are 14 games back of Texas and have a 0.2 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to CoolStandings.com. Rather, Seattle brought the 34-year-old slugger back, in GM Jack Zduriencik’s words, “to give our team every opportunity to be as productive as possible this season, while not harming the long-term plan for the franchise.” Collectively, Mariners first basemen have a major league-worst .260 wOBA in 2010.
Last year, Branyan turned in the best season of his career in the Pacific Northwest. Getting regular playing time, the lefty batter mashed to the tune of .251/.347/.520 in 505 plate appearances and compiled 2.8 WAR. His wOBA was .368, and his park-and-league-adjusted wOBA was 29 percent above average (129 wRC+). Unfortunately, a bulging disk in Branyan’s back ended his season in late August.
He signed a one-year deal with the Indians this past winter, with a $5 million mutual option for the 2011 season. Branyan began the year on the DL with continued back woes, but he has hit slightly above expectations since returning to the lineup in late April. He’s got a .263/.328/.491 line in 190 PA, with a .355 wOBA and a 122 wRC+ (CHONE and ZiPS both projected a .348 wOBA and a 113 wRC+ prior to the start of the season).
Now that Cleveland has said see you in another life, brotha to Branyan for a fourth time, first base is Matt LaPorta’s spot to lose. The seventh overall selection in the ’07 draft, LaPorta was supposed to be the Tribe’s big prize in the July 2008 CC Sabathia deal. However, LaPorta’s monstrous minor league line (.296/.390/.563, 10.7 BB%, .267 ISO) has given way to a disastrous .240/.301/.377 (.300 wOBA) showing in 300 big league PA over the 2009-2010 seasons. LaPorta was slowed by off-season surgeries on his left hip and left toe, but his power was MIA prior to an early June demotion to Columbus. His career ISO is .137.
It’s just 300 PA split over two years, so we shouldn’t let a half-season’s worth of trips to the plate serve as some definitive judgment of LaPorta’s abilities. Still, his rest-of-season ZiPS (.257/.329/.414, .331 wOBA) is thoroughly uninspiring. He’s in his mid-twenties and down the defensive spectrum. LaPorta will need to significantly outperform that projection to be a useful starter, much less a star.
In addition to giving an erstwhile top prospect a shot at redemption, shipping out Branyan netted the Indians Carrera and Diaz. Carrera, 23, was part of the December ’08 three-team extravaganza involving the Mets (his original club), M’s and Indians. The lithe lefty batter ranked as the 15th-best talent in the Mariners’ system prior to 2010, per Baseball America. The Venezuelan-born Carrera piqued the interest of prospect types last season by batting .337/.441/.416 in the Double-A Southern League. He didn’t show much power (.079 ISO), and his BABIP was .407. But even so, he worked the count very well (14.6 BB%) while earning praise for his center field defense.
Moved up to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League in 2010, Carrera has a .268/.339/.315 triple-slash in 243 PA. Perhaps with pitchers realizing that the worst outcome of giving Carrera a pitch in the zone is a seeing-eye single (.047 ISO), his walk rate has fallen to 8.2%. Odds are, Carrera carves out a career as an extra outfielder who can cover the gaps. His fantasy value might be zilch, though — while he swiped twenty-plus bags each season from 2006-2009, Carrera’s career SB success rate is just 68.9%.
Diaz, 21, is shortstop signed by the M’s out of the Dominican Republic in 2006. The 6-3, 180 pound switch-hitter has put together a .299/.347/.434 line at high-octane High Desert of the High-A California League over the past two years. He didn’t rate among Seattle’s top 30 prospects leading up to 2010.
Ian Desmond, Washington Nationals
The 24 year-old Desmond was recently named Washington’s starting shortstop, overtaking $8 million man Cristian Guzman. Though the club said it wasn’t a factor, Guzman (who missed time with a shoulder injury last September and this spring) has struggled to unleash throws from deep in the hole.
A third round pick in the 2004 draft, Desmond had a big year at the plate in 2009. He missed two months following surgery to remove the hamate bone in his left hand, but he hit a combined .330/.401/.477 between Double-A and Triple-A. A near-.400 BABIP helped him tremendously, though he did do a better job of working the count (9.1 percent walk rate). In a late-season stint with the Nationals, Desmond posted a .372 wOBA in 89 plate appearances. What do the projection systems say about him?
CHONE: .265/.326/.412, .324 wOBA
ZiPS: .270/.334/.388, .325 wOBA
FANS: .278/.335/.412, .330 wOBA
Desmond should be about a league-average hitter in 2010. At shortstop, that’s useful in NL-only leagues. For more on Desmond, see Dan Budreika’s breakdown and Marc Hulet’s Top 10 Nationals prospects list.
Franklin Morales, Colorado Rockies
Huston Street (shoulder) will start the season on the DL, giving Morales the chance to rack up some saves in the early going.
As a starter in the minors, the 24 year-old lefty whiffed a batter per inning but walked a whopping 5.2 batters per nine frames. At the Triple-A level, Morales had 7.3 K/9 and 6.1 BB/9 in 168.2 innings. Shifted to the bullpen in 2009, he posted a 4.72 xFIP with 9.23 K/9 and 5.18 BB/9 in 40 innings.
At this point, Morales tries to overpower hitters with 92-93 MPH heat while hoping for enough weak swings to compensate for a lack of secondary stuff and control. Morales’ fastball has been a plus pitch in the majors (+0.57 runs/100 pitches), and he gets plenty of swings and misses: his fastball had an 8.4 percent whiff rate last year, compared to the six percent MLB average. However, his low-70’s curveball (-1.13) and high-70’s changeup (-0.66) lag behind, and his first pitch strike percentage in the bigs is just 50.9 percent (58 percent MLB average).
Though he’s far from a finished product, Morales is well worth picking up in all formats.
Jeff Clement, Pittsburgh Pirates
Clement was once considered a franchise building block in Seattle as a catcher with ample lefty pop. Now, he’s a 26 year-old first baseman aspiring to be the next Adam LaRoche in Pittsburgh. Though he has struggled in limited major league playing time (.237/.309/.393 in 243 PA), Clement has a career .279/.368/.492 line at the Triple-A level.
Problem is, that’s yawn-inducing now that he has fallen down the defensive spectrum. CHONE and ZiPS both project a .265/.340/.460-type season for Clement in 2010. That’s not bad, but consider that the average MLB first baseman socked to the tune of a .277/.362/.483 triple-slash in 2009. Clement will open the year as Pittsburgh’s starting first baseman, and he could have a little value in NL-only leagues. But he’ll have to mash to keep his spot.
Tom Gorzelanny, Chicago Cubs
The former Pirates prospect looked cooked in 2008, but his stuff bounced back in ’09 as he pitched well in seven starts and 15 relief appearances (3.73 xFIP). Gorzo has punched out 8.6 batters per nine innings with 2.5 BB/9 in Triple-A, and both CHONE and ZiPS figure that he’ll be a handy starter for the Cubs in 2010:
CHONE: 7.39 K/9, 3.61 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, 4.43 FIP
ZiPS: 7.25 K/9, 3.74 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, 4.25 FIP
His rotation spot isn’t guaranteed once Ted Lilly returns, but Gorzelanny has the talent to remain in the starting five and provide value in NL-only leagues.
(Jason Heyward is an obvious candidate here, but we examined his fantasy value a few days ago.)
Russell Branyan, Cleveland Indians
The Three True Outcomes nomad will start the season on the DL with a herniated disk in his back. Branyan isn’t likely to match last year’s .368 wOBA with the M’s (most projection systems have him regressing to the .350 range), and a balky back won’t help his chances.
On a positive note, CC Sabathia trade goodies Michael Brantley (left field) and Matt LaPorta (first base) will open the year in the starting lineup. Brantley offers a keen eye and high-percentage base thievery (46 SB in 51 tries at Triple-A last year), and LaPorta can put a charge into the ball (career .266 ISO in the minors).
Dustin McGowan, Toronto Blue Jays
When healthy, McGowan has been a quality starter (career 4.28 xFIP). But the 28 year-old hasn’t tossed a major league pitch since July of 2008 following shoulder surgery. He was recently shut down, so it doesn’t look like McGowan is particularly close to pumping mid-90’s heat and upper-80’s breaking stuff like he used to.
Melky Cabrera, Atlanta Braves
Fantasy players aren’t going to cry over spilled Melky, not with Heyward getting a chance to shine in right field. But with the best hitting prospect in the game making the squad, Cabrera goes from a possible sleeper in NL-only leagues (CHONE projects a .358 wOBA) to a part-time player who will share left field with Matt Diaz.
Minnesota’s closer-by-committee
With Joe Nathan (Tommy John surgery) sidelined in 2010, Twins skipper Ron Gardenhire plans to enter 2010 with a closer-by-committee approach. That means Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares and Jesse Crain could all get a shot at the ninth. Any owner who drafted Nathan, watched his elbow go boom and then picked up Rauch looking to recoup some value is probably getting all twitchy while reading this.
According to Buster Olney of ESPN, free agent first baseman Russell Branyan has inked a one-year, $2 million contract with the Cleveland Indians, which includes $1 million in performance incentives. The pact also has a $5 million mutual option for 2011.
Long a stat-head favorite for his prodigious power, keen eye and lack of playing time, Branyan comes full-circle by returning to the team that originally drafted him back in 1994. The 34 year-old has a career 114 wRC+, with a twelve percent walk rate and a .257 Isolated Power. But because he does something aesthetically displeasing (strike out) a ton, and has some issues with lefties (though he’s not terrible against them), Branyan has been traded five times and released twice. He’s been to Cleveland, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Tampa Bay, San Diego, Philadelphia, St. Louis and Seattle. He’s been everywhere, man.
Prior to the 2009 season, the lefty thumper signed a modest one-year contract with the Mariners. He cracked the 500 plate appearance mark for the first time in his career, batting .251/.347/.520 with 31 bombs and a 129 wRC+. Unfortunately, a herniated disk in his lower back ended his season in late August.
CHONE projects Branyan to hit .243/.335/.497 next year, with a 121 wRC+. Just how he fits into Cleveland’s plans remains to be seen, however. Branyan has experience playing all of the corner spots on the field, but he hasn’t played third base since 2008 and hasn’t roamed the outfield since 2007. Given the back ailment, he’s almost surely a first baseman only, while spotting for Travis Hafner at DH from time to time.
That opens up a couple of questions. Namely, what does Branyan’s signing meaning for Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley?
LaPorta (projected by CHONE for a 112 wRC+) has a big bat, but also has limited range and underwent hip and toe surgeries during the off-season. The Branyan deal could mean that LaPorta isn’t fully mended. Or, it could indicate that the Indians are still giving consideration to having LaPorta patrol left field next season (his Total Zone numbers in the minors suggest he’d be a liability). In that case, Brantley (projected 98 wRC+, with 26 SB) would have an uncertain role with the club.
There are many moving parts here. Pay close attention to Cleveland’s plans for Branyan, LaPorta and Brantley leading up to draft day. Given Hafner’s shoulder and Branyan’s back, there could be enough playing time for all of these guys to remain fantasy relevant.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Since it is turkey day, I figured I’d give thanks to things throughout the fantasy world from last season and the upcoming one.
I’m thankful for…Brandon Webb getting hurt last year. Even though it ruined one of my teams, he will slip past his healthy value allowing owners to snatch him up and hope he’s healthy.
I’m thankful for…Victor Martinez being traded to the Red Sox. With a good lineup around him, it’s hard to imagine the RBI numbers that might show up in the box score next season. If they can add a decent hitting corner infielder, it will be even better.
I’m thankful for…Russell Branyan’s back issues. It may seem cruel that I’m happy about players are getting hurt, but it’s hard not to be. His back slowed him for a couple months, bringing his total numbers down and forcing owners to forget about his hot start a bit. While he won’t be a sleeper again, he may go a round or two later than he should.
I’m thankful for…Luke Scott. Scott’s power streak after coming off of an injury carried my team for a couple weeks. Not bad for a waiver wire pickup.
I’m thankful for…Ryan Franklin’s beard, and saves. Owners will ignore the fluky BABIP and lack of K’s and draft him far too early next year. I’m staying away, thank you very much (see what I did there?).
I’m thankful for…B.J. Upton’s bad 2009. He won’t hit .241 again, I promise. Because he still stole 42 bases, he won’t have sleeper status, but he will be undervalued.
I’m thankful for…Nick Johnson’s healthy ’09. I had Johnson in an OBP league, hoping he’d stay healthy and for once he did. Interested to see where he lands in free agency.
I’m thankful for…Mark Reynolds‘ low batting average. Someone is going to say “no thanks” when they glance at his .260 avg, but I’m more than happy with 40+ jacks and 20+ steals from my third baseman.
I’m thankful for…Curtis Granderson’s struggles against southpaws. Like Reynolds, Grandy’s .249 avg is going to scare other owners off. Dig deeper, and you’ll see he hit .275/.358/.539 with 28 of his 30 homers against right handers. If you’re smart enough to check your matchups and only play Grandy versus righties, he’s extremely valuable.
All that being said, what are you thankful for?