Bullpen Report: August 13, 2018

The past week saw several closing situations change hands. Are we on the verge of seeing another one flip?

Some fantasy owners have been anticipating a change of closer with the Astros, but only because they traded for Roberto Osuna. Hector Rondon has held off Osuna so far, and even after allowing Ryon Healy’s game-tying homer on Sunday, he hasn’t done anything that would seem to merit a demotion to a setup role. He did give up four runs to the Rangers in a non-save situation just over two weeks ago, but until Sunday that had been the only real blemish on Rondon’s stat line over the past month. In his eight other appearances, he had shut out the opposition over 8.1 innings on just two hits and two walks.

Yet since July 13, Rondon has been an entirely different pitcher than he had been previously. Over the total of 10.1 innings Rondon has pitched over the past month, he has posted a 7.1 percent swinging strike rate, which is less than half of the 15.4 percent rate he compiled over his first 33.1 innings this season. Part of the reason he is getting fewer whiffs is that he has generated swings at a 43.4 percent rate during the past month, which is nearly seven percentage points below his previous rate. While that means Rondon is getting more called strikes, it also means he is not getting many chases on pitches outside of the strike zone (21.1 percent O-Swing%).

These changes coincide with a slider usage rate that has…um…slid. Prior to July 13, he was throwing his slider at a 39.8 percent rate, but since, he has thrown it only 28.6 percent of the time. His slider is also not sliding as much, as he has averaged 3.24 inches of horizontal movement over the past month, as compared to 3.91 inches beforehand (per Brooks Baseball). As the graph below shows, Rondon’s slider movement has varied from game to game, but both his peaks and troughs are lower than they had been before this recent stretch.

For what it’s worth, Osuna did not fare any better than Rondon on Sunday, giving up Mitch Haniger’s game-winning RBI double in the 10th inning, but Rondon’s owners should be viewing future performances with a wary eye. As he has become more contact-friendly, his margin for error has shrunk considerably.

Meanwhile in Toronto, Ken Giles recorded his first save with the Blue Jays. He tossed a perfect ninth inning to preserve a 2-1 win over the Rays. Though it was the first time in five games that the former Astros closer pitched a 1-2-3 inning for his new team, he appears to have the closer’s role all to himself for the time being.

After blowing a save against the Cubs in spectacular fashion, Ryan Madson gets the “Not Very Stable” tag in the closer grid, but it has more to do with his post-game comments than his in-game performance. Madson was handed a 3-0 lead to start off the bottom of the ninth, but Wilmer Difo’s bobble of a Jason Heyward grounder and a plunking of Albert Almora Jr. put him in danger of losing the lead. He was one strike away from getting out of the jam, but Madson’s 2-2 curveball hit Willson Contreras to load the bases, and then pinch-hitter David Bote walked off with a grand slam. However, after the game, Madson admitted he has been dealing with a back issue, and when he was warming up, it caused pain to be referred down his leg.

Given what Madson was dealing with physically, it’s easy to see why he wasn’t himself on Sunday. He had been largely steady recently, holding opponents to a .514 OPS over his previous 11.1 innings, so if his back improves, there will be little reason to worry about Madson going forward. That’s a pretty big “if”, and now is the time to pick up Koda Glover, who would be Madson’s most likely successor, should he fail to rebound from Sunday’s performance.

Wade Davis also did not follow his recent trend on Sunday, but in his case, that was a good thing. After having allowed eight runs over his first 2.1 innings of August, Davis pitched a scoreless ninth inning against the Dodgers, allowing only one walk. That allowed the Rockies to keep the game knotted at 3-3, and they prevailed in the bottom of the inning, giving Davis his second win of the season.

After his most recent meltdown on Thursday, Davis made some “pretty easy fixes” to his delivery, which appeared to pay off on Sunday. With Adam Ottavino having pitched the eighth inning and Davis getting the ninth, Bud Black is sticking with the status quo. While Sunday’s performance was encouraging, it’s still best to avoid Davis until he can string together a few effective outings in a row.

Quick hits: Cody Allen was called upon to get the final two outs against the White Sox on Sunday. Dan Otero started the ninth inning but allowed four consecutive batters to reach base. Allen allowed two inherited runners to score but was credited with his second save in two days…Seth Lugo became the latest member of the Mets’ closer committee to earn a save, finishing out a 4-3 win over the Marlins. Jerry Blevins and Robert Gsellman notched the Mets’ two previous saves…With the activation of Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dave Roberts has moved Kenta Maeda and Ross Stripling to the Dodgers’ bullpen. Roberts plans on using Maeda in high-leverage situations, though he may fill a Josh Hader-type role, pitching as many as three inning in an appearance….Craig Kimbrel recorded his 35th save on Sunday, closing out a 4-1 win over the Orioles. It was his first appearance without a run so far in August, and all three outs came by way of a strikeout.