Archive for Rich Hill

I got a suggestion to write a column on my favorite starting pitchers to target (thanks @cwsoxfan!), but in truth, that column is sort of scattered all over the place. For example, my last post for RotoGraphs included some analysis on why I will be targeting Joe Musgrove. I’ve written about several pitchers I’m ranking above ADP and the industry consensus, such as Matthew Boyd, Carlos Rodon, Anibal Sanchez, Mike Minor and Jaime Barria, in other pieces.

Still, there are a number of starters whom I do like better than other fantasy owners do, including those in the industry, but I have yet to write about them to explain why. For this piece, I will focus on five starters who will likely be frequent targets for me, based on my rankings as compared to ADPs. These aren’t exactly sleepers, though. Rather than going deep in the motherlode for bargains, I’ll be taking a look at widely-owned players who could provide a generous return if you are able to draft them at or near their ADPs
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Pitch forks have emerged, and rage has exploded over the most recent Rich Hill trip to the disabled list – once again, for a blister. Hockey fans gearing up for the playoff run scoff, stating how their sport has players who take slap shots to the face and return in the same game – blisters? Those are a sign that baseball players are weak, pampered, and fragile. Why do blisters keep forming on Rich Hill’s fingers? What are the implications for changing his style that could prevent blisters from occurring all together? Why can’t Sidney Crosby grow a beard? Let’s get into the answers to these questions.

All of pitching revolves around applying the appropriate amount of pressure to specific areas at ball release, and causing the ball to spin about a certain axis. This pressure applied along the seams, generates friction, and spin on the ball. More friction? More spin. That’s why pitchers try the ol’ Icy Hot trick to get a better grip on the ball, and throw funkier pitches. Sorry if I got most of my pitching knowledge from Rookie of the Year – I flamed out as a player in High School.

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Yesterday, I wrote up Rich Hill’s 2016 season, declaring him The Leader of Baseball’s Movementarians. In researching the piece, I dove deep into Baseball Prospectus’ Pitchf/x leaderboards. I wanted to find out what makes Hill’s fastball so dominant, despite its unremarkable velocity, and his curveball so effective, given its unimpressive whiff rate. I’m not an expert in pitching mechanics. I can’t breakdown video or tell you much about grips. For that, talk to Eno. But I found that Hill enjoys two distinct advantages that make his (essentially) two-pitch arsenal play up.

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The leader is good, the leader is great. We surrender our will as of this date.

Rich Hill’s renaissance has been remarkable in so many ways. Despite justified skepticism entering 2016, he finished the season as the 14^th most valuable starting pitcher, according to our auction calculator. And he did so tossing just 110 innings over 20 starts. He made contributions in ERA, WHIP, and when he pitched, strikeouts, that were so substantial, that he ranked among the back end of #1 or the very best of #2 fantasy starters. And no intractable three-eyed blister with its own Instagram account could stand in his way.

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Happy Monday to you all!

Before we get to the injury updates, just a quick moment of introduction. I am an AT (athletic trainer — the sports medicine professionals you see tending to injuries at games/practices) and have been doing this in various roles since 1991 (yes, I’m old). Job stints include the St. Louis Cardinals organization, covering high school sports, working in orthopedic physician offices, rehabilitation, speed/strength/performance training, business owner & currently working for a medical device & bracing company.

It’s my intent to offer up not only the latest news about the players, but also to lend my insight & experience to what the injury actually is & what you might expect. To be asked to replace the great work of Jeff Zimmerman is a daunting task, and I wish to offer up appreciation and recognition to him for his work here. Best to you sir in your future endeavors. Now, let’s get to it.

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In Ottoneu, like any fantasy format, small sample sizes to begin the season drastically impact the standings. The team with the worst pitching in your league has probably allowed more homers than expected. While the team in last place has likely has pitched the fewest innings. It’s easy to blow off these types of starts due the unsustainable performances that aren’t likely to continue (or to front-loading innings). I thought it would be fun to take a different approach today. So let’s play a game…

The rules: Pick 5 SP, total salaries for this rotation of $30 or less based on Ottoneu average values (round up $1 dollar). No picks with an average salary over $12. Arbitrary limitations, I know.

The goal: Build a 5 man rotation assuming you can bank all points that have occurred thus far with the goal of accumulating the most Fangraphs points by seasons end. Let’s make some picks.

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St. Louis Cardinals signed LHP Rich Hill to a minor league contract.

The memories of Hill’s 2006 and 2007 seasons with the Chicago Cubs become hazier with each passing day. The 6-5 left-hander with the slow, looping curveball had a 4.51 xFIP in 99.1 innings during ’06, whiffing 8.15 batters per nine frames and walking 3.53 per nine. In Triple-A that year, he terrorized the PCL to the tune of 12.15 K/9, 1.89 BB/9 and a 1.67 FIP in 100 IP. 2007 was even better, as Hill logged 195 frames with the Cubs. He posted rates of 8.45 K/9 and 2.91 BB/9, with a 4.13 xFIP.

The University of Michigan product was an extreme fly ball hurler (34 GB% from 2006-2007), but his high-80’s heater had positive run values both seasons (+0.22 runs per 100 pitches in ’06, +0.66 in ’07), while his curve rated as -0.26 in ’06 and +0.53 in ’07.

Then, the wheels fell off. Hill scarcely pitched in 2008, as he was sidelined with back problems. He issued 18 free passes in 19.2 innings with Chicago, and walked 44 batters in 47.2 IP between Rookie Ball, High-A and Triple-A.

Shipped to the Orioles last February, Hill missed the first two months of the season with a left elbow strain and continued to have Blassian issues finding the strike zone. In 57.2 frames with Baltimore, Hill struck out 7.18 hitters per nine innings but walked an obscene 6.24 per nine. His xFIP was 5.69, as he tossed a first-pitch strike just 46.9 percent of the time (58-59% MLB average). That was the lowest rate among all big league pitchers throwing at least 50 innings. In August, Hill went under the knife to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder.

Thirty years old in March, Hill is now a broken, control-challenged project. He’s a long shot to contribute, but New Busch smiles upon fly ball-centric pitchers: per the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Busch has decreased homer production by 20 percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009, while deflating run scoring by seven percent.

Chicago Cubs signed INF Chad Tracy to a minor league contract.

The last time Tracy played regularly was 2006, when he turned in a 102 wRC+ with Arizona. Since then, the 29 year-old lefty batter has been injury-prone and ineffective. Tracy was placed on the DL with an oblique strain and right knee tendinitis in 2007. He had microfracture surgery in September of ’07, which sidelined him until May of 2008. This past year, Tracy again hit the DL with an oblique strain.

From 2007-2009, the erstwhile D-Back authored an 86 wRC+. For 2010, CHONE offers an 84 wRC+ projection, while the fans envision a 92 wRC+. Even if he cracks the 25-man roster this spring, Tracy doesn’t figure to see much playing time with the Cubs.

New York Yankees traded INF Mitch Hilligoss to the Texas Rangers for OF Greg Golson.

Golson’s really fast and….did I mention he’s fast? The 24 year-old was once a warmly regarded prospect in the Phillies’ system, but a fatal lack of strike zone control has wrecked his career prospects. Golson did swipe 20 bags in 24 attempts for Triple-A Oklahoma. Unfortunately the former first-rounder “batted” .258/.299/.344, walking 5.8 percent and whiffing 23 percent. During his minor league tenure, Golson has a .263/.308/.395 triple-slash, drawing ball four 5.5 percent and striking out 26.5 percent. He’ll aspire to become the next Freddy Guzman.

Stock Up

Jordan Zimmerman, Nationals

A Tale of Two Rookies: Shairon Martis might have the shiny 5-0 record and a superficially better ERA (4.86), but Zimmermann (5.71 ERA) holds the FIP advantage, 4.24 to Martis’ 4.71. Zimmermann has a strong 3.25 strikeout-to-walk ratio (8.56 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9), but a fluky .343 BABIP has bogged down his numbers. The 22 year-old has a deep four-pitch mix and keeps the ball in the zone (54.8% of his pitches have crossed home plate, compared to the 48.9% MLB average). He’s also getting ahead of hitters 0-1 or inducing contact early in the at-bat, with a First-Pitch Strike percentage of 66.5 (57.7% MLB average).

Kevin Slowey, Twins

As an extreme flyball pitcher (his career GB% is 33.2), Slowey will give up some meatballs that end up in the stands (1.3 HR/9 in 2009, 1.47 HR/9 career). However, his control and command are absolutely disgusting. Slowey’s walk rate for the season sits at 0.65, less than half of last year’s already pinpoint 1.35 BB/9. The 25 year-old is basically in a category of his own in terms of painting the corners: Joel Pinerio ranks 2nd in BB/9 at 1.03. Slowey has a 9.75 K/BB ratio; Roy Halladay is second at 7.0. Slowey also leads all starters in placing his pitches within the zone, at 59.2 percent. His FIP is down to 3.94 for the season, and batters have a better chance of winning the lottery and subsequently being struck by lightning than drawing a walk against him.

Elvis Andrus, Rangers

Per Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Andrus has been the sixth-most productive shortstop in the majors in 2009, quite the accomplishment for a 20 year-old who spent last season in Double-A. Andrus has been a vacuum at short at 14.8 UZR/150, but he has surprisingly held his own at the dish as well. His wOBA sits at .355, with a .291/.333/.457 line. Andrus’ .165 ISO is leaps and bounds above anything he did at the minor league level. ZiPS suggests that we shouldn’t go hog-wild just yet: Andrus is projected to hit .250/.303/.337 from here on out, with a .291 wOBA. Still, the Rangers have to be highly encouraged.

Rich Hill, Orioles

Baby steps: Coming off a disastrous 2008 campaign in which he walked the yard and lost all semblance of fastball control, Hill has 12 punchouts in 11.1 frames. He’s still fighting himself, however, with 6 free passes. The 29 year-old’s signature low-70’s curve has shown plenty of bite (with 8.2 inches of “dropping” action, the hook is falling nearly twice as much as the average lefty curve, and more than Hill’s 7.1 career average when Pitch F/X is watching).

Hill continues to throw his curve and fastball from two different arm slots, though I won’t pretend to know whether or not the batter could pick up on such a nuance. The difference doesn’t appear to be extreme:

See that one red dot? Hill has dropped down sidearm to throw a slider once in each of his first two starts.

Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks

The D-Backs rank just 24th in the majors in wOBA, but don’t blame Reynolds. He holds a .398 wOBA, with 12 home runs and a .284 ISO. He’s still coming up empty as often as any one (36.1 K%), but Reynolds is working the count well (12.4 BB%) while reducing his Outside Swing% for the third consecutive year (from 26.1% in 2007 to 20.6% this season).

Stock Down

Rich Harden, Cubs

The A’s received plenty of flak last summer for parting with Harden, whose transient brilliance can intoxicate GM’s and fantasy owners alike. The reason Oakland received only a middling package of prospects is the same reason why Harden will always be a second or third-tier fantasy starter: he’s never upright for more than a few months at a time. Whiffing nearly 11 batters per nine innings, Harden hits the DL with a back strain.

A.J. Burnett, Yankees

Burnett’s five-year pact with the Bombers was considered a significant risk from a health standpoint, but he was expected to perform quite well when available. So far, that hasn’t been the case: fresh off a 3.45 FIP with the Blue Jays, Burnett has posted a 5.27 FIP in 58 innings. Some of that is poor luck on flyballs- his HR/FB% is somewhat high at 14.3 percent. Still, his strikeout rate is down (7.76 K/9 in 2009, 9.39 in 2008), he’s walking too many batters (4.19 BB/9), and he’s surrendering far more flyballs this season. His 41.7 GB% is significantly lower than his 48.5% mark in 2008, which in turn was quite a bit lower than his 54.8% figure in 2007. Considering that seemingly innocuous flyballs are whizzing out of new Yankee Stadium at a dizzying pace (1.62 HR park factor), that’s not a positive trend.

Emmanuel Burriss, Giants

Granted, this Kent State product was never expected to knock balls into the gap with regularity, but this is getting a little ridiculous. Burriss has three extra-base knocks on the season, good for a .021 ISO. His wOBA sits at .284. Coupled with a so-so 11-for-15 in the SB department and a false start with the leather (-7.6 UZR/150), Burriss has been below replacement-level thus far. There are rumblings that Burriss may begin losing playing time to Kevin Frandsen.

Chris Davis, Rangers

Punching out regularly certainly doesn’t preclude a hitter from being highly productive, but Davis has resembled a Dave Kingman/Rob Deer love child in 2009. He has whiffed an astounding 43.5% of the time, lapping the competition: Carlos Pena ranks a distant second, at 36.3%. The 23 year-old is crushing what he can touch, with 10 homers and a .231 ISO. However, he’s swinging at most everything (35.2 Outside Swing%) while making the least amount of contact of any batter in the majors, at 58 percent. The result is an ugly .264 OBP and a .300 wOBA.

Francisco Liriano, Twins

Liriano had a highly promising return to the Twinkies last year (3.87 FIP, 7.93 K/9), but the 25 year-old southpaw has been torched for a 5.28 FIP in 2009. Placing a below-average 45.9% of his pitches within the strike zone, Liriano has issued 4.44 BB/9. Not surprisingly, his release point has been all over the place. For example, here’s his last start against the White Sox, on May 20th:

This winter, the Chicago Cubs have strung together a series of puzzling transactions. From shipping versatile infielder/outfielder Mark DeRosa to the Indians for three lukewarm pitching prospects (Jeff Stevens, John Gaub, Christopher Archer), acquiring Kevin Gregg from Florida for six years of team control over Jose Ceda, not offering arbitration to type-A free agent Kerry Wood (the “worst case scenario” there involves Wood accepting, giving the club a good, injury-prone reliever under control for just one year) and essentially swapping option-less former prospects Felix Pie and Ronny Cedeno for Aaron Heilman, GM Jim Hendry has sent out quite the load of talent without receiving comparable value in return. Signing Milton Bradley is a risky-but-defensible move and swapping Jason Marquis for Luis Vizcaino is unlikely to create ripples, but on the whole, it has been a winter of trading down in the Windy City.

The “out of options” fire sale continued yesterday, as the pitching-starved Orioles snagged left-hander Rich Hill from the Cubs for a player to be named. The move is all upside from Baltimore’s vantage point: they acquire a guy who was pretty useful as recently as 2007, and if Hill busts, they won’t give up much of anything: the quality of the PTBNL is contingent on Hill’s performance for the O’s.

Hill, 29 in March, certainly has a better chance of cracking Baltimore’s rotation than he did in Chicago, where his turbulent 2008 made him a forgotten man within the organization. While the O’s have an impressive collection of well-regarded arms on the farm (Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, and to a lesser extent guys like Brandon Erbe, David Hernandez, Troy Patton, Bradley Bergesen and Chorye Spoone), the current rotation depth chart reads like a collection of waiver-wire talent.

Jeremy Guthrie’s peripherals suggest he’s more league-average starter than rotational pillar (his FIP has hovered around 4.50 the past two years, with a .270-ish BABIP and a high strand rate making things appear sturdier). Control-oriented import Koji Uehara “should be roughly around average, and more likely on the low side than the high”, according to Baseball Prospectus’ Clay Davenport (subscription required). Beyond that? The O’s are left hoping that Radhames Liz and/or Matt Albers have good enough control or a deep enough repertoire to be sufficient starters. And there’s Mark Hendrickson, who’s tall. So, there’s that.

I do not claim to have any special insight into Rich Hill’s health, mechanics or mental state, and the results in ’08 were grim. In 67 combined innings tossed last year between the majors, AAA, High-A and Rookie Ball, Hill walked 62 batters. Small sample size and all, Hill’s 2008 plate discipline numbers tell the story: aware that Hill couldn’t locate, opposing batters swung at just 10.8% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (the league average is close to 25%), and hitters swung just 34.8% of the time overall. Why go up hacking against a guy who’s very likely to issue a free pass?

Things didn’t get any better during the offseason, as he walked a batter per inning for Aragua in the Venezuelan Winter League. Is it possible that Hill has “Steve Blass Disease” and the strike zone will continue to elude him? Sure.

But, what I do know is that on the whole, Hill has shown a solid skill-set in the majors. In 337.2 career frames, the University of Michigan product has punched out 8.24 batters per nine innings while walking 3.65 per nine. An extreme flyball pitcher (career 34.3 GB%), Hill has been burned by the home run (1.28 surrendered per nine innings). Overall, the 6-5 southpaw has posted a 4.57 FIP, close to league-average. Hill’s flyballing ways likely won’t serve him well as he transitions into the insanely competitive AL East and a ballpark that inflates home run production (Camden Yards has a 3-year HR park factor of 123).

So, what does Hill have to do to reclaim his past success? Aside from the obvious (“uh, throw more strikes”), Hill could stand to diversify his repertoire. He has always relied upon a high-80’s fastball and a big, slow-breaking curveball, but Hill basically eschewed his changeup last season, and also did so during a rough and short stint with the Cubs in 2005.

While keeping in mind that we are dealing with pitch data from only 19.2 innings, Hill threw a changeup just 2.3% of the time in ’08 compared to 8.3% in 2007. With no confidence in his fastball and a reluctance to pull the string, Hill threw his trademark curve 35.4% of the time (27.3% in ’07). Recapturing his fastball control and command will surely be paramount, but it couldn’t hurt to be a little less predictable as well.

Hill is no sure thing, but he presents the same “low-risk, high reward” opportunity for fantasy owners as he does for the Orioles. After such a brutal season, Hill is unlikely to be on many radar screens. Keep an eye on his progress during spring training- 2008 was disastrous, but he posted a near 3/1 K/BB ratio as recently as ’07. If Hill regains his control, he could prove to be a shrewd acquisition for open-minded owners.