Archive for Reds

Last week, Paul Sporer had some highly encouraging things to say about Hunter Dozier in his piece on early batter breakouts. Paul noted that Dozier has radically changed his approach in the early going, and with another week’s worth of data to consider, at least one of his changes remains staggering to ponder. Last season, Dozier was more aggressive than the typical major league hitter, swinging at 50.1 percent of the pitches he saw. Just over a month into this season, he has become extremely selective, lowering his Swing% to less than three-fourths (37.0 percent) of what it was in 2018.

The improved production that we have seen from Dozier — the higher walk rate, lower strikeout rate, higher Avg and OBP and possibly also the increased power as well — can all be traced back in part to this one change in approach. It’s still early enough in the season that it is more than reasonable to ask if his improvement is for real. If we answer that question by looking at the peripherals that underlie Dozier’s improved fantasy stats, we’d have to say it does look real.
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It seems the more we think to know about the Red Sox bullpen, perhaps the less we do? Matt Barnes opened the season as the highest leverage reliever, capable of appearing at any point when needed by manager Alex Cora. Last night, this happened, but with Ryan Brasier entering the game in the top of the seventh with runners on second and third base with two outs, taking on the A’s most dangerous hitter, Khris Davis. Brasier retired Davis with a strikeout, then threw a clean eighth getting the win in relief for his efforts. After Boston extended its lead, Hector Velasquez opened the ninth but only recorded one out while loading the bases on a hit and two walks. This pressed Barnes into duty and he responded with his second save. Read the rest of this entry »

Since writing the initial 2019 Bullpen Report after the Mariners-Athletics series in Tokyo, three closer competitions have been decided. As expected by many owners, Will Smith and Alex Colome respectively nailed down the Giants’ and White Sox’s closer jobs. In a much more surprising move, Torey Lovullo chose Greg Holland as the Diamondbacks’ closer over Archie Bradley and Yoshihisa Hirano. Fantasy owners are starting to warm up to Holland, as he is now owned in 44 percent of CBS leagues and 20 percent of ESPN leagues. I recently made the case for adding him, so rather than present that argument here, I simply refer you to the piece I wrote on him.
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For the last couple of seasons, I have been waiting for a Tyler Anderson breakout. Over the course of 2017 and 2018, he induced whiffs on 11.9 percent of his pitches, which is good for the 21st-highest SwStr% among the 91 pitchers who have thrown at least 250 innings over that span. As I seemingly write in every other column, it is well established that SwStr% is strongly correlated with strikeout rate, yet Anderson’s 22.3 percent K% from the last two years ranks just 41st out of those same 91 pitchers.

The reason for Anderson’s apparent underachievement is clear: he doesn’t get many called strikes. The Rockies’ lefty throws a lot of pitches in the strike zone, and he gets swings on those pitches at an unusually high rate. That helps his swinging strike rate, but the flipside is that he has frozen batters at a subpar 16.5 percent rate over his career.
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Note: As was the case in a previous analysis of Statcast measures and their correlation with power metrics for hitters, I owe a debt of gratitude to Alex Chamberlain. He did a lot of heavy lifting for this column, running the correlations and discussing interpretations with me.

It won’t be the first or last time, but I did a silly thing on Twitter. In announcing a pick for the Pitcher List Experts Mock, I decided to tout the player I chose by citing one of his achievements, as captured by a Statcast metric.

Fun fact: Trevor Williams has the 3rd-lowest avg. exit velocity allowed on flies and liners over the last two seasons (min. 400 BBE), behind only deGrom and Kluber. Just took him in Rd 21 of the #PLExpertsMock. @JustinMasonFWFB, you’re up!

— Al Melchior (@almelchiorBB) December 13, 2018

(Justin, by the way, made his pick very promptly.)
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Soon enough, we will be mocking liked we’ve never mocked before, practicing for our real drafts that are now a mere three months away. Like many in the industry, I embarked on my mock drafting almost immediately after the season. I was fortunate to have taken part in Justin Mason’s 2 Early Mocks, and since then I have participated in a mock draft for Lindy’s and the ongoing Pitcher List Experts slow mock (I have made 18 picks out of 23 as of this writing).

Already, it is becoming apparent that I have a few favorites who I am targeting. There are 10 players who I have picked in at least two of the three drafts, and five in particular strike me as good values if their early mock draft positions hold steady into the real drafts come March.
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At a time when many players trade contact for fly ball rates to generate power, Jesse Winker could be emerging as a fantasy asset with a skill set rooted in plate discipline with power on the rise. Winker appeared in 89 games last year scoring 38 runs with seven home runs, 48 RBI and a .299/.405/.431 slash line. Unfortunately, his season ended abruptly due to a subluxation of his right shoulder, covered in detail by Mark Sheldon. While many questioned Winker’s power as a prospect, the article suggests he’s been dealing with the balky shoulder for 2-to-3 seasons. In spite of this, Winker flashed his upside for fantasy in this limited sample, making him an intriguing target for upcoming drafts.

Before delving into the potential growth of his power, ignoring Winker’s prowess at the plate would be a mistake. He’s one of five players with at least 300 plate appearances last year to record more walks than strikeouts. This puts him in rare air joining only Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, Alex Bregman and teammate Joey Votto in doing so. Some guy named Mike Trout just missed the list with a 0.98 walk to strikeout rate. In terms of plate discipline, Winker finished with a 5.9 swinging strike percentage and made contact over 85 percent of the time. Winker also swung at pitches in the strike zone (Z-swing percentage) at a 65.3 rate punctuating his upside in terms of discipline.

Transitioning to his batted ball data, Winker increased his line drive percentage by over seven percent, reduced his ground ball rate by over 10 while hitting more fly balls compared to his statistics from 2017 in Cincinnati, in spite of a nagging shoulder injury. More important, Winker raised his hard hit percentage to 43.9 percent last year which overshadows the drop in home run per fly ball data. A hitter who just fell short of hitting .300 with more walks than strikeouts and improved batted ball data seems like an interesting fantasy commodity. Here’s a look at a rolling chart of these statistics from the last two seasons:

If Winker’s shoulder returns to full strength and he can carry over the hard hit percentage, his latent power could surface in 2019. Looking at his xSTATS, Winker’s exit velocity grew from 86.7 MPH in 2017 to 89.1 MPH last season. His expected home runs from the last two years add up to 14.8 in only 402 at-bats, almost in direct line with his 14 in this time frame. Unlike many batters, Winker does not need to pull the ball to increase his home run total, it lies within his ability to hit to all fields. Here’s his spray chart from the last seasons using all of his line drives and fly balls according to Statcast:

Steamer projects a very solid season for Winker with 75 runs, 17 home runs, 66 RBI, three stolen bases and a .284/.376/.437 slash line in 525 at-bats. Once again, using his xSTATS, Winker’s expected average from the last two years sits at a very respectable .288, and well within his outcomes for 2019, with owners hoping for a repeat of last year. This also applies to his home run projection as long as he can accrue at least 500 at-bats. News on his shoulder this spring will provide more clarity as to his health. With some luck, Winker could exceed his Steamer home run projection and reach 20, but it’s speculation not an expectation. However, 17-to-20 home runs with a .288 average could be more appealing than how people may perceive Winker. Especially considering only 20 hitters finished with a higher average than Winkler while accruing at least 300 plate appearances.

Winker’s #2EarlyToMock average draft position finished at 211.1 over the course of nine drafts. His highest draft spot of 180 still leaves room for profit due to his potential upside. Discipline with an uptick in power and a strong supporting cast in Cincinnati not only make Jesse Winker a half season hero, but he’s a worthy target in the upcoming draft season.

Even though Jose Peraza had only a little more than a full season’s worth of major league playing time entering 2018, it seemed fair to think we had a strong grasp of what kind of hitter he was. In his major and minor league past, he had been an aggressive hitter with good contact skills but with little power. Speed was his top tool coming up as a prospect, but in his first full season in the majors in 2017, Peraza merely tied for 17th in the stolen base rankings with 23 and tied for 40th in infield hits with 16. It was easy to see why he was often ignored until after the first 200 players were picked on draft day.
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There are a number of TBDs still listed for starting pitchers on Wednesday’s slate. The Orioles still need a starter for Game 1 in their doubleheader at Boston, and the Astros, Padres and Giants have yet to announce their starters. The same goes for the Rays, but that’s true for three out of every five games for them. It would be Jalen Beeks‘ turn to be their primary pitcher, but he has not lasted more than three innings in any of his last five appearances dating back to Aug. 29. Even if Beeks is at his best against the Yankees, it is doubtful that he will pitch enough innings to make a difference for your fantasy squad.
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When the game reached the seventh inning and Kenley Jansen remained in the dugout, it became apparent the Dodgers were going to keep him out of a potential save situation in Texas. Jansen’s allowed runs in each of his four appearances since returning from the disabled list without a rehab outing resulting in seven earned runs, two losses and a blown save. Less than optimal in the midst of a pennant chase. Kenta Maeda recorded his first save of the year, and second in his career during the regular season, allowing a hit, an earned run and two walks with a strikeout. He’s made six appearances as a reliever this year with a 2.69 ERA, 10 strikeouts against two walks and a matching 1.42 WHIP and FIP. While it’s apparent Maeda will back up Jansen going forward, the team will use their veteran closer this weekend in the role in a key match-up versus Arizona:

Kenley Jansen will be ready to close tomorrow against Arizona, Dave Roberts said.

— Andy McCullough (@ByMcCullough) August 30, 2018

In other Dodgers news, the team placed a waiver claim on Ryan Madson in an attempt to bolster the bullpen before September. The teams have until Friday afternoon to consummate a deal. Stay tuned to world of evolving bullpens. Read the rest of this entry »