Archive for R.A. Dickey

After a rough week eight, we’re off to a pretty solid start with week nine — 3.92 ERA, 23-1 K/BB ratio, 10 K/9 and 0.92 WHIP with two quality starts in three opportunities — and hopefully we can parlay that into something solid here in week 10.

Here are the season results so far:

19-15
3.96 ERA
8.2 K/9
3.0 K/BB
1.33 WHIP
30 quality starts

Here are this week’s recommendations, with opposing team’s wRC+ in parentheses:

RHP Jerad Eickhoff – 12.8% ESPN – @TOR (95), v. ARI (98)

I really hate recommending pitchers going up against one another on Monday or Tuesday, and that’s exactly what’s happening here. Still, it is a very sparse week to choose from, and I like how Eickhoff has pitched for the most part recently. Especially last time out, as he held the Cubs to just one earned run in seven innings with eight strikeouts and just four baserunners total (two hits, two walks). That’s a hell of an offense to shut down. Four of Eickhoff’s last five starts have been quality starts, and for the most part he’s been pretty sturdy all season long (4.15 ERA in April, 3.99 in May). I’m a sucker for guys who can get grounders and strikeouts, especially if they don’t walk anyone (1.8 BB/9). Read the rest of this entry »

This week, Eno presented Pitch Arsenal scores. There were a sundry of impactful responses which will result in a more comprehensive score in the future, such as incorporating pitch usage; a dominating pitch used more should be scored higher than a pitch with the same results that is used less.

The other clear requirement is associating weight to the outcomes in which Eno evaluated: whiff per swings and grounder to fly ratios. That is all this post will get at. It sounds like follow-up scores may incorporate pop-up% and zone% as well. Again, we are looking for undervalued pitchers, but if we want to get more descriptive (simply presenting the results from last year), we could look at HR/FB and LD/BIP on each pitch type as well.

I did something similar in the past, and there are different approaches, but here goes.

Using BP’s PITCHf/x Leaderboard (1oo-pitch qualifier) I first found each pitch type’s Whiff/Swing and GB/FB z-score. I then weighed each z-score by swinging-strike’s (.62) and GB/FB’s (.27) average correlation to ERA, SIERA and xFIP for all pitchers over 70 innings pitched (my lazy attempt to omit relievers). What is not incorporated and should be in the future, is differentiating weights for each pitch type. For example, groundball induction is a more important requirement for Sinkers; Sliders and Change-ups should induce more whiffs as we know from these Pitch Type Benchmarks.

The seven pitch types incorporated are Fourseamers, Sinkers, Cutters, Curves, Sliders, Change-ups and Splitters. For Trevor Bauer‘s Screwball and R.A. Dickey’s Knuckleball, I went to Brooks Baseball’s player cards and used their sabermetric outcome z-scores for these two pitch types and combined the weighted z-score to the rest of their repertoire score.

The list will be distinguishable from Eno’s initial list based on the weights, but the names within each cluster will look similar.

When you get Felix Hernandez and Corey Kluber in the top 5 and Kevin Correia dead last, you know we got it right:

Notes:

• Pitchers with outcomes missing threw less than 70 IP.
• Pitch types were included only if pitches were thrown 100+ times. For example, Trevor Cahill wound up at #8 on this list. He has excellent breaking and off-speed pitches (all 1+ standard deviations more than average from a whiff/swing perspective), but his Fourseam is awful, and BP’s PITCHf/x leaderboard did not present his Fourseam outcomes based on a sub-100 pitch count as a starting pitcher so it was not included in his full arsenal/repertoire score.

Results:

Think the Indians aren’t looking on the pitch-outcome level? They have 5 pitchers in the top 55 Repertoire Scores: Carlos Carrasco and Corey Kluber are numbers 3 and 4 respectively! Newcomer Gavin Floyd is #15 on the list thanks to great breaking balls. Danny Salazar is #43 and his per-pitch outcomes were even better coming into 2014. T.J. House is the real deal at #54. And not far off is Trevor Bauer at #75 overall.

I cannot not mention that the Mets have two guys in the top 21: Zack Wheeler (#9) and Jacob deGrom #21). Harvey if healthy should join them.

As it relates to Cahill, for some value-add, I highlighted (red/green) those .50 more or less standard deviations from the mean in SwStr% and GB/FB, but also the three “luck” categories: LOB%, HR/FB and of course BABIP. Cahill ranks well in both SwStr% and GB/FB and was also relatively unlucky when it came to his BABIP and LOB% (about 65 points and 9% respectively from his career average). Cahill is a deep-league…even standard-league asset with some returned control and an ERA closer to expected ERAs below 4.00. I am thinking the magical-mystery-kind age 27 season for Cahill.

Attend to the luck stats. Carlos Martinez has one of the best repertoire scores yet had a 4.03 ERA in part due to a .333 BABIP. His xFIP (3.45) and SIERA (3.54) in conjunction with the #1 overall arsenal score should ensure he is significantly better next year.

The list verifies breakouts: Carlos Carrasco, Garrett Richards, Yordano Ventura and Tyson Ross (all top15). Ross has a devastating Slider (8th best; 100-pitch qualifier) with a solid Change from a whiff/swing perspective, but he induces a ton of grounders with his Change and Sinker (both have top 11 GB/FB rates).

The list also provides hope for Justin Masterson who wound up at #7 on the list with 2.72 Sinker score and .74 Slider score. That 2.72 Sinker score out-summed 205 other full repertoire scores, but again keep in mind that his Sinker whiff/swing of 22.88% might be 3 standard deviations better than the average Sinker whiff/swing, but that rate is under the average whiff/swing rate for Curves, Sliders, Change-ups and Splitters. This is why it is important to differentiate weights for each pitch type.

If there is a pitcher’s Repertoire score that baffles you, check out the “RepScores” tab to see which pitches were omitted and the individual pitch-type z-scores and weights under the “zWh/Sw” and “wzWh/Sw” columns. Each pitch-type score and repertoire score is in the last column, titled “Wh/Sw_Gb/Fb_Scr.”

Back to the actual value of the content though – we are looking for interesting names and patterns, which I have highlighted in Red or Yellow based on the content below:

• Trevor Cahill interests me if he never uses his Fourseamer again and can induce more grounders with his Sinker. Cahill has a nice Cutter/Slider that he used toward the end of last year too. There is more swing and miss to his game.
• Dan Straily and the Sinker Pattern: Dan Straily might not have a spot in the Cubs rotation at this point, but he has a solid Slider and induces a surprising number of pop-ups. If he can keep his HR/FB ratio down (probably more of an issue in Wrigley than the Coliseum though) and have better luck in the left-on-base department, he could become effective again. His ranking in this list though is because of an elevated Sinker value (similar to Masterson). Look out for the Sinker and take the associated rankings with a handful of salt.
• James Paxton: By name and the Mariners un-willingness to move him, you know that he is good. It’s nice that our list backs him up. While his expected ERAs were 3.50+ (about 50 points higher than his 3.04 actual ERA), he should get even better; mainly his Change-ups, which should induce more whiffs. Even if we don’t see an impressive strikeout rate next year, I think he will be able to prevent hard contact with his CCC (Change-Curve-Cutter) repertoire and Fastball velocity (17th at 95.51 MPH last year; 100-pitch qualifier).
• Shane Greene: He’s no Max Scherzer, but the Tigers finagle themselves into another Yankees-Diamondbacks swap and again may have acquired the best piece. Another potent righty, Greene had the 10th best Slider Whiff/Swing rate and 5th best Cutter Whiff/Swing rate (enough velocity differential where they are distinguishable). Unlike Masterson and Straily, his Sinker does not inflate his repertoire score. Losing Rick Porcello hurts, but Shane Greene could be even better.
• Jesse Hahn and Pitch Omissions: Similar to Masterson and Straily, Hahn’s repertoire score is inflated by his Sinker although he had a great Curve (31st best Whiff/Swing rate). His Slider and Change were omitted from his arsenal in this evaluation based on pitch-counts under 100. Both would impede on his overall score. Through this approach, Hahn’s Changeup would be valued at -.15, which would drag his repertoire score from 1.59 to 1.44. The Slider would be far worse, but he used it less than 30 times, so I won’t subtract from his overall score in case he decides to swap the pitch out altogether next year.
• Wily Peralta. This is more about confirmation than highlighting a surprising name. Peralta won’t provide haughty strikeout rates, but his 18.4% rate from last year could jump a bit based on the per-pitch outcomes/more breaking-ball usage. In a future FanGraphs+ post, his release point consistency (within-game but especially game-to-game) will be highlighted, which could be a source of deception. While the Sinker does inflate his value some here (almost a standard deviation more whiff/swing than the average Sinker), it does its job inducing grounders. His Changeup and Slider are also .55+ standard deviations better than average at inducing whiffs.

Eno already emphasized Carlos Martinez and Carlos Carrasco – both have glorious peripherals within each pitch-type beyond their Fourseams. Every pitch of theirs outside the Fourseam induced 1.5 standard deviations more whiffs/swing than average!

Watch out for Danny Salazar who (by classification) introduced a devastating Changeup in September and should output value similar to or better than Carlos Carrasco based on a haughtier strikeout rate. Salazar was probably a luckier BABIP away from a 3.5 ERA last year. In fact, unsurprisingly, each Indians starter outside of Carrasco had a BABIP .5 standard deviations over the average (70IP qualifier).

Review:

• Look for sleepers/surprises based on “Rep.Score” in column two of the embedded file as presented.
• Check out the “RepScores” tab to see if any pitch-types were removed based on pitch-counts and keep pitch-type usage in mind (counts in the 5th column).
• Remember, differentiating weights for each pitch type is not incorporated. Scroll to the right within the “RepScores” tab to view individual pitch-type scores as well as the complete repertoire/arsenal score. Watch for pitchers with Sinkers as their highest score. Sinkers whiff rates aren’t as impactful. Allen Webster has a great score, but it is inflated because of its Whiff/Swing rate. As mentioned above, the same holds true for Justin Masterson and Dan Straily among others.
•  The Diamondbacks and Yankees won’t let the Tigers finagle themselves into another deal after Shane Greene enjoys success similar to the Scherzer application.
• And finally, try to own the entire Indians rotation in your fantasy leagues.

On 7/18, Madison Bumgarner changed his positioning on the mound. Eno noted it and Madison Bumgarner confirmed it. Bumgarner has worked to make his pitches (and I presume his release point) very similar through video and in front of a mirror “making sure he sets up in in the right places.”

Eno summed it up: “Bumgarner is ready to make the most of his old playbook. Throw lots of fastballs, cutters, and curves, all from the same release point, all with similar spin, and all exploding out of a slow, deliberate delivery.”

Read the rest of this entry »

If you’ve never played a daily fantasy contest, you may be unsure what type of game to play. You have to make a few decisions to find the right game for you.

The first decision is salary cap or pick ‘em. Salary cap is exactly what it sounds like. You have a salary cap ($100,000) to pick your lineup which consists of three pitchers, one player at each infield position, three outfielders and a utility slot. In a pick ‘em contest, everyone picks one player from each tier. Tiers are just small groupings of players.

I prefer salary cap because it requires a little more effort. You have to sift through all the players in a cap contest as opposed to a small number of players in a pick ‘em. If you’re willing to put in the time required to find the value in a cap contest, you may have an advantage. Everyone in the contest may not be willing to take the time to find value. Read the rest of this entry »

Every year, at about this time, I like to go back and check in on certain strategies employed on draft day and see how they have served me thus far.  Is it a strategy worth employing again?  What tweaks to it are needed for the next time, if indeed there is a next time?  One strategy in particular, the one that seems to always spur the most discussion, that deserves to be re-visited is the one where I, because of the incredible depth at pitching, draft a beast-like offense first and wait until closer to the middle rounds to pick up my starters.  Nothing but bats to start things off and somewhere around the 10th or 11th round, I grab my first pitcher. Read the rest of this entry »

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 13.

Nick Blackburn – April was not kind to Blackburn and he had a 5.14 ERA at the end of the first month of the season. Since then, he is 5-1 with a 2.35 ERA in his last 10 games, with eight Quality Starts in that span. With a poor K rate, Blackburn is always walking a tightrope. But he’s keeping runners off base (2.51 BB/9, .276 BABIP) and his 1.11 HR/9 is a tick below his career average. This week he gets two home starts, where he has a 2.40 ERA this season. Get him into your lineup.

R.A. Dickey – There was a lot of skepticism around Dickey after his breakout year last season at age 35. Now he sits with a 3-7 record and an ERA nearly a run higher than a year ago and the skeptics seem right. However, if it wasn’t for bad luck, Dickey seemingly would have no luck at all. In his last seven starts, he has a 2.23 ERA with a 3.08 K/BB ratio and a 7.51 K/9 yet only has two wins in that stretch. He could have six wins in that time with better fortune. Dickey has been pitching well and while the matchups are not overly favorable (@ DET, NYY) he still makes an excellent streaming option this week.

Matt Garza – The switch to the National League agreed with Garza, who fanned 68 batters in 55.2 IP in his first nine games with the Cubs. But tightness in his elbow landed Garza on the DL and he has not been the same pitcher since his return. In four starts since being activated, Garza has 14 Ks in 21 IP, has allowed 4 HR and has a 5.14 ERA. He faces two good HR teams in COL and CHW and if the wind is blowing out in Wrigley it could get ugly. Give him a spot on the bench this week if you have the depth.

Kyle Lohse – Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. A veteran Cardinals pitcher trades a bunch of four-seam fastballs for two-seamers, improves his walk rate and turns in a fine season. This year it’s Lohse’s turn to play this role and the results have been impressive. His fastball, which has been a double-digit negative in linear weights the past four years, now checks in as a 2.0 wFB. And his BB/9, which was 3.40 last year, now sits at 1.63, the fifth-best mark in the majors.

But the league seems to be catching on to Lohse’s new act. After opening the year at 7-2, 2.14 ERA he is 0-2 with a 5.47 ERA in his last four starts. He’s also allowed 7 HR in 24.2 IP this month. Lohse has road starts in two AL parks this week. While he has pitched quite well on the road overall this year (5-1, 2.70 ERA), this still seems like a good time to give him the week off.

Ryan Vogelsong – Fantasy owners have been adding Vogelsong in droves over the past six weeks. And who can blame them, as he has a 5-1 record with a 1.86 ERA this season. Plus, his only loss of the year came in a game where he allowed 1 ER in 8 IP. Vogelsong has improved across the board in 2011. He’s added two-thirds of a strikeout to his lifetime K/9 rate and is closing in on cutting his BB/9 and HR/9 in half.

But he has a .260 BABIP and an 85.8 LOB% and a 5.1 HR/FB rate, which gives us a 3.40 xFIP. While that is a strong mark, it’s significantly above his 1.86 ERA. Also, Vogelsong has a big home/road split. At AT&T park (which has a 0.552 HR factor this year according to ESPN) he is 3-1 with a 1.01 ERA. On the road Vogelsong has a 3.21 ERA. With two road starts this week, give him the week off.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 13 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lee, Beckett, Greinke, Kennedy, Wilson, Chacin, G. Gonzalez, Cueto, Scherzer, Bedard, Hellickson, Latos, Billingsley, E. Santana, Britton, Correia, Beachy, Porcello, Marquis, F. Garcia, Lannan, Hammel, Vazquez, Lyles, Francis, Reyes, Stewart, Talbot, Davis.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 11 pitchers and how they fared.

Arroyo – Advised to sit. 2 W, 11 Ks, 2.87 ERA, 0.766 WHIP, 13.1 IP, 1 ER
Britton – Advised to sit. 4 Ks, 1.80 ERA, 1.400 WHIP, 5 IP, ER
Collmenter – Advised to start. 9 Ks, 6.00 ERA, 1.417 WHIP, 12 IP, 8 ER
Masterson – Advised to sit. 9 Ks, 3.18 ERA, 1.765 WHIP, 11.1 IP, 4 ER
Pavano – Advised to start. W, 5 Ks, 1.00 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 9 IP, ER

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 5.

R.A. Dickey – Last year’s feel-good story is off to a rough start this year, with a 1-3 record and an ERA nearly a full run higher than 2010. Walks have been a big problem for Dickey, as his 4.09 BB/9 is way above last year’s 2.17 mark. But after giving up 12 BB in his first 17.1 IP, Dickey has allowed just 3 BB in his last 15.2 innings. With home games against the Giants and Dodgers, look for Dickey to get back to last year’s results, where he was 7-3 with a 1.99 ERA at Citi Field, and get him into your lineup.

Livan Hernandez – Last year, Hernandez got off to a hot start, which prompted Dave Cameron to call him: The Luckiest Man Alive. Regression hit in his final 21 starts (5-9, 4.48 ERA) and his overall numbers were what we would expect, save for a 5.8 HR/FB rate. Flash forward to this year and his 2011 numbers are similar to what he produced overall in 2010. His xFIP is nearly identical to what it was a year ago, but his ERA is 1.31 runs lower than his xFIP due mainly to a low HR rate. Here are the HR/FB rates for Hernandez the past five seasons, starting with 2007: 11.8, 10.7, 8.4, 5.8, 3.4.

Regression will hit Hernandez again this year, but the problem with regression is while we know it’s coming, we’re just not sure when. We do know that Hernandez faces two teams in the Phillies and Marlins this week that are below average in the National League in hitting homers. While Hernandez has had some trouble on the road this year, my feeling is that the good luck with HR will continue another week and I am going to have him in my lineup.

Jair Jurrjens – Since being activated from the disabled list, Jurrjens has been masterful in three starts, going 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA. While that is accompanied by all of the unsustainable marks you would expect, like a 92.6 LOB%, one thing Jurrjens has impressed with and might be able to continue with going forward is his K/BB ratio. It currently sits at 2.80, thanks to a 2.05 BB/9. He goes up against the Brewers and Phillies, two teams that are below average in the NL drawing walks. Both teams are above average in scoring runs, so it certainly will not be an easy week for Jurrjens, but I like his chances.

Mike Leake – In a bit of unusual circumstance, Leake is 3-0 yet his xFIP (3.58) is lower than his ERA (4.40). In his second season in the majors, Leake has upped his K rate, going from a 5.92 K/9 a season ago to 7.63 this season. In his last three starts, Leake has 18 Ks in 20 IP. He’s pitched a Quality Start in four of his five games this year, stumbling only in a road game in Arizona. This week Leake squares off against the Astros and Cubs, two teams with a combined 19-30 record. Get the youngster into your lineup this week.

Josh Tomlin – A perfect five-for-five in Quality Starts, the previously unheralded Tomlin has been embraced by fantasy players, with ownership rates in CBS Sports leagues higher than Dickey, Hernandez and Leake. The righty Tomlin has an average fastball velocity of just 87.6, but throws four other pitches, does a nice job mixing them and has positive Pitch Type Values on all of his non-fastball offerings.

But while it has been fun to watch Tomlin come out of nowhere, he does have a .179 BABIP and a 91.7 LOB%. With two West Coast road starts this week against the A’s and Angels, this may be the time that regression shows up. Look for alternatives to Tomlin this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 5 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Lester, Verlander, Haren, Beckett, Kershaw, Oswalt, Hanson, Gallardo, Lohse, Harang, Ogando, A. Sanchez, McClellan, Davis, Holland, Bumgarner, Guthrie, McCarthy, Colon, Buehrle, Rogers, Francis, Happ, Bedard, Penny, McDonald, Volstad, Chatwood, Gorzelanny, Ross, Saunders, Vogelsong, Bergesen, Reyes.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 3 pitchers and how they fared.

Beachy- Advised to sit. W, 14 Ks, 1.50 ERA, 0.583 WHIP, 12 IP, 2 ER
Matsuzaka – Advised to sit. 2 W, 12 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.400 WHIP, 15 IP, 0 ER
Pavano – Advised to start. W, 6 Ks, 7.71 ERA, 1.629 WHIP, 11.2 IP, 10 ER
Vargas – Advised to start. 7 Ks, 6.55 ERA, 1.546 WHIP, 11 IP, 8 ER
Zambrano – Advised to start. 14 Ks, 4.15 ERA, 0.923 WHIP, 13 IP. 6 ER

Notes on three starters in the senior circuit to end your Wednesday, including a Mike Minor update!

Read the rest of this entry »

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 24. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

R.A. Dickey – Those who have waited all year for Dickey to turn back into a pumpkin have been disappointed. After a bad start against the Cubs in Wrigley, Dickey rebounded to post his 16th Quality Start of the year in his last outing. He gets two home starts this week. Dickey is 6-1 with a 1.85 ERA in Citi Field this year. Make sure he is active.

Barry Enright – Normally a K rate under 5.00 and a LOB% of 86.9 percent is something to run away from screaming. But at this point of the year when fantasy owners are jockeying for a money spot, you have to ride the hot hand. Enright has two road starts this week and this year away from Chase Field he is 2-0 with a 2.17 ERA in five starts. A small sample for sure, but he also gets to face a struggling Bronson Arroyo and the Pirates. Get him in your lineup.

Jon Garland – All season long Garland has been a pretty good pitcher at home and only so-so on the road. But in his last three games, all in Petco, Garland is 0-3 with a 6.19 ERA. This week he has road starts in Colorado and in St. Louis against Adam Wainwright. This looks like a good week to put Garland on the bench.

Daniel Hudson – In eight games for the Diamondbacks, Hudson has turned in eight Quality Starts. The FB% is still higher than one might hope for, but Hudson does have 20.3 IFFB% in the National League. His strikeouts have been up and down with the Diamondbacks, but Hudson has given owners strong ERA, Wins and WHIP numbers. Ride the hot hand and have Hudson as a starter this week.

Chris Narveson – The overall numbers look ugly but Narveson is on a nice little hot streak recently. In his last seven games, he is 3-0 with a 3.38 ERA. Narveson has 35 Ks and 12 BB in his last 40 IP. After struggling with the gopher ball earlier in the year, Narveson has allowed just 3 HR in his last seven games and this week faces the Giants and Astros, with the latter team having hit the fewest HR in the National League this year. Get Narveson active this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 24 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Lester, Wainwright, Price, Liriano, Kershaw, Myers, J. Garcia, Danks, Arroyo, Matsuzaka, Zito, Lowe, Blanton, Duensing, Wood, Fister, Kazmir, Silva, McDonald, Duke, Maya, Francis, Luebke, Gee, Tomlin, Hochevar, A. Miller.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 22 pitchers and how they fared.

de la Rosa – Advised to sit. W, 2.08 ERA, 13 Ks, 1.231 WHIP (2 starts)
Duensing – Advised to start. W, 1.04 ERA, 2 Ks, 1.731 WHIP (2)
Happ – Advised to sit. 2 W, 1.13 ERA, 11 Ks, 0.688 WHIP (2)
Wolf – Advised to start. W, 3.68 ERA, 5 Ks, 1.886 WHIP (2)
Zambrano – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.46 ERA, 15 Ks, 1.135 WHIP (2)

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 21.

R.A. Dickey – It’s been a great season overall for the 35-year-old Dickey but he has been outstanding in Citi Field, where he has a 5-1 record with a 1.22 ERA. With two home starts this week, Dickey should be in everyone’s lineup.

Jason Hammel – Since July 16th, Hammel is 1-4 with a 4.89 ERA. But six of those seven starts have come on the road. In Coors Field this year, Hammel is 6-1 with a 3.36 ERA. With two home starts this week, look for Hammel to get back in the win column.

Hiroki Kuroda – The past two months, Kuroda is 1-6. Since coming to this country in 2008, Kuroda has posted lower-than-average HR/FB rates. But in his last few starts, he has allowed 3 HR in 25 IP. This week he has road starts in Milwaukee and Colorado, two of the three best HR parks in the National League. Put Kuroda on the bench this week.

Colby Lewis – In his last six starts, Lewis is 0-5 yet his ERA has dropped five points to 3.37 for the season. He gets two home starts this week, where he is 5-3 with a 2.95 ERA for the year. Look for Lewis to pick up at least one win this week and make sure he is in your lineup.

Clayton Richard – He has been piling up victories recently despite not pitching all that well. But his last four starts have all been on the road. Richard gets two home starts this week and the friendly confines of Petco should help out. Richard should be in your active roster.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 21 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Wainwright, J. Johnson, T. Hudson, Hamels, Cain, Liriano, Pavano, Floyd, Lackey, E. Santana, Myers, Morrow, Shields, Volquez, G. Gonzalez, Carmona, L. Hernandez, Kazmir, Blanton, Guthrie, Norris, Porcello, Bonderman, Fister, Harden, Moseley, Ohlendorf, Bush, Lannan, Chen, Rzepczynski, R. Lopez, Lohse, Coleman.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 19 pitchers and how they fared.

Hughes – Advised to start. W, 3.75 ERA, 3 Ks, 1.417 WHIP (2 starts)
Leake – Advised to sit. W, 8.38 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.862 WHIP (2)
Mazzaro – Advised to start. 2.77 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.308 WHIP (2)
Padilla – Advised to start. W, 11.57 ERA, 4 Ks, 1.929 WHIP (2)
Pelfrey – Advised to sit. W, 1.93 ERA, 5 Ks, 0.857 WHIP (2)