Archive for R.A. Dickey

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 16. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

R.A. Dickey – The 35-year-old knuckleball pitcher has made 11 starts in the majors this year and has 9 Quality Starts. His only bad outing of the year (5 IP, 5 ER) came in Puerto Rico in a stadium which is not really up to major league standards. Dickey throws strikes, keeps the ball in the park and gets his share of ground balls. Even though he has two road starts this week, make sure he is in your lineup.

Tommy Hunter – Over the last two years (27 starts) Hunter is 15-6 with a 3.58 ERA, including a perfect 6-0 record this season with a 2.39 ERA. But Hunter’s xFIP is over two runs higher at 4.79, the exact same number it was in 2009. The good fortune comes from an 84.9 LOB%. But the real secret cannot be found in Hunter’s pitching record. Instead it comes from the Rangers’ offense, which gives him an average of 7.25 runs per game. It may be luck, but that is a very nice combination. Ride the streak and make sure Hunter is active for his two starts.

Jair Jurrjens – In three starts since being activated from the DL, Jurrjens is 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA. The overall numbers are still ugly but Jurrjens is getting his walks under control. Before going on the DL, he had a 4.13 BB/9. Since coming back he has allowed 7 BB in 17.2 IP. Last year he had a 3.14 BB/9. Neither the Padres nor Marlins are teams that draw a bunch of walks, with the Padres being essentially average while the Marlins rank 14th in the NL in bases on balls. Additionally, both teams are below average in runs scored. Jurrjens should be active this week.

Joel Pineiro – Three weeks ago Pinero was mentioned as a start option and he came through with flying colors. But this week fantasy owners should go the other way with the Angels lefty. Pineiro has a huge home/road split in 2010, with a 7-2 mark, a 2.37 ERA and a 1.105 WHIP at home but a 6.39 ERA and a 1.520 WHIP. This week he has road starts in New York and Texas. Put Pineiro on the bench this week.

Wandy Rodriguez – After 14 starts, Rodriguez had a 6.09 ERA and looked like a candidate to be dropped from the rotation. But in his last four outings, each a Quality Start, Rodriguez resembled the pitcher who appeared ready to become one of the top hurlers in the NL in the middle of 2009. Last year he had a 3.06 K/BB ratio. This year it is 1.93 in 101.1 IP. But over his last four starts, Rodriguez has 25 Ks and 6 BBs. This is the Rodriguez owners expected entering the year, so make sure to have him active.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 16 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Lincecum, Kershaw, Carpenter, Cueto, Jimenez, Hughes, Pelfrey, Silva, Matsuzaka, Leake, Baker, Bumgarner, Slowey, A. Sanchez, Cecil, Sheets, Kennedy, Davis, Moyer, Bonderman, Hudson, Fister, LeBlanc, Feldman, Bush, Francis, Kendrick, Tillman, Arrieta, McDonald, Galarraga, Robertson, Lincoln, Enright, Davies, Hawksworth, Karstens, Laffey, Litsch, Atilano, Martin, Pauley, Lerew.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. Since there was no two-start pitcher column for the All-Star break, there will be two week’s worth of results here.

Week 13
Braden – Advised to sit. Did not pitch – placed on DL
Hammel – Advised to start. W, 3.46 ERA, 12 Ks, 1.231 WHIP (2 starts)
Lilly – Advised to start W, 6.59 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.317 WHIP (2)
Morrow – Advised to sit. 6.00 ERA, 15 Ks, 1.583 WHIP
Pineiro – Advised to start. 2 W, 2.08 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.539 WHIP (2)

Week 14
Ely – Advised to start. 19.80 ERA, 4 Ks, 3.600 WHIP (2)
Floyd – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.23 ERA, 8 Ks, 0.955 WHIP (2)
Lowe – Advised to sit. 2.92 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.378 WHIP (2)
W. Rodriguez – Advised to start. W, 2.77 ERA, 16 Ks, 0.923 WHIP
Wilson – Advised to start. W, 3.38 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.125 WHIP (2)

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

R.A. Dickey, New York Mets (owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues)

One of the last cuts during Spring Training, Dickey went to Triple-A Buffalo waiting for his turn to come up. While manager Jerry Manuel was hesitant to use Dickey, the knuckleball pitcher is doing his best to make sure he stays in the rotation. In three starts with the Mets, Dickey is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA. While his FIP and xFIP are higher than his ERA, this is not an unusual think for a knuckleball pitcher. Phil Niekro had a higher FIP than ERA in 19 of his 23 full seasons in the majors. In the eight seasons prior to 2010 for which we have xFIP data, Tim Wakefield has posted a lower ERA than xFIP each year. In addition to the knuckler, Dickey can still throw his fastball in the mid-80s, not too surprising for a guy who was originally drafted in the first-round of the 1996 Draft. John Strubel had some nice Spring Training stuff on Dickey that you can read here and listen here.

Chris Narveson, Milwaukee Brewers (owned in 2% of Yahoo! leagues)

The overall numbers for Narveson are ugly. He has a 5.53 ERA and a 1.667 WHIP. But since moving into the starting rotation, he has put up some better numbers and appears capable of filling in at the back of a rotation or as a pitcher to use with the right matchups in NL-only or deep mixed leagues. In six games as a starter, Narveson has 3 Wins with 30 Ks and 12 BB in 32.1 IP. The ERA (5.01) and WHIP (1.454) are still nothing to get excited about but at least they are moving in the right direction. Narveson has a .365 BABIP so he still has some room for improvement in his ERA and WHIP.

Justin Smoak, Texas Rangers (owned in 9% of Yahoo! leagues)

When a high first-round pick makes the majors two years after he is drafted, he carries some high expectations. Smoak has yet to meet those with a .175 AVG in 114 ABs. But he is still someone to be excited about because even though he is struggling, Smoak does not appear overmatched. His K% of 21.1 is respectable and his BB% of 14.2 is very good. Additionally, Smoak carries a 25.3 LD%, which does not jibe with his .184 BABIP. The Dutton-Carty calculator thinks Smoak should have a .297 BABIP with his current stat line. Smoak is hitting in some bad luck. Grab him now and have him on your roster when the hits start falling in.