Archive for Pirates

The three murkiest closer situations — the Angels, Cardinals and Rockies — had been in something of a stalemate heading into Wednesday. Finally, one of those bullpens broke through with some clearer roles. When Blake Parker nailed down a four-out save for the Angels against the A’s on Wednesday night, he took a big step towards establishing himself as the closer, as he has now been called upon for three consecutive save situations. Better yet, he converted all three and extended his no-hit streak to 7 1/3 innings and his scoreless streak to 10 innings.

Then again, just two weeks ago, I thought Cam Bedrosian had sewn up the job after he recorded three saves in a week, and then Mike Scioscia turned to Keynan Middleton and Bud Norris for the team’s next two save chances. Parker is having a brilliant season and will be a fine closer if he is, in fact, being given the chance to hold down the job full-time. I would still like to see him get the next save chance before upgrading the Angels from red to yellow in the closer grid.
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Tony Watson’s tumultuous reign as the Pirates’ closer has come to an end. Clint Hurdle announced on Friday that he was removing Watson, who blew each of his last four save chances, from the role and handing it to Felipe Rivero and Juan Nicasio.

Why the tandem closers? Back on Wednesday, Hurdle had explained his decision to retain Watson as closer at that point, saying that he did not want to move Rivero out of a setup role, because he envisioned him as the Pirates’ answer to Andrew Miller. The Pirates’ manager also
noted that he had considered Nicasio as a possible replacement for Watson. So for the time being, Hurdle will afford himself the luxury of using his reliever with the highest average leverage index (besides Watson) in situations other than the ninth inning, since he has Nicasio as a second closing alternative. Read the rest of this entry »

On Tuesday, Tony Watson blew his third straight save opportunity, letting a two-run lead against the Orioles slip away with a Jonathan Schoop home run. On Wednesday afternoon, Pirates manager Clint Hurdle asserted that Watson was still his closer. Just hours later, Watson botched his fourth consecutive save, and this time it was a Trey Mancini two-run homer that did him in.

After Wednesday’s game, Hurdle took responsibility for the loss, telling reporters, “I make decisions. When they don’t work out, they’re on me.” Whether that means Hurdle intends to make a different decision the next time the Pirates need a closer is unclear, but it can only be a matter of time before Watson is replaced. Since May 9, the lefty has a 7.71 ERA with five blown saves in eight chances over 14 innings. Read the rest of this entry »

I don’t mean to over-hype anyone. Or maybe I do. I don’t know. I seek to provide an adequate amount of hype and keep things in perspective. That said, I’m pretty excited about Josh Bell. You may know him, you may not; he’s slated to be the Pirates’ primary first baseman, maybe with a little bit of backup outfielding thrown in. Josh Shepardson talked about him and his general skill set in November. Bell’s young and a several-time top prospect, although the highest he ever reached on any given list was MLB.com’s, at No. 34 overall prior to 2015. Nothing to sneeze at, but he never carried the same hype as, say, Yoan Moncada currently does. He’s Eric Longenhagen’s No. 50 prospect this year and KATOH’s No. 25. Knowing the gory math that goes into KATOH, I’m very partial to it. Also, all of this suggests I’m not early to any kind of party here. I’m reluctant to claim as much. I just can’t help but produce my own tributes every now and then.

Bell walked more than he struck out last year. As a rookie. That’s what gets to me. Not that it’s never been done before, and it’s not like it was a huge sample size — 153 plate appearances. I found plenty of examples in the last 25 years to compare; Bell’s rookie season is almost a dead ringer for that of Doug Mientkiewicz, a first-ballot Surname Hall of Famer but otherwise mediocre ballplayer with a decent three-year peak.

Where Bell diverges from Mientkiewicz — and everyone else, for that matter — is his hard-hit rate (Hard%). Mientkiewicz decidedly did not hit the ball hard. Among rookies since 2002 (because that’s as far back as our batted ball data from Baseball Info Solution dates) who notched at least a .130 isolated power (ISO), none hit the ball as hard as Bell. Again, small samples, but this is already a decent list to top.

When we expand the sample from rookies to all hitters in that same timeframe, things become even more interesting. Here’s a list of every hitter, in no particular order, who, in any given season, minimum 150 PAs, achieved (1) more walks than strikeouts, (2) an ISO better than .130, and (3) a hard-hit rate better than 33 percent.

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Spring training is just days away, and that’s our queue to take stock of bullpens around the majors. This is the first of six installments that will take a look at how bullpens are lining up, one division at a time. We begin with the National League Central.

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Depth chart discussions are in full swing. We are analyzing each team’s infield, outfield, rotation and bullpen components in separate segments. Catch up on the discussions here.

A couple of weeks ago, I highlighted the 10 most “MLB-ready” AAA outfield prospects based on a variety of requirements about which you can read if you click through. The idea was to ignore any kind of prospect labels and strictly let the statistics and hitters’ ages tell the story.

The list is by no means definitive, but Pirates outfielders assumed four of the 10 spots. Their projections weren’t necessarily rosy — they may all end up being bench pieces at best, for all we know — but it doesn’t negate the fact that they may be ready to positively contribute at the Major League level in some capacity. Toss into the mix top prospect Austin Meadows farther down the organizational ladder and it becomes clear that Pittsburgh has enough outfield depth throughout its system to support an ensemble cast that should be together for years to come.

Left Field: Starling Marte (Age 26)
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Episode 94

The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is now live! Jason Collette joins Eno Sarris to preview the Philadelphia Phillies and the Pittsburgh Pirates.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Thanks to Ian Miller aka Teen Archer, for the new intro music

Approximately 72 min of joyous analysis.

ADP results from NFBC

Last week I took a look at three power arm prospects who could be handling the 9th inning soon for their major league teams. In that article I profiled Detroit’s Bruce Rondon, Toronto’s Marcus Stroman and Seattle’s Carter Capps. Today I thought I’d continue with that theme by looking at a few more players with similar potential who are the property of National League organizations.

Heath Hembree, RHP, San Francisco Giants

Hembree was a 5th round pick in 2010 out of the College of Charleston – a very underrated baseball school. The South Carolina institution has had three or more players drafted every year since 2005. The school hasn’t had a player taken in the 1st round, but they have had three 2nd rounders and also saw current Yankees outfielder Brett Gardner taken in the 3rd round. Hembree was the Closer for a Cougars team that made a run to the NCAA Regional Finals his draft year. A torn right meniscus in his knee and irregular usage somewhat limited his innings in college, but he generated a lot of buzz leading up to the draft. After being picked by the Giants the fireballer then struck out 22 batters in his 11 inning short season pro debut that year. He’s largely continued that success over the last couple seasons.

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The Pirates have promoted four players this year who will play a big part in their future. How have they done so far, and what is their keeper value going forward? Below are my rankings of the four, from the best keeper to the worst.

Pedro Alvarez | 3B | First Game: June 16th
Alvarez has been mashing this week, hitting four homers in the past two days, including a grand slam on Tuesday. He has admitted that he needed to get in a groove, and it looks like he’s done it during July. His LD rate for the month is much better than it was in June, and while striking out 30% of the time isn’t good, it’s better than the 47.8% mark he put up in June. Sure, his BABIP is high this month, but he’s not a .340 hitter, either. I see Alvarez as a .275-.280 hitter who provides good pop, and that’s good enough for a spot on my roster. If you didn’t believe me on Tuesday morning, you lost out on some great games, but you can still pick him up for the rest of the season and hold onto him.

Neil Walker | 2B | First Game: May 25th
Walker has performed very well since being called up, but still has many things to work on. While his BABIP is 60 points higher than we’d expect, he’s still mashing the ball (23% line drives), leading to a .314 batting average. He hasn’t shown the power production that he had in the minors, but is continuing his recent minor league trend of stealing a couple of bases. He won’t be an empty average guy for long, and could push for your 2B slot in standard leagues next year.

Jose Tabata | OF | First Game: June 9th
Tabata’s numbers have been pretty close to our expectations, and he should only get better. His BABIP may be over the .300 mark, but should actually be 35 points higher thanks to his speed and tendency to keep the ball out of the air. He’s already flashed good speed on the basepaths, stealing 9 bases (13 attempts) in 158 plate appearance. He doesn’t strike out much, and has shown an above-average walk rate. I like him a lot as a steals guy, but I’m not a fan of keeping guys just because they can steal bases.

Brad Lincoln | SP | First Game: June 9th
I’ll be blunt; Lincoln has not been good. Not at all. He’s not striking guys out or getting ground balls, making him a sitting duck. No one has been fooled by his stuff, and he needs to go back to the minors. Not a viable keeper unless you are in the deepest of leagues.

Perhaps no player in fantasy baseball has a wider range of potential outcomes than Pirates outfielder Nyjer Morgan. A former hockey player in the Canadian Junior Leagues, Morgan is really fast and he has posted a good batting average in two limited stretches in the majors. He is in a battle for a starting job in Spring Training and there is a strong possibility he starts April as the team’s leadoff man and everyday left fielder.

If Morgan holds down the starting job all season his upside is 2003-vintage Juan Pierre. That year, Pierre hit .305, stole 65 bases and had roughly a $30 season despite hitting just one home run.

But even if Morgan wins the job in Spring Training over Steve Pearce, there’s no guarantee he holds on to the job, as Andrew McCutchen will likely join the Pirates at some point in the 2009 season and take over an everyday job in the outfield.

And there’s always the battle with Pearce, who has been a better hitter than Morgan throughout their careers in the minors and who has the power bat that teams like to see from their corner outfielders. The Pirates seem worried about Pearce’s ability to hit off-speed pitches and have hinted that he may need additional seasoning in the minors.

So, if Morgan wins the battle in Spring Training, how likely is he to keep the job?

The first thing that jumps out about Morgan is his BABIP. Last year in Pittsburgh it was .367 and that hardly seems a mark that he could maintain going forward. But Morgan has always posted high BABIPs in the minors. He makes decent contact, hits line drives, and has the tremendous speed – pretty much the exact profile of a player who can post high BABIPs.

Can Morgan supplement his average with a good OBP? He’s never had a great walk season and there is no reason to expect him to in 2009. Yet, he should be able to post an OBP of around .350 if he can hit .300, which would be borderline acceptable. For a comparison, Pierre’s OBP was .361 in 2003.

Is he a good enough fielder to hold down a corner spot with no power? While defensive ability currently has no value in fantasy baseball, in this particular case it will help determine Morgan’s playing time. He does not look like a good outfielder running routes to the ball, but his UZR numbers are through the roof. Last year, only two qualified left fielders posted a double-digit UZR/150. In 45 games last year, Morgan’s UZR/150 extrapolated to 22.4, which would have been behind only Carl Crawford among left fielders.

Does the manager seem willing to go to war with Morgan? At the end of last season, Pirates manager John Russell said, “He did some really good things. He was exciting. He really added a dimension to our offense. His missing three games is not going to affect our evaluation.” In December, MLB.com had Russell suggesting “the Pirates will start the season with Nyjer Morgan, Nate McLouth and Brandon Moss manning the outfield.”

But while all of the above might paint a rosy picture, keep in mind that his MLE from his 327 at-bats in Triple-A last year show a player with a .266/.310/.324 line. Do you place more value on 327 Triple-A at-bats or the 160 he had with the Pirates? And even if you favor the at-bats in Pittsburgh, how much faith do you have that he can maintain the ultra-high BABIP?

Morgan simply has too much volatility to be anything other than a late-round pick in most fantasy leagues. It’s near certain that some owners will fall in love with his SB potential and draft him earlier than that, especially if the Pirates announce that he’s won the job before your league drafts. But remember that McLouth and Moss are definitely above him in the pecking order and that McCutchen and Pearce (and even Craig Monroe) are looming if he stumbles.